B1G Tourney Indy and CoronaVirus
So as of this morning the Indiana Governor says that they have no plans to cancel large gatherings. Use common sense and take precautions.
For those coming to Indy, O`Reilly`s is the designated Michigan bar. It is probably the best location of all of the team bars. Only a block or so from the stadium.
If you haven't come to Indy for this event in the past, I can tell you the city does it right. Hope to see a lot of UM fans here tomorrow.
O, O, O, O’Reilly
O’REILLY
(I don’t hear you singing)
Auto Parts! Oww!
Today's sponsor of Fantasy Footballers
Anyone else think it's fucked up Michigan's government clearly waited until after the polls closed yesterday to announce confirmed cases?
There is 0% chance they didn't have the confirmation until like 10:00 pm last night. They at least knew earlier that day, if not earlier.
Do you think large swaths of Michigan residents would have not voted because of two confirmed cases somewhere is Michigan? Most people tend to believe that the virus has made its way through a good portion of the population already. To clarify, approximately 99% of people who get the virus are reported to survive it, most with very mild symptoms. 99 out of 100 people get it and recover from it like many other illnesses already present in our society.
People were going to vote, regardless.
Voter turnout easily surpassed that of 2016...I do think if there were confirmed cases it would have had an impact.
I think it would be really unfortunate if this kind of resulted in "forced" voter suppression so I am glad to hear that turnout was solid.
March 11th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
I'm a junkie so I was up late watching returns out of Washtenaw b/c I figured if a certain candidate wasn't driving up big margins with the college kiddos he was screwed. He was screwed, lol. Same thing over in Kalamazoo.
Virus or no virus, don't rely on turning out college kids to save your campaign. You're competing with Fortnite, weed, and Disney Plus.
March 11th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
He's been screwed twice now.
In 2016 by Wasserman-Schultz and Donna Brazile.
In 2020 by the previous administration having meetings with other candidates to coalesce their support around just one.
112,000 more dem voters than last time . For the governor race , they had record number of new dem voters and it showed last night .
Would you post a link showing your survival information? Most of the data shows a mortality rate of close to 3 percent, although it may well be less than that because many people who contract the disease are asymptomatic or mildly ill and haven't been tested. So far, at least in the US, testing has been done on very few people due to a shortage of test kits.
Even a 1% mortality rate is 10 times higher than typical influenza and if you get as many people sick with COVID-19 as you do with the flu, you could lose hundreds of thousands. That's a big freaking deal.
Increasing numbers of cancellations of events involving large numbers of people are happening daily. It seems likely that sports will be no exception.
If sporting events are cancelled or postponed I can live with it. People need to still get out and vote though, and I am glad to hear they did.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^
The mortality rate is significantly less than 3% because we really don’t know what the denominator is. Many cases are asymptomatic to the point where they won’t even be tested. If the virus is truly ubiquitous, then even in Hobei Province (pop. 60 million) the number of deaths (3000) would put the mortality rate at under 0.01%; the problem is we truly don’t know. Italy has had a large number of deaths, but it has been reported that the average age of mortality was 81.
So it probably isn’t 3%, but it likely isn’t trivial either. Precaution, but not panic, is in order.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
A few points:
1. The mortality rate of those confirmed with COVID-19 is around 3%. But that’s just the “top-line” number. Dig in a bit. First, while the common flu has a mortality rate of just under 1%, that 1% figure is not based off of “confirmed cases” but “projected cases.” To be clear, around 3 million people are projected to have the flu annually in the US. There are not, however, 3 million confirmed cases (i.e. people who actually test positive for flu). Tons of people have mild flu and don’t go to the doctor. Or go to the doctor, are told “it’s a virus so treat with fluids and stay in bed” and don’t take the flu test. The same is almost certainly true of COVID-19. If so, the mortality rate is likely similar to the flu.
