Championship weekend would be a lot more interesting if the 12 team playoff existed
I love brackets, so I got to thinking about how much more interesting the next 8 days would be if the playoff was in effect. To be honest, this would not be better for Michigan, but as a whole it could be more interesting.
If the conference championship games went as expected, the main drama would be around who got the home games in the first round and the fact that the ACC and AAC games would be playin games for the playoff since 6 conference champions have to make it. In this scenario, I think it would break down like this.
- Byes
- Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC
- First Round Home Games
- Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, Penn State
- First Round Away Games
- ACC Champ, AAC Champ, then likely two of 10-2 Washington, 9-4 Utah, 9-4 LSU, 9-4 Kansas State, 9-3 Florida State, 9-3 Oregon, 10-3 Clemson (w/ a loss to UNC)
In this situation, I would hope that the committee would set it up to minimize SEC / SEC or B1G / B1G quarterfinals, so I think the order of the second four teams would go in the order I have listed.
What is really interesting to me is the rule in this system that 6 conference champions have to make it and only conference champions can get first round byes. Those two facts make the conference championship games MUCH more interesting. In this year's 4 team reality, Michigan and Georgia for sure and probably TCU and USC can lose their conference championship games and likely still make the 4 team playoff. If it was the 12 team system, all four would be playing for their first round byes this week which would definitely add some juice to it. What's even MORE interesting to me is that the 4 underdogs would probably be playing for a playoff spot, which seems nuts.
- If LSU, Utah, Purdue, or Kansas State were to win their conference championship games, they would only have to stay ahead of the Mountain West champion to remain as one of the 6 highest ranked conference champions and get a spot (likely a low seed, but still in). It would be really interesting to see the committee debate 9-4 Purdue vs 10-3 Boise State for a spot.
- LSU is dead in the water in this system, but they could be playing not only for a spot in the playoff, but a bye this weekend in the new system. 10-3 with wins over Alabama and Georgia probably beats out the ACC champ for the 4th bye.
- Throw in a second or third conference championship upset, and Utah, Purdue, and KState could be in the running for byes.
- Get totally crazy, and the four byes could end up being LSU, Purdue, Clemson, and Kansas State, bumping Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC to hosting first round games against Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, and Tulane / UCF.
I definitely am not convinced any of this is actually better, but it sounds fun.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
A few years ago it felt like we were desperate for an expanded playoff to ever qualify. Now, it feels like we are one of those 5 or 6 teams that can hope to make it more often than not in the current format! What an incredible program turnaround!
November 28th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
So true. The transformation has been amazing. It feels now like we should be annually in contention for a playoff berth only a few years after a brutal few years.
Now we just need to take that last step up and finally beat an SEC team in the NC game.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
I disagree. Lots of bad teams that don't deserve a shot, and it makes Championship saturday moot. If by interesting you mean just more football, yes, but I don't care to see any of those games.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:48 AM ^
This is why I have very mixed feelings on the 12-team playoff. On the one hand, I think some deserving 5/6 ranked teams that could maybe have made some noise nationally have been left out over the years. Not tangentially, I think Michigan has BEEN one of those teams a couple of times.
That said, I don't like the idea of the team that loses The Game, that misses the BTCG as a result, backing into a chance to win the National Championship. One of the things that made the Michigan-OSU rivalry so good for so many years was that it effectively WAS a playoff game, with the winner going to the Rose Bowl. Even in the 4-team playoff and expanded Big Ten, that has been true - the loser of the game is out of the conference and national races by definition.
The 12 team field is easily big enough for the loser of any future Football Armageddon(s) to still advance to national title contention. That takes something away from the regular-season game that functions as a playoff game, IMO.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
Agreed -- in fact I would just eliminate the conference championship games if we do a 12 team playoff. Conference championship games are often either redundant matchups (USC/Utah, TCU/K St) or elite teams vs meh teams that muddled through tiebreakers. Let this weekend be a true elimination Round 1 of the playoffs instead.
If we still want to reward conference champions in seeding, we can just eliminate divisions and figure out tiebreakers if needed (none needed this year). Or if the conference is big enough (~16+ teams), award automatic bids to division winners. CC games confuse the rankings as often as they clarify them, not to mention are played in antiseptic NFL stadiums. I've disliked them for 30 years ever since the SEC started this trend.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
Having playoffs after conference championship games has always felt like a weird construct to me. If we had the 12 team cfp format, for M the B1G cg would be for a bye. For, Purdue it would be for a spot in the playoffs. And, as pointed out it opens the door for a lot of teams that didn't make their ccg to make the playoffs.
If we want to keep the ccg, integrate them into the first round of the playoffs. Top 2 teams from top 6 conferences play for spots in playoffs. 4 other teams are in 2 play-in games for an 8 team playoff after ccg/play-in games. Top 4 conference champs get home field in the round of 8. Other teams are seeded to avoid rematches as long as possible.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
Totally agree. Conference championships, PLUS a 12 team playoff is too much. I think incorporating the CC's into the playoffs somehow, would have been an interesting solution. Unfortunately, I don't see the conferences doing away with their cash cows and so now we are stuck with both.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
Nah. It's more good football. Most of the 5-12 teams will not realistically win the ship, sure. But if "who wins the national title?" is the only thing that matters to you you care about the wrong sport.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
I'm not sold on a bigger playoff yet. We'll see when it gets here. I really like the high stakes that the games had this past weekend and for the year for that matter. Expanding to 12 teams cheapens that a bit. I also love that OSU is likely eliminated and they have to wear it for another 365 as opposed to drawing a rematch in the playoffs. For the amount of emotion that goes into that game each year, playing once is enough for me.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
I just wish the projected format were 6- or 8-team. 4 reinforced the last decade of low parity in CFB, which I see as problematically exclusive *and* problematically static. But 12 seems needlessly large, with too many rematches and too many low caliber matriculants, and insufficient extra dazzle and oomph to make the trade worthwhile.
