anyone else oddly confident about next year? i don't know what it is...
Despite the fact that these first 2 seasons under Rodriguez have been one step up from a disaster, I've been feeling oddly confident about next season, and I can't quite pinpoint why.
Maybe it's the feeling that finally, the rash of transfers has ended and there's finally a sense of total buy-in (Saban's postgame quotes made me think of this)?
Maybe it's that we return the bulk of our offense, and should have continuity at key positions for the first time in awhile?
Maybe it's the general lack of conversation about UM football at the moment (by the mass media)?
Maybe it's the Big Ten's success in Bowl games this year and the desire to see UM back in the mix for those matchups?
Whatever the reason, I can't wait to see what our team looks like in the fall. I think it will be made very apparent whether Rich has turned the corner or not come the fall. Our defense will definitely cost us a couple of games, but I would genuinely be very surprised (and dismayed) if we don't have one of the most explosive offenses in the big ten. Something went seriously wrong if we don't notch at least 8 wins in the fall.
The only person on the hot seat, IME, is Mr. Forcier. I like the kid, and could see him having a monster year next fall, but boy, you'd have to think that with a guy tailor-made for a run-oriented spread like Devin coming in, that this is his last opportunity to lock down the QB job for his stay at UM. I think that pressure will be good for tate, though, and expect him to raise his game significantly.
and finally, i'm really curious to see if Roy Roundtree is the real deal, and to see if the coaches build game plans around getting him the ball.
time...needs...to...move...faster!!!
January 8th, 2010 at 7:40 AM ^
around the PSU game, when I predicted a two touchdown victory, which at the time didn't look quite as ludicrous as it seems now. And then there was the rest of the season. Looking to next year, defense is a huge concern. But stranger things have happened--suck it up, quell the misgivings, and get all in for next year.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:21 AM ^
im not confident at all in next year. im actually terrified we will keep sucking on D and RR will be fired, we will hire some non-spread guy who hast to rebuild again and we will turn into notre dame. I am absolutely terrified.
That said, I will be going to as many games as possible next year and screaming like hell, this team, more than any before needs all of our support.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:40 PM ^
who wants to be a pirate?
January 8th, 2010 at 7:50 AM ^
but I dont share your enthusiasm. I am trying to stay positive. I do think the offense will continue to improve but losing Graham and Warren is going to hurt the defense big time. It wont take long to find out how the year is going to be in my opinion with the opener against UConn. They have an experienced qb and if we dont get pressure on him, it could get ugly....
January 8th, 2010 at 8:46 AM ^
Warren doesn't worry me as much as Graham. With this recruiting class, our DBs are talented and plentiful. I realize they are you, but I expect, like Warren, we can get by with them as freshman.
I'm concerned about consistent pass rush. I don't know where it will com from.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:51 AM ^
I'll be very curious to follow the progression of Craig Roh.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:22 AM ^
after a year with Barwis
January 8th, 2010 at 11:30 AM ^
I'm much more worried about Warren leaving than I am about Graham leaving. yes, Graham was a monster and I hate to see him leave, but we still have a very solid D-Line that I believe will be able to generate a nice pass rush. RVB is a decent player, plus Mike Martin and a Barwisized Will Campbell along with whoever takes Grahams spot...doesnt really worry me.
On the other hand, Warren was our only competent DB last season. Who will be starting at CB next season? Justin Turner, the RS freshman? JT Floyd? Troy Woolfolk? Boubacar?!?! The secondary remains my biggest concern, followed closely by LB play. The D-Line is the least of my worries.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:21 PM ^
doncha think? But you're right, 3 of 4 positions will likely be serious unknowns until after kickoff against UCONN, and perhaps not very good for a while after that (mid-season? 2011?).
Anxiety, thy name is Michigan defensive backfield 2010, and your nickname is Michigan LB corps 2010.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:10 AM ^
Players knowing and following assignments will make even the most talent starved team look competent. A great example recently is Iowa and Wisconsin both. Most of the players on both of these teams we would not even consider 'wasting' a scholarship on and yet they have done well as of late. Getting our system in place will help more than infusing more talent at this point. If Hilliard Davidson can win the D1 championship in Ohio two of the last four years with no speed and no significant D1 talent, the system must be working. Think of all the players we covet out of the state of Ohio and this middle-class suburban public school is showing them how to play football. Ours will come around as well if we give it time.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^
i'm all for constructive criticism, but since we're stating the obvious, here ya go.
the university of michigan is legendary. we ARE the best.
the last two seasons are a transitional fluke.
every single year we lose amazing players that seem irreplaceable.
do you remember when charles woodson left? i cried a little.
the dynasty will reign again. i feel like the new freshman, who do play, will step it up. they know what's on the line.
it's all been said before, but i feel like all the doubters are just trying say "I TOLD YOU SO" at the end of the next season.
well sir, i saved your name and i will contact you after the season opener blowout to say "I TOLD YOU SO!"
