Checking in on the 2018 Recruiting Class
The 2018 class was originally seen as one of the low points of Harbaugh's coaching career here. There were some notable guys that we were in on that didn't commit, and it was by far the worst ranked class during his time here, coming in at no.22 nationally.
However going through that class, I'm actually surprised by how many promising players were in it. A lot of guys significantly outperformed their recruiting ranking. I'm willing to say this might even end up being a solid class.
- Aiden Hutchinson (National Rank: 112)
NOTES: Solid starter as a Sophomore. Looks like an NFL player
VERDICT: HIT
- Cameron McGrone (National Rank: 118)
NOTES: Got some solid run last year, looked like the next Bush at times
VERDICT: HIT
- Mustapha Muhammad (National Rank: 168)
NOTES: Got big, transferred to somewhere, now has possible legal issues
VERDICT: Big Miss
- Myles Sims (National Rank: 170)
NOTES: Drew early disappointment comments from coaches, transferred to Georgia Tech
VERDICT: Miss
- Joe Milton (National Rank: 204)
NOTES: Supposedly made a big jump and surprisingly won the QB job
VERDICT: Too early to tell, but early returns are promising
- Jalen Mayfield (National Rank: 268)
NOTES: Good tackle, possible 1st round pick
VERDICT: HIT
- Ryan Hayes (National Rank: 335)
NOTES: Played some last year as a RS Freshman, didn’t look out of place
VERDICT: Likely Hit
- Gemon Green (National Rank: 382)
NOTES: I’m likely mixing him up with his brother. Supposedly talked about this camp
VERDICT: Too early to tell, but likely depth player
- Christian Turner (National Rank: 508)
NOTES: Showed some promise, but fumble issues caused him to fall in the depth chart.
VERDICT: Likely miss
- Taylor Upshaw (National Rank: 561)
NOTES: Didn’t have a butt and now has a butt
VERDICT: Will need to see some booty pics to get an accurate verdict
- Sammy Faustin (National Rank: 592)
NOTES: Hasn’t played, but has drawn raves this camp, enough that Hill might play CB
VERDICT: Too early to tell, but early returns promising
- Ben VanSumeren (National Rank: 624)
NOTES: Freakishly ripped, got some plays last year, now drawing praise as a LB
VERDICT: Too early to tell, but early returns promising
- Julius Weschof (National Rank: 645)
NOTES: German man, freakish on skies, getting talked about as a rotation piece this year
VERDICT: Too early to tell, but likely a depth player
- Vincent Gray (National Rank: 700)
NOTES: Played a lot last year, showed flashes, Brown loves him, will be the CB1.
VERDICT: HIT
- Michael Barrett (National Rank: 751)
NOTES: In a competition for starting VIPER
VERDICT: Too early to tell
- Luke Schoonmaker (National Rank: 796)
NOTES: Lots of TE competition, but showed flashes last year.
VERDICT: Too early to tell, but early returns promising
- Hassan Haskins (National Rank: 975)
NOTES: Low recruiting ranking, but was our RB1b last year and didn’t look out of place
VERDICT: HIT
- German Green (National Rank: NA)
NOTES: I’m likely mixing him up with his brother, but haven’t heard much about him.
VERDICT: Likely Miss
- Ronnie Bell (National Rank: NA)
NOTES: Only had one FB offer. Led team in receiving last year as a Sophomore
VERDICT: HIT
- Jake Moody (National Rank: NA)
NOTES: Rotated with Nordin last year. Looks like an average P5 Kicker
VERDICT: IDK
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
I love seeing these for different years. Thanks.
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:36 PM ^
one small nitpik: Have to give Barrett a better grade than that. He may have been our best special teamer last year, and he is fighting for a starting spot. At least a Too early to tell, but early returns promising??
Good write up though. love me some football content starting to come in. Thank you for the post.
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:44 PM ^
I remember the whining on this blog about the lack of elite talent in this class. I argued that after 4 years, many will be singing a different tune. Halfway there - the tune is changing. Many very talented players: looking forward to their success!
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
As Brian said at the time, it’s not about what’s in this class, it’s what’s not in it. Could really have used a couple DT’s close to playing size, as having a competent RS Fr or true Soph (or two) last year might have kept us in the Wisconsin and OSU games. Ok, maybe just Wisconsin.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:14 PM ^
Ronnie B, Aidan, Cam McG, Mayfield, Gray, Haskins, Hayes, and Milton (among others) argue that point.