I favor the smaller(est) format for which P5 conference champs get auto bids. 6 and 8 seem quite fitting in that way.
That maintains value for the regular season without the low parity nonsense of the 2010s or the engrained sense that 85% of the Top 25 actually have nothing of meaning to play for.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
In basketball, they always have the second Duke-UNC game near or at the end of the season, it gets all hyped up, then the loser says "oh well there's still the ACC tournament and March Madness." To me that's less interesting, not more.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
I want the expanded playoff sooner than later, even if we're now one of the chosen ones that will always get serious consideration. And the fact that it's pretty unlikely the SEC gets 2 this year is probably going to push the timeline a little. ESPN has the playoff games, and they want their league on the air as much as the SEC expects to get multiple teams.
And yeah, I also want to see southern teams come up to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc to play in December!
November 28th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
And yeah, I also want to see southern teams come up to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc to play in December!
I love this idea, too! But I REALLY hope the southern teams are travelling to Ohio and Pennsylvania, and NOT to Michigan. I'd rather UM have a bye.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
I am a strong proponent of an expanded playoff. In this current situation I like the 4-team format...would even prefer a 2 team one :)
November 28th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
College football would be more interesting if conferences were small enough for every team to play each other and then at the end of the year the better teams from each conference played similar teams from another conference in some sort of EOY bonus game. If any teams with a strong sos were left undefeated they could play in a National Championship game.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
College players do not need a 16 game season.
This is only discussed so the networks can make more money.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
College players do not need a 16 game season
I've never understood this mindset when you consider that most high school players will play 15 games if they go to the state championship. And every college football division besides the FBS plays 15 to crown a champion.
Why is it that only the best of the best college players can't handle 15-16 games when they do it in high school and the NFL (and lower levels of college)?
November 28th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
D2 and D3 also end up with extended seasons due to legit playoff formats.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
Not on board with expanding the playoffs until we see much better semi final games. Majority of them have been lopsided. These kids don't need more wear and tear on thier bodies before getting to the NFL.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
While I’ve accepted the soon-to-be reality of college football post-season, seeing beaten teams like this year’s PSU and Ohio State getting to play will detract from the season for me. Being and beating the conference Goliath just won’t mean as much, so huge seasonal upsets won’t mean as much. It’ll be huge for the mid-level teams, since they now have a real shot at getting in, but the pursuit of perfection was an essential part of the college game in my eyes. Now the spotlight will be more on the teams on the bubble, and on rivalry weekend, I don’t want national focus on whether a 2-loss PSU can beat a 5-6 MSU. But that’s the kind of game that will put someone’s post-season on the line.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
Hot take: I hate playoff expansion. Four is good enough. It cheapens the regular season, turns a grind of a sport into something even longer, and cheapens conference championships.
Is there really any debate about which four teams are best this year?
November 28th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
Is there really debate? The top 2 are clear. Assuming TCU doesn't take a beat down, they are 3. But the margin between teams that might be 4 seems pretty slim, especially if USC looks less then stellar in the PAC cg.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
On the one hand, it would be great because it would give interesting teams like Utah and K-State a chance to make it. They are fun teams and I think are absolutely capable of pulling off an upset against some of the big time teams.
On the other hand...it becomes a lot less interesting because these games mean a whole lot less. The traditional rivalry games at the end of the season - especially Michigan-Ohio State - will not have nearly as much on the line. They lose a lot of juice. And the SEC will then get plenty of mediocre teams into this playoff, so a 9-3 LSU team is likely in in this scenario no matter what. Plus, teams like Georgia will just rest their best players for the last several games.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
The problem with 12 team playoffs is that last year, Michigan State who got clownstomped against Ohio State 49 to 0 at the half, would have made it in.
Another problem is that The Game becomes merely seeding.
Even with 4 teams, half the playoff games are by margins of 3 scores.
Playoffs should expand to 6 teams with the top 2 getting a coveted bye.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Why? So we can watch more alabama, Tennessee, Clemson and lsu?
November 28th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
this is why I hate a 12 team over an 8 or 16, 8 is the right number IMO.
12 team means 4 gets a bye and 5 doesn't and as the rankings are subjective, the difference between 4 and 5 often is quite marginal. So that's a huge advantage for #4.
Also, I like MORE games, not less. And moreso if we can get a home game in december vs some warm weather team. So it kinda sucks to get a bye and see less Michigan football, IMO.
November 28th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
Championship Week doesn't need to exist in 12-team CFP.
Why give your team an unnecessary L? Those things cost the Conference $$$$.
November 28th, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
Honestly, this might be more interesting after the regular season, but man would this have made the last 5 or 6 weeks of the regular season really, really uninteresting.