Anyone See A Pattern Here?

Submitted by UNCWolverine on February 20th, 2022 at 3:23 PM

Michigan game results sorted by 3pt shooting %

67% Win
65% Win
57% Win
55% Win
47% Win
44% Loss     Purdue, tough loss
41% Loss     UCF shot better (52%/60%)
40% Win
40% Win
39% Win
35% Win
33% Win
32% Win
31% Loss
24% Win     1 point win vs PSU
24% Loss
20% Loss
20% Loss
20% Win     Iowa shot just as poorly
17% Loss
16% Loss
16% Loss
13% Win     Nebrasketball, enough said
10% Loss
7% Loss

 

I think Juwan probably knows what he needs to do to improve this team/roster going forward. Let's hope he can find some shooters on the recruiting trail and/or the portal.

 

Go Blue.

Hail2Victors

February 20th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^

The fundamentals on this this team are very bad except for Hunter and Brooks.   The passing is awful.   You set up 3 point shooting with good passes.  The passing on this team is awful.  
 

TrueBlue2003

February 20th, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^

I didn't see the second half but the first half threes were all wide open.  The passing was good.

The only made turnovers I recall were Hunter just not catching a good pass and Williams turning his back and trying to do a spin move when he should have known the help was coming from Davison.

Passing looked good to me.  Im sure everything in the second half looked bad, but just one of those halves on the road I guess.

SHub'68

February 20th, 2022 at 5:02 PM ^

Since Juwan is going to have time on his hands, perhaps he will sit back and go through every players' shooting form in detail and figure out some surefire ways for them all to work super hard on it during the offseason (which is also going to start sooner than anticipated).

NJblue2

February 20th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^

Nope, shooting is dumb and only helps the little guys. Basketball is about banging in the paint, that's how they did it 30 years ago and that's how it should stay.

UMfan21

February 20th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^

Houston was supposed to be our 3 point answer this year.  His unpredictability, the regression of Eli Brooks 3 pointers, and the lack of 3pt from our PG position explains it all.

Solecismic

February 20th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^

I spent a little time with this after the game, because I don't want to think about brawls and such.

What stands out to me is that in the tiny sample size of the last four games, Michigan's opponents have made four three-pointers in each game (Michigan made four themselves in each of the last three games after going wild against Purdue).

Is Michigan more reliant on three-point shooting than other teams? Does that create more of a feast-or-famine than is ideal with a team that has this level of talent?

The number of three-pointers Michigan makes in a game correlates 49% with winning this season, but that's only 24% for their opponents. Then 53%/36% with three-point percentage and 61% with the difference between Michigan's three-point percentage and its opponent's.

The NET rating of the opponent only correlates 50% with winning in Michigan's games this season. While Michigan's percentage made from three doesn't change much against better opponents, it gets far fewer opportunities to take three-pointers.

I tried separating road from home, and this seems to be a big part of the home court advantage, but the correlations don't change a lot.

Obviously, 25 games is not enough to go on, but I wonder why I'm seeing so much more sensitivity to the three-point shot from this team than I'd expect. And what, if anything, could be done about it since Michigan does not take an unusual amount of three-pointers.

Blue Ninja

February 20th, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^

If today was any indication, at times they seem to overly rely on the 3 pt like when Wisconsin got on their run early in the 2nd half. That's when they went cold. Looking deeper into their stats on the season, they are 8th in the Big Ten for 3pt FG %, but OTOH, they have taken the least amount of 3 point shots in the Big Ten and consequently being 2nd from last in shots made. But there is far more to the story of course on why they are not doing well but this conversation is about 3 point shots. I haven't watched them a lot this year, but what I have watched, their shots are not falling and they are getting some good looks. I'm no coach so can't say how to fix that. Hopefully Coach Howard is able to fix before next season.

TrueBlue2003

February 20th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^

Shocking, you're saying that in a sport where scoring more points than the other team is how you win, doing the thing that gets you points is good?

We've made a brilliant discovery here.  I think we need to tell the players to make the shots instead of missing them.  Boom, hire me as coach.

Durham Blue

February 20th, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^

There was a point in the game where we made one field goal in about 10 minutes of game time.  And a lot of the looks were plenty open enough to score buckets.  This team has a shooting problem and it's been that way all season.  Now the end of game bullshit will just add to the stress on the team.  I don't see how we recover and win enough to make the tourney.  Sucks balls...