Bubble Watch - Saturday's Rooting Guide
So, it goes without saying, today is a massive, massive day when it comes to Michigan's tourney chances. Most Bracketologists are saying that while today isn’t a MUST win for Michigan, it becomes very difficult if they don’t win today. Before we get into today’s rooting guide, let’s start with Michigan:
Current Net Ranking: 64 (right below Arizona State and right above Oklahoma, remember that for later)
Quad 1 record: 2-8
Our game today against Indiana is at 6pm on ESPN. Indiana is currently #20 on the Net Rankings, so this would qualify as another Quad 1 win.
Alright, let’s dive into today’s rooting guide (sorry this is going to be a long one with lots of action today)
Pitt @ Florida State (12pm EST on ESPNU) – Our neutral court win against Pitt is our only good non-conference win and Pitt is ever so close to another Quad 1 win. Pitt is currently 52 on the Net rankings and will move to Quad 1 if Pitt hits 50. Gotta have this win against a sub-par FSU team. Go Panthers!
Penn State @ Maryland (12pm on BTN) – This game is an interesting one but a pretty easy call. We want Maryland in this game. We’re fighting with PSU for a spot in the tourney plus Maryland is one of our Quad 1 wins but are only 2 spots above being a Quad 2. Need the Terps today.
Georgia @ Kentucky (12pm on ESPN) – Another unusual game. Yes, we lost to Kentucky so we want that loss to look as good as possible but we’re also fighting with Kentucky for a spot in the tourney. We’d prefer Georgia to win this one.
Kansas @ Oklahoma (1pm on CBS) – This is a big one for Michigan. While Oklahoma is only 12-12, they are just behind Michigan on the Net rankings and have 4 Quad 1 wins. We want the Jayhawks.
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame (2pm on ACC Network) – I debated putting this one down but figured it couldn’t hurt. VT is a few spots above us on the Net ranking but appear to be below is in the bubble line. A loss to a bad Notre Dame team would basically knock them fully out. I hate ND, but you can do the math on this one.
Clemson @ North Carolina (2pm on ESPN2) – Really interesting game here. Clemson is on the other side of the bubble with 2 Quad 4 losses but Carolina has been sliding a bit as of late. I’m going with Clemson to win here as UNC is the last team in according to Joe Lunardi & Jerry Palm.
Vanderbilt @ Florida (3:30pm on SEC Network) – Florida is about 3 spots ahead of us on the bubble line. A loss to Vandy would likely help us leapfrog them. Pretty simple one here, Go Vandy!
Wisconsin @ Nebraska (4pm on BTN) – Big one here. On most brackets, Wisconsin is either the last team in or the first team out. A loss to the Huskers would qualify as a pretty bad loss for them. Yes, we still have two games against the Badgers and we want a chance for some Quad 1 wins in those games, we also have to worry about Wisconsin getting in over us. I’m rooting for the Huskers in this one.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (6pm on ESPN2) - Oklahoma State is probably the hottest team in college hoops right now. They’ve won 4 in a row & 6 of their last 7. But on most brackets, they’re right around the cut line. We’d prefer Iowa State to win this one.
USC @ Oregon State (6pm on PAC 12 Network) – Much like Oklahoma State & Wisconsin, USC is on the cut line on many brackets. Other than a bit of a better overall record, USC and Michigan have very similar profiles. An Oregon State win today would change that. Go Beavers!
Mississippi State @ Arkansas (6pm on ESPNU) – I’d argue outside of our game, this game is likely the most important for Michigan today. Mississippi State is just above us in most seed lines. We want the Razorbacks in this game so we can jump MSU (that feels good to say lol)
Arizona State @ Cal (8pm on PAC 12 Network) – Another big one here. No other way to put it, Cal is one of the worst Power 5 teams this year. They’ve won 3 games all season. ASU losing @ Cal would be a horrible loss on their profile and we’re right by them on the seed line. Go Bears!
Seton Hall @ Villanova (8pm on FS1) – Big, big game here. Seton Hall is just ahead of us on the Net rankings (59) and most bracket lines. A loss to Villanova would be a big help for us to jump them.
Wyoming @ Boise State (8pm on CBSSN) – Boise State is near the cut line on most brackets. A loss to Wyoming would be a bad one for them, go Cowboys!
Texas A&M @ LSU (8pm on SEC Network) – Texas A&M is another team that is right by us on most seed lines. They have a good Net ranking (37) but already have 2 Quad 4 losses. A loss to LSU would be another hit to their resume. Go Tigers.
Oregon @ UCLA (10pm on ESPN) – For those night owls, this will be a key game to keep an eye on. Oregon is barely on the outside looking in on most brackets. A win over UCLA would likely have them more comfortable. We want the Bruins in this one.
Colorado @ Utah (10pm on FS1) – Last by not least, Utah is just ahead of us on most seed lines and close on the Net rankings as well. A loss to Colorado here would help Michigan. Go Buffs!
Whew, that was a long one but thanks everybody for the comments & feedback on these posts. Go Blue!
February 11th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
This is seriously impressive work on your part. Much obliged!
February 11th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
Thank you for posting! I love these
February 11th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
This goes back a while… “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Sun Tzu
February 11th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
Thanks for doing these. Is it possible to add the lines in future editions?
February 11th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
Yea I should be able to handle that! Thanks for the suggestion
February 11th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Much appreciated!
February 11th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
Really solid stuff here True Blue, nice work. I think if you put in a few more details like the lines, team records, Net ranking, projected seed, etc., this could be front page caliber material down the stretch. The Mgoblog overlords are going to have to put you on payroll.
