Completely superstitious and not-at-all rational take about the College Football Playoff rankings.
I remember hearing a stat a few years ago from ESPN saying the team that starts the initial CFP rankings in 3rd place NEVER makes the playoff. I took a look to see if it still holds water and this is what I've found:
3rd Place Team by year (other team/teams that also didn't make the playoff) -
2021: Michigan State (Oregon 4th)
2020: Clemson (ONLY YEAR ALL 4 TEAMS MADE IT TO THE PLAYOFF)
2019: Alabama (Penn State 4th)
2018: LSU
2017: Notre Dame
2016: Michigan (Texas A&M 4th)
2015: Ohio State (LSU 2nd)
2014: Auburn (Mississippi State 1st (???), Ole Miss 4th) -- This one makes absolutely no sense.
As you can see, 3rd place is not the place you want to be when the season's first CFP rankings are released. The only team to make it to the playoff from 3rd place in the initial rankings was Clemson in 2020. This year they will be released on Tuesday, November 1st. That is the Tuesday after Michigan plays MSU and Ohio goes to Penn State that weekend. If everything goes as planned and the current top 4 remain unbeaten then I think the rankings will remain as they are now, 1 Alabama, 2 Georgia, 3 Ohio, 4 Michigan.
This has not at all been a complete waste of time to write up while I'm at work and you didn't waste your time reading it. You're welcome! :D
Rankings Archive: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx?year=2014
September 19th, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
I took a look at Mississippi State's schedule in 2014 to try to get a sense as to why the committee felt like they deserved the top spot. SEC bias notwithstanding, turns out MSU was pretty damn good that year, beating 8th ranked LSU in Lousiana, 6th ranked Texas A&M, and 2nd ranked Auburn. They beat the latter 2 by double digits. Their only losses in the regular season were 25-20 @ 5 Alabama and 31-17 @ 19 Ole Miss.
They did lose to GaTech in the Orange Bowl 49-34 but that could have been a let down after not making it to the playoff. We saw that in 2016/17 with our own Wolverines losing to FSU in the Orange Bowl. Hard to say without digging deeper.
That was Dak Prescott's 2nd to last year at MSU, for what it's worth.
September 19th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
I'm gonna go ahead and say it wasn't a let down that led to the loss to FSU. It had a LOT to do with losing Peppers 5 minutes before the kick and replacing him with a true freshmen. Then, still in the first quarter, losing the Mackey winner to a (virtually) career ending knee injury didn't help anything. Yet still, that team regained the lead with less than a minute left. Save for a comically missed tackle at the 10 yd line on the kickoff, Michigan wins that game.
I maintain that it was the best game I've seen Harbaugh coach on the Michigan sidelines.
September 19th, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^
Do you really think that was a better coached game than the OSU game last year? That one felt absolutely perfect
September 19th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^
I'd throw in 2017 OSU, when he came up with a brilliant gameplan that John O'Korn just couldn't fully execute.
September 19th, 2022 at 3:32 PM ^
With special guest Josh "Martellus" Metellus dropping the easiest INT in the history of the world.
:(
September 19th, 2022 at 5:41 PM ^
I really don’t think we talk about 2016 enough. I get the pain (not an unreasonable excuse) but there’s no reason to list 2016 behind any Harbaugh year other than 2021.
As for that OSU game’s significance and the outcome’s pain, a half-decade and the returning championship we carry are reasonable salves.
We were as deserving that year as OSU (or PSU, who won the Big Ten) for the playoff. We lost to the former by a literal inch and blew out the latter.
That one inch went on to define too much of Harbaugh’s first six years. I’m just grateful that he’s a sufficiently excellent coach to overcome the hole** that put us in and get us back on top.
**(media vibes and recruiting diminished at least two levels and it happened fast)
Not everyone can stumble like that, get passed multiple times over, bury the resentment, toughen up, and earn back the marathon’s lead for even a minute.
2016 was a nearly-impeccable team. And our manner of losing really shattered us for a while. Across my lifetime to-date, that loss was the most consequential I may ever remember/read and, going forward, it will be wickedly tough to experience heftier football consequences.
