4 of 5 CBSSports "Experts" Predict we are Overreacting - 3 of 4 at CFN say we are not

Submitted by jtmc33 on

4 of the 5 "Experts" picked UM to win...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/expertpicks

However, the bad news is that Dodd picked UM.

Of course, 3 of 4 "experts" at CollegeFootballNews predict we will be really freaking out by 4pm on Saturday:

http://cfn.scout.com/a.z?s=451&p=2&c=557925

However!!!!  Fuitek picked The Illini!!!!!!!

Home team, with three straight losses, is a three point favorite against the road team who has beat exactly zero average or above teams, but, is annointed as the "surprise" team in the conference because the don't embarrass themselves when they lose.

Sounds like the definition of a "toss-up"

Go Blue!

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michgoblue

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:09 PM ^

I can't think of the number of times in the past three years that I started a "big" game saying, "Man, I bet that RR has an ace up his sleeve for this game."   All three MSU games, both OSU games, each of the pathetic B10 losses last year that would have qualified us for bowl eligibility.  Iowa this year.  PSU this year. 

Unfortunately, I have yet to see a single ace.

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: 32166

MGoDC

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^

Illinois is a much better team than the Penn State team that beat Michigan by 17 this weekend (no point in pretending it was 10, they kneeled in what would've been sure touchdown territory given how our defense was playing).

At this point keep your fingers crossed for beating Purdue, we'd be lucky to beat Illinois and the remaining two games are unwinnable.

Joined: 03/21/2010

MGoPoints: 2517

The team the t…

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:13 PM ^

I will be cheering my ass off on Saturday, but how could someone pick Michigan.  Illinois waxed Penn State 33-13, killed Indiana (43-10?....ish), and led MSU at half time.   They also played that team down south extremely close.   This will be a very tough game and realistically, could get ugly.   Purdue will be our best chance to be bowl eligible and we should beat them soundly. 

Anything can happen in a college football game, but if you had to pick this game objectively, c'mon.

Go Blue!  We need a win to keep this coach!  Remember why we made this change and lets have some patience, swallow our pride, and look forward to an exciting new era.

Joined: 07/15/2010

MGoPoints: 974

Chadillac Grillz

November 3rd, 2010 at 3:20 PM ^

I think it's all about how these two teams match-up. Illinois didn't score all those points in their wins with great offense, and they still are an inferior team to Iowa and MSU. Don't forget it's a home game for us and Illinois has relied on TOs and pick sixes against teams like Indiana and Purdue to make their margin/s of victory look more impressive. 

Michigan will probably score more points in this game than any of the last three games (at least 31), and Illinois won't likely do any better than the 34 and 38 scored in our previous conference home opponents (Iowa/MSU). Michigan's D sucks in the kind of uniform way of sucking. We can count on our defense to give up 30+, but our offense could surge and hit 40!

If I had to predict I'd bet on Illinois? Maybe..but it should be within 7 points and it's at home so it's reasonable to think we can win. I'd say that Michigan's style of play and offensive skill will help neutralize some of things that have helped Illinois blow out Indiana, Purdue and even Penn State.

Joined: 01/04/2010

MGoPoints: 2740

pasadenablue

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:21 PM ^

If cfn says something, the opposite MUST be true. List of things cfn predicted wrong: 1) That Dewey would defeat Truman. 2) That the second and third Matrix movies would be even better than the first. 3) That Milli Vanilli would go on to win 10 Grammys through the course of their musical career. 4) That computers were just a fad, like hula hoops and yoyos. 5) That we would never need fuel efficient cars because gas prices would never break $1.50 a gallon. They be fiutakin it man!

Joined: 11/18/2008

MGoPoints: 8296

Tater

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:58 PM ^

One is indeed the number now.  One win will get a fleabag bowl agianst an inferior opponent.  If there is one thing Michigan has shown, it is that they can look impressive against inferior competition.  Six wins followed by a 600-yard offensive blowout of a school from a smaller conference would be a great way to go into next year. 

Of course, I would prefer that they suddenly "get it together" next week, end up with eight wins, and improve enough to beat a decent opponent in a medium-strength bowl for a 9-4 record, but a sixth win followed by a seventh would be enough to show improvement and provide optimism for next year.

As for "overreacting," I agree.  The season isn't over yet, and there is no guarantee that the season is now in the dumper.  I will keep my cup half full until mathematics dictate otherwise.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

maizenbluenc

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^

Yeah, we had the same magic number last year against Purdue and a more beatable Illini, and we lost both games due to poor defense ...

We'll be damned lucky if we make it. My wife now thinks I am a masochist after three plus years of this shit. I am actually thinking about going to see Duke get beat by UVA rather than sitting home, suffering live through the Illinois game. (I'll watch in smaller doses later on th eDVR.)

Joined: 07/21/2009

MGoPoints: 10630

VaUMWolverine

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:43 PM ^

Illinois is "ripe for the picking" and Michigan pulls it off. Get some mojo going for the Purdue game and win it. All of a sudden 7-3 and Wisconsin coming in. Changes the season a little in my view. At that point, although I dont think it would, anything can happen. C'mon Blue! Win this week. Just once! Get something going in the right direction...PLEASE!!!!!!!!!

