The B1G West - coaching changes and the future - your thoughts?

Alright then... I'll just wipe it clean.  Not a lot of sleep the past few days.

Well, the West will probably cease to exist once the west coast interlopers arrive.  The conference will just be divisionless.  But those teams in particular.  Iowa and Northwestern are two of the most patient programs in existence and seem pretty content to be what they are.  Fleck has done a really good job at Minnesota, but there's a ceiling there and if they're smart, they'll come to the same conclusion Iowa has.  Illinois has a higher ceiling and honestly should always have been a better team than the crap they've put out there the last two decades.  Fickell is a very good hire for Wisconsin.  Rhule is the same for Nebraska.

I thought I had read the intent was eliminate divisions.  It would be nice to see the west look better - have a team or two that competitive in the rankings.  Helps the conference as a whole, but if they do eliminate divisions, it may not matter as much depending on how scheduling works.

Certainly feels like the West division teams will be getting better here in the next few years.  It's been almost comical how bad they've been the last decade.  Had to go back and research the last time a West team won the BIG and it was Wiscy in 2011-12.  

I think Fickell was a solid pickup for Wiscy and they could be a force to content with in a couple of years.

I'm not sold on Ruhle and it feels like Neb will end up right back where they were with Pelini - solid 7-5 to 9-3 team each year that's good but not elite.

With USC and UCLA coming into the fold, along with a big uptick in coaching prowess, the BIG is positioned to contend with the SEC pound for pound, IMO.

Rhule knows Texas and Nebraska had all their success when they recruited there well.

Fickell at Wisconsin is interesting... not sure what happens there, but hes gonna be a pain, recruiting in Ohio. He might not make it there, if he cannot get his types to come to Madison in time.

Beilema can really coach... thought at one point during Hoke, that he may the coach here one day, but caveats apply that I wasn't aware of at the time.

I admired Brohm for sticking with Purdue rather than making that jump to Louisville. We shouldn't overlook Saturdays game.

Most impressed by Bielema despite my snark towards him. All made improvements and will be more formidable in my opinion as they had been over time but Fitz and Ferentz need changes. Overpay up and comers from NFL staffs with recruiting connections as coordinators initially. There are some really bright folks out there awaiting their turn to shine.

Fleck is an example as are Weiss/Minter. And McDonald last year. I like OSU's staff and think they just need to pay more for their mercenaries!

Teams on the rise - Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois

If Wisconsin can change their NIL/Recruiting issues I think Fickell gets them back on track sooner rather than later.

Nebraska has a good hire in Rhule, and a 200million dollar upgrade to their facilities. Add in a passionate fanbase, donors, etc....they are a sleeping giant in my opinion.

Illinois will be Bielema Wisconsin light. If he doesnt shut the fuck up about the refs, he will dig his own grave though. 

Teams sinking fast - Minnesota, Iowa

Minnesota is a flash in the pan and I just dont see them gaining any ground vs Wisconsin and other regional schools. 

Iowa - Ferentz keeps them relevant, but they need some new blood to take them to the next level. Their offense turned it around as of late, but I think they will slowly burn as other teams in the league look to gain some ground.

Teams comfortably content - Purdue & Northwestern

Purdue is very well coached, and they will do Purdue things.

Ditto for Northwestern.

Both schools struggle with Recruiting and NIL....if they get some talent, watch out. 

The future - USC and UCLA are already on the up and up. USC will continue to flourish under Riley. UCLA has a good college coach, but I dont think they will be consistently ranked in the top 15. 

I have said for years that Lance Leipold should be the next coach at Iowa. Upon seeing him have success at Buffalo, it seemed like an easy choice given his successes at Wisconsin Whitewater. Every year I figure will be Ferentz' last and Leipold is ready to take over and elevate that program.

Fleck, good coach but he and/or Minnesota have a ceiling.

Fitzgerald IMO should win next year or step aside, or massive staffing changes. He's done great there. But seems he's not keeping up well with the changes in CFB.

Brohm, maybe the best coach in the west (at least until Fickell really takes over). Offensive and QB guru. But also randomly drops games he should not be dropping so I'm not sure if that's Brohm, or the ceiling at Purdue. Got a feeling he's taking off for Louisville next time that job is open and Purdue will go hire another offensive guru. As I understand it, Louisville's NIL game is leaps and bounds ahead of most where Purdue's is lacking.

