Ari Wasserman suggests Harbaugh is "playing chess" in recruiting & development

Submitted by Communist Football on December 22nd, 2023 at 8:48 PM

Ari Wasserman, the former Ohio State beat writer who is now a national "stars matter" recruiting analyst for the Athletic, had this to say about Michigan in his review of the 2024 signing day results:

What should we make of Michigan? The Wolverines have won the Big Ten and beaten Ohio State three years in a row, yet their class currently includes only two top-100 players, both of whom are outside of the top 75. If any program in the country has defied the recruiting results to achieve great things, it’s Michigan. I want to say it’s yet another underwhelming class when compared to what is happening on the field, but maybe it’s just time to say Jim Harbaugh and his staff are playing chess in evaluation, development and the transfer portal. Michigan legitimately may win the national title this year, which I thought was impossible — literally impossible — for a team that ranks No. 14 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite.

It's an interesting admission from a guy who has repeatedly asserted that you can't win a national championship with Michigan's formula. Full article ($) here.

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MGlobules

December 23rd, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^

If some writer who has harmed our rep with his scribblings in the recent past observes something we've all known for some time. . .

I do think we all need to become more disciplined about ignoring some of these people and outlets. I'm doing just fine, after lining up several other sources, with a boycott of ESPN. It's easier to boycott The Athletic since the quality--and especially the long-form pieces that they did well for a time--have dipped considerably. Does anyone know whether the game will be carried anywhere else on Jan 1, or will I be stuck with ESPN?

Joined: 11/17/2008

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Communist Football

December 22nd, 2023 at 8:54 PM ^

Other commentary on 2024-25 Michigan opponents:

Ohio State is the only program with five five-star prospects in its 2024 class. The Buckeyes’ day started poorly by watching top-100 receiver Jeremiah McClellan flip to Oregon, but they were able to keep Smith and five-star edge rusher Eddrick Houston in their class. Though Ohio State would have preferred to hold on to a few other key pieces — Scott, Lyle and McClellan — Ryan Day’s program ultimately had a successful Wednesday. [OSU lost 5* DT Justin Scott and top-150 RB Jordan Lyle to Miami.]

The biggest recruiting win of the cycle was Nebraska flipping five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola from Georgia on Monday. It gets lost in the shuffle because it didn’t happen Wednesday, and Raiola sent his letter to Nebraska first thing in the morning to eliminate any drama. What a recruiting win for the Cornhuskers, who may be able to use this commitment as a jumping-off point to bigger and better things.

What the heck is going on at USC? Not only has there been a mass exodus of former five-star signees, but the Trojans also saw top-100 Southern California receiver Ryan Pellum flip to Oregon. Lincoln Riley’s class currently ranks No. 18 overall and includes four top-100 players, but this program is not accumulating talent even close to the level I thought it would. If USC were a stock, I would have taken a beating on it.

Texas was like Georgia. It signed an elite-level class without dominating its own state. Texas is a different animal because of the size of the state, but the Longhorns signed only three of the top 50 players in Texas and are still in position to end the cycle with a top-five class. National recruiting at its finest.

After flipping McClellan from Ohio State on Wednesday, Oregon has six top-100 players and has a class that ranks No. 6 nationally. The Ducks don’t have a five-star prospect in the fold after a rankings change bumped defensive end Elijah Rushing to a high-end four-star, but they are stacking talent as they get ready to join the Big Ten. USC and Oregon seem to be heading in opposite directions.

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MIdocHI

December 23rd, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^

Riley sticking with Alex Grinch for so long really nosedived his defense. I am also unimpressed with hiring away a defensive coordinator from an underwhelming UCLA team. I thought Jim Leonhard or some other bonafide defensive coordinator would be next at USC. Perhaps Lincoln did not want a former head coach on staff that might replace him should the wheels continue to fall off. 

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Sonny Jim

December 22nd, 2023 at 9:33 PM ^

Agreed.  But, honest question, what is the difference between a typical five star and a typical four star?  Is the five star ten times better or is he ten percent better?  If a five star is generally judged to be only a little better, coaching and development can really make a big difference.  It has always seemed to me that college football pundits like nice neat rankings and formulas that might not reflect reality all that well.

Joined: 11/09/2023

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jhayes1189

December 22nd, 2023 at 9:57 PM ^

At the end of the day it’s the opinion of the recruiting services scouts, who I’m sure have plenty of knowledge, but certainly can’t see everything and aren’t going to be the level of scout an elite coach is.  

There have been so many elite players who weren’t 5 stars. And there are probably as more 5 stars that end up being average college players than there are that become 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, albeit I’m sure the ratio is much higher for their success than for 3 and 4 stars.

If I’m not mistaken, the 2 best WR’s I’ve seen in the BiG10 the last 20 years were not 5 stars; Marvin Harrison Jr was a 4 star, and Braylon Edwards I believe was considered at about a 2-3 star level (he was pre rivals star system).

I sort of wish we went back to the days before recruiting services, and just trusted the coaches evaluation of guys. That sort of seems like what we as Michigan fans are starting to have to do at least, which I kind of enjoy. I’ve moved on from my days of the excitement/anxiety of hoping Terrell Pryor chooses Michigan over OSU, expecting Clayton Richard and Kevin Grady to be studs, and being bummed Demar Dorsey never set foot on campus. I like just trusting the staff to evaluate the talent. It sort of feels like Michigan is becoming the 2003-2018 New England Patriots of recruiting. 

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getsome

December 22nd, 2023 at 11:07 PM ^

the patriots had brady though so they were locked in with the best ever at games most important position.  however in terms of building along the lines, trusting your scouts valuations, preaching fundamentally sound ball, etc, i could maybe see that comparison.  well see if harbaugh can keep it going when his pro QB eventually leaves and the culture at least partially turns over as current upperclassmen matriculate.  certainly appreciate what hes done so far 

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Amaizing Blue

December 23rd, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^

I've seen comparisons between 3, 4, and 5 star recruits coming out of high school and what they've gone on to be in college and the NFL.  Seems like the more players you include in the sample size, the more true to star ranking their performance is.  Take a random 3/4 star and compare them to a random 5 star individually and you could end up with Derrick Green and Blake Corum.  

Take all 5 star running backs over the past 15 years and compare them to all 3 and 4 star backs and the 5 star backs as a group clearly perform better.  (As would every other position, I imagine.)

Does Michigan's current approach of getting guys who want to be here and then rewarding them work better than the Texas A and M model?  How much does team culture factor in?  What about our outstanding coaching staff?  How much of a talent differential can coaching and culture bridge?  That question, at least, will be answered on January 1st.  

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KBLOW

December 22nd, 2023 at 9:09 PM ^

Ari W is a huge OSU slappy who is merely trying to cover his ass if Michigan beats Alabama. If we lose he'll no doubt go on about how he was sooooo wrong about Michigan and go back to joining the chorus of "HARBAUGH CHEATED!" which is every other article on The Athletic.

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