2. Take a look at the mortality statistics a bit deeper. The overwhelming majority of those who have died are elderly or had other conditions. This is also similar to the flu. The difference between this and the flu appears to be with children. While children are at a heightened risk of death from the flu, this new virus appears not to pose a serious risk to children (fortunately). The take-away is that while those who are older or have pre-existing conditions should take extra precautions, for the average person in decent health, you should be no more concerned with COVID-19 than the flu.
3. As a final point, given the above, I think that the media and political coverage of this disease (both sides of the aisle, so not being political) is irresponsible and leading to a global panic. Reporting daily every single new case!? Imagine if we did that with the flu? People would never leave their homes.
March 11th, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
In looking at the Italy statistics:
99.9% of deaths are people over 50
97%~ are people over 60
85%+ are people who had two or more pre-existing conditions. They lumped 0 and 1 pre-existing condition together. I would have liked to have seen that separated.
Lock down the nursing homes, cancel school for a week before or after spring break (in Michigan, this shouldn't be a big deal, there were almost no snow days this year), stop selling concessions at large events and cut capacity in half at those events (seat in between policy), advise anyone over 60 to stay home unless absolutely necessary and keep issuing PSAs regarding handing washing, face touching, etc.
March 11th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Mortality statistics are not a static number, they are dependent on other factors. If you started to get large numbers of cases such that hospitals become overwhelmed, quality of care would.go down. An important goal is to prevent that from happening
March 11th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
A few points:
1. The mortality rate of those confirmed with COVID-19 is around 3%. But that’s just the “top-line” number. Dig in a bit. First, while the common flu has a mortality rate of just under 1%, that 1% figure is not based off of “confirmed cases” but “projected cases.” To be clear, around 3 million people are projected to have the flu annually in the US. There are not, however, 3 million confirmed cases (i.e. people who actually test positive for flu). Tons of people have mild flu and don’t go to the doctor. Or go to the doctor, are told “it’s a virus so treat with fluids and stay in bed” and don’t take the flu test. The same is almost certainly true of COVID-19. If so, the mortality rate is likely similar to the flu.
2. Take a look at the mortality statistics a bit deeper. The overwhelming majority of those who have died are elderly or had other conditions. This is also similar to the flu. The difference between this and the flu appears to be with children. While children are at a heightened risk of death from the flu, this new virus appears not to pose a serious risk to children (fortunately). The take-away is that while those who are older or have pre-existing conditions should take extra precautions, for the average person in decent health, you should be no more concerned with COVID-19 than the flu.
3. As a final point, given the above, I think that the media and political coverage of this disease (both sides of the aisle, so not being political) is irresponsible and leading to a global panic. Reporting daily every single new case!? Imagine if we did that with the flu? People would never leave their homes.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
Testing is extremely limited and even where there is testing, those who are mildly sick are likely not being tested. So mortality rates right now are completely bogus. Currently, the worldwide death toll from Covid-19 is only just over 4,000 (over about 3 months) while influenza kills about 300,000 to 600,000 worldwide every year. Simple math suggests the Covid-19 mortality rates (even without a vaccine) may not ultimately be as high as influenza which we deal with every year. So, it's serious but the high mortality rates are not real and are being used by some to sensationalize and scaremonger.
March 11th, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
there are multiple reasons that an apples to oranges comparison is not a appropriate, but the places where we’ve seen the worst problems should provide a cautionary tale.
in both China and Italy, health services have been overwhelmed. The strong precautions being taken in other places are in large part in reaction to that real world experience. The measures being taken are likely significantly reducing the spread and therefore the number of deaths.
if we reacted to the flu the way we are reacting to Covid-19, there would be lots less deaths (but much more economic mayhem). Conversely, if we were not reacting this way, there would be more spread and deaths.
math might ultimately get to your conclusion but I don’t think it will be simple. And I also think there is a good chance the rate is significantly lower than 3, but significantly higher than 0.1. Even if it is 0.2, that would be twice as many deaths if the same number of people were infected, that seems quite significant to me.