Bielema has been easily the most successful coach at Illinois in two decades. I've for long been confused why Illinois is not a Big Ten West power given access to Chicago and Wisconsin and also no Northwestern academic restrictions. Bielema will elevate Illinois, but I don't think he's an elite coach. The next coach can turn them into a national power.

Fickell will be the best coach in the west once he gets moving. Wisconsin's best days are ahead.

Rhule, did a ton of good at both Baylor and Temple. But I'm feeling that Nebraska is just cursed. Don't get me wrong, this is a great hire. I'm just not convinced anyone will win there in the next decade.

1. Until he wants to retire. Betting they don't change the culture of great defense and pounding run game who that is no clue 

2. Until he wants to be done or takes a better job. NW has held Fitz back he's a very good coach IMO and could succeed at a place with more resources 

3. This is the guy I could see the most mobility with. Wouldn't surprise me to see him leave in less then five years for a blue blood of college football. 

4. Think he's another one able to have some mobility up the coaching ladder. This BTCG may spring board some of that movement. I'm saying he's there a while longer 

5-7 Solid to really good coaches. Any of them could catch fire and really flip the narrative in the Western division granted the Big Ten stays with divisions. With Michigan's reclaiming the glory days I think the Big Ten is way more the Big 2 and rest again. However I think the 3-6 teams in the conference and watching them fight for dominance and a shot to play for championships is going to be fascinating. I will be in the large minority with this take but I would love to see the divisions done a way with OSU and Michigan play week 1 every year with a chance at a rematch in the title game.  Never will happen but I think it would be interesting and keep the significance of the rivalry stronger then any other change I could see happening. 

I may be the rare optimist about the future of the B1G West, and personally I would prefer that the B1G keep the divisions and move Purdue to the East. 

First, I think the infusion of two wildly different offensive styles in UCLA and USC will mean that B1G West teams have to actually prep for anything other than sludgefartball, and could ultimately lead to teams that are more well-rounded (see: Michigan, Illinois). 
 

Second, I’m pretty optimistic about the Rhule and Fickell hires. While Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois may have ascended to permanent 8-4 status, I still think Nebraska and Wisconsin could make noise as soon as next year. Rhule has shown he can build out of a crater, and Wisconsin still has the general infrastructure of a contender so long as they make some improvements on the offensive side of the ball.

With this potential for renewed success in the West, I really would like to keep the divisions. It’s possible that some pretty interesting football bubbles up from the muck and can challenge the likes of UM and OSU. More importantly, I really hate the idea of having to potentially play OSU three times in 4-6 weeks (The Game, B1GCCG, playoffs). 

The West will be stronger but who knows if they will rise to challenge the big 3 in the East (Michigan, OSU, PSU)

1. Iowa - Ferentz - How much longer will he coach?   Who might be his successor? Ferentz pere et fils are NOT going anywhere until the AD and President and alumni / donors rise up and demand change - so far nothing.

2. Northwestern - Fitz - Despite a tough season, he's a favorite son in Evanston and has had success. Fitz had a down year but did embarrass Nebraska in a 'showcase' game - he has a lot of good will piled up.

3. Minnesota - Fleck and the Gophers are rowing the boat and starting seasons quickly. He can claim to be in contention and so unless something blows up he'll keep plugging away - if anything the UM success seems to give credibility to his running game approach.

4. Purdue - Brohm - Very creative offensively, and Michigan will see what he dials up this Saturday. We'll see - expectations don't seem high there, so this probably protects him for 2-4 years.

5. Illinois - Bielema -  The Illini started strong & positioned to win the West before three losses in their last four games.   It seems like a foundation is in place. His stock is rising.

6. Wisconsin - Fickell - We know his history in Columbus and continued to achieve success in Cincy.  I think he's a good hire and will be cheering for the Badgers during Michigan's bye week on October 28th (when the Buckeyes travel to Madison). ? Who knows what else is going on behind the scenes. 

7. Nebraska - Ruhle - will he be able to pick up the pieces that Frost left behind and assemble a team?  How long before they're competing for the B1G West - and, can he manage the expectations of the Cornhusker faithful. Some failed NFL coaches have done well going back to college - but have they hit their prior success level? He won't have Scott Frost plot-armor to shield him and the Neb fans will be loathe to give him as long and forgiving a run.

