Am I wrong to think Houstan might not be a lottery pick/One & Done?

I think we need to wait and see on a lot of things right now. People are very reactionary this early in the year. 2 minutes into the first game people were saying Houstan was the best player in the Big Ten. 

Things will look different after we are in the final four.

He was never a lock. Neither was Diabate.

But it's 2 games.

He's an elite freshman, meaning all he has to do is show potential to be a first round pick. The NBA drafts guys who aren't even starters on their college teams.

So if you were thinking he was going to push for B1G player of the year and go pro...it could happen, because it's been 2 games, but he doesn't need to even come close to be a first rounder. 

Yes.  He's much much better than livers was as a freshman and every mock draft has him as a top 10 pick in the 2022 draft.  NBA teams highly value 18/19 year olds who might still need a year or two to develop into.  Caleb is basically a taller Klay Thompson in 3-4 years.

His first two games certainly dont make him look like a lottery pick.  Too timid.  Rarely takes the ball to the rim.  

Maybe he will come out his shell later in the season, and show us why he was considered one of the best HS players in the country.  

2 games in May be a it early to judge

especially tonight against that joke of a team 

Eh. I’m not saying he’s basketball Peppers or Gary, but people said similar things about them and not just after two games; deep into their Michigan careers people complained they weren’t as dominant as they should have been. We’d give our left testicles for another of either of them right now. 
 

There’s a whole lot of new guys playing big minutes that haven’t had enough game time to get going together yet, and there’s only so many trips up and down the floor in a game to go around. If Houstan was dominating, you’d be concerned about why someone else wasn’t contributing as much.

I get what you're saying because he didn't look like the instant offense done other recent top prospects have, but he's just getting his feet wet. His confident quick trigger early tonight showed how great he could be for us soon.

But, let's see if he can create his own shot and fill it up against the big ten. If he can take the physicality and still shoot and score with confidence then he's as advertised and likely gone. 

Diabate just seems like an athletic specimen with some skill. He could benefit from another year, if I had to guess, but again, it's so early.

He's not there yet

Considering he reclassified a year ahead and is supposed to be a senior in high school, I think he has absolutely shown flashes of being a lottery pick.
 

I think any reasonable person would concede that you can’t draw definitive conclusions after two games, but I think he has been all that I would have expected so far. He started his first game extremely well, and then had a rough start to the second half, but finished nicely.

Then today, I thought he really took it to the next level, albeit against a weaker team, and showed some stints of dominance. After 2 games he has seemed to win every 50/50 ball, has had the second best +/- of all players in both games, and is averaging 12 PPG on better than 50% shooting. Thought he was a little unfortunate to get a couple of charges or those numbers would be even better. 
 

For an 18 year old guard in his first 2 games, I feel like he has shown that the sky is the limit, which could definitely include being a lottery pick. 

Things will start to be clearer in the coming weeks and especially come B1G play. Juwan is still seeing what he has in terms of rotations. Come B1G we won’t be seeing 11 man rotations. I can’t see Nunez remaining in the rotation (Bufkin probably absorbs his minutes). When Zeb comes back where does he fit in? Also, does Williams surpass Johns? Mousa is probably too talented to just be the backup 5.

Houston is polished. Yes, he is not a Cade, Zion-type but I’ve seen much worse freshman be lottery picks (Romeo Langford for example). He has a super smooth stroke and high basketball IQ. The fact that he is 6’8 and can shoot…he has a home in the NBA whenever he chooses that to be.

He oozes talent to anyone who has played basketball.   By mid season everyone will see.

A lot of kids make themselves first rounders/lottery picks during the tournament. That’s when the most eyes are on these players and if they ball out during the tournament and their team makes a nice run all of the sudden a kid can become a first round pick over night. 

Its been 2 games. 

You can’t predict if a player is going to leave early, because all they have to do is decide if they want to. 

He has shown a lot through only 2 games with his shooting and being active on offense and defense every trip down. These early games are tough to judge with Juwan playing so many players and games not being as competitive, but to me he has looked great. Even if he hadn’t shown anything, it’s 2 games into his freshman year. Enjoy him while he’s here.

We’re two games in and Juwan is trying a lot of different combinations. Let’s check back when we’re well into the B1G season 

I'm no basketball expert but he seems like a just a shooter type so far to me.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

There was a lot of hype and expectation with Houstan and Diabate due to their ranking and their physical traits and physical traits.

Franz struggled with the transition to college as well...he didn't put together a good streak until late into his first season I believe.

Houstan is super young - don't forget that he reclassified and enrolled a year early... He should be a senior in HS. His game is still raw, and his strength needs to be built up... While it is my belief that being in college for two years will benefit him, the NBA draft evaluation will play a big factor

To be fair, the kid still needs to learn the system, get some chemistry with his team mates in actual games and is taking on a lot of things with being a student...

