College Football Nerds Michigan-Penn State Preview is up
I've followed them for years and have always enjoyed their content. They're a great unbiased channel, and I highly recommend checking them out. They also do a live show every Saturday at 10pm EST that's a treat.
Spoiler: They split on who they think will win, but both expect a really low scoring game.
I feel like it's hard to pick against Michigan here given history between Harbaugh and Franklin. I also expect both teams to put up points 🤷♂️. Regardless, I really wouldn't be surprised by any outcome except a Penn State blowout given how little we still know about both teams.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
I don't think this will be a low scoring game for some reason. I see this as a 28-24 game
October 11th, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^
to denard robinson that's a low scoring game
October 12th, 2022 at 12:12 AM ^
For what it’s worth they were scrutinizing the O/U being 52.5 and that would be under, which is what they think they hit.
I think maybe we have a Big Ten bias on what’s low scoring
October 11th, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
They can't defend the pass. And their running D stats are inflated by playing running-inept teams. They've seen nothing like our OL. JJ passes for 400. Blake+Donovan rush for 150. We win by 4+ scores.
45–13 sounds about right.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
700+ yards of total offense. That's quite a lot.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
I'm sure/assuming that it's supposed to be 150 yards of total rushing between Corum and Edwards, totaling 550 yards of offense. Still a lot, but not insane, like 700 yards is.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^
550 yards at 75 yards per drive is 7 touchdowns... I don't think Penn State is that week!
October 11th, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
No they are this week! :)
October 11th, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
I wanted to edit it, but there is no 'strike through' option for the font!
October 12th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
Weak excuse.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
6TDs and a FG, if you look at the score...
It's more of a function of our strength than their weakness. Mediocrity on their part is all it will take.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
They are 12th in the country in defensive yards per passing attempt - total yardage skews the story
October 11th, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^
PSU has played pass happy teams. Most of their opponents are near the top of "Pass attempts per game" (Purdue 11th, Ohio 21st, CMU 6th, Northwestern 7th.) No team has faced as many pass attempts/game as PSU (45.2 attempts faced/game.)
Despite facing more pass attempts per game than any team, they still rank quite well in pass defense stats such as passer rating (7th), yards/attempt (12th), and completion % (3rd).
October 11th, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^
Those three stats don't have anything to do with the number of attempts they've faced.
The fact that teams like Ohio, CMU and Northwestern pass the ball a lot doesn't mean that they are difficult to defend. They pass a lot because they're bad teams that keep falling behind a lot.
Purdue is the only of those worth paying attention to. The PSU pass defense was really nothing special in that game. Purdue moved the ball despite having not much of a run game.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
They've faced a ton of passes because all of those teams are awful at rushing - Purdue is the best running team of the group and they're 93rd in the country at 3.8 ypc. And outside of Ohio at 8.6 ypa none of them are particularly efficient throwing the ball (all others are under 7 ypa). And I'd argue Ohio's numbers are misleading because they basically ragdolled Fordham and winless-against-FBS Akron for those numbers passing. Plus, we're not even talking about Auburn, an abysmal offensive team that has looked terrible basically all year.
I get that UM is a bit of an unknown having played a nothing schedule this far but PSU is in the same boat and thus reading anything into their raw stats is an exercise on salt measuring.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
It would be nice if it was a blow out. And if it is, Michigan would probably be moved back to 4 in the AP poll.
I looked up Penn Sts pass defense, because up till now I hadn't. Here's all Michigan's opponents so far, and their pass defense rankings now. But Penn St always seems to play over their heads when they play Michigan, also Ohio St. BTW, Illinois is at #2.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
I love your optimism but I will be shocked if either team surpasses 500 total yards.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:56 PM ^
If thats the case the pollsters will move us from 5th to 5th! Georgia will struggle vs Vanderbilt at home and move back into the #1 slot with a Bama loss and Tenn will move to #1.5 taking over Bamas spot.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:02 PM ^
ANN ARBOR
BEAT
CAT
October 11th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
A = Always
B = Be
C = Closing
Always be closing
October 11th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
Can anybody play?
A = Ann Arbor
B = Beats
C = Columbus
October 11th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
A = JoePa
B = Knew.
C = F Penn State!
October 11th, 2022 at 6:36 PM ^
Great scene. One of the few good Alec Baldwin roles.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:54 PM ^
If you can’t close the leads you’re given, then you can’t close shit! You are shit! Hit the bricks, pal!
October 11th, 2022 at 8:01 PM ^
I liked him in The Hunt for Red October and Beetlejuice - back when he was young before his arrogance bloomed.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:17 AM ^
True that. I’d also add before he doubled his body size.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:02 PM ^
Re-watched that movie the other day as I didnt remember much except that scene you shared. Its a great movie but as I watched it again I thought these actors arent playing sales people these are "fantastic actors" really trying to one up each other with their solo acts. Each one more over the top than the last one. The language they used to talk to each other is just ridiculous. Most of the time it really doesnt even make sense. It was fun though and again they are fantastic actors.
