Caleb Houstan declines Combine Invite, clearing the way for UM return?

Submitted by BIGdevotee on May 10th, 2022 at 9:53 PM

Interesting news here, apparently Houstan has declined an invite, making it highly likely that he will return next season.

Honestly, who knows what's going on. This seems fluid.

 

Also reported by Alejandro Zúñiga on twitter.

 

https://twitter.com/itsAntWright/status/1524196992712417280

 

BIGdevotee

May 10th, 2022 at 9:56 PM ^

I should also add that Jeremy Woo noted that this could potentially mean he already has a guarantee from a team about his placement in the draft.

Kind of doubt that's the case here.

bluesalt

May 11th, 2022 at 8:51 AM ^

I wouldn’t be sure about those doubts.  He declared for the draft only 10 days ago.  If the purpose was  to learn more information but likely return to school, would he decline a combine invite, which is the best opportunity for him to do learn more about his draft stock?

I think he’s got a promise from someone at the end of the first round.

 

AppleFritters4Life

May 10th, 2022 at 10:02 PM ^

Im confused, why would he not do the combine, isnt that the point of putting hos name in the draft? He can back out before the draft, if he changes his mind. I would at least go through the combine and get suggestions and advice, even if I plan to return. 

ESNY

May 10th, 2022 at 10:03 PM ^

Having a hard time figuring out why you would believe declining an invite to the combine would make it more likely he would return. Unless he fully withdrew from the draft, declining the invite generally means he has an agreement/promise with a team that they’ll draft him so he pullls out of the combine

njvictor

May 10th, 2022 at 10:09 PM ^

Out of the two likely reasons for not accepting a combine invite, you really think the more likely outcome is that he got a draft promise from a team? Nothing about his performance this year makes me think that. The only possible reason would be that some team is enamored by what they saw from him at Montverde

nerv

May 11th, 2022 at 12:38 AM ^

While I see the logic you use I'm going to counter with this. The entire point of putting your name into the draft and returning to college after is to work with NBA personnel, show what youre capable of in person, then get feedback on what NBA teams want from you. You do this at the combine. 

I can see a team falling in love with his shooting form. He really does have excellent mechanics and at 6'8 that is a recipe for a dangerous floor spacer. And at 19 there is a lot of time for improvement.

gobluem

May 11th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^

Once early entrants are in the draft, they're required to get written feedback as well. 

 

That's exactly what Dickinson got after his freshman year. Houstan almost certainly got his feedback. 

 

My suspicion is that it was not good, and there's no point of going to the combine, and he's returning to school. Seems way more likely than a team guaranteeing they'll take him in the 1st round

 

But, that could be true as well

WeimyWoodson

May 10th, 2022 at 10:52 PM ^

It only takes one team who sees something in him. Similar to GS with Poole. Based on the wording of the news, to me, it sounds way more likely he got a promise from a team and will stay in the draft. 
The ultimate goal for these kids is to get to the league, not play for Michigan (or whatever college they go to). He had the plan of being a one-and-done the whole time. He gets the promise, he wants to be gone, he gone. 

JamieH

May 10th, 2022 at 11:12 PM ^

Sorry, IMO Poole showed way more potential than Houstan when he got drafted.  I thought Poole looked like a guy that was on his way to putting it all together.  Houstan looked like a guy who needs to learn how to shoot when conditions aren't absolutely perfect.

Admittedly Poole was also a sophomore. 

WeimyWoodson

May 11th, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^

I understand what you're saying and your perspective but you're not an NBA scout for every team. If a team toward the bottom of the order thinks he's a steal since so few teams are thinking about drafting him, it makes sense to promise him that they'll pick him and then stash him/develop him. Way more sense than thinking he will be awesome down the road, then watch him blow up as a sophomore and then lose him in the following draft.  

TheBlueAbides

May 11th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^

Agreed, but all it takes is one team or scout to think he was not used properly at Michigan and believe he is a Diamond in the rough. There is a reason he was a top recruit, and the nba drafts on potential all the time. Maybe someone thinking they can make him into a Duncan Robinson? He’s also really young so time to develop him as a g league project if a team drafts him. I personally don’t think I would draft him right now, and don’t think he is ready for the league, but you just never know.

njvictor

May 11th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^

He can’t shoot though. He shot 35% from 3 and could only make wide open looks on home court. On the road and or off a screen or off the dribble and he was terrible. He should have more spacing in the NBA to get those looks, but I would be shocked if someone game him a promise. Look at Duncan Robinson who is a much more developed and refined version of Houstan. He just got benched in the playoffs for not being able to defend and he’s probably a better defender than Houstan 

JonnyHintz

May 11th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^

Houstan absolutely can shoot. He had a wonky year but there’s enough data from playing elite competition in high school and internationally to say with ease that the kid can shoot the rock. Enough scouting to adequately assess his mechanics. 
 

Now you’re comparing him to Duncan… Houstan is a freshman. Duncan was playing D3 basketball as a freshman. There’s no way to compare the two right now. 

JonnyHintz

May 11th, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^

The entire scouting experience of him coming out of high school and international play. Had a wonky year struggling with confidence but he has the mechanics to be a consistent shooter. 
 

This isn’t some under the radar kid. Played at an elite high school, played against elite competition, played international ball. He was HEAVILY scouted and was considered one of the premier shooters of the class. 

KBLOW

May 11th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^

What could he even be projected to offer an NBA team in a few years? Seems like by the time he's good enough to be pulled from the G league to the NBA, there'll be a boatload of better players ahead of him, both just coming out of college and also competing against him in the G league. 

bluesalt

May 11th, 2022 at 8:57 AM ^

A promise keeps teams from seeing him at the combine, and typically also involves limiting the other teams he would take visits to.  Accordingly another team who might be interested can’t get the info to be sure they want him higher.  They can still pick him (and it happens sometimes).  But Houstan would have a drafting floor of the team that promised him, and a ceiling of whomever wants to gamble on him without working him out.

My bet would be the Spurs having promised him.  They have two picks in the 20s and three 1sts overall, and are known for picking guys they are willing to develop for 2-3 years.  Makes sense for them to take a gamble.

Imjesayin

May 11th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^

How or why would anyone rely on such a promise? The team could change their mind on draft day when another higher-valued prospect becomes available. Then what? He’d be screwed because no one else would take him. He’s be unable to return to school. That sounds like a crazy-stupid risk. 

But I still don’t understand why he wouldn’t still work out. What’s the risk? If he tests great, he might get interest higher up on the board from other teams for more money.

The only risk, I guess, is not testing great and that team promised you no longer wants you. But then he should’ve (and will) go/ne back to school anyway if that’s the case. And he hasn’t risked his eligibility like he would if he stays in the draft and isn’t drafted.