Does anyone really think K-12 school is going to really resume before at least August?
I know it varies by state, but, in Michigan, schools are closed for another two weeks. A lot of districts have their spring break the week after that, so that makes three weeks max.
Who really believes this thing is going to have subsided by then to the point where the all clear to go back to school will be given? I mean we’ve gone from 3500 confirmed cases to over 10 times that in the last week alone.
If I had to put money on it, I think it’s damn near 100% school is done for the academic year and it’s just a matter of when they announce it.
I’d also guess it’s about a 50/50 shot that it resumes in August on time for the 20-21 year.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:21 PM ^
As a teacher, my superintendent said he highly doubts we go back from the state-wide meetings they’ve had.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:00 AM ^
Also considering that Michigan is currently 6th nationally in number of cases!
We’re ahead of heavy hitters like Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio and are within spitting distance of Illinois.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:44 AM ^
We are 6th because we are the 6th busiest state for flights to Europe and asia. NY/NJ, CA WA, FL, IL, Michigan is next in terms of people flying here from Europe and Asia. Aren’t lots of flights to Beijing or Frankfurt from Cincinnati
I'm always surprised that more people don't realize the number of international flights to and from Metro Airport.
We're also 6th because we have a lot of dumbasses to be honest.
"We're also 6th because we have a lot of dumbasses to be honest."
Especially unsupported as it is, this comes across as a rather dumbass statement. Believe me, there are many other close contenders.
Look at MGoStrength's recent comment history.
Do you realize that states aren’t testing at the same rate? These “rankings” are meaningless. Or do people seriously think that New York has more cases than the other 49 states combined?
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:24 PM ^
I just hope the Dept of Ed here in MI grants some sort of credit to those districts that have been struggling to do some type of online teaching.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:10 AM ^
The whole going to an online learning option is not nearly as cut and dried as a lot of people want to believe.
The problem is, even if you gave every single student in the state a laptop, which they can’t, you can’t assure that they’ll all have equitable access. Some won’t have wi-fi at home. Some won’t even have homes they can use it in at all.
Even though the rational thing to do would be to say teach online to the ones you can and we’ll worry about the rest later, that opens up a whole can of legal troubles for violating equal educational access laws.
There were a lot of districts who, without consulting the state, jumped the gun saying they were going right to online learning to continue the school year. Even though the intentions were good, lot of them had to quickly retract that pledge when the threat of lawsuits was waived at them.
There go lawyers ruining everything again. If there is a rational answer in a time of emergency but we can’t act it might be time to reconsider our priorities. Teach who you can, but don’t make it graded so the majority can still learn. And this is coming from someone who has 1 child that would not be able to participate online.
Someone has to hire those lawyers to file the lawsuits...
Anyway, it's a reasonable concern, given that people who are likely to lack access are often at a disadvantage for other reasons (few resources = fewer opportunities). If everyone else goes on learning, then those people get left even farther behind.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
It’s not just the lawyers, it’s the parents who are threatening the lawsuits.
I agree that they should teach to who they can, as long as it doesn’t hurt the grades of the other students. But there are lots of parents who won’t tolerate the thought of any other child getting some kind of learning their child can’t get and, legally, they are on very sound footing if they want to challenge it.
It’s not cut and dried, but we live in strange times. Governor Walz here in Minnesota shut down schools with the specific intent to equip them for online learning.
Now, it’s complicated. Keep in mind that broadband access is not just rich vs poor. A lot of kids live in rural areas that just don’t have good broadband, and they run the gamut of socio-economic positions.
But this is also a big deal. A “lost school year” is not an easy thing to absorb and would have numerous bad downstream effects.
But leaders are making stuff up as they go along and people need to cut them a little slack here. This shutdown is still less than 2 weeks old. My guess (and it’s only a guess) is that some states in areas that are less hard hit are going to launch distance learning, take some of the punches that come with inventing an entirely new process in two weeks, and adopt a hybrid model where low-access kids come to school under strict social distance requirements while kids who are able learn from those same classrooms at home. So, say, you have 20 kids learning from home, and 10 kids spread throughout a 30-kid classroom. All watching the same class. Staggered lunch breaks, strict hand washing, face masks... but, school.
But we’ll see what happens.
They’ve already announced that any online teaching/ learning won’t count towards hours so I’m guessing by that logic it can’t count for anything academically.
March 23rd, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
Yeh, the MDE Memo last week said just that (linked below.)
Our superintendent (Catholic schools) sent out a memo saying that online credit would be issued.
