Can someone with more knowledge of football scheming (like SpaceCoyote) explain why Shea can't get more deep throws off?
Is Gattis not calling for the deep ball, or is Shea just not getting the throws off? Is the offensive line not blocking well enough for Shea to stay in the pocket and throw? Is it all of the above? I seriously can't fathom how Michigan got 1 successful deep throw to Nico in the 1st quarter, and then didn't throw it deep the rest of the game (although I know they did have those 3 successful out routes to Nico, DPJ, and Tarik that ended in the missed field goal). Nico, DPJ, and Tarik are all NFL-level guys and Ronnie Bell (who I have great respect for) is somehow leading the team in receiving yards. This is the best receiving talent we've had since at least the Carr era and somehow those guys combine for 6 targets in this game? Please everyone, help me understand this. What am I missing here?
When I played NCAA '07 back in the day, I would literally just run 4 verticals on every single play and throw it to my 5-star receivers. What exactly is preventing Michigan from at least trying this? It could not possibly be worse than what they are currently doing, unless you expect that the offensive line won't block and Shea will get fumble-sacked every time. Even if it's intercepted, it just turns into an average punt.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
If guys are covered you cant just throw it up to them, if you do there is a good chance it will be intercepted. Iowa was playing a 4 -2 -5. So they had 5 guys in coverage plus the llinebackers, there probably wasnt much room to throw to. Its unfortunate we could not establish the run, but that is on Gattis.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
When your guys are 3+ inches taller than the DBs or can leap out of the room, you absolutely can throw it up to them. Collins was covered VERY tightly on the deep ball and caught it with defender's arm between him and the ball.
Maybe Shea's too nervous to turn it over. I know that may be hard to believe. But maybe the coaches aren't asking for more deep balls, believing that a little more ball control (which they're having difficulty establishing) is the right move.
They've still got lots of work to do.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:49 PM ^
My biggest complaint is throwing off his back foot far too often instead of stepping into the throws. It's why the ball "sails" on him and he over throws guys.
Working on that and his RPO's would help tremendously.
All in all I still saw some good things today they can build on though. Like most on here I feel the deep ball should be thrown / tried more often as I think we win that battle 7 out of 10 times.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:29 PM ^
Agreed. He looked GREAT on that one drive in the 2nd half that ended in the missed FG.
But every throw was a clean pocket where he stepped up. As soon as he gets pressure...he goes from very good to John O'Korn.
October 5th, 2019 at 7:47 PM ^
I agree, he also seems to really thrive when he can throw between the line and not over it because he likes to sling from that 3/4 arm slot. When he has to loft it on a sideline touch pass it tends to wobble or sail.
That said, the running game was far to pedestrian and not creative.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
Whoever the trickster video guy is for Michigan needs to quit editing out the parts where it shows that nearly EVERY fucking time you just heave the fucking ball downfield something good happens. Only explanation is no one is seeing this in film study.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
That was one on one coverage though, that's why it worked.
From what I saw being at the game, there simply wasn't anything deep today to throw.
The problem was that we couldn't adjust to that and get anything else done either.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:56 PM ^
Well, then everyone we've played save Rutger has our receivers, routes, offense - completely figured out.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:21 PM ^
A man who shall not be named posted Shea’s stats on one of his vids. The CLEAR weakness is intermediate routes. So Iowa did a nice job of forcing Michigan into them today.
Still looks likes eyes on the rush instead of eyes downfield.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:35 AM ^
And when they cover deep, we should hitting slants, crossing routes and quick outs. You know, like, maybe #speedinspace. But we don't. Probably b/c Shea can't throw those routes well enough? Or Gattis is a fool? Or both?
October 5th, 2019 at 7:19 PM ^
I think people dramatically overhype size on these deep throws. Yes, UMs receivers are taller. But UMs corners are also shorter than a lot of guys they play against and most teams don't chuck it up against them either. Because sure, sometimes you hit the big play. But those guys are also good at picking the ball off.
The offense seems concerned about throwing the ball deep. That's a playcalling issue at times. But there's a reason video games are the only time you see a chuck-and-pray offense consistently work, and I'm getting tired of this blog perpetuating the idea that it's viable.
October 6th, 2019 at 7:59 AM ^
2016 Penn St disagrees.
This is college - where some of the players are head and shoulders better than everyone else on the field. This is not the NFL, where every player can beat everyone else on the field at any given time. Lavert Hill has a future in the NFL, Iowa's WRs don't. At least three of Michigan's receivers have a future in the NFL (probably 4, incl Bell). Iowa's CBs don't.