Watch when Ed Harris grand stands his parts they are so over the top he cant even make eye contact. You dont tell someone to eff off 10x while looking at your shoes. And I love Ed Harris.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
Michigan 31 - Penn State 20
October 11th, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
...with a heavy dose of angst throughout the game.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:02 PM ^
Yeah, angst is one thing I'll predict confidently—and anxiously.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
All of the angst evaporated after Indiana. Go Blue!!
October 11th, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
My model says Michigan 35-19.
On their other preview video for Bama/Tenn their model predicts Tenn 37- Bama 28...that seems seems significantly off to me.
My model says Bama 36 - Tenn 27.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
Without Young, that could happen.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
The issue with our model is that it has to account for two games now without Bryce Young. And Alabama's offensive efficiency is really struggling, especially influenced from the last game. It's really a matter of how much you want to assume Young comes back, and how healthy he'll be.
Unless the road freakouts happen again to Alabama, if Young is healthy they definitely will score in the 30s or 40s.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
Are you weighting more recent games heavier than early season? Bama's offense has been very efficient all year even if it was less than their standard last game. Even when they were obviously one-dimensional with the QB arm-punting last game they still put 288 on the ground against an average SEC defense.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:09 PM ^
If Bama has to start their second stringer they are in serious trouble. Vols should win this game. #TeamChaos
October 11th, 2022 at 7:50 PM ^
I used to have a model. She was very hard to keep happy.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
Really? I never thought so.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
Penn State has gone on the road and gotten 2 big road wins (even if Auburn is the equivalent of Michigan State this year, still a good win). Feels similar to Michigan last year - going to Wisconsin and Penn State and getting big road wins. They are going to be confident coming into this game.
We are going to learn a lot about Michigan this week.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
Auburn is similar to Iowa (where we also went on the road). Purdue is very similar to Maryland. Indiana is probably better than their dregs they played but splitting hairs at that point. Wild card is they are coming off a bye and they seem completely healthy.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^
Their bye week is definitely an important factor. James Franklin is good for at least one sneaky trick against us every year even if it blows up in his face, you just KNOW that he spent the whole off week scheming up all kinds of stuff to throw at us
October 11th, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
LOL Frames is good for at least two trick plays against UofM because he sucks.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
Their bye week is definitely an important factor.
IMO, I think the importance of bye weeks is sometimes overstated. Under Franklin, PSU is actually only 3-6 following an open date, and 1-2 against Michigan in that scenario. Conversely, Michigan under Harbaugh is 5-2 following a bye and 1-0 versus PSU.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
So this is the fourth time that they've had a bye before playing us under Franklin? And we've only had it once in that same time? How does that happen?
October 11th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
So this is the fourth time that they've had a bye before playing us under Franklin? And we've only had it once in that same time?
That is correct.
How does that happen?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
October 11th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
Generally agree on the confidence point --- Clifford isn't as mercurial as Trace McSorley was, but he has a fairly good history in recent road games.
His last 5 road games --- Auburn, Purdue (both 2022), Michigan State (terrible pass defense but also in the snow), Maryland, Ohio State (2021) --- he's a combined 63%, 7.9 YPA, 11 TD, 2 INT. One of those INTs was the bad Pick 6 vs Purdue, but conversely he led the winning drive that game too.
None of the above is great, but I don't think he's particularly susceptible to a poor performance in a tough road environment (e.g., what McSorley put up @ U-M in 2018). He had multiple-INT road games at Iowa earlier in 2021, and also at Minnesota in 2019, but those games are arguably a decent distance in the rear view mirror at this point.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^
Clifford gets ragged on a bit too much and he's a solid QB but his home/road splits so seem to fluctuate a lot based on the quality of defense he's facing. Last year against UW he struggled, and same against Iowa before being injured. He hasn't really faced a good defense since Iowa unless you want to read much into Arkansas's 27th ranked defense in the bowl game, in which case he also looked bad there.
I think he'll play well in this game but if PSU struggles pass blocking for what feels like the billionth year under Franklin it could be a tough game for him.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^
We are going to learn a lot about Michigan this week.
Unless we win. Then it will turn out that PSU sucks and we learned nothing.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:10 AM ^
It would be a major win for Penn State to beat Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. Jim hasn't lost a home game to anyone other than MSU or OSU (excluding the covid year)
October 11th, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
This should be a game where both defenses come out looking a little lackluster due to not really facing a quality offense to this point, maybe something like a 24-20 halftime score. Then M’s Defense should tighten up again like they did this past weekend and open the gap a bit.
Final: Michigan 35 PSU 27