October 2nd, 2020 at 6:01 PM ^
Only one of those guys plays DL and none are tackles, I’m not sure what your point is. My point was that the class lacked interior DL, and if it had a few, it might have actually impacted the W total last year.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
And, certainly at the time, it was a disappointment (on my end at least) to take only 2 OL. It turns out, Hayes and Mayfield might be an all-time duo and UM bounced back and have had 3 straight classes with tons of OL depth. That hasn't been the case with interior DL, yet. I agree that what's not in a class is often a better gauge of success (or lack thereof).
October 2nd, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^
Hayes and Mayfield being an "all-time duo" is probably a bit, uh, generous.
8.5.0October 2nd, 2020 at 7:32 PM ^
Too early to tell...but seriously, considering they only took two, it might be tough to beat what they got out of those two.
Yes, there have been better duos (probably) but any better duo would have been the best two of a larger class so there's availability bias.
If they both go in the first round, which is not at all out of the realm of possibility, that would go down as one of the all-time best two man OL classes in history, for any team (granted two man classes are pretty rare).
October 3rd, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
Talent compared against other lower rated prospects may not translate vs teams with the same amount of talent or especially against the more talented teams. Doesn't zero top 100 recruits in any class for a national brand bother anyone else? One class I can give you a break but I believe Harbaugh has had several. um recruiting has been closer to psu and Wisconsin than to OSU. The team that you should set your standard by. I don't believe its anything more than management and lack of effort. Other staffs strategize their recruiting everyday. And don't just cop out and say it's just about money. That's weak.
October 3rd, 2020 at 9:21 AM ^
"Elite talent" I would consider 1st team all Big Ten or at least 2nd team All American.
The 2012 and 2013 classes had elite talent. All Americans in Butt, Lewis, Peppers, Hurst, and Wormley. Multiple other All Big Ten selections.
We will see if this class can produce like those. I remember people saying how such a great coaching job Harbaugh did with "just Hoke players".
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
Seems like the offensive side of the ball was a hit. Several key contributors in that group and not out of necessity. Defensively I still think it was a miss. A couple of good players but still lacking in the trenches (DT) and at CB. And we are feeling the pinch right now. That looks like a C+/B- class right now but I am willing to wait until more of them play to give it a final grade.
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
I would be hesitant to call Gray a hit yet. Outperforming expectations so far but not a hit.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
700th ranked player starting as a redshirt freshman and going into his redshirt sophomore year as an undoubted starter, beating out multiple players with higher recruiting rankings than him in the process, is a definite recruiting hit.
Your took a mid three star guy and found a multi-year starter. Maybe he’s not a future first rounder. Maybe he’s not going to be an All American. But you really can’t look at that as anything other than a recruiting hit.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:11 PM ^
I agree. You turn the 700th rated recruit into a starter on a ranked team, thats a hit in terms of him drastically outperforming his recruiting ranking.
I don't know if Gray is going to be a star or a liability, but people got to understand, he was only a RS Freshman last year. He's going to get better.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^
There is a difference between starting because you are that good and starting because the alternatives are worse. No question he has outplayed his ranking, but I have a feeling that in about 6 weeks his name will be coming up as an example of why we need to recruit better.
October 2nd, 2020 at 9:30 PM ^
Bad take. He played last year and we had pretty good CBs
October 2nd, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
For his ranking, sure, but actual ability to cover some of the best WRs in the Big Ten is still in question. He's going from CB3 to CB1. Let's see how he holds up.
Also, as others mentioned, it's more about what this class is missing. Even CB2 is a huge question mark, let alone a 3rd, which you need these days. OK, he's a starter, so he's a hit. But ideally I think we would have recruited more CBs the last few years and he may not be a starter. By your measure, we should just recruit guys in the 700s or 1000s and be fine with it because some of them have to be hits by default.
October 2nd, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
No because then UM wouldn’t be ranked.
October 3rd, 2020 at 9:12 AM ^
By my measure he was a starter as a redshirt freshman on the #11 defense in the country with the #10 passing defense nationally.
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^
great post. i love this stuff, classic bar argument fodder, at least for a particularly insane kind of michigan fan.
i can't stand bill simmons any more, but when sports weren't happening he did a series of redrafts of the nba going back about 20 years. highly recommended.
October 2nd, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Nice writeup.
Im mixed on Gray. He would be a good nickel DB or 2nd/3rd DB, but im willing to bet a dollar he is going to get exposed huge time as our #1 DB this year. If you look at him with the perspective that our #1 corner was the #700 recruit, i guess it is a hit. But he should not be our #1 DB and will pay for it this year. Its just the weakest link on our team, followed by LG IMO.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
The #700 recruit starting as a redshirt freshman and going on to be a mult-year starter is a recruiting hit. Full stop.
A “Hit” doesn't mean you’ve found the next first overall pick or All-American. A “hit” is simply finding a guy that has a positive impact on the team through his on-field performance. You find a starter in a recruiting class? That’s a hit. Period. You brought in a guy who is going to contribute in a big way. In this case, you have a guy who is going to contribute as a starter for multiple years.
