Beilein Sorcery or Desperate Heave

Submitted by RealJabrill on

With the surprising departures of 3 starters from the NC team bolting, jumping, and fleeing to the NBA and 1 HUGE cog from the last two years squad throwing the deuces to the program, we ended up scooping up a huge class.  Next years team is going to be super interesting to follow and analyze with so much uncertainty.  We went from having a stud team to a total rebuild just like that.  I trust the coaching staff to do their damnest to mold a masterpiece.  And I trust the players to bust their humps to play their best ball the entire way. 

But does any on else feel like we're betting the farm on the development of severely underrated players vs. banking the schollies for some higher caliber talent for the future.  We might squeeze ourselves out of recuits for the next cycle if things dont all fall into place.  On the one hand, we'll have players with 1 year in the program.  On the other, we could have first rate talent coming in to bring the wood to michigan hoops.  

We wont have guaranteed scholarships left if we offer Huff (or whomever).  We'll be recruiting and make offers contingent on Levert, Beifeldt, and Maybe Irving and Walton making the super leap.

I know its all conjecture and BS but I get into the psyche of it.  FUCK ! I love michigan ball.

kyeblue

April 29th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

Colton seems to quit basketball altogether and Brundidge warms bench in Detroit. i believe that it is more about team chemistry rather than playing time. Same can be applied to Smotrycz, who would've got his 15-20 minutes had he stayed. He is not getting more minutes in Maryland, at least not by much. 

Spike does not play as much minutes but no one thinks that he is at risk of attrition, and same can be said about Vogrich and Bielfeldt is returning for his 4th year. It is hard to predict MAAR and Dawkins but playing time is not the deciding factor. 

 

 

Ghost of BCook…

April 28th, 2014 at 10:53 PM ^

Total rebuild is a little inaccurate when you are returning a pre-season All-B1G guy and a sophomore Indiana Mr. Basketball. 

Plus, it's not like Bielein is stocking his roster with underrecruited guys.  He is supplementing the potential 2/3 year guys with 4 year players, which should ease the turnover but still allow for consistent success.  

 

ThadMattasagoblin

April 28th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^

When has beilein said that he will not take 1 and done players? We offered Cliff Alexander and Kevon Looney among others. Just because we haven't gotten them doesn't mean we wouldn't take them.

goblue20111

April 28th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^

Beilein forgot more about basketball in the past 5 minutes than most of us will ever know. Can everyone relax? Has it even been a month since the title game? Jesus.

alum96

April 28th, 2014 at 10:57 PM ^

I amgoing to focus my questioning of a coach or staff on a program that has not been to a NC game within 13 months and won two conference titles in 3 years.  IBIT.

In a perfect world we get only 5 stars and they stay 3+ years.  That's just not reality.  A year ago Nik was not projected to leave early and Horford was not projected to transfer.  So Coach B recruited for 3 openings (Mitch, GR3, Jordan).  Obviously by February it became clear Nik had a great chance to go pro and by that time you are not getting 5 stars or 4 stars - those guys have been in recruiting battles with other coaching staffs for year(s).  Even Dawkins we had to steal away from a mid major who had been on him for 2 years. 

The only complaint I could see anyone having is taking BOTH MAAR and Dawkins.  Huff is a gem if we can secure - if you can offer a 45% FG, 40% FT, 82% FT who rebounds 5 per game and has done it the NCAA level and we dont have to suffer through his growing pains of a freshman that is as good as a 4 star , 50th ranked player for 2 years from these eyes.

So Coach had late attrition and literally no backup behind Caris - he had to do something.  And with how late in the process these changes with Nik and Horford happened he had a small window with a limited availaiblity of players.

If he should have banked 1 scholarship for next year is really the only "question" of any of this. And see first sentence of this post. 