You make a lot of unsubstantiated assumptions. Actually, we have no idea whether what we are doing is helping or hurting anybody. There are unintended consequences. There is economic harm.
Your conjecture about the eventual mortality rate is pointless. The early numbers suggest it will not be as lethal as the flu. That's my educated take from a scientific/medical/math background.
Regardless, there are more significant known threats and likely many more significant unknown threats. The reaction thus far is not rational or proportional.
March 11th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
What is the simple math that shows covid 19 mortality rates are less than 0.1%? Show your work.
I got into this disagreement in another corona thread but everyone keeps saying “significantly less than 3%” and “the flu kills more people every year” and I’ll say it again: those statements are meaningless and completely missing the point.
Looking at the SK data and China’s numbers for healthy people, the rate is still estimated to be 0.7 to 0.9%. Everyone says “most cases are mild and not included”...okay fine let’s try to estimate what that means. Only about 1 in 8 flu cases are reported to hospitals, so let’s assume 1 in 10 covid 19 cases get reported with 9/10 being extremely mild. That suggests the mortality rate is 0.3%. So I’ll help out all these people mindlessly throwing around the buzz words “significantly less” and I’ll grant them a mortality rate of 0.3%. Then you have to look at how fast the disease is spreading. Data to date suggests its About twice as contagious as the flu. So using these numbers together means about 6x more deaths than the flu. No where have I seen anything suggesting either a) mortality rate less than 0.1% and b) the flu spreads more rapidly.
Furthermore, we can’t assume that warm weather will kill the virus. That’s a hope. Warm weather didn’t stop SARS.
I don’t see any convincing data to say the flu is worse. Other than the total death number, but as were in the middle of this, those numbers are misleading.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:22 AM ^
https://www.google.com/amp/s/asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/
I don’t think anyone actually knows the mortality rate, but the SK data is likely the most representative bc of the discipline wrt broad testing and the more well developed medical infrastructure. They’re showing ~0.7% mortality, which is high compared to the typical flu, but much lower than 3%. My hunch is that it’s actually even lower than that, as the numerator is very well known, the denominator (assuming testing methods are accurate) can only be understated.
btw, the system they put in place does seem to be working wrt slowing the spread (at least slowing the rate of spread):
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102777/south-korea-covid-19-daily-new-cases/
My general opinion is that the freak out occurring now is overblown. On the other hand, I’d be terrified if I were 70+ yrs old, and would take dramatic precaution. Those in low risk categories should be doing what they can to slow the spread (wash hands frequently, clean surfaces frequently, limit contact with high risk individuals, limit non-essential travel, self-quarantine if showing symptoms, etc). Shutting down offices, classrooms, etc. seems like a bit much. We’ll see how long it lasts. History has shown that serious societal economic damage also causes mortality, so we need to think carefully before we lock down the entire country. If I were a student or had a child enrolled I would definitely be asking for a partial tuition and room/board refund for what seems to be a CYA type decision.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Those that have compromised heart and/or lungs or are elderly should self quarantine and should stock up on some supplies that could help limit their need to be in contact with others. Everyone else should proceed with life using extra diligence in hand washing, touching your face,nose, and eyes. I am not so sure we avoid this but let’s not all get it at once.
There is still so much we don’t know but the overall damage to society seems like it’s going to come in economic form. What sucks is seeing a crisis turned into a political scrum. These fuckers hate each other and couldn’t agree on shit.
Plane crash-we win! Coronavirus-we win! Give us a crisis and we are a team of destiny. And Slippery Noodle is my favorite place in Indy. Go Blue.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:33 AM ^
Here’s an article that makes sense - especially with the cruise ship example of 700 cases with 6 deaths:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
It also mentions that outside of Wuhan, China’s mortality rate is 0.7%.
“Right now, death rate estimates vary per country. The best estimates for South Korea put COVID-19's fatality rate at 0.6%, and a recent study released on the death the rate in China -- but outside hard-hit Wuhan -- hovered just above that, at 0.7%.”