But you hope they can find a way to modify that stance for the public schools; why offer distance learning if there's no credit issued for students that complete assignments? (sorry if this got raised already elsewhere)
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/mde/Guidance_Instructional_Time_684374_7.pdf
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
I'm on the Board of Regents of a private HS in SW MI. We've already determined that the online courses will count for those students who participate. The faculty has established means, other than turned in homework, to determine whether students are participating or not.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
Dexter Community Schools are communicating with us parents as if things will resume April 7th, but I really don't see it. I'm fully expecting this to be the end of the school year.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:45 AM ^
Timmins be blowing up my inbox! I don’t expect I’ll be dropping my kids at Wylie anytime soon.
March 23rd, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
Lol I have a kid at Wylie too. The other one is at Creekside.
Sorry for acting like such a dick last night. Not in my right mind. These are crazy times. Also not a good week to wean my Lexapro. ?♂️
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:34 PM ^
FYI, my two cents. Not in medical field...Right now over next 7-10 days should be the worst of it if you breakdown the math/calendar of events. While it seems longer, the country has really only started to shut down for a week or so. All of the people impacted now were infected when people were living life normally. Still could be that way for another week. By 4-1, we should start getting to the point where the 14 day timeline backwards hits our shutdown period. Since we aren’t complete shutdown (Can’t leave, some places/people take it more serious than others and family can pass to family still) and test are coming more available, this won’t just go away completely. But, my thoughts are if the curve doesn’t flattened or go south the way we need it by say 4/10, then maybe this is a way bigger pandemic than we can imagine (August still having problems). However, until we reach mid April I am holding out hope that lots of the infections are coming from 10-14 days ago where we were living normal lives in every state. Hoping for some normalcy (not completely but back to working, still avoid large groups to be safe) by May.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:42 PM ^
Not commenting on the school return, but my friend at UofM hospital says they expect cases to peak this week. Which, that would be amazing.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:55 PM ^
I sincerely hope your friend is right, as this seems to contradict the opinion of every other medical expert I've heard from or talked with.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:55 PM ^
Agreed. I know it seems like the cases per day is climbing fast enough to where you want to believe it’ll peak soon.
But the 8500 or so it’s at today is really a small number for a country the size of the US. Especially given how little testing has been available.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:23 AM ^
Don't know if she meant UofM's cases specifically, Michigan, or nationally. I'd assume the three wouldn't peak at drastically different times, but who knows.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:36 PM ^
That would be beyond amazing.
I wouldn't expect the cases nationally to peak this week, but the numbers are going to slow down from the mere fact the two largest populations centers in the U.S. are essentially no longer testing.
Maybe they have special knowledge. But most national and international authorities are pretty clear that the outbreak is likely to peak throughout April and perhaps into May before hopefully retreating -- and even then only if more dumbshit Americans starting taking the pandemic more seriously. Talking to you, Rush!
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:52 PM ^
Your timeline is very optimistic. If you look at Italy, they've been on lockdown about 10-12 days now (the whole country, not just parts of it like in the U.S.) and their number of cases has continued to increase - only the rate of increase is slowing. They finally saw a decrease today in new cases relative to yesterday, but it still was their second largest-day, and the decrease from yesterday might just be noise. This is a lengthy process.
Social distancing absolutely makes a difference but it's a gradual difference, not something you'll notice right off the bat.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^
Italy has botched this on epic levels. I have family in Italy that say people have been gathering around the town piazza like it’s no biggy. Which sounds similar to the sights we saw in NYC yesterday with everyone just hanging in the park.
Italy's biggest struggle has also been they’re an aging population, making it even more of a dramatic impact
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:02 PM ^
They sure have made mistakes - but they've gone further, nationwide, than all but three U.S. states (to date) have. There still are spring breakers partying in parts of Florida. So to expect our country to flatten our curve faster than them . . . is doubtful.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:03 AM ^
On Feb. 1st, Florence Italy had "Hug a Chinese Tourist Day"...no seriously...they did:
https://kprcradio.iheart.com/featured/the-pursuit-of-happiness/content/2020-03-20-on-february-1st-florence-italy-celebrated-hug-a-chinese-day/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQsoh
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:10 AM ^
I read that Italy has also struggled with the regular flu for several years now, with significantly above average mortality rates. The US is likely better positioned to deal with this than Italy. That doesn’t mean we won’t struggle with it, I’m just not sure that Italy is going to be a very useful comparison.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:11 AM ^
The US response hasn’t exactly been a sterling example either.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:16 PM ^
But, my thoughts are if the curve doesn’t flattened or go south the way we need it by say 4/10, then maybe this is a way bigger pandemic than we can imagine (August still having problems).
