CFB Nerds Michigan-PSU Prediction
Here's the link to the video.
Some notes:
- Their model predicts a Michigan win
- They pick PSU because they think Michigan's injuries could very much hurt offensive production
- They said their predictions would be much more in-line with a Michigan win if the injuries don't hamper Michigan as much and offensive production thus falls in line with previous games
- They agree with Drain that PSU has Dotson and little else; they seem to like the Michigan pass D
- Their concern for Michigan is on offense
My personal view is that they are overweighting the actual impact of injuries. Michigan sat quite a few guys against a clearly overmatched opponent due to an abundance of caution. The game will be close, but Michigan has the horses to handle things on offense and keep Dotson from destroying things on the other side of the ball.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
They like our pass D, as in the chaos and pressure Hutchinson and Ojabo create? They surely cannot mean our pass coverage.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
Pass D doesn't just mean coverage, it's how the defense is against the pass lol. The fact that Michigan has two great ends and has been good most of the year getting pressure makes your pass defense better.
Also, don't act like Michigan's coverage has been terrible. They haven't faced the toughest WRs yet, but they still look markedly better than last year and at least aren't getting burned routinely. Hopefully that keeps up
November 12th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
I think our coverage is improved from last year. I’m sure Dotson will hit a few big plays. We’ll hit some big plays. The question is do you score a touchdown after big plays vs stall in the red zone and kick field goals
November 12th, 2021 at 12:23 PM ^
People keep talking as if Michigan has given up a bunch of big coverage busts or something this year. That's not the case. Gray, Turner II, and Green aren't an elite group, but they've been fine and haven't turned in many notable costly mistakes or failures. We should all admit that our preseason takes were far too pessimistic
November 12th, 2021 at 12:33 PM ^
Many fans' opinion of the secondary is based exclusively on one thing--whether they fear/expect it to get torched by OSU receivers.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^
I know you know this but it bears repeating that those guys torch literally everyone
November 12th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
Plus one for literal usage of "literally."
November 12th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
*pushes up glasses*
Ackshually "literally everyone" means all 7+ billion people on the planet, and I'm pretty sure there's at least a few NFL defenses Ohio State both as not and could not torch.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
They're good, sure. But Stroud has struggled when facing pressure, and he won't run. Unless he's playing the long-game to rope-a-dope Michigan this year, I don't see a repeat of 2018. But a good OSU passing attack and the PTSD from the last two games... cue abject despair.
November 12th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
A 2018-style blowout looks unlikely if Michigan is healthy. I would still predict a loss, but this time I at least know Michigan will prepare for what OSU actually runs and what their players are actually capable of, something at which Brown increasingly failed to do
November 12th, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
My opinion is based on watching them, and this isn't what I'd call a good secondary - especially compared to ones we've seen during Harbaugh's tenure. Dax is a beast and Hawkins has been good, but our CB's (while improved from last year) are not very good.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
Some of it is BPONE and yes looking at OSU, but the only offense to date that has a relatively consistent pulse in the passing game is MSU (Nebraska kind of sort of but more gimmicky). Which, Michigan's secondary did a good job against! However, MSU lost Nailor in the middle of the game and after Thorne threw the 2 INTs he did pretty well. Something like 16/22 for 175 yards and the two 2 pt conversions.
So that's my concern. The CBs have been surprisingly reliable to date, but also not tested a ton. PSU is probably the best passing offense Michigan will face up to this point in the season so it's another test and a marginal step up from previous tests.
November 12th, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
A decent chunk of this fanbase believes the secondary has played exactly one game over the past 2 years and it was 2020 vs. MSU, and no amount of time or additional evidence will shake that.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
"Improved from last year" when talking about the 2020 secondary means nothing. I can't even fathom the possibility that there was room to get worse than last year.
November 12th, 2021 at 3:17 PM ^
Fryfogle from Indiana had 7 receptions for 150 yards and a TD last year. This year with I believe the same guy covering him he didn’t have a catch. This is just one example (the entire MSU game for example), but that isn’t just “improved” from last year. We have a completely different defensive strategy and it has been a night-and-day difference
November 12th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
chaos and pressure is only good if the refs arent in the f-ing way. and psu is not that diff than osu historically in terms of awful calls in happy valley.