Let's see where his is game is in March.

Could be mis remembering but pretty sure Brian said it was flat out unlikely he'd be gone after his freshman year. He's not super athletic and that's what really gets the NBA to draft players early. I'm sure he'll improve but also a good chance he'll be back next year, which is nice.

It’s been two games. You might want to wait till February to start drawing any grand conclusions. 

I hope he ends up playing like a one and done.  I hope he stays for more than a year but I don't obsess over it.  He will decide what his best for him and it often has to do more with how much desire he has to remain in school rather than his talent level.

I was thinking the exact same thing last night, but then I realized that M has had players in the past that have really improved by midseason or went ballistic during the tournament and then turned themselves into a lottery pick. 

Why not give him more than two games before making that evaluation?

I didn’t read all the posts but Houstan is more than likely one and done and what people forget is he reclassified up! He should be a senior in high school 

My newborn is 2 weeks old and he hasnt taken a step yet..i just dont think hes going to be walking before 18 months..i just dont see it.

Actually, OP, the breadth of the talent he has displayed is quite remarkable. If he continues to ascend and refines what he has demonstrated throughout the season he will indeed be a lottery pick. Juwan is not Izzo-he will do everything he can to make Caleb the best he can be in as timely a manner as possible. His offensive repertoire is already quite stunning-I was not expecting him to have this broad of a skillset. I don't know how old he is but as he matures into his adult body self he is going to be one hell of a player. What a shooting stroke-just, oh my!!!

After 2 games? I’d say foolish to begin the talk. Wrong will be determined later. All fans would love to have him for two.

Dude, it’s been 2 games lol

I’m sure you’re not the only one, but I’m not among them.   Reading the scouting reports I was like “how is this guy talked about as a lottery pick, even as high as #5?”  Having now watched him play, I very much see it.  Maybe not as high as 5, but he’s absolutely a lottery pick.  That shot is elite, he’s made some really nice passes, and he can finish at the rim.

Teams don’t draft guys in the lottery for what they can do as a rookie.  They draft them for what they might become at age 23 when you’re ready to give them a second contract.  Because of restricted free agency, NBA teams can lock players up for 9 year if they want, and it’s years 4-9 you care about when you’re drafting 19-20 year-olds.  The first three years is to see development to justify committing to the second deal.  On court production, especially in years 1-2, is gravy for 1-and-done picked outside the top 5.

I'll wait for a list of 18 year old 6'8" versatile 40% 3 pt shooters. His archetype isn't an NBA star, but it's desired by every NBA team, and he's so far ahead of the curve that he'll be in high demand. He has to get better defensively but that's not exactly unusual for players his age.

Btw in these games where he's "struggled" he's averaging 12-4 on 53/42/100 splits. Yea he's gonna be good. 

"but not one to take over a game like projected lottery picks usually do"

Your premise is flawed as this is not even remotely a requirement to be a lottery pick.

Absolutely hard to say at this point, as we are only two games in the season and from what I understand, he should be a senior in high school right now.

However, he has a long way to go with his defense. People are getting past him relatively easy right now. Compare him to someone like Eli, who is probably the best on-ball defender this team has right now. 

His shot is incredibly smooth, but it's also a bit on the slow side. I think he needs to work on quickening his release, as he will get that blocked quite a bit.

But yeah, he does have a long way to go before getting into the NBA lottery, at least from what I've seen so far; however, there are plenty of people we thought the same, and by week two in March Madness, they rose into lottery consideration. He can get there, but there's a lot of work to be done.

For Pete's sake.  It's WAY too early to answer that question.  That being said, I like what I've seen from him in the first two games and it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the year he was a one and done.  Meanwhile, let's just enjoy watching him play for Michigan.  

Michigan fans love to eat their own. 

I will admit that that thought/question crossed my mind as well. I know that it's (really really) early, but so far I haven't seen the kind of explosiveness that I usually see in the one and dones. Fwiw, Sam Vecenie said something similar about CH in his NCAA season preview podcast recently. I hope that whatever happens he gets every opportunity to both succeed at Michigan and put himself in the best position for the next level. 

Also I think, conversely, that Diabete looks like someone more likely to jump. He has a legit, non-Tragic Bronson (for any Shaqtin the Fool fans out there) handle in the open court. I would imagine scouts will be all over that mixed with his rim protection and touch, especially if he progresses this year. My way too early guess is his optimal time at UM being 1.5 years, where either 1 or 2 years could be a good move. 

Barring an injury Houstan is a lottery pick and he gone. Just enjoy this year with him.