BTN Analyzes Michigan's 2017 Schedule
The analysis on this piece is nothing noteworthy and the writing isn't great, but May is one of the slowest of OT months so I figured might as well put some content out there.
The Big Ten Network's writers are in the process of doing a 2017 schedule analysis for all of the Big Ten teams in alphabetical order and it was just Michigan's turn: http://btn.com/2017/05/10/2017-football-schedule-analysis-michigan-wolverines/
In BTN's opinion, here are some highlights of our schedule:
- Hardest Game: vs. Ohio State
- Easiest Game: vs. Rutgers (LOL that Rutgers is easier than either of our Group of 5 non-conference opponents)
- Best Chance to Pull an Upset: @Penn State
- Best Chance to Be Upset: @Indiana (vs. Air Force was an honorable mention).
- "Must Win": vs. Michigan State
Again, nothing groundbreaking or suprising, besides maybe Indiana as the pick of most likely to upset us. I understand that the timing is primed for a let down (sandwiched between a rivalry game vs. MSU and a night road game at Penn State), but IU seems to be on a down swing given the staff turnover and Bloomington is one of the few places where "being on the road" doesn't make much difference.
Minnesota at home feels more dangerous than Indiana to me.
Michigan might be favored by the week of the Penn State game.
...that is the joke. Calling Indiana the most likely to upset us? Did they not hear that Kevin Wilson was fired? That his offense has been replaced by...wait for it...Mike DeBord? Indiana will be a dumpster fire.
I'd say at Maryland. Then maybe home against Minn.
Assuming we're about pick 'em or dogs against UF, PSU, Wisc and OSU, there aren't many other games that we have even a decent chance of losing.
they are tough to plan and play against and also hate their constant chop blocking on the O line. I would have this game high on the possible upset list, definitely way before Indiana.
Young, inexperienced defense v Air Force is a little worrying. I'm sure we will be able to score, but I would feel much better for our defense if that one was late in the year.
but this is the type of a game where one key injury or flukey play could make it MUCH closer than it normally would.
I believe that is very possible being that Michigan and OSU are the most talented teams in the big ten. We shall see how it plays out, but Michigan goes as far as the 0-line and QB play will take them. Just like last year as I feel the defense will be solid and probably top three every year Coach Brown is here. Even though this team is young, I feel it will be more physical with teams. Whoever is the QB must hit the long ball as Harbaugh constantly runs plays to set it up. If they can do that this team is dangerous and will be favored in more games then they are know.
that was rather big news when it happened in February - how did you miss that?
On-line articles NEVER have mistakes - they are always perfectly researched!
What if it was played at Ford Field and run by Michigan, with a Michigan crowd, home uniforms, just like a game at Michigan Stadium?
Just curious on your philosophy. Because in the literal since, yes...the UF game is a road game.
However, when using sports terms...it is not. It's a neutral site game. It's a 50/50 crowd (in theory) and neither team is on its home campus. So sure, it's literally a road game for both teams...which in sports is called a neutral site game.
FYI - when a QB throws a "bomb"...it's not an explosive. It's a deep pass.
Yost, that rant was long enough that you had time to question what you were even writing.
I bet you're a lot of fun at parties...
Why is MSU a must-win? They're not gonna be competing for the division. PSU and OSU are more must-win
Let's just agree we'd rather they beat MSU, OSU, and PSU.... Hell, if there was an "NSU" to insert between MSU and OSU, we'd want to beat the hell out of them, too.
Well yeah. I wanna beat them, I wanna beat them by 40. And I think we will. But "must-win"? That's like saying Indiana is a must-win. They're not a threat.
MSU is a must win. Beating them this year, combined with another down year, could cripple them for a decade plus.
When I think of "Must Win", I think more of what would happen if we were to lose....
I cannot even imagine how horrendous it would be to lose twice in a row in Ann Arbor to them, coming off a 3-9 season (when we will be ranked in the Top 15 preseason).
It would be a disaster. We NEED one more win over them in a row in order to finally erase the stench of the 1-7 stretch from 2008-2015.