On the other hand... the joy i get from looking at psu fans every time i yell TOUCHDOWN MANNINGHAM!!! makes this rivalry so good to me.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
Michigan is 10th in the NCAA in pass efficiency defense to date. Call it a paper tiger if you like, but there are statistical reasons to like Michigan's pass D.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
I also predict a PSU win. It sucks but it’s a hard place to win and our injuries will impact the outcome.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
Penn state is a vastly overrrated team. Illinois beat them in happy valley with Clifford back at QB. Im expecting a 10 point win tomorrow. They are 6-3 with some narrow victories and narrow defeats. If this was a night game i might be more concerned but I would take Cade over Clifford in a heartbeat!
November 12th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
Between Michigan State/Penn State/Ohio State, Penn State is easily the best match up for us. While we're on the road against MSU/PSU which helps those teams, both games are noon/afternoon games not night games which makes a big difference like you said. But MSU/OSU are worse matchups for us because their offenses are balanced. All 3 teams have an elite WR or two, but only Penn State doesn't a have a ground game. That means Michigan can sit back in coverage and make Clifford have to dink and dunk down the field (bend but don't break) which has proven to be the most successful strategy for all the best teams this year due to everyone's redzone scoring issues.
And Penn State has only 1 elite wideout, where Michigan State/Ohio State each have at least 2, which means Dotson can be bracketed by Dax Hill and another safety which should nerf his production. And Clifford is some degree of hurt or at least recovered but unlikely to scramble much to avoid further injury which also limits what their offense was capable of earlier this season.
If this game were at home, I'd wager we'd be decent favorites. This has the feel of the 2018 game vs Penn State, except on the road not at home. We're gonna lean on our run game until the PSU defense wears out in the 2nd half and then sit on the lead for good.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
Hope you're right.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
Depending on who is doing the rating, one could argue they're vastly underrated considering they aren't actually rated at all by the CFP despite beating Wisconsin and Auburn.
They're a weird team, because yes, that loss to Illinois is shocking but other than that, they have a very respectable loss to OSU as explained here. And they were handling Iowa with ease at Iowa until Clifford went out. So if he's healthy (which he wasn't vs Illinois by all accounts), one could argue they're much better than the record indicates.
November 12th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
Penn State didn't beat Wisconsin, Wisconsin beat Wisconsin. Mertz fumbled inside the PSU 10 yard line and threw an interception inside the 10 as well. They were on the PSU 2 yard line with 32 seconds on the clock and drew a false start to move back to the 7. That's when Mertz threw the interception to end the game. Wisconsin also had a 25 yard field goal blocked.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
Has the injury status of our players been officially posted yet? Just curious, perhaps I missed.
November 12th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^
I don't believe so, but from another poster in a different thread, seems like Corum is still out, the rest of the contributors who were out last week should be back.
EDIT: adding Green to the "will not play" pile.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
November 12th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
This game is a must win for the obvious reasons. It's also a should win. PSU is not all that good. A win moves the needle away from the "Harbaugh can't win when it matters" narrative. A loss continues to prove that point and rightfully so.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
The national narrative will go back to Michigan cannot win a big game and cannot win a ranked road game.
PSU isn't ranked according to the committee so this isn't a "ranked" game according to a lot of people who want to continue along with the narrative.
Michigan loses to team X = Michigan can't win big games.
Michigan beats team X = Team X wasn't good so it doesn't count.
Regardless, even looking back at preseason expectations, this game would be a significant disappointment if it turns out to be a loss. Going 9-3 (won't beat OSU until they beat OSU) with the 3 losses coming in the 3 biggest games of the season all against East teams would suck.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^
As silly as some of the negativity here has been, this is all undeniably true. Though a loss at PSU and a win over OSU are still in the realm of possibility. And that scenario would still look like a win to me.
If the injuries limit us too much, that's the breaks. Otherwise, I think we're the better team. That doesn't guarantee you a win at PSU.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
a loss at PSU and a win over OSU are still in the realm of possibility.
I mean sure, most anything IS possible. However, I'm not picking Michigan to beat OSU until they do it. OSU could be down to their 3rd string QB and Ryan Day could be coaching laying down in the booth like Freeze and I still wouldn't do it. But, I would take a loss @PSU for a win over OSU no questions asked.
I think Michigan is generally the more consistent team. To be honest, I haven't watched a ton of PSU this year, but they tend to have game breakers at a lot of spots and yet kind of plodd around from time to time (Illinois for example). Since PSU is higher variance, we could get a 2019 situation where they hit their big stuff and Michigan has to grind away to get theres. Or, take away Dotson and keep the offense on schedule and Michigan could roll them over with relative ease (relative being the key word).