There is no way it will be going south by then, that's far too early. It might be flat-ish by then. The country has been enforcing measures in a very piecemeal fashion and there is still significant interaction even in "locked down" states ("essential stores" are still open). You seem to be expecting China-type results, when we are not imposing the same measures as China, but watered down versions of them.
There also is the very real issue of people infecting their families, given the close contact caused by these measures. The fact that we aren't testing many people increases this possibility.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:55 PM ^
School is done for this year, and should be. The College Board is dramatically altering AP exams (turning them into 45 minute online exams and removing whole units of material) rather than trying to push them back because they know those exams can't realistically be given before June, if then. As a teacher I'm still trying to figure out how to teach my classes (this was our Spring Break anyway), but considering that I teach mostly seniors I think I'm just kidding myself.
The rate of positive tests is still about 35% increase per day, and that's been fairly consistent on average for a while now. Considering that the rate of testing is still lagging way behind, I don't think there's any reason to think we're near a peak. Unless the peak you're talking about is maximum rate of increase, but that's a very test-dependent number, so it's hard to know. Considering that a ton of asymptomatic people are walking around, able to infect others, without knowing that they are carrying coronavirus because they haven't been tested, this could go on for a while.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:41 PM ^
Here in San Diego, I am not expecting school to resume at all for this calendar year. For fall, I have no clue and don’t think anyone does until at least a month or so from now. The virus is expected to peak here later than the east coast, mid to end of June.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:49 PM ^
Curious why and who says mid June? Viruses spread by contact, being around people. California just issued a shutdown. Why would it just be June as to when it would be the worst? Only shutdown couple weeks, go back to normal and round 2 hits harder? Just curious your thoughts.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:43 PM ^
I've stopped forecasting this shit. Been wrong too many times.
March 23rd, 2020 at 12:50 AM ^
If only you had an intelligence briefing before all this...
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:45 PM ^
You'll have a better idea in about about 2 weeks, because that's when it will become clear whether forced isolation measures has resulted in a decline in number of new cases daily.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:51 PM ^
Bingo. This is the way I see it. Maybe add a 3rd week for the possible people who were slow to take this serious.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:38 PM ^
But the problem is, even if the numbers are declining in a few weeks, you don’t want to say “all clear, back to school” and open it up to where they can climb again.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:49 PM ^
But the problem is, even if the numbers are declining in a few weeks, you don’t want to say “all clear, back to school” and open it up to where they can climb again.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:49 PM ^
School is done for 19-20. No doubt about it.
As for your second question, I've been joking with my U of M freshman son that he might as well transfer to University of Phoenix, given that I think it's 50/50 that he goes back to Ann Arbor in the fall.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:49 PM ^
Kansas has already ended its school year and other states are publicly mulling the idea. I would be surprised at this point if we come back this year. If we do, it will probably be just a token end to the year, like a week or two.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:50 PM ^
I think this school year is toast. Korea and China seems to be getting their hands around the problem, so you would think the US should be sometime soon as well (even though there are numerous differences the three countries' approaches). I would think life should be back to normal in summer sometime, but I'm just an average joe
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:54 PM ^
No way are the kids going back to school before the fall. When I ventured out to the stores yesterday most people were behaving as if nothing was happening.
Standing too close to each other, not wearing gloves, touching things and then putting them back on the shelves, etc.
The infection rate may slow a bit, but unless everyone starts taking this seriously and staying home, we are in it for the long haul.
March 22nd, 2020 at 10:56 PM ^
Mrs The Fugitive teaches at a private school so fortunately they can operate differently than the public schools with how they handle their online learning so her students will move on to the next grade. She's uploading daily YT videos for her students for multiple subjects and communicating with them via Zoom, FaceTime, Skype, etc and emailing with parents.
Anyway, I don't think they're coming back this year. Hopefully in August/September but I wouldn't be surprised if they started later and had fewer half days and long weekends.
My kids are at private schools. My high shooler gets daily assignments and the 2 middle schoolers get new ones every other day. The school sent an email Thursday or Friday after whoever announced that any online work at public schools wouldn't count and assured us that our kids aren't working their asses off for nothing. All of this they're doing is counting.
March 22nd, 2020 at 11:10 PM ^
There is a joint teleconference call with Whitmer, Mea, and the State Superintendent tomorrow morning, that teachers can join as well. I think that will be a indicator of what is going to happen next. If I had to bet, we are done for the year.