But my point stands. In 2016, Michigan was a CFB-level program. From Hoke to that in Harbaugh’s second year. And everyone (the world, this fan base included) seemed to just … forget it.
September 19th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
The 2006 loss to OSU... man what happened with the next few games is just crazy.
-Lose Bo
-Prove to everyone that you are within inches of beating #1 team on the road. Is there really a better case to be #2?
-Lose to USC
-Beat by App State
-Crushed by Oregon
That loss of inches changed our entire programs direction. Just like 2016 but so much more lingering effects.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
I don’t know that last year was necessarily a “well coached” game schematically. It was more par for the course.
Michigan did you OSU what they had done to opponents all year, pound the rock behind the best run blocking OL in the country and let HutchJabo get after the QB.
I don’t recall much of anything that stuck out to me where you credit the coaching other than continuing to run when it was evident OSU couldn’t stop the run.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
Our opening TD was a great call. One week after unleashing Edwards in the passing game against Maryland, we faked the flair to him, which drew away the OSU LBs, then handed off to Hemming out of the Statue of Liberty for an easy TD.
There was also the drive where we put in the JJ package and broke tendency by throwing a fly pattern out of play action (complete for a big gain), and then on the next play put in Cade and ran a flea flicker (also complete). The OSU D was a shell-shocked mess after that and we steamrolled them the rest of the way.
September 19th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
Also the 2nd half JJ package that got us down the field for Haskins'...3rd score? And also the flea flicker. Always the flea flicker. But also the game plan defensively - yes once we got the lead we just ran the ball like we said we would, and a big way we got the lead was by running the ball, but defensively we forced 2 punts to start the second half and then slowed down the unstoppable Buckeye offense as they bled clock. Sure they scored the points but they lost the game. I feel like the game plan deserves credit.
September 19th, 2022 at 6:23 PM ^
Right but that was largely stuff we had done all year. We were in a competition with MSU to see who could run more flea flickers. JJ had packages in virtually every game all year. It was certainly a good gameplan but I don’t think it was out of the ordinary from what we saw all of last year.
I did like the defensive gameplan in general but I don’t think Harbaugh gets credit for that.
September 19th, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
It was a game where I was glad it was Ryan Day and not urban.
Urban Nebraska would have split us like a pistachio with treyvon. Day was born on 3rd base and played like it. He always wants to justify the Ferrari that he is driving. This is a similarity between harbaugh and meyer I have taken. Both would win either way, but they'd both rather drive dump trucks to get there. Maybe dump trucks with jet engines, but something about that dump truck..
I don't know if we win or lose that game if Urban is the coach bc michigan played an amazing game, but that's just how the vibes have went for me every time that I have watched it.
I would rather face 50 passes, even if 30 were to the absolutely amazing JSN than 50 rushes from treyvon in a meyer offense.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:14 PM ^
I hadn't noticed that missed tackle on the 10yd line so I went back to watch it. Oof...that was one of the worst I've ever seen. Then on the very next play, we missed another that gave up a big gain. But what really irked me, was that we had 3 TOs at the end of the game and did we bother taking any on defense to give us a shot? Nope--Harbaugh let the clock tick down on one play 30+ seconds and then FSU (!!!) took their TO. We ended up getting the ball back with 36 secs and 3 TOs, like it even mattered at that point. Three TOs to save 36 seconds but wouldn't use 1 to save 30 secs...
Damn, it was 6 years ago and now I'm mad about it again. LOL.
September 19th, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
MSU's rank was entirely SEC bias! The rankings of the teams MSU beat were all inflated by that bias. LSU, TAMU, and Auburn all ended up 8-5. In other words, THEY ALL SUCKED even when MSU beat them, despite their overblown rankings at the time.
September 19th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
But rarely has a team been as "tough" as OSU.
/s
September 19th, 2022 at 4:30 PM ^
I remember stories of a team down in Florida who could outhit any opponent you put in front of them
September 19th, 2022 at 2:06 PM ^
Thank you! I appreciate not having my time wasted by this very useful information.
September 19th, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
I enjoyed the post...not a waste of time :)
September 19th, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
That's interesting.