Worried about injuries. Would love the program to be a little more forthcoming with updates, but that will clearly never be the case.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
I agree - this is an important game, not just for the season, but for the Harbaugh regime. If they can go into Happy Valley and win, they are set up for a chance at the title. If they then somehow win The Game, the Harbaugh narrative will change, and the future will be bright.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
We control our own destiny once ohio state destroys msu. Harbaugh has a chance to shut all the haters up. Dont fuck it up against an unranked 6-3 team
November 12th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
this will always be an important game, but especially this year once we lost to MSU
obviously we need this game to win the BIG (unless Purdue does something shocking tomorrow)
I am not really concerned about the CFP this year- we aren't ready to win it all anyway
I just want to finally beat OSU and win the Big Ten
Winning the BIG this year would be a huge catalyst for the program to build towards a multi-year run and to actually have a shot at winning the CFP and to get to the level of OSU
So far this has been a great building year with those wins at Nebraska and Wisconsin.
Let's see how we play tomorrow, but I am happy with the season so far despite the MSU loss
November 12th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
They picked UM over MSU
November 12th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
Woulda coulda shoulda, but it wasn't a bad pick.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
I’m fairly sure his point was that they were wrong about M-MSU, so they will be wrong about M-PSU, and thus we’ll win instead of losing like they predict.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
The big question is who are the refs betting on.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
- Their model predicts a Michigan win
- They pick PSU because they think Michigan's injuries could very much hurt offensive production
I agree with their model, but I'd also guess their model would have predicted an MSU win. So, there are things beyond what they've done in the past that happen when two similarly ranked teams both really want to win. Models are accurate more often than not, but that doesn't mean UM can't end up on the losing side of a 60% predicted win model. I'm hoping Franklin's potential exit to USC/LSU are a big enough distraction that PSU is not as prepared as usual and Clifford's legs are not as healthy as usual to compensate for playing in a difficult atmosphere and for UM's injuries.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
If Eric All, Andrel Anthony and Donovan Edwards play would should be fine then. Blake playing this weekend would be a bonus.
November 12th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
The injury that most concerns me is Green - our secondary is already a weak spot (relatively speaking) and psu likes to pass.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
Looks like the weather in Happy Valley is slated for rain/wind with the temp in the upper 40s.
Should make PSU's passing attack a bit more difficult.
Also agree that losing Green would be the most detrimental for Saturday.
November 12th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Not so wet as of late with highest rain chances in the morning then a sprinkle or flurry during the game. The wind will be up and colder temps around 40 for most of the game.
The Michigan defense stepping up to slow down their passing attack will be the key to winning despite whatever inclement weather awaits.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:11 PM ^
Actually PSU must pass. Their rushing is 194th while their passing is 45th. They are guaranteed to be throwing the ball. If Sean Clifford is healthy, he adds quite a bit to both their running and passing game, and he's supposed to be as healthy as he has been since before Iowa. I expect Franklin to come out with a few tricks.
Meanwhile, their defense is nothing to write home about - 93rd overall. A balanced UM attack and decent defense should bring home a win.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^
I love Corum and hope he is playing, but you could do a lot worse than giving Haskins 30 touches a game.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
NERDS
NERDS
NERDS
November 12th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
PSU has become the 3rd rival... overtaking ND in the last decade
Macro analysis from this Nerd:
-their homefield advantage is minimized by an early start and is offset by the the fact we have more to play for
-I think we have a slightly better team overall
-yardage and possession end up about even
- our specials teams make the difference
Prediction:
Michigan 26 to 20
November 12th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
If Edwards is good to go, think this should be his coming out party and we’ll be really excited for the Corum+Edwards 1-2 punch next year
November 12th, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
I have PSU in this game. If I've learned anything from the Harbaugh years is that if Michigan is the slightly better team and it's an away game, it's going to be a loss.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
Really? What was the win against Wisconsin just this year? Damn. We might very well lose, but ripping on Harbaugh even when he wins is ridiculous.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
Until the team beats OSU, the goalposts for Michigan should and shouldn't be doing are always going to be moving. Shouldn't be that way, but it just is. That is the origin and root for all of this angst.
I don't think a lot of folks are going to be truly satisfied until Michigan beats OSU. That is the one team that will always be standing in the way of Michigan getting where it wants to go, and Michigan will never be able to do anything about that besides lining up across from them and finding a way to win.