January 8th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^
before coach Rod got here, that there would be a transition period and then in year two there would be no looking back. Of course it didn't turn out that way, loss after loss piled up, records that we didn't want broken were seemingly broken each week...I'm a little more cautious now about the fortunes of the team. I believe in Coach Rod, but I wonder if his system is truly superior to what our Big Ten bretheren play. Also, do we have the answer to our defensive woes in Coach Robinson? I look forward to the upcoming year, and my confidence is building up but I'm at the 'wait and see' stage when it comes to 8 win/9 win success yet.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^
the_knowledge?
...
yes?
January 8th, 2010 at 12:17 PM ^
We ARE the best at what? By what measure? When? If you're trying to claim that right now we are better than Florida or Alabama or Ohio State or Texas in Division 1 football, you're delusional. If you're simply referring to the total number of wins the program has, you certainly are stating the obvious. Having more victories than anybody else is nice and all, but for 2010, here and now, it could not be more irrelevant to the question of who's "best."
As for dynasties reigning again, what Michigan "dynasty" are you referring to? When was the last Michigan "dynasty?" I'd say it was 1901-1906.
January 8th, 2010 at 4:47 PM ^
2 or 3 years ago, someone went back 40 years and ranked all the programs. think we were #2 behind nebraska. so yes we are pretty good. would you rather be a flash in the pan or high quality over the duration? usc from '90 to present or um over that same period?
January 8th, 2010 at 10:56 AM ^
I don't get the perception that we have a lack of talent on D. We have been consistently out recruiting other strong teams such as Iowa on that side of the ball. Last year there was little depth, plenty inexperience and a new scheme - I think that by next year the D SHOULD be at least average with another year of experience under the coaches and more depth/competition.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^
Hold on, wait a minute. You have no enthusiasm for next year and you are trying to stay positive.
They couldn't fall forward for a first down in 2008. We were 109th in offense yards in 2008 and we went up to 59th in 2009. We averaged a little over 20 pts a game in 2008, now almost 30 pts a game. improvement??
Yes, we hit a wall late in the season plus we were 0-5 on the road. Did you really think that a true freshman Forcier could take us to the promise land. You were one of those who bought into the hype about 3-9 one season to 9-3 the next season. You thought it will all work out and that some how we would be back.
Anyone who knows football understands that changing an offensive system from Pro style to a Spread offense will take some time. Don't judge after two years, give him 3-4 years then you can sit and say Yes or No.
Impatient Fans does not equal success for Michigan. It takes time, and YES.....stay positive!
Defense is young, and give them time with Coach Robinson.
Go Blue!!
January 8th, 2010 at 8:12 AM ^
I'm oddly confident about every year. But then, I'm just an odd guy.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:16 AM ^
If we start another freshman/walkon qb next year we're going to suck again. Book it.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:23 AM ^
that's precisely why i mentioned that Tate's on the biggest hotseat of anyone next year. He needs to make giant strides in decision making, toughness, and ball security... I hope to god he does.
it would also be super if Daryl Stonum could develop into a vertical/home run threat in the receiving game.
If he struggles and is no longer the secure starter, or gets injured and Devin's pressed into action, things could get interesting, and by interesting, I mean bad. I guess there's always a chance of DG being able to step right in and contribute, but i don't see him being able to do more than Pryor did as a freshman (yeah, pryor helped them to a fiesta bowl, but with much more talent around him than DG will have... Pryor's stats were not that impressive).
January 8th, 2010 at 12:50 PM ^
Am I the only one still anticipating (hoping for) big improvement in the offseason from Denard? Tate has 2 people to compete with, not 1.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:54 PM ^
Touché "Mirasola," I too anticipate big strides in Denards game this offseason. I'm a huge proponent of both Tate and Denard, but I think some often forget Tate enrolled early and had some xtra time to prepare for the season.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:11 PM ^
Mirasol, I couln't agree more. Denard seems to be an after thought at qb, a whole year of learning the system and working on mechanics could do wonders. I have dreams at night of a mike vick @ VT type season for DROB next year. Pipe dreaming, maybe, but damn it would be scary if he became just an average passer.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:17 AM ^
see, of all games, i kinda figured we might be summarily dismantled by penn st. i think a lot of the problems late this season related to a young team losing confidence and composure after the slide against MSU, Iowa, Penn St, etc.
don't get me wrong: there are definitely concerns in some key positions. I just think this is really the first off season with few distractions, and I think the guys all get down to business and come out clicking on all (or most) cylinders.
maybe it's wishful thinking.
to me, 8 wins and an Alamo/Outback appearance secures Rich's position here, without question, and at least allows him, the program and us to move forward without having to discuss whether he will mesh with the program's standards, etc.