Doesn’t mean he’s the greatest on the field. Doesn’t mean he’s a future star. You can’t base recruiting classes on that simply because players come and go so often and there can only be so many “stars” of a team, let alone stars in a particular class.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:26 PM ^
I respectfully disagree with this. Just because your starting or playing does not necessarily mean you are good. It could. But it could also mean that everyone else is just shit.
Now, i do not think VG is horrible by any means. But lockdown corner on a blue chip football program he is not - or at least, i don't think he is.
But yeah, maybe i can concede that as the #700 recruit in the nation maybe he is a hit? But the #700 recruit in the nation is still pretty damn good. I wish i would have been the #700 recruit in the nation.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
Being a hit doesn’t mean you’re “good” either. But considering ~50% of a given recruiting class doesn’t contribute or transfers, when you find guys that DO contribute it’s a hit. Especially when those are guys that are contributing as multi-year starters.
What you’re doing is looking for star caliber contribution to label it a hit, and that’s simply not what defines a hit in the recruiting world. Instances of that are so rare and there are so many flameouts in any given class that simply getting positive contribution/starts out of guys is a hit.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^
John O'Korn was ranked 645 and started here. Was he good too?
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
Was he good? Or was he a hit? Again, Two different things. Only one of which I brought up.
O’Korn’s starts here were also more out of necessity due to an injury to the starter and not a testament to his own abilities. Would he have started here if it weren’t for Speight’s injury? We also picked him up as a transfer and didn’t recruit him so he probably has a different set of criteria than basing it on where he was ranked as a recruit.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^
That is true about Speight's injury, I would hope he wouldn't of been in there otherwise. But look at the guys we recruited and missed on prior to taking Gray, and it is similar to an injury where the likely preferred starter is unavailable.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^
I just don’t think everyone holds that same definition for a “hit” which is why there is some hubbub regarding Gray. He reminds me of Brandon Watson. A guy we were happy to have as CB3, but who got exposed when WR3 was a very athletic player. I have a hard time shaking the idea that Gray is a poor mans BWat and is our best option at CB. I think a lot of people might have a similar feeling and thus view this as a position where our best CB is CB1, and not really a case where our CB1 is a good player.
And I think my paragraph maybe didn’t help clarify; to put it this way, we will field 3 CBs regardless of how many we have on the roster or how good any of them are. So, if everyone on the team quit, we would still have 3 CBs, and they may all be walk ons. That wouldn’t necessarily deem them HITs.
Again, just trying to bring to light the disparity here and why some people are struggling to agree
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
Well said. Pitt is ranked right below us and has 17* starters either 2 or 3 stars. Doesn't mean they are hits or good, it's just who they have.
*I didn't actually look this up, likely not factual
October 2nd, 2020 at 7:25 PM ^
I agree. Gray is much longer though. Also, we shouldn't have been playing so much man with Watson against those WRs. Some things changed last year but this year seems very different. They brought in 2 very good coaches to incorporate a lot more zone. I expect the OSU game plan to be quite different this year. And I trust Brown knows what he's doing. I think it has been a weird problem that the D has been so good against most teams that you want to stick with it, but then they run into OSU and are utterly unprepared for needing a much different plan.
I just checked and Watson is still in the NFL. Seems he's been bouncing between Jacksonville's practice squad and active roster.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
What is your hit criteria? Vincent Gray being better than the #700 player is one thing. Him being a good enough corner on a Big Ten title contending team is another.
And then there's the other half of it. Ronnie Bell is undoubtedly a hit. He's a starter quality player and in all likelihood will be a draftable player. But we wanted better players like Ja'Marr Chase and Chris Olave first. How do we grade that?
To me, we should retroactively evaluate recruiting on the following criteria. Would they start on an average Michigan team (so judging by talent, not circumstance)? How does the class complement the roster? What was the opportunity cost associated with each player (was he a first choice or after we had invested significant resources in other prospects)? We should be judging our coaches on talent ID and salesmanship. But it's not an easy thing to do.
I do appreciate the breakdown. Fair and not too homerish.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:30 PM ^
Seems you’re basing it on finding star players. Finding a “hit” is simply getting a guy who contributes in a meaningful way. Gray will be a multi-year starter. That’s a hit.
There are 85 scholarship players on a roster. How many fit into that mold of “star” that you’re searching for? Certainly not a base of the entire team. You’re looking for multiple hits in a class and a couple guys to ascend into that star level.
