All-Time CFB Historical Program Power Ratings (HPPR)
With all the nonsense going on over highest winning percentage (now claimed by GVSU and greatest football program of all time (the AP annointing Ohio State based on manipulated statistics, i.e., only counting the years the AP has been conducting its poll); it's time to set the record straight.
Just as in baseball, where the statistic that is most often used to determine the best hitter is a combination of two basic statistics -- On Base Pct. plus Slugging Pct. (OPS) -- I have come up with a simple and objective measure of the overall strength of college football progerams. It is the HPPR (Historical Program Power Rating).
The HPPR combines the total number of wins in a programs history (in order to credit the historical longevity of the program) with the all-time winning percentage (in order to credit the long-term efficiency of the program). The leader (and best) should come as no surprise. But there are some surprises along the way.
I have listed only programs that have an HPPR of 1300 or higher. Also, these stats are as of the conclusion of the 2015 season and CFP. But updating the list would only cement Michigan on top, as we are 8-0, thereby boosting both our win and win percentage totals.
Rank Team Wins Win % HPPR
1. Michigan 929 .731 1660
2. Notre Dame 893 .731 1624
3. Ohio State 875 .722 1597
4. Texas 886 .710 1596
5. Alabama 864 .718 1582
6. Oklahoma 861 .720 1581
7. Nebraska 880 .699 1579
8. Penn State 856 .685 1541
9 . USC 813 .700 1513
10. Tennessee 820 .680 1500
11, Georgia 787 .649 1436
12. LSU 770 .650 1420.
13. Auburn 741 .629 1370
14. Florida 701 .630 1331
15. West Virginia 727 .598 1325
16. Virginia Tech 718 .606 1324
17. Texas A&M 717 .602 1319
18. Washington 703 .610 1313
19. Georgia Tech 714 .592 1306
20. Clemson 703 .603 1306
That's it, folks. A couple of points: The top 10 programs are on this list are the precise 10 that most people would name as THE Blue Blood legacy football programs.
Among notable absentees: Florida State; UCLA; Miami (FL); Boise State; Wisconsin; and one other -- oh, yeah, SPARTY.
While other criteria have been included in other lists of top programs, such as number of national championships; number of All-Americans and Heisman winners, etc., those are all subjective criteria, based on voting. The list above is PURE (i.e., PURE MICHIGAN), as it is based on objective, indisputable stats. GO BLUE!
November 2nd, 2016 at 7:42 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^
We all get it.... Michigan was a monster program before the light bulb was invented. its so funny how you spend your time trying to justify your existence.
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^
Zippy.
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:45 PM ^
was invented, and before Buckeyes started whacking off to porn in public libraries.
November 2nd, 2016 at 5:03 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^
This is a terrible post. Let's start with the reference to OPS as a basis for this. OPS isn't arbitrary - it's used as a convenient shorthand because it's easy to calculate and is a reasonably close approximation for true offensive value when calculated by more advanced methods (whether your poison is offensive WAR, Runs Created, whatever is up to you). In fact, OPS probably shouldn't just be a strict 1:1 formula - OBP gets a slightly higher weighting depending on offensive context - but folks have decided to keep it as 1:1 for convenience because it's such a good approximation as is and it is so easy to calculate.
Here, you've made assumptions that are mostly arbitrary. Sure, win percentage is key. Sure, total wins is key (though highly debatable, given the fundamentally different prewar college game). But why weight them equally, and why exclude other metrics? That is NOT objective. Your method is highly subjective by dint of what it elects to include and exclude, and how to weight them.
The meaninglessness of this exercise is highlighted when you think about how you would do this optimally, if you had access to an unlimited database of stats and unlimited time to crunch them. Is there really a good answer? My off the cuff guess, as someone who has been on-and-off involved in sabermetrics since the late 1980s, is that the closest you'd get to a "real" historical power rating is by calculating end-of-season ELO ratings (or your preferred power rating technique, whatever) and then averaging those over the period of time of your study - say, since 1945 - to come up with an average end of year ELO rating for each program. But even this idea has serious flaws: is there enough overlap between teams to create accurate ELO ratings, especially in historical seasons? (probably not). Do ELO ratings penalize teams that never get the chance to play the top teams? (probably yes). Is it fair to only measure at end of season, especially since historically, bowl games were looked at as exhibitions? (maybe?)
I like any list that has Michigan at the top of it, but faux-scientific bullshit to make your home team look good is something Alabama or, god help us, Sparty would do. The team is 8-0, and this crap isn't needed.
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^
You can't fool me. You're obviously a Sparty troll. The fact is, I had fun doing it and it's fun talking about it. That's all.
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:58 PM ^
Whether or not your moronic exercise is "fun" or not isn't fact, it's opnion.
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:01 PM ^
A guy picks up a girl in a bar and takes her home. As they undress and look at each other for the first time, she grimaces and says, "Who are you going to please with that small thing?" He answers, "Me."
I had fun doing it. I am having fun discussing it. I am pleasing "me."
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:49 PM ^
but my screen doesn't go down that far...even if I turn it sideways.
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
Actually, their HPPR is 1284. (One good reason to make the cut-off 1300!)
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:30 PM ^
Miami (YTM) was only dominant in the '80's and early '00's; before that, they weren't considered a blueblood.
November 2nd, 2016 at 7:44 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:49 PM ^
for making your point. In addition to the measureable you used add the fact, that complied by College Football Warehouse, lists Michigan as having the highest all-time strongest SOS and your theory is pretty much fool proof.
November 2nd, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
Thank you. I was just thinking about SOS. For most of the past 100 years the Big Ten was the preeminent conference and its members' SOS would have been the highest on a year-to-year basis. The SEC only became a true power conference in the early 1970s. So, yes, if you drill down to weighting winning percentages based on SOS, Michigan would be even further in front.
Additionally, the fact that the Top 10 teams on this list are almost universally acknowledged to be the top programs in CFB history seems to confirm the validity of the methodology -- even though that would bring a subjective element into the discussion.
November 2nd, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^
Leaders and Best.
Thanks very much for a great post.
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:54 PM ^
How do you calculate HPPR? I'm not gettign the same #s. Thanks.
November 2nd, 2016 at 6:20 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 7:16 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 11:46 PM ^
November 2nd, 2016 at 10:06 PM ^
SEC has six (not counting Texas A&M) in the top 20; Only two of the traditional Big Ten are in here. I'm being a little arbitrary here but Penn State and Nebraska have not been in the Big Ten for very long relative to how long they've been playing.