HartAttack20

April 28th, 2014 at 11:01 PM ^

I know I wouldn't mind getting some more players on the team that will stick around and let Beilein develop them, but it's also hard to pass up on the top high school talent. It just seems like Beilein really prefers to develop guys so I guess I hope he does that. Or does whatever the hell he wants. Let's be honest Beilein is better than as, and he knows it.

alum96

April 28th, 2014 at 11:09 PM ^

Well MAAR did come of nowhere - the story on mlive last week was that a contact that Beilein had known since 1978 in PA called him and told him about MAAR a few months ago and that started the relationship.  I don't know how long they have been scouting Dawkins but you can be sure somewhere around January Beilein had to know he had a great chance that he'd have a 4th opening (Nik S)  and began scouring anew or "re-opening" channels for a SG/SF. 

There are just not that many top 100 players you are going to swoop in on, beginning a relationship on Jan 28th, 2014 and take away from a BCS level competitor(s) who have been building a relationship for 2+ years.

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 11:05 PM ^

Let's say the coaches banked scholarship offers, this is your roster:

1 - Walton / Spike

2 - Levert

3 - Irvin / Chatman

4 - Wilson / Bielfeldt

5 - Donnal / Doyle

Not having the extra wing player would be fatal next year if you get injury/foul trouble.  At least 1 guy was necessary to take.  If anything you would've banked 1 scholarship by taking MAAR or Dawkins, but they really had to take 1 extra wing player.

Genzilla

April 29th, 2014 at 8:31 AM ^

I agree that's where he should play in the long run, that's why I listed him there initially. But being able to play him at the 4 next year is better for the team, lessening the load that Wilson will have to bear.

nowicki2005

April 28th, 2014 at 11:17 PM ^

will not have the chance to leave early. you need super athletes at the PG position in the NBA. Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker would tear him a new one, john wall, list goes on.

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 11:22 PM ^

I wouldn't go so far as to say that he won't leave early.  Leaving after your Junior year is still considered leaving early.  Also, it's fair to say that we didn't see a lot of what Walton could do this year.  He was the 3rd or 4th option at best when he was on the floor and he was only a freshman.  He was smart enough to play within himself and to not try to do too much.  i expect a big jump from Walton and Irvin this year as they're both supremely talented and they both have a year of experience under their belt.

And of course the Beilein Sophomore Leap Certainty Principle

arsenal926

April 28th, 2014 at 11:32 PM ^

Other Starting pg's-Beverley, Felton, Rubio, even Trey are all comparable athletes to Walton. If he makes a sophomore leap similar to Morris, there's no reason he couldn't go pro as early as next year.  The way I see it playing out: Walton, Irvin, and Chatman will all have decisions to make and LeVert should plan on going pro next season. Heck, even Mark Donnal and DJ Wilson could be pro prospects within two years. 

blueball97

April 29th, 2014 at 8:05 AM ^

If he makes a Trey Burke leap then we will basically have Trey Burke (two years ago) and Nik Stauskas (this year) on the same starting 5 wth more athletic 5, a true stretch 4 and a more versataile THJ at the 3.  Walton (the new Trey Burke), Levert (the new Stauskas), Doyle (the more athltic Morgan, Donnal (the first true stretch 4), and Irvin (the next Levert or Stauskas).

not TOM BRADY

April 28th, 2014 at 11:33 PM ^

They return Levert Walton and Irvin. And they are bringing in two top 100 guys. Along with a rs freshman who was a top 100 guy. And a coach who develops players with the best of them.



We will be fine.

Rodriguesqe

April 29th, 2014 at 12:01 AM ^

we are at the strange nexus of reasonable angst and unquestionable competence.

put your feet up and enjoy the ride. im glad the gone are gone. 2015's going to be a very exciting year.

reanimator

April 29th, 2014 at 12:51 AM ^

Why do people think we need tons of 2015 slots? I think we need 2 : a combo to replace LeVert and a 3rd rotational big.