6-6 or another losing season just means we have to keep dealing with the question of whether to go another direction, blah blah blah.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:27 AM ^
PSU is a bad team to hinge hopes for a season on when you're team is rebuilding. Illinois or Purdue, even Wisky, would be much better choices considering we were in them (or in Purdue's case leading by 14 at the half) and blew it.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^
Illinois and Purdy could be in the W column, but I see Wiscy as one of the better teams next year in the Big Ten and possibly even a top ten team nationally. Did you watch the total domination of Miami? I think we can put up points against them, but they have that grind it out offense that can keep your D on the field a long time. Hope springs eternal.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:38 AM ^
true. they weren't in the same group as the other two but it was a game for a half. i agree wisky will be one of the faves next year.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:24 AM ^
I'm a part of the optimistic "Rodriguez will succeed at Michigan" camp (it's an official group) so I don't think it's odd at all. We've played 22 freshman over the last two years, now those guys are juniors and sophomores will serious experience. Tate will/should be much improved along with D-Rob. I waver about our D–-part of me thinks they will cost us games but then I think, "second year under the same DC and third under same position coaches except LB's." The offense will be much improved. Everyone will remain pessimistic until the spring game and then it will change to, "Bring on UConn!" If we can get bowl eligible by the 8th game of the season, most everything will be just fine around here.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:30 AM ^
while I THINK and HOPE he will be better, I'd say there's absolutely no guarantee that Tate is much better. He's a wildcard. Can he control the Cutler/Favre/name-your-gunslinger tendencies that reared their ugly heads last year? that's going to be the key. I know the QB's running ability is key to this offense, but I'd like to see a LOT less of Tate running the football.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:41 AM ^
Running isn't his strong suit. There's a difference between a mobile quarterback -- someone who can move around in the pocket and rolls out well -- and a quarterback who is a good runner -- someone who turns into a running back when they head upfield. Tate is (or will be) the former, but I see little or no indication he will ever be the latter.
I tend to think Tate is destined to be part of a tandem with Denard (who may be the best running back Rodriguez has now) for his whole career at Michigan. While I generally think having two quarterbacks share time is a terrible idea, there is something to be said for developing them both together from the start. In other words, the scheme will work better this coming year than it did last year, and it will work even better the following two years. By the time they're seniors, Michigan could have the most fully-realized "wildcat" offense in the history of college football.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:40 AM ^
i agree with this statement, but tate can be a legitimate 2500-yard, 20-TD Qb. they just need to work out how to get the ball in Denard's hands more, and keep tate from taking the hits.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:57 AM ^
Does your official club have hats? What about a theme song and a pledge of allegiance?
January 8th, 2010 at 9:40 AM ^
yes to each of your questions. i can't say what they are because it's an exclusive club. there's also a membership fee.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^
are you just starting this club so it looks good on your B-school app?
January 8th, 2010 at 8:23 AM ^
I agree with blaze in that I am oddly confident every year (since RR came in). I can't really explain why, but I think it is because I followed his WV teams and know what he can do if he has the personnel he needs to run his offense.
I think he finally has those players and most have (if only a little) experience playing in the system. Couple that with the fact that we finally have a returning DC with most of the players on D returning (albeit the two best have left) and I think we are in for a good (but not great) year next year.
I think 8 wins is a definite possibility for this team next year and if UM gives RR the time he needs, I am very confident in the future of this program.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:24 AM ^
I checked out Brian's "Depth Chart by Class". It looks like we'll have a lot of juniors and redshirt sophomores. There's a good chance we'll start to see signs of normalcy in 2011. Provided everything works out.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:49 AM ^
2011 is too late for normalcy, IMO.
while I agree Rich needs time, i don't think he survives another losing season.
you don't have three losing seasons in a row and then magically spring into national contention. even a 7-5 record this year continues a trend of a 2-win improvement each season. that should be more than attainable for a 3rd season. even 6-6 and a low-level bowl win should be enough to keep the heat down.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^
I agree with you about the 7-5 record. That will buy RichRod one more year, but 6-6? After three years? My gut tells me that could be very troublesome. Assuming you beat three of the four non-conference opponents, you would then go 3-5 in the Big Ten. I would seriously doubt that would be acceptable to the powers that be, particularly if the NCAA inquiry turns out to be more than a minor slap on the wrist.
