I honestly think it's about time we give Purdue some props. They're 15-3 which is hard to do regardless of schedule. Also, their schedule is not all that horrible, and they beat MSU.
I am pulling hard for Minnesota, but if Purdue goes 17-3, they earned that B1G title fair and square
Yea. I called it a while back before the PSU loss (PU wins regular season and M finishes a 2-3 seed in the NCAAs). M and MSU had a tough remaining schedule and PU is a good team with a relatively cake schedule. I am not surprised how this regular season ended up.
Per KenPom, Purdue's conference schedule is 10th of 14 in the Big Ten. It's basically equal to MSU's -- there's a .01 difference -- and both are considerably more difficult than Michigan's, which is the easiest in the conference -- helped largely by being the only team in the conference not to have to play Michigan, of course. :). (That actually explains the weakness for each of the top teams -- PSU's schedule is brutal because they're not very good -- and they managed to get double-plays against 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference).
Is that based on games played to date or including the rest of the schedule? Because if it's based on games to date, those numbers are going to change pretty significantly by Sunday.
Games played to date, but I don't think it will change that significantly on Sunday. The SOS number he uses is the AdjEM of the team that would be expected to go .500 against that team's schedule. It's designed to keep extreme outliers from affecting the rating too much -- Gonzaga doesn't get to pull up the WCC's schedule strength all by itself, basically.
So, the question of "who would go 9.5-9.5 against Michigan's first 19 games" may not be that different from "who would go 10-10 against Michigan's 20?"
Put it this way: the schedule difficultly went up by about 1 AdjEM rating point over the last six games, which included Wisconsin, @PSU, @Minny, MSU, and a home-and-home with Maryland. Michigan is still about 0.25 AdjEM behind the 13th place team (Iowa).
That's helpful, thanks. I was thinking that Michigan's schedule difficulty should get a boost from the MSU game just because there are maybe a couple teams nationally that would be favored in that game on KenPom, whereas Purdue gets a significantly easier Northwestern, albeit on the road, so that gap should close somewhat, but it's hard to move the needle much after 20 games.
I guess it surprises me that four of our five single plays in conference are against teams that are under .500, and our schedule is rated as "easy," but it is what it is.
Single plays Purdue at home, an at Iowa, both over 500.
My bad, four of our six are under .500. By comparison, Purdue has three single plays over .500 (us, Iowa, and Wisconsin). What helps Purdue's SOS is that two of those were road games.
At the end of the day, the 20-game schedule means that the differences in schedule are much smaller than in the past. We now see more than half of our conference opponents twice, which is a vast improvement on the previous system.
No problem. :)
Quick update after tonight's games -- Purdue went up about 0.14 or so with the game at Minnesota; MSU dropped about 0.50 by playing Nebraska at home.
The important thing to remember is that these are all relative. The Big Ten is really good this year, and there aren't really any terrible teams. The toughest schedule is currently +19.00; that's PSU. The weakest is Michigan's at +16.16. That says that a team with a +19.00 AdjEM -- Villanova is +19.01 at #27 in KenPom -- would be expected to go .500 against PSU's schedule. Against Michigan's "easy" schedule, you have to drop down to... #37 Syracuse (+16.12) to find a team that would be expected to go .500. That's not that big of a difference, and is pretty much saying "the Big Ten plays a relatively balanced schedule."
Some comparisons: Last year's numbers ranged from +11.42 for MSU's cakewalk schedule to +15.34 for Maryland's toughest slog. So, every single team this year is facing a more daunting task than every single team last year. Also, in the Big 12, the schedules range from +18.38 for OSU to +14.84 for Texas Tech -- this, despite the fact that the league plays a double round-robin. They'll tighten up a little bit by the end of the week, but this is just reiterating the point: the best teams in the conference play the weakest schedule because they don't have to play against themselves.
We were all present for the Purdue game at Crisler. Purdue has no business in the same conversation as M.
One game does not a season make. Purdue is playing much better now than they were in December.
Purdue also got ran off the floor against MSU, and then Purdue returned the favor.
A lot has changed since December.
Hope we get the opportunity to spank Purdue again in the tourney.
As our favorite guy likes to say it’s a make or miss game.
Purdue hitting their open threes, Minnesota missing theirs.
Still very early and Purdue has a four point lead. Would love to see Murphy get involved here and get some fouls on Haarms.
Traveon Williams has not had a great last five possessions.
Gophers getting a home whistle.
duke down by 10. this is good.
nebraska mounting a tiny comeback maybe? go huskers.
minny up by 1 over purdue. go gophers.
ROW THE BOAT!!!
Gophers playing decently but need to take advantage of miscues more. Opportunity to go up 4 or 5 after the under 8 timeout.
some weird guys hitting 3s for nebraska against sparty tonight
Dammit Akinten. Misses a wide open three and then probably takes a really dumb flagrant one.
MSU makes both FTs, then a three, and it's back up to 14 when Nebraska had a great look to cut it to six the prior possession.
Amir Coffey doing work tonight.
Coffey is impressive tonight. Aggressive and confident.
Party on, Wayne! Party on, Garth!
And Party on, Coffey.
Rooting for Minnesota is exhausting.
They've got some dudes but they do so much dumb stuff.
True, but those dudes-who-do-dumb-stuff are up by 10 at the half.
Oh I'm liking it overall they're just so damn poorly coached on offense.
Pitino probably deserves more credit than we give him for how those guys compete though.
That was a bullshit charge call. Huge flop.
Agreeing with Richard Pitino just feels dirty.
Actually hoping it stays close in the first half. I never trust a big halftime lead in the Big Ten. It's annoyingly consistent that you will see a comeback in the 2nd.
That's... not really how these things work. :)
Dang big bucket by Eiffert.
Still, Gophers up 10 at the half.
Wake is collapsing. Darn.
Duke is not a well coached team. So much talent yet they’re struggling against Wake Forest
HOLY FCK
That was agonizing.
I thought Wake's player got fouled on the rebound, which is why he bobbled it and was probably why he missed the shot.
Coach K cashes in another one of his chips with the devil...
OK, you go make a game-winning shot at Cameron Indoor.
Kid was rushed; it looked like he was trying to make sure he got a chance to win plus a chance at an offensive rebound, and it almost worked. No need to rub salt in his wound.
Looked like that was the play drawn up.
If you'd blamed the coach, instead of the player, I wouldn't have downvoted you.
Honestly, on the road at Duke I'm assuming the refs are going to let the defender maul me if I'm driving to the rim. A well-designed 3 is a good shot and looked like what they drew up. It just wasn't executed great.
Oh, damn. Last play of that Wake Forest-Duke game.
How did that not go in the hole?
I'm not sure he got the shot off in time anyway, but that was a hell of an effort by Wake. Also, Duke is going to get upset in the tournament. They jack up a ton of threes but only make 30.8% of them, making them #329 in the country in that stat. It just takes one off shooting night, with rebounds that don't bounce the right way, and they're done. Hell, they shot above their season average tonight and were inches from losing to one of the worst teams in a power 5 conference at home. There are only two MAC teams with a worse KenPom ranking than Wake, and that's including tonight's game.
Man I feel sick for Wake Forest. It would have been amazing to shut up that student section.
Fucking Duke.....
Really hope Zion somehow doesn’t come back for the tournament. If he does, I think they win it all.....
I know it doesn’t work this way but I’d much rather have Purdue lose than have Duke lose tonight.
Minnesota going to have to match Purdue’s aggression going forward.
HO LEE FUC
I hope Zion doesn't come back, Duke is nowhere near the same team without him.