Basketball: up three at the end. Do you foul?
Strategy came up again in tonight's OK - Texas Tech game. TT up three with about 7 seconds to go, OK has the ball. Should TT foul OK to prevent the tying 3?
TT did foul. OK made the first free throw, missed the second deliberately and actually got the offensive rebound and had a couple of tips to tie but missed.
Seems like most coaches do not foul in this situation yet just about every commentator on TV favors the foul.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:13 PM ^
I would foul if there's less than 5 seconds on the clock.
I think the chances of a 3 pointer going in are much greater than:
First free throw goes in and offensive rebound and put back.
I wouldn't with more time because there's a chance at an offensive rebound gets back to the 3 point line and you just daggered yourself out of OT.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:14 PM ^
The answer for me is yes, foul. I’ve always kind of struggled with this but I think of it this way; if my team has the ball down 3 I would not want to be fouled.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:14 PM ^
If you watched the Michigan- wiscy game a few years ago, you know the answer. You foul.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:24 PM ^
Are we sure Ben Brust isn’t Brad Davison?
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:15 PM ^
What do the analytics say? I say don’t foul. The chances of a college kid getting hit with an intentional or in the act of shooting seem too high for my liking.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:24 PM ^
I doubt there are any trustworthy statistics here. With it down to seven seconds you send everyone out to defend the line and force them to make, at best, a 5% shot.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
There's a reason why commentators are what they are and not paid to be coaches.
It's not always the same answer depending on the situation. OK has 3 players nailing about 40% from 3, I'm sure that had something do with the decision.
December 22nd, 2020 at 10:45 PM ^
Good point. Also, and to that, are you sending out freshman players on defense or older, smarter-about-the-situation defenders who understand when and how to foul.
December 22nd, 2020 at 11:21 PM ^
When and how are the key thing here. If you end up fouling someone in the act of shooting, you risk 3-free throws or even 4-point play that could kill you. You should only foul if you have someone in a place where they can't jack up a shot suddenly or if they are in 2-point land and you can be sure they won't get a shot off.
December 23rd, 2020 at 8:18 AM ^
You're exactly right, Deer Hunter. Key question in all of this, is there a Stephen Curry clone on the other team? That should help guide your decision.
December 22nd, 2020 at 11:37 PM ^
This seems very situational involving:
- How much time left
- How good the other team is at 3PT shooting
- How much you trust your team to foul before the act of shooting
- How good your team is at rebounding
It’s easy to second guess specific decisions based on outcomes either way. But a coach has to decide all of the above with his specific team in the specific situations.
December 23rd, 2020 at 12:35 AM ^
I believe in fouling regardless of the situation.
December 23rd, 2020 at 5:39 AM ^
Yes, finally a comrade in arms that believes in equal opportunity fouling.
December 23rd, 2020 at 4:54 AM ^
He deliberately missed the free throw, & the OK player got fouled on the put back. So they went to the line again down 2 & missed the first one & had to deliberately miss again. Got a couple more high percentage chances to tie it... Sounds like a pretty good argument to not foul.
December 23rd, 2020 at 7:10 AM ^
I've coached for a while and I'd say don't foul. We've never been beat by not fouling, we did go to overtime once and won. Fouling can be disastrous. If you're going to do it, the objective better be crystal clear and coached multiple times in practice.
December 23rd, 2020 at 7:10 AM ^
Here's my very rudimentary view....
- The average 3PT FG% for the NCAA is 34%.
So if you foul...
- The average NCAA FT% is about 71% but assume there are only good shooters on the floor so let's bump it up to 75% to make the first FT.
- Normally the odds of an offensive rebound are probably 30-40% but considering the shooting team will sell out let's say it is 50% in this case.
- 50% chance the rebounding team makes a follow up 2PT FG.
0.75*0.5*0.5 = 18.75%
These numbers say to foul but as others have mentioned above, there must be very little time on the clock and can't foul in the act of shooting. However we all know the last few seconds of a basketball game can be chaos so it isn't this simple.
December 23rd, 2020 at 9:27 AM ^
December 23rd, 2020 at 7:58 AM ^
From my former basketball life this is a KYP decision for the coach. Know Your Personnel.
You’re assuming the opponent is in the bonus. If they have a deadeye sharpshooter, then yeah, maybe you foul in this situation.
December 23rd, 2020 at 9:09 AM ^
I would foul.
December 23rd, 2020 at 9:33 AM ^
Time matters the most in this discussion. Second thing that matters, imo, is are you home or away? If you are home I don’t foul because I can’t lose and OT favors me being at home. If I’m on the road I foul trying to get out of their with the win immediately.
December 23rd, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^
A 2012-13 game in Madison where a win would've put us at #1 in the country provides the answer to this question.
December 23rd, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^
Based on percentages I think fouling is right, but you do open the door to a make/intentional miss/O board/3 pointer sequence to surrender 4 points and lose.