IIRC, both Fickell and Ruhle received eight year contracts at $ 7M (or more) per year.t

1. Iowa - Ferentz - How much longer will he coach?   Who might be his successor?

pretty sure iowa wants to "ferentz" it's way into the 22nd century. kirk --> brian --> brians kid --> brians grandkid. all will coach 20+ years regardless of record or actual coaching ability

the university already swept nepotism laws and section 8 housing issues under the rug for them so why not?

I'm not a fan of Nebraska and Wisconsin's hires. I think they were both home runs and they will improve both programs tremendously. When you add that to what Bielema is doing at Illinois and I think the conference as a whole is getting stronger

Seems like there's a lot of momentum for eliminating divisions. I wish we wouldn't, but I think that's what will happen. I'd like to give East-West a chance to continue, assuming UCLA and USC actually come.

My main reason for wanting to keep divisions is I really don't want an OSU rematch and I really don't want it back-to-back. And I don't want to move the game. But, one of those things is going to happen, unless someone completely falls apart (like we did when it was Leaders and Legends). Bad enough we're going to get them in rematches in the CFP, possibly this year.

Yes, the West has been bad and a joke and lately a doormat for the East's coronation. So what? That detracts from TV ratings--so I get why the conference cares--but it does not hurt my enjoyment of Michigan football. It might even enhance it.

USC should be, and can be, a power who will totally prop up the West. Nebraska, UCLA, and Wisconsin have enough history to be very competitive and have very capable coaches now. Even Iowa has that ability, once Ferentz leaves.

Minnesota, Purude (edit: noted above in another comment they would actually move to the East), and Illinois will never be dominant, but they have the ability and coaches to pop up every now and then. Even Fitz at Northwestern can occasionally make things interesting for the West.

Just because they were a tire fire the last couple years does not mean it will forever be horrible. UM and OSU were always going to be the top two programs. Nebraska, in theory, should be capable. USC and UCLA should be capable.

Long live divisions.

Bring the Stoops's home, Iowa, ffs.

Not sure I like eliminating divisions unless they eliminate the B1G championship game too.  Don't want to see Michigan to have to play the Buckeyes two weeks in a row.  Eliminate the championship game and give everyone another conference game.

Teams I'm scared of in the next 2 to 3 years:

Illinois: They played us tough, they seem to be going for a similar identity and those mirror matches can be a problem.

Wisconsin: Much as it pains me to say it I think Fickell is legitimately a good coach, he had sustained success at Cincy, which is a hell of a lot better than these guys who have one great season at a G5 school and then become coaching darlings (*cough, Matt Campbell, cough*). With Wisconsin's history and alumni-base, and an easier path as long as the West is a thing, that could be a quick turnaround. My only consolation is if he gets things going in Wisconsin, and OSU starts going South, I don't think he automatically leaves that job because OSU snaps its fingers.

Purdue: Do they play defense over there yet? I feel like I pay less attention to these guys than I should, and they might be a good defense away from making a run at the division. Wait, they won the division. OK, they might be a good defense away from winning the division in a year where winning it isn't a little bit comical. 

Special Mention-- Nebraska: Rhule is one of these guys who I think might be fool's gold, we'll see. Even if he turns out to be legit, Nebraska is not a 2 year-turnaround job, it's got to be torn down and rebuilt. Should be an easy win for most of the conference in the short-term. 

The "West" is going away after next year anyway.  None of the new hires are going to make enough of a difference in year one to significantly shift the balance of power - none of the west teams will be comparable with Michigan, OSU, or PSU next year.  The gap is just too large.

After that, the schedules are all getting reset and the divisions as we know them go away, so it won't matter.  I hope the West's winless streak continues so that division is a permanent oh-fer in the entire history of this iteration of the Big Ten.  Just to prove how stupid this setup was from the very beginning. 

The teams in what is now the West can't drop any lower than they have, and ought to see some improvement in the near-term.  Exception being Iowa -- Ferentz is long in the tooth to start, which is not in and of itself fatal, but his standing behind his kid as OC is.  I expect Wiscy to quickly get back to where they have been the last 20+ years, and Nebraska to get to "doesn't suck" immediately, and perhaps to "pretty damn good" in the near term.  Illinois should be sold as long as BB is around and can recruit competitively.

I think Ferentz is essentially in Red Berenson territory for Iowa. He will retire when he feels like retiring.