February 11th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Good stuff. Those two noon games are probably the biggest. Come on, Panthers and Terps.
February 11th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Good summary...thanks!
February 11th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
Beat the Hoosiers
February 11th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
Very big day for us. If we can hold serve tonight, there's a good chance we'll end the day with four Q1 wins. If you look at the NET rankings, most of the bubble teams above us don't have that many.
February 11th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
So, I just plugged all the teams from above we want to win into my handy betting app, and if we do an 18 game UM parlay with just $5, we would win a cool $97,287,000. Easy money....
February 11th, 2023 at 2:23 PM ^
You're 3-0 so far!
✅ Maryland over PSU
✅ Pitt over FSU
✅ Georgia over Kentucky
February 11th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think we might prefer that Wisconsin win today. We want Michigan's games against them to be Q1 (away) and Q2 (home) and the Badgers' NET (73) is very close to dropping down a level (it needs to stay better than 76). A loss to Nebraska would likely torpedo it and make those games Q2 and Q3 and thus less impactful.
February 11th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Nebraska is at 102 in net, if they win today they'll probably get in the top-100 and knock Wisconsin off the bubble, making the UM wins look better as well.
February 11th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
True, but Michigan can achieve knocking Wisconsin off the bubble themselves by sweeping the Badgers. Nebraska's NET can't make any meaningful change; it's locked in as a Q3 game (would need to reach 75 for Q2 status). Wisconsin's could drop and make Michigan victories over them less impactful from a resume standpoint.
February 11th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Top 100 doesn’t matter that much. Having UW in Q1 territory is a bigger deal.
February 11th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Correct. Top-100 really only matters for neutral court games. Otherwise, it's a pretty meaningless figure.
February 11th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Thanks for this great analysis. I would agree that we want Kentucky to lose, if they were more like say Purdue, a lock and a 1-seed, then we would root for them to make them look better.
February 11th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
I'm going to parley everything! I figure I'd make about 7 grand and even better we'd make a big leap to the positive side of the bubble.
February 11th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Great synopsis, OP!
God, I love college basketball this time of year. After we take care of business against IU, I think I'll settle in with a few cold ones for that Seton Hall-'Nova game.
Nothing quite like a B1G-Big East doubleheader!
February 11th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Amen to this! This next 6 weeks or so is my favorite time of the year in sports!
February 11th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
Yes indeed---the final stretch of the regular season in both college hoops and hockey, followed by tournament season.
It doesn't get much better than this!
February 11th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
I'm rooting for us and against Wisconsin. Can't get worked up over the rest.
February 11th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Nice work. Much appreciated!
February 11th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
I love these posts!
Thanks so much!
Go Blue!
February 11th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
Wow…great work! Thank you
February 11th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
I think the only way Michigan can get in is to win the B1G tournament. Not out of the question if their 3 point shooting is hot!
February 11th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
If Michigan wins 6 more games out of their final 8-10 (BTT advancement-dependent), UM should be in good shape at ~20-13, 13-7 B1G/14-8 post-tourney, with ~6-7 Q1 wins (have 5 more regular-season and almost certainly 1-2 more BTT as a neutral court, and Pitt may have us at 3 already). There is (albeit small) a margin of error outside of running the table, as you suggest.
February 11th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
Usually 19 wins is good enough to get in from the big-10, I think 20 would put them on the right side of the bubble.
February 11th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
Yeah, that's why I believe the magic number is 6, to get to 20 wins. A down B1G (but who isn't down, honestly? Still ranked 2nd-best conference, but I digress), a Q4 L, and no nonconference Q1A Ws compound the issues this year. May get in at 19, but 20 to be safe. The point remains, though, in my response to the assertion of needing to run the table and win the BTT is just asinine. Missing the big picture and bubble situation entirely with that broad-brush erroneous take.
February 11th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
Lol. The only way?
February 11th, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^
About as good of a start as we could have asked for!
Pitt, Maryland, and Georgia all win.
We'll take it!
February 11th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
Make it 4 for 4. Kansas destroys the Sooners in Norman.
February 11th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
Just win our game and we don’t have to worry about anyone else
February 11th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
We do need some other results to make room for us in the Tourney though I agree if we don’t build up our resume it won’t matter what else happens.
February 11th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
Your work is incredible and much appreciated! I certainly hope Michigan holds up their end of the bargain today to reward your efforts
February 11th, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
I agree with the person who said Wisconsin winning this particular game may be good for us. We need the Q1 opportunity and the home game to be Q2. We can take care of Bucky ourselves in our games with them to knock them off the bubble.
February 11th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Yea it’s a good callout. I was conflicted on that one. The good news is, no matter what happens in that game, it has good implications for us.
February 11th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
Great stuff.
At this point UM doesn't feel like a team that will back into a spot based on resume; if they're getting in it'll have to be because they closed strong and 18-19 games plus a BTT game. So getting a win today is huge because it gets them to 9 conference wins and is a major opponent.
February 11th, 2023 at 5:25 PM ^
Michigan just got another game to fall their way. Florida just lost at home to Vanderbilt! Vandy entered today #99 on the Net rankings.
5 games our way so far out of 7 thus far!
February 11th, 2023 at 5:42 PM ^
Can we get Tominaga from Nebraska to transfer to the good guys? Dude is money from three.
February 11th, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^
Down goes Gard!!
February 11th, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
This is great. Thanks for doing these. Makes me a believer!
February 11th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
Sadly the bubble is no more. NIT seems like the destination at this point.