Jalen Brunson is leaving B1G country. We didn't watch him at EYBL and no home visit despite every other team doing so. MSU just offerred Jarvis Johnson. Illinois heard they are in 5th place. He wants to start immediately. His dad is an East Coast legend and is close to Jerrance Howard. Kansas, Villanova or UCONN. 

We are in great shape and maybe lead for Derryck Thornton Jr. Also, Jamal Murray and Tyus Battle. All 3 will have offers this summer and were watched thiroughly this past weekend. Personally, I'd like two of those guys than any 2 in 2015.

Grandstaff or Coleman + Manuel in 2015

2016>2015

Derryck Thornton Jr/Quentin Goodin/Devearl Ramsey/Eron Gordon/Cassius Winston + Jamal Murray/Tyus Battle + TJ Leaf /Matthew Moyer/Seth Towns

Who says no? 

A2Fan

April 29th, 2014 at 2:19 AM ^

. . . When finding diamonds in the rough that will buy into his system, play the underdog card & over-achieve developing individual & team skills.

 

This is Who he is . . .

This is what he Does.

BigBlue02

April 29th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^

McGary, Robinson, and Irvin would like a word with you. Seriously, how many 5 star guys can we get before this idea that Beilein can't land talent will die?

mdonley

April 29th, 2014 at 2:28 AM ^

Dawkins is a future star. Kid is badly underated by the recruiting services. He's gonna end up being one of the most athletic people we've had in a long,long time and I predict by year two he will be a All Big Ten player.

TheNema

April 29th, 2014 at 3:21 AM ^

This is the first time I've ever seen Jon Horford's overall impact being referred to has ALL CAPS "HUGE." Probably will be the last.

Jeff09

April 29th, 2014 at 6:36 AM ^

Given the question of 'who hasn't Beilein developed?' is a much more difficult one that 'who has he developed?', I like our chances. I'll keep betting the farm on him until he gives me a good reason not to

blueball97

April 29th, 2014 at 7:57 AM ^

Looking at the history of players under the tutelage of this staff and the development of said players, I think it is safe to say Beilein knows what he is doing. Also, banking scholarships isn't a great idea because, for what ever reason, lately high end kids seem enthralled with going to KU or UK or other schools rather than come to Michigan. If you look at next year's starting 5, 2 guys saw major minutes and a 3rd significant minutes. I would think Levert adding another 20 lbs makes him unguardable (he basically was last year). Walton and Irvin will be strong 2 and 3 options. Doyle will be an upgrade over Horford even if he is just a freshman and Donnal appears to be a more athletic Pittsnoggle. That is a pretty bad ass starting 5 with a strong upperclassman leader, something this team hasn't had since Beilein got here. You can say Novak, Douglas and JMo, but none of those guys have Levert's ability to take over games. I probably over estimate UM because I am a homer and a die hard, but I see it hard not for this team to be in the top 2-3 of the B1G next year. I think the Europe trip pays huge dividends in the fall. 

champswest

April 29th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

However, I could also see us slipping to Indiana 2013. They had good quality recruits, returned Yogi and added Vonleh (a lottery pick) and couldn't even make the NIT. (Yes, I know, the coaching is apples and oranges). The point is, with a young squad like ours, it is a fine line.

Dan84

April 29th, 2014 at 8:01 AM ^

It just committed to Indiana over an offer from Incarnate Word.

Desperation is not poaching two guys with offers from decent mid-majors (Dayton in Dawkins's case, VCU in MAAR's) who look like they have some potential but are not sure stars.

SECcashnassadvantage

April 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^

I just want our football team to win. It's nice for basketball to be doing well. I feel like some are acting like Spartan fans over the past 20 years. Everyone knows you care about football way more, regardless of what you say. Please God let Hoke pull his head out. Dantonio had his team sharp as a tack at their spring game. They knew what they were doing and where to be. They were talking about national championships and meant it. They have their sights higher than the Big Ten, which is abysmal. Why aren't we sharp at our spring walk through. We don't want Appalachian State to "see our cards." Or are we incapable of running a defense and offense that would look proper? Sorry I woke up mad. I will eat, have coffee and smile. Go Blue!

ericcarbs

April 29th, 2014 at 8:48 AM ^

I believe Ace or someone addressed this and we can EASILY have 2 scholarships next year with the possibiltiy of 3-5.