Michigan can absolutely win 7 of 10 deep throws against Iowa's corners - especially when they flood deep routes all over. It wouldn't even be close! But M ran one deep route all day - for Collins early in the game. Klatt said it repeatedly on the broadcast, and kept complaining about it all day. They never even tried to stretch the field, just cut everything off around 20-25 yards. They made it an easy field for Iowa's zone to cover well.
If protection was the answer (not being good enough), then this is the offense we're going to see against anyone with a pulse. Iowa's DL is not as good as some we're going to face coming up.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
How is an interception worse than what they are currently doing? Michigan had 3 semi-productive drives: the TD, and the two missed field goals. Aside from that, here is their offensive production:
5 plays, 14 yards (punt)
4 plays, 8 yards (field goal)
2 plays, 5 yards (interception)
3 plays, 4 yards (punt)
5 plays, 17 yards (punt)
3 plays, 0 yards (punt)
5 plays, 22 yards (punt)
6 plays, 6 yards (punt)
3 plays, 2 yards (punt)
3 plays, 8 yards (punt)
I don't care if Iowa has 11 guys back in coverage, we have THREE NFL-level receivers. Shit, even Hail Marys get caught sometimes. Stop fearing the unknown, just throw the ball deep and see what happens. The only excuse I see for not throwing even ONE deep ball after the 1st quarter, when you had 10 drives of 6 plays or less, is that you can't block well enough and you think Shea will get fumble-sacked.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^
An interception can set Iowa up in great position to score points, a scarce commodity. I don't like the offensive gameplan either, but just throwing picks because we want to throw the ball downfield is not a good strategy, particularly in this game where turnovers were a major factor in our favor.
Hail Mary passes get caught sometimes, but not often, and are not something one can base a sustainable offense around.
I want Michigan to use the receivers a lot more, too. I want them to go downfield. I think Shea needs to throw to guys who have a man on them. But this is not a good argument.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:57 PM ^
If you can throw the ball 30 or 40 yards from your own 30 yard line, an interception is not worse than a punt unless you expect the defender will have a huge return. As it was, Iowa had great field position all game and still couldn't do anything, because they are nearly as inept on offense as Michigan is.
October 6th, 2019 at 2:08 AM ^
Well, there is the momentum aspect of turning the ball over that probably counts for something. The intercepting team gets jacked up a little and the team that got intercepted gets a little deflated. Football 101 teaches that turnovers are the devil incarnate and I think coaches and player's thoughts are controlled by it.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^
Lets not forget that FOUR of those drives were from Iowa turnovers - and we got ONE fucking field goal out of them.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^
That's 10 drive you have and see that 4 of them were three and outs. That sucks. Consider that IA had several three and long conversions. Aside from a truly defensive performance by Michigan, this game could have gone down the tubes.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:23 PM ^
Yeah, because we haven’t seen fumble sacks yet this season.
Can’t tell me I was the only one who was holding their breath when Shea got sacked inside the 10.
(BTW, DPJ was wide open on that. Shea didn’t read it right.)
October 6th, 2019 at 2:10 AM ^
I was holding my breath and I was fully clenched.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:58 PM ^
Shea had receivers open and ducked and ran.
October 5th, 2019 at 9:42 PM ^
Why didn't Pony think of that last year vs TUOS?
The old not much room to throw trick...
October 5th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
He doesn’t have the arm strength....
October 6th, 2019 at 12:54 AM ^
This can be overcome with great timing but it is a problem for Shea. I don’t think people realize just how much his 20+ yard throws float. Speight had much better trajectory on those throws and he wasn’t especially strong armed
October 6th, 2019 at 8:09 AM ^
I noticed that on the only second half drive that looked good, with the missed FG. Those ~20 throws just looked soft and seemed to take forever in getting there.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
Klatt said during the game that Michigan kept running medium and short routes and the safeties were sitting on it. It is baffling that they didn’t see that and send more deep to keep the D honest.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^
This is the frustrating thing, yet a very easy fix. Should be a guy running deep when safeties are playing zone to take the top off which Klatt kept reiterating the entire second half
October 5th, 2019 at 7:44 PM ^
So many of the game planning, play calling and on field decisions are absolutely mind boggling. How can a coach who was one play away from winning the Super Bowl be overseeing this?
October 5th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
I didnt see many deep routes. Most of the stuff was underneath. Two drive killing frippery play calls with the wildcat on 2nd and long and whatever DPJ was doing on that 9 yard loss.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^
The Fox commentator even pointed out that Michigans routes today weren't deep enough to beat Iowas coverage
October 5th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
I think Klatt had it right and that was a DPJ designed throw. But why in the hell was he not coached to throw it away if the receiver isn’t there and there’s 3 guys between you and getting back to the line of scrimmage?