There are certainly levels to it. Ronnie Bell is a bigger hit than Gray because of Ronnie’s impact. Aiden Hutchinson as well due to his draft stock. But when you’re looking at 20-25 kids in a class each year, and a couple of them will flame out for grades, behavior or transfer issues. Getting meaningful contribution out of a guy is enough to call him a hit.
Simple way to look at it is, is this a guy who has proven himself worthy of the scholarship through his play on the field?
And to an extent I think recruiting rankings can play a part. I think Ronnie Bell can be considered more of a hit than Aiden, simply because Michigan found a kid in the gym with zero offers and he leads the team in receiving as a sophomore. That’s huge. While Aiden came in highly regarded so it’s less of a surprise. But he’s still a hit because, again, any time you’re bringing in guys who can start for your program (especially multi-year starters) then you’ve “hit” on the recruit.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
I think the better criteria for determining if a particular recruit hit is whether they became a player above B1G replacement level. By that measure, I think Gray qualifies as a hit.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
Does he though? He's pretty good against decent and below average talent, but suffers against any wide receiver with real speed. He's a slightly slower Brandon Watson, who is great to have on your team, but you never want guarding a team's talented number one receiver.
Vincent Gray ran a laser timed 4.76 at the Nike camp.
Khaleke Hudson ran a 4.56 at the combine
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
Interesting, thanks for posting. I'll make the obvious comment that Joe Milton's performance over the next couple years will drastically change how we view this class. Fingers crossed!
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
A lot of this is based off of practice hype especially in the secondary and DT. Proven hits are Hutchinson, Mayfield, McGrone, Bell, and Haskins. Pretty good players are Hayes, Gray, and Schoonmaker. The other guys haven't done anything yet and could either be great or not. I don't see a championship level team with these guys.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Good primer for the season. Feels like we'll find out on a number of guys this year, ex: if you're a DB and you can't get on the field this year....
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^
What samsoccersevensaid: I like these reconsiderations.
If Milton becomes a Hit, that'll make the class overall look pretty good.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
Hard disagree on Christian Turner. He's looked quite good but happens to be buried in an incredibly deep RB corps. Solid depth at worst.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:33 PM ^
He caused himself to be buried due to ball security issues. You’re right, he did look good. At times he looked better than Charbonnet and Haskins early in the season, and then he caught a case of the butter fingers and missed a few key blocks. He took himself out of playing.
October 2nd, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
Ball security issues is easily fixable though unless hes got chronically weak, deformed arms. He was great when he wasn't fumbling.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
I won't be surprised if Turner transfers after opting out this year, but I agree with your post. IMO he's a decent player.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
Any comments have to come with the obvious caveat that it's still way too early to judge this class, particularly since so many of these players were projects. It should be noted that this class ranked 22nd overall in the composite. With some luck (particularly on the Joe Milton front), this could end up being a top 10 class when the dust settles. I know that's overly bullish but I truly think Milton is going to be a stud.
My prediction is the 2018 class will not be the one that holds us back, even in the absence of combined talent at DT/CB. There were 10 more players in the 2017 class than 2018 and it's looking like the latter is going to dunk all over the former. We got very little out of that star studded WR group. McCaffrey and Solomon transferred. Same with Singleton, Anthony, Hudson and St-Juste. Vilain can't stay healthy. We got one good season out of Thomas. We're hoping and praying that Jeter and Filiaga finally break through and obviously Paye and Ruiz are hits. Steuber, Ross and Hawkins are solid players as well.
But that's just not much to speak of from a class that went 30 deep and was ranked 5th in the country.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^
Solid analysis. FWIW, I think if anything you are being a tough grader. Certainly we agree that there were some holes in this class and a lack of elite talent (based on rankings). But most of those guys are doing at or above expectations to date. E.g. Christian Turner - you call him a miss but that's in part because UM has a strong RB room right now. Turner showed flashes, especially for a back ranked around 500 overall. I would agree with others than Barrett may be a multi-year starter and if so, would be a hit. Plus there are several players that are bordering on real team stars (Hutch, McGrone, Mayfield and possibly Milton).
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
2018 had several low floor, high ceiling recruits. Excited to see some of them working out.
October 2nd, 2020 at 3:39 PM ^
Good analysis. This kind of thing is grist for the theory that Michigan often does better (or at least comparably well) with guys in the 250-500 range nationally as they do with guys above. This program is great at evaluation and development overall. What mostly needs to improve is just closing on more of those top targets as well
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:37 PM ^
And if you think about it, other than DL, it's almost the polar opposite of the Hoke years where we were getting higher ranks classes but many were busts or flamed out or transferred. The big criticism there was development and uneven classes/numbers.
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
That is very solid, especially for its original ranking
October 2nd, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
Great post. Depending on the output of the above class, michigan may have scouted well. Development is key, and hope the coaching staff continues to do well