You are right, you won't magically spring into national contention after two losing seasons, but in year three, you should at least break even in your conference.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:02 AM ^
3-5 in the Big 10 after 1-7 doesn't look that bad, particularly with key contributors returning the next year. It depends on if we're competitive in the other games as well.
As long as we show tangible improvement, Rodriguez should be OK. But the first year where we stand still or backtrack, he's done for.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:57 AM ^
Normalcy in the last half of the Carr Era was grossly underperforming considering the talent fielded with the exception of the 11-2 season. Even Henne/Hart Frosh year was an Edwards away from .500 football. Look at the number of starters in the pros from this era and we were not at all dominant...and probably should have been. I don't want that normalcy...I have higher goals.
January 8th, 2010 at 11:19 AM ^
Shortly I plan to post about last year's lousy draft and what appears to be another lousy one. There's truth to the "bare cupboard" idea regardless of who's at fault.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:44 AM ^
Hopeful.
We will get to see what a talented QB looks like in his 2nd year in RR's system.
Hopefully Tate will cut down on the freshman mistakes/turnovers.
The Big 10 doing well in their bowl games gives me less confidence about next year. Hopefully Michigan continues to improve along with the rest of the Big 10.
It's all about the defense. Young talent will need to contribute BIG in 2010.
Confident, doubtful, nervous or hopeful we all need to be ALL IN in 2010.
GO BLUE.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:13 AM ^
As long as Molk stays healthy, our O-line should be improved even compared to early last season and worlds better than the second half. This will go a long way in making Tate look better...
January 8th, 2010 at 9:00 AM ^
I'm not the least bit confident. The Big Ten is going to be really strong next year and I think we have a very small chance of starting the season better than 1-1. UConn won a bowl game this year and they were very young. The conference might be the strongest it has been since 2002 at least.
January 8th, 2010 at 10:19 AM ^
I don't know about 2002 - 2005 had the #1 and #2 teams in the country going into the last game of the season, but next should be better than this year. While I think the Big Ten's bowl success was a bit surprising and shouldn't be used to predict the strength of the conference, I agree the BT should be improved next year.
Hate to say it, but 7-5 looks very real.
PSU loses a QB and their best D player. Royster staying around doesn't help us (after Bradford, and McCoy last night, I don't get why any player with serious NFL potential would risk injury and not leave at their earliest available opportunity). PSU has had some very high recruiting classes the last few years.
Wiscy should be very strong.
Did the real Pryor show up in the Rose Bowl? I am yet to be convinced but OSU has lots of talent; regardless, I don't see a high likelihood of a W over OSU next year.
Brian Kelly did some amazing things at Cincy with very little obvious talent when you look at the players recruited by Cincy over the last few years. Tony Pike was what, a third or fourth string QB in '08. Kind of scary when you think what he might be able to do with ND's talent level.
Connecticut is not going to be Delaware State.
The replacement for Stanzi looked really good against OSU. Iowa is going to be tough.
MSU is not a guaranteed win unless a few more dorm visits are in their future.
I sure wish a couple more recruits had started classes this week.
January 8th, 2010 at 12:51 PM ^
i'm not real sure how to assess the bowl season, as it relates to big 10 regular season. did the big 10 suck when we were getting our asses spanked in the bowls? of course not. there were all the excuses about the long lay-offs. well maybe, just maybe, we finally used that long lay-off the actually prepare for some of the games. or maybe this year just happened to have better match-ups in terms talent and schemes. while i was very impressed by the play of our big 10 brothers in the bowls, i'm not real sure if we can use it to say how good(or bad) the regular season will be.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:59 AM ^
another way to think about this...
we could lose to the big 4 (OSU, Wisconsin, Penn St & Iowa) AND 1 of ND or UCOnn and be 7-5 going bowling.
Of course, it never works out that way. I'm sure we'll lose a game or 2 that we should win, and win a game or two that we're underdogs in.
either way, with some continuity on offense and a tight group of guys buying into Rich's schemes, ANY bowl game should be well within our expectations for next year.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^
after watching another true freshman QB look completely overwhelmed last night. Granted, Alabama has a very good defense...but on the other hand Texas has much better offensive weapons than we do. Tate performed very well for a true freshman out of high school. His ability to make more big plays in addition to limiting turnovers will be the key to our improvement. I really think we can hit 8 wins next year. Count me in the crowd who says we start 2-0.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:19 AM ^
Must be a gas leak
January 8th, 2010 at 9:24 AM ^
The D scares the hell out of me as it again will have lost talent and will only be replenished with younger less experienced kids. OF course, their hunger could equate into a ferocious D but still, the lack of experience scares me like finding out your new GF enjoys using strap ons on her new boyfriends.