October 5th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
Im not expert but I can say Shea doesn't have a strong arm which definitely hurts his ability to throw downfield. This was one of his negatives from NFL scouts.
Dude throws ducks 9/10 times when throwing beyond 30 yards. Inaccurate flailing passes that hardly ever lead the WR even when the WR is wide open downfield
Sadly, his reads are also horrible which makes the short-mid range passing game also shit so him arm punting is probably still our best bet to gain yardage
October 5th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
They need to work on their routes. Seems like Shea was throwing either too high or not in the intended receivers spot. A couple of plays by the offense could have put at least 14 more points on the board.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
Shea has receivers open but never looks at them. He holds the ball instead of throwing to the open man and then panics when the pressure comes
October 5th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
Shea looks too pedestrian, as he did the first three games of the season. Take away the Rutgers performance, he's not getting it done. I'd rank him in the lower 7 of the starting QBs in the B1G at this point. On a positive note, he finally ran the ball a few times and when we needed it.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^
Tar and feather whomever is coaching our QBs
October 5th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
McDaniels and Harbaugh.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^
You almost had it, until you tried to back up your points with your NCAA '07 strategy.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^
It was a joke, but I literally don't see how throwing the ball deep every other play could be any worse than having 10 drives that went 6 plays for a punt, including 4 three and outs. I would probably be content if they threw one deep ball every other drive, but they still refuse to do that. Nothing they are doing is working. It is criminal to have this kind of receiving talent and give them 6 targets.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:14 PM ^
Because heaving up an interception on first or second down doesn't give your defense enough of a breather. Even if we get a three and out it takes at least 10 minutes of real time. Where an interception on first down is maybe 1 or 2 minutes and in this game where defense is winning it for us you have to take that into consideration. I definitely think we need to take more deep shots but you can't just chuck it up every down.
October 5th, 2019 at 7:40 PM ^
This is a rational objection... however, you'd obviously want to throw the deep ball on 2nd or 3rd down then, not first. And you don't have to do it every drive. They didn't throw deep balls on their drives that went 4-6 plays either (i.e. drives that included a 1st down and took up enough time to give the defense a breather) All I want to see is like 1 deep ball a quarter. I maintain that even if they were all interceptions, it couldn't be worse than their current strategy.
October 5th, 2019 at 8:01 PM ^
Agreed, you gotta get the ball to your best players ie.. The recievers. I wasn't at the game and was wondering if the wind was a facor too because Stanley's deep ball was not on point.
October 6th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
Eh... his NCAA '07 strategy is basically the basis of the Air Raid offense.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
I was with you until you literally suggested we run the “13 year old playing Madden” strategy.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:49 PM ^
IMO Patterson came real close to throwing 2 interceptions on the very first drive of the game. I believe that made him skittish for the rest of the afternoon. He clearly doesn't have a strong enough arm to zip the ball in to tight windows or to throw it over the top on deep patterns. If you watch you see the receivers having to wait for the ball rather than having to race to it. No way this guy gets drafted. This all had me wondering on that last play before half, if you are going to try and through it to the end zone why would you let him attempt it versus a guy that can throw the ball 70 yards.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:31 PM ^
I was expecting the same thing. One second, need a 60 yard throw, have Milton chuck it up there. Must have feared a fumble if he didn’t sense a blitz or some other risk averse analysis.
October 5th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
One of the shortcomings of advanced college football analysis is that we do not have access to "All-22" footage, which would allow us to conclusively identify how often there were deep routes that Michigan was failing to exploit.
Iowa generally plays a conservative cover-2 zone, and there is a good probability that sideline deep throws were not readily available. Theoretically, though, if you have a guy drawing coverage from both a corner and a safety up the sideline, you also have space in the flat into which you can throw the ball to be caught by a speedy slot receiver.
Best guess based on what I've seen is that Shea did not have the patience to allow deep routes to develop. He frequently bugged out of pockets that were relatively clean rather than wait for guys to spring open. One may surmise with no evidence either for or against that there were some deep patterns that remained unexploited as a consequence.
October 5th, 2019 at 5:33 PM ^
Announcers basically called this issue when they said Michigan receivers were always faking inside and Iowa was just not biting on those moves. Can’t go the same way every time.
October 5th, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
Patterson doesn't throw over the middle. At all. Why would you buy an inside fake by a wideout when he never throws it there.