I guess when I look at our schedule I see a number of games more "must-win" than MSU. If we lose to MSU but win the rest of our conference games we will win the division. MSU was a 3-9 team last year and very easily could be worse next year. OSU is the must-win game IMO.
Agree. Michigan could withstand a loss to MSU and still win the division assuming they beat PSU and OSU. MSU isn't going to contend in the East and won't be in a position to claim any potential tie breaker.
Sorry to break it to you guys, but if we can't beat MSU at home given the trash heap they've become, there is not a chance we get anywhere near 3-0 vs PSU, Wisconsin and OSU.
Well that's not the point. If you have to choose a game you absolutely cannot lose, the game against a bad MSU team is not it.
I think your discussion has established that MSU is probably a must-win game for psychological purposes, but is probably not a must-win game in terms of conference championship contention.
I think it also depends on the context of what is necessary and expected for a "successful season".
Most rational people would consider this season a success if we finished 10-2 or 9-3 but didn't win the conference. Also, nobody outside of some among our own fanbase are "expecting" Michigan to win the Big Ten this year.
Last year everyone thought it would be Michigan or Ohio State; this year, the general consensus is Penn State or Ohio State. But hey, the expected winner hasn't won since arguably 2010 or 2011.
Anyways, I can't think of a definition of a successful season that includes losing to MSU at home given where their program is at.
that aren't planning to win them all.
For us, every single game is "Must Win," because the goal is a National Championship.
But, by your measure, I can't imagine being more horrified (or hindered for the future) by another loss than I would be if we lost to MSU... so I can see that.
We'll be fine and generally on an upward trajectory win or lose. I think MSU losing again and doing nothing in conference again will be the death knell for their national aspirations. At this point they can point last year as a 'down year', another one is a pattern
Did you not hear about their moral victory against us?
They're insufferable regardless. They went 3-9 last year, finished 6th in the division and lost at home to us and the only thing they can talk about is how Harbaugh can't finish better than 3rd. They'll talk shit regardless of whether or not their team can back it up.
and they are down. If we were to loose to them it would be crippling for the season. We must beat them and beat them bad.
I totally agree with this. The sad thing is Harbaugh is 2 plays away from being 3-1 against the rivals.
Agreed.
Their schedule is also harder this year. Road games at Iowa and Ohio State, plus a potentially tricky road game at Northwestern. (Northwestern is the only Big Ten team besides Michigan that James Franklin has played multiple times but hasn't beat; also, a lot of people are picking NW as a sleeper pick for the Big Ten West, I think they return most of their production/will be experienced).
Also, if I was a Penn State fan, I'd be scared of the MSU game. Nittany Lions have to travel to East Lansing after playing Michigan and Ohio State in back to back weeks, timing is horrendous.
While I can see this happening, cuz OSU is looking for blood, I wonder how PSU plays them if the week before they drop that whiteout game to UM. Does that suck the life out of the rest of their season? Or do they convert that pain to must-win survival mode and take it to OSU at the shoe? Would love to see the latter. PSU is the must-win strategic game on the schedule.
their coach...dosen't exactly instill fear in me or HARBAUGH.
Yeah, me either...
They lost 3 games last year. Lets not forget it took some very lucky breaks for PSU to win the Big Ten. IMO they are at best 4th most likely to win the big ten this year (UofM, OSU, Wisc).
That's really only true of the first half of the season and more specifcally the Minnesota and OSU games, which they won in fluky fashion.
After the OSU game, they closed out the B1G regular season by beating everyone by at least 2 TDs. They beat Iowa by 4 TDs, (and Iowa completely shut down Michigan), put up 45 against Indiana (which contained Michigan even before the snow storm), went on a 31-3 run against Wisconsin in the title game, put up 49 against USC in the Rose Bowl (USC was widely regarded as the hottest team in the country at that point) before blowing the game.
I get that you are not allowed to give credit to PSU here on MGoBlog, but they turned into a good team by the end of last year and I expect them to be better this year. They return almost everyone of note and they will be in the second year of OC Moorhead's system. If Michigan had the same season last year and returned virtually their entire roster, MGoBlog would be calling for a national championship. In fact, I think that's what happened after Harbaugh's first season.