Rhule should be a good hire for Nebraska. His track record at Temple and Baylor speaks for itself

I am intrigued by Fickell. He's done well at Cincinnati but that's by no means a guarantee of P5 success. He'd probably kill it in a B1G West world, but without divisions we will see. It's not easy to recruit to Madison for whatever reason

There is only so much room at the punchbowl.  

USC and UCLA entering the BigTen will make much of the West irrelevant.  

From what I've read, Fickell needs to build a recruiting infrastructure almost from scratch in Madison. He eschewed working the portal in his early interviews, but necessity will persuade him to at least talk with some of his Cinci players and recruits. His arrival posits a desire to change established patterns at Wisconsin.

Rhule will need to do a lot of work in Lincoln, results TBD.

From my perspective in Urbana, Bielema needs to recruit and develop quarterbacks to sustain success. The portal won't yield a DeVito every year. He's got a coaching staff that can develop the players he'll recruit from the Quad Cities, Central IL, St, Louis, and the Chicagoland recruits that Michigan, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, et. al. don't snag first. The Illinois program is trending up.

With stadium reno on the way and a new-ish training facility, is Northwestern and its donor class concerned with Fitz following the path of David Shaw and the program deteriorating further?

I'll be interested in watching Purdue in action.

Never change Iowa, never change.

I think P.J. Fleck has rowed up to his glass ceiling at Minnesota. This leads me to the general question for all the B1G West teams: do you really think a reliance on the ground game and defense will do the trick once USC and UCLA join the conference?

I don't think the divisions are going to exist once our West Coast chums join us in a couple years, but I do think overall, the teams currently in the Western Division will be improving.

1) Iowa just kind is what it is and until Ferentz retires, they shouldn't expect anything to change, which is a shame because Iowa has a higher ceiling than what Ferentz provides on the field. But they'll be stuck in their cycle of three to four 6-6 to 8-4 seasons in a row, then one 10-11 win season to keep Ferentz from getting fired, and then the cycle will start all over again. He's too stubborn to change, and that's kind of Iowa's fault because they kept extending his contract so I'm thinking he's just gotten complacent and knows he's got job security as long as he wants. 

2) Northwestern - Yeah this year was a disaster but Fitzgerald is a good coach who is good for some 8-9 win seasons every few years so he's not going anywhere. Tough place to recruit to, and I think he could do better at another program, but I'm not sure he wants that responsibility and I think he's comfortable where he is. 

3) Wisconsin - Absolutely the most intriguing situation. Wisconsin has probably the highest ceiling of any program in the West, but what really intrigues me is that Wisconsin will finally be going away from the style that has defined them for decades. Its a breath of fresh air that I honestly think they need. It may take him a year or two, but Wisconsin is going to be an even bigger pain than they already are in the years to come. Will also be curious to see if Fickell can start poaching some Ohio guys that OSU normally takes for granted. 

4) Minnesota - I think they'll continue to be average to good, maybe throw an occasional special 10 win season in, but it seems like Minnesota just has a ceiling that Fleck has taken them to and can't surpass. Whether that's on him or the program as a whole, not too sure. 

5) Purdue also is a program that I think is what it is under Brohm. A consistent 7-5 to 9-3 squad that is good for a big upset every few years, but otherwise I don't think they're elevating much beyond where they are now. 

6) Illinois - Very curious to see what Bielema can turn them into. Pretty big turnaround in a short amount of time. Illinois could be sneaky good within the next few years, especially if Bielema can recruit the kind of linemen and running backs he routinely recruited at Wisconsin. 

7) Nebraska - Biggest wild card here, in my opinion. Rhule is a good coach, but Nebraska is an ever-increasing difficult place to recruit to, and the places it used to recruit when it was highly successful (Texas, Oklahoma, California) are now saturated with great programs that have those states a bit on lockdown. And we all thought Scott Frost was a home run hire. I'm not sure if its a coaching problem or a problem with Nebraska in general. My guess is that Nebraska comes full circle and ends up right back where they were under Pelini. Averaging nine wins a year, maybe sneak to ten every now and again, but a good program that comes leaps and bounds from where it was under Frost, but can't break back into the great to elite pantheon for reasons that may just be beyond its ability to control. 

It's not a stretch to say that Ferentz and Fitz are the two least desirable coaches in that list. If Kelly/Riley are still at UCLA/USC in a couple years, you could argue that with the exception of Harbaugh and possibly Day/Franklin, the most accomplished coaches in the conference are west of Washtenaw County.