And here’s another saying it will likely be similar to sever seasonal flu:
“The actual death rate could be similar to that of severe seasonal flu, -- below 1 percent -- according to an editorial published in the journal by Anthony S. Fauci and H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Robert R. Redfield, director of the CDC.”
Easy to find FACTS if someone wants to. There’s also hope that (like the seasonal flu) the spread rate will lessen as weather warms up due to the shorter life span outside of the body.
IMO, the cruise ship stats are the most encouraging. And remember, not everybody on the ship was tested. Just those that were sick enough to warrant testing.
The sooner people stop quoting out of date “facts”, the better (i.e. WHO 3% BS). And check your sources. Lots of people are going to get $$$$ out of this scare. CDC and WHO are no different than other organizations who want funding increased! <- Just my cynical opinion.
South Korea has been conducting the most comprehensive testing and their updated mortality rate was at 0.6% yesterday.
I was more concerned with the candidates so stayed home and watched Family Feud.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
This is a dangerously stupid understanding of the illness. In the absence of herculean mitigation efforts, we're going to see hospitals overrun and mortality rates looking like northern Italy in *a lot* of places. It's no exaggeration to say that burying our heads in the sand will lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
There is information lacking in the media about why Italy got hit so bad. I am not minimizing the dangers of the disease but I talked to a friend, that happens to be a Doctor, and lives in Italy.
Northern Italy had a very recent flu pandemic. Their hospitals already had limited capacity when they got hit again with Coronavirus. Unfortunately, in that part of the country, a large portion of the population is composed by seniors,
Other places in southern Italy have had very few reported cases and few or no reported deaths.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:46 AM ^
As I mentioned above, the average age of someone in Italy dying from coronavirus is 81. Italy does have the oldest population in Europe.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
Huh, good thing hospitals don't have limited capacity anywhere else in the world.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
Haha, such ridiculous fearmongering. Get a grip.
March 11th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
Collectively, we *should* be afraid of the illness. An absence of fear is the result of some combination of normalcy bias, willful self-delusion, ignorance of how the pandemic is playing out right now, and a sociopathic disregard for anyone over the age of 70.
March 11th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
No, an absence of fear is due to knowledge, perspective and reason.
A sociopathic disregard for anyone over the age of 70? Because I'm against fearmongering and panic over a threat that is far less than the risk of dying in a traffic accident?
OMFG. Hahahahahahahahaha. That's the stupidest thing I've read in a very long time.
By the way, I've devoted my life to saving the lives of those over 70 (and under). So that makes you comment even more idiotic.
March 11th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^
How's your aluminum-foil hat fitting?
March 11th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
Since viruses can be spread by touching one's face, burying our heads in the sand might not be a bad idea.
These should soon be added to the FSA-plan eligibility list
Although the death rate is about 3% for known cases, there would likely be also a percentage who survive health complications from it that will be saddled with high medical bills. So I wouldn’t dismiss this lightly. Younger people can be fine but then pass it to older people that could have severe issues.
Didn't want to scare way the olds.
I'm also not surprised by the governor's decision. There's a noticeable difference in how this story is playing based on "geography."
This happened with the swine flu when I was living in Argentina. When the global outbreak was occurring, the mid-term elections were approaching and the government said “there is no swine flu in Argentina.” I was in the US when the elections took place and upon return they forced everyone to go through a health screening.
Turns out 44 people had already died by then, with an estimated 100,000 cases of infection.
Speaking of the virus....any chance poster BornInA2 can give us a Seattle update? I found the perspective honest and interesting. I imagine we have a lot to learn now that they are reporting test results in Michigan.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
I’m in Seattle as well and work at a company which has gone to remote work in the entire region for those who can. Honestly, I’m worried about governments not doing enough. Someone on my team yesterday reported a fever of 103 and is also exhibiting some other symptoms. Fortunately she’s been working from home for 1.5 weeks already, so we are hopeful it did not impact the rest of the team.