I'm pretty sure that no team ever made the CFP when beginning the season unranked in both the AP and Coaches polls...until last year.
Just win, baby! Go Blue!
September 19th, 2022 at 2:54 PM ^
Yup, and I imagine no other teams will pull that off in the 4-team era. Once we expand to 12, I could easily see unranked G5 teams who win their conference doing that.
This year, the only real candidates for this feat may be Penn State or App State if they run the table.
*whoops, scratch App State. Thought they were undefeated. Yeah, it's gotta be Penn State, Coastal Carolina or Tulane but those later 2 would need the perfect season and then some
September 19th, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
App State would need a borderline miracle for the CFP --- it seems like people think they are undefeated, but they aren't. Have a home loss to UNC.
G5 teams won't get any benefit of the doubt --- I don't think they have a chance unless UNC goes 13-0. Even then they would need help.
September 19th, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
Assuming no 2007 like chaos this season, no non-undefeated G5 will has a shot to make it in. And there's currently only 3 undefeated G5 teams. Tulane, Coastal Carolina, and James Madison. None of them are currently ranked, and James Madison is ineligible for the postseason until 2024.
September 19th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
PSU is going to beat OSU simply to destroy your plan. Enjoy being ranked number 3! MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
September 19th, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^
I realize your name gives away your bias but I have to say, it wouldn't surprise me. PSU has beaten OSU in the past under similar conditions and with similar talent disparities. Also the universe still hates Michigan football until it doesn't.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
Man now I'm worried about TWO penn state games this year
September 19th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
Actually, as I think further. If PSU loses to U-M but beats OSU: U-M may be ranked #1 (or at least #2) in the first rankings.
A victory over a (theoretically) 7-1 PSU might be the best single win anyone in the country would have as of November 1st.
Tough luck for #3 Alabama in that situation! MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Tide fans!
September 19th, 2022 at 6:18 PM ^
It's so beautiful to see a sentiment the whole country can rally behind.
:sniffle:
September 19th, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
I would take that anytime even with historic voodoo going against UM. Fuck OSU.
September 19th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^
Thought it would be interesting to see where that initial third place team ended up in the final rankings.
- 2014: Auburn (10th)
- 2015: Ohio State (7th)
- 2016: Michigan (6th)
- 2017: Notre Dame (14th) → haha
- 2018: LSU (11th)
- 2019: Alabama (13th)
- 2020: Clemson (2nd)
- 2021: Michigan State (10th)
September 19th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
Good point. Didn't think about that.
September 19th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
Correlation without Causation. The opposite of what sports websites, channels, and podcasts want you to believe exists.
For the first time since Lincoln was president, we have 11 QBs who have thrown more than 100 passes while not rushed for 99 yards, but thrown 18 touchdowns. So YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS!!!!!
Nothing.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
It means that You Don’t Get The Show?
September 19th, 2022 at 4:12 PM ^
Sure, Mr. Smarty Pants. Next thing you'll probably tell me that higher numbers of Nicholas Cage movies per year does not cause people to fall in a pool and drown.
Or that the marriage rate in Kentucky is completely unrelated to drowning deaths while fishing.
September 20th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
No. Those are 100% true. Anyone can see that the lines look the same. Its basically the same shit. Drowning in a pool and Nicholas Cage related events are essentially the same.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
You must be a lot of fun at parties.
September 19th, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
you now have me slightly worried if OSU gets upset (completely plausible in beaver stadium) and we win back pauly
instead of reveling in a glorious weekend, i'll now be worried and hoping we somehow jump to #2 or that USC overtakes us to #3
September 19th, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
September 19th, 2022 at 6:26 PM ^
Georgia is number 1 now, not Alabama.
September 19th, 2022 at 6:55 PM ^
Statistically, if you assume the #1 always makes it, then the remaining, just randomly, would have a 33% of making it.
In your sample, 1/7 times 3rd place made it, so 14%.
14% and 33% are really not that far off. If 3rd place made it this year that goes up to 25%. Next two years up to 33%.
September 20th, 2022 at 1:52 AM ^
Sorry bro, but this would be a whole lot cooler if Clemson didn't make the playoffs in 2020.