Biefiedlt doesn't have to renew his 5th year (VERY LIKELY). It isn't shady and Hoke has done it and no one bats an eyelash. Also he could transfer to a smaller school and start.

Hatch can get a hardship. I don't know if this will happen after one year with Beilein but if he can barely keep up in practice and they both agree to it, then might happen. Who knows.

 

And we have 3 players who could make the jump to the NBA.

LeVert - Been discussed a million times before.

Walton - If he makes the Sophmore jump, like Burke or Morris.

Irvin - Makes a jump like Nik did.

 

 

jblaze

April 29th, 2014 at 9:04 AM ^

To me, basketball recruiting is the Top X (maybe 100, maybe less) kids who have a very legit possibility of playing in the NBA and everybody else (I don't see a huge difference between 3 and 4* guys). I'm not sure how many top 100 kids Michigan can get in the next cycle, but historically, I think we only have Mitch in that group (he was heavily recruited by Duke). Therefore, I think we have to trust Beilein and believe in his "sorcery" because we aren't out UK-ing UK or Duke or Syracuse.

Space Coyote

April 29th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^

But I think the worry is that Michigan is in contention and in a pretty good place with two top 50 players for 2015 (Jalen Brunson and Jalan Coleman), and need to bring in a big as well. So the concern is there won't be room for that type of class (first offer is Trevor Manuel, a top 50 type with a fairly decent shot at). 

BlueKoj

April 29th, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^

Perhaps you're talking about something else. If you're talking top-100 for their class...Burke, Brundidge, GR3, MM, Nik, Irvin, Walton, Donnal and Chatman are all top-100 types. GR3, MM, Irvin, Walton and Chatman are all top-30 types

Space Coyote

April 29th, 2014 at 9:10 AM ^

When the coaches are successful - and Beilein has been very successful - we as fans don't like questioning them. "Trust the coaches" rings more true, partially with real reason. But I understand where the OP is coming from, and the people that are forming rebuttals.

In all honesty, I don't think picking up Dawkins or MAAR is optimal. Like in any sport, picking up lower rated guys is generally more risky, it's more unprobable even for Beilein to turn them into top players. That's just the facts of life, even with a track record like Beilein's for doing so. We then look at the track record we've had recently, who we are in on for 2015, a need for an extra big, and it would be nice to ensure those higher rated players - and thus probably more reliable and higher upside - have room to come to Ann Arbor. I mean, taking lower rated players isn't an omen for doom, but it does likely bring the ceiling down a little.

That said, Michigan needed wings. It's that simple. They just lost two and will likely lose another after next season (Caris). Michigan only had one replacement coming in, they needed bodies now. I think banking scholarships can work, but with the limited number of basketball scholarships, that becomes harder to justify. Maybe they should have taken one but not both? I think that's a fair debate. I don't think there's any debate they needed to take at least one. Include Huff? I think there is legit reason to debate that as well.

I personally don't mind offering two and banking one. I think that's probably my preference with needs for next year with the likely needs (PG, SG, C). I think it's worth an actual discussion rather than just jumping on the OP. Perhaps his wording wasn't best to draw out actual debate, but I think the intention is legit.

Erik_in_Dayton

April 29th, 2014 at 9:55 AM ^

My instinct is to trust the coaches, but Michigan's apparent standing with several highly rated 2015 guys (two of whom you name above) and need for a big man in that class makes me question whether adding both MAAR and Dawkins was the best course of action.  This issue is a reasonable one to discuss, if nothing else.  It's going to be a long time until football season, after all.