Those who say this is overblown because for most people it is mild, don’t understand or care how that makes it worse for those in high risk categories. The mortality rate for those folks is much higher than 3%.
I recommend this article on Medium. While I can’t vouch for the methodology used (not a statistician), I do agree with the general sentiment. The sooner we implement social distancing measures, the more lives we save and the better the mortality rate
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
March 11th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
I'm not the poster you asked about, but I live about a 1/2 mile from the initial outbreak in Kirkland (technically Juanita Bay neighborhood). It's a bit on edge here but not crazy. Most people work from home, some are still going into work - traffic used to be a nightmare now there is no slow downs, so that should indicate the amount of people that WFH.
I think most people have accepted that they could/are going to get exposed at some point so most of everyone is doing all the preventative suggestions to the T. I see only a few people out with masks on, it is way more common to see people wearing latex gloves especially if it's a job with outside interaction (IE grocery stores).
Theres a few people I know that are sick, but it's hard to distinguish if its covid or something else like the common cold. Everyone is overly cautious so most treat it like it could be it. From what I can tell no medical place is prepared to evaluate everyone who shows some symptoms, so most are told to self quarantine, which most people don't appreciate not being able to know if they have it or not.
Personally I'm not so worried, I'm in my low 30s. My bigger concern is I dont want to be an unknown carrier of it and be part of the spreading and possibly get other people sick who are older or have poor health.
Fast forward to April 6, 2020...Michigan has made an improbable run to the NCAA Championship behind reinvigorated Isaiah Livers, improved John Teske, and a consistent Franz Wagner.
Zavier Simpson contracts Coronavirus, but pulls Michigan to a National Championship in what will forever be known as "Zavier's Coronavirus Game."
Just because it's still happening, you don't have to go. Not telling you or anyone not to or shaming if you do - by all means do you and live your life however you want, just offering food for thought. I'm quite far from panicking about this virus. There's a lot we'll learn when it's all said and done that we don't know now. It seems as of now to be infinitely survivable for healthy people under 80, so the overall risk to the general population is low.
That said, the high-risk people (immuno-compromised, respiratory issues, 65+ crowd) could not only face severe cases and death but the effects will be far worse in a community if the there's a significant spike that overwhelms healthcare systems and prevents those with severe cases from getting treatment. If we can delay the spread it's gives the healthcare system a better shot at helping those that are high-risk if they get a severe case.
Seems like a relatively low-effort ask to follow guidelines from the WHO and other orgs and wash your hands a lot, self quarantine even if you're a little sick, avoid large gatherings of people (1,000+), and use common sense.
I'm going and I'm not worried. I do not live my life scared of what might happen. I have no worries about getting sick. If it happens it happens.
If folks stay home, I may get to move closer to the court.
That would be an added benefit if it's not too crowded. I'm about to drive through LA and hoping traffic will be only slightly gridlocked as opposed to the usual parking lot with less people going to work.
Rock on, brother, like I said, not finger-wagging, just offering a perspective. Hope you enjoy the games.
I-75 in Detroit looked like the opening highway scene in The Walking Dead this morning. Kind of spooky.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:01 AM ^
With all due respect, I think you miss the point. Young people, fortunately, don't seem to have high morbidity or mortality rates from COVID-19. They can be carriers even if asymptomatic and spread the disease to older folks who have much higher risk factors.
As someone already mentioned, we have limited medical capacity and if the system gets overwhelmed, we will have a major problem.
March 11th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
exactly.
this is the main theme in most comments arguing 'this ain't too bad'.
it's not always about 'you' and 'your kids'
it's for the susceptible others who can't protect themselves as effectively as 'you'.
as i have commented elsewhere, that is the same logic as anti-vaxxers. immune deficient classmate of my unvaccinated kid? too bad he has weak genes sucks to be that kid, not my kid.
March 11th, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^
If they can't protect themselves, they should probably avoid contact with me. Because I'm not going to degrade my quality of life to cater to their needs.
ummm /s? i hope.