Joined: 10/19/2009

MGoPoints: 1346

BlueTimesTwo

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^

Man, this place has become depressing.  Yeah, we looked like shit against PSU, and the injuries keep piling up, but anything can happen in any given game,  especially if our offense can get some early momentum.  To declare our last two games un-winnable and to act like Illinois is some kind of juggernaut because they beat PSU, Indiana and Purdue is just sad.

PSU was banged up against us, but they have some of their starters back that weren't available against Illinois, and their defensive backups had a few games to get acclimated to their new roles (still there are no excuses for not pressuring McGloin).  Illinois played PSU when PSU was the least healthy that they were all season.  Yes, Illinois was leading MSU at the half, but like us they got beaten badly in the second half.  Their rout over Indiana was aided by a couple of Chappell pick-sixes, and destroying Purdue doesn't mean a whole lot.

This game could still go either way, and if we can pull it off, 7-5 is still pretty likely.  Scheelhaase has been improving, but I still think he is mistake-prone.  Hopefully we take some risks and put some pressure on him, and hopefully our offense is a little sharper earlier on, since they are not rusty coming off of the bye week.  A win here would do a lot to convince all of the Debbie Downers  to come in from the ledge - at least until our first punt against Purdue, when they will climb right back out.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 13407

Tha Stunna

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:02 PM ^

I don't think most people are totally ruling out a win.  I do think that it's mostly ridiculous to think that Illinois should not be the favorite over us, given recent history and Michigan's current direction.  So far, we look a lot like the JLS spartans, except without the upset over a good team or the crime record.

Michigan's win would have to come from shutting down a one-dimensional Illini offense that is 111th in passing offense.  If we can do that, we might be able to pull off a win similar to 2007, except higher scoring.

Joined: 10/13/2008

MGoPoints: 845

MGoDC

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^

You say "If we can pull it off, 7-5 is still pretty likely."

So basically IF we beat Illinois, you think we can also beat Purdue (big surprise) and then lose to Wisconsin and Ohio State. And yet you dont think people should be declaring those games unwinnable.

Also, Illinois beat Penn State by 20 when they were starting Rob Bolden, not ginger Nick Sheridan. We lost to Penn State by 17. Neither of those two games were particularly close, so I'm not sure how that means Illinois could go "either way."

I'm not saying Illinois is "unwinnable" because I'd say we have a shot -- they arent a juggernaut by any stretch -- but its not exactly a coin flip game. Against Wisconsin and Ohio State what exactly is stopping them from running it for 7 yards a carry every single play? They dont even need to pick on our injured and young secondary because our rush defense hasnt stopped anybody. I'd be extremely surprised to see a single punt from Wisconsin or Ohio State while the game is still in question.

Joined: 03/21/2010

MGoPoints: 2517

you know it

November 3rd, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^

Vegas doesn't necessarily set odds the way they think a game is going to turn out, they set odds so they can maximize their profit and minimize risk.  It's a business.  The fact that the line is going more in UM's favor means more people are throwing money on them, so Vegas offsets that to get more people to throw down on the Illini.  They want balanced action on either side, then the pay out is minimal and they take their cut of all the bets.

Joined: 09/13/2010

MGoPoints: 1

UM2k1

November 3rd, 2010 at 2:59 PM ^

Exactly the point.  Bettors in Vegas are putting $ on M, even though they are giving 1.5-3.5 points.  So the encouraging thing from this is the betting public thinks UM will win by more than 1.5 points (hence the line move).  If I were a gambling man, I would take the Fighting Zooks with the points, just so either way I'm happy (M loses, I win or M wins, I lose, or best posisble outcome, M wins by 1-3, and I win). 

Joined: 01/29/2009

MGoPoints: 3294

kalamazoo

November 3rd, 2010 at 3:06 PM ^

Vegas wants 50% of people on each side to maximize number of bets.  The fact that Michigan is favored may be more because

1) Michigan has a bigger, more respected football brand and bets are still partially emotional.  Michigan is "due" for a breakout game, they may say. 

2) Some people still haven't seen Illinois play this season and just may not believe it...basing bet off of Illinois' record last season (3-9).

3) People use "rankings" like our bad pass defense vs. Illinois bad pass offense and cancel them out without taking into account how we have increased everyone's pass offense stats quite well

4) Michigan is playing at home, often good for 3 points when betting.

I would love to win by 20 and look back on this post and laugh but -3.5 vs a tough-looking Illinois team is a hard bet to take.

Joined: 08/20/2010

MGoPoints: 2566

FoundersFella

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:42 PM ^

start out firing on offense. remember against penn st. they had a 3 and out the first posession? and look what happened, it took our offense a few drives to get it goin and by that time we where down 10. I almost think our offense works to much. should we do what the teams do against us and kill more clock on offense to keep our defense off the field? haha

Joined: 08/19/2010

MGoPoints: 679

kalamazoo

November 3rd, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^

Sometimes I think when a 1st down gains 0, we can be done quick with the no huddle...the offense barely has time to process what the hell happened and how to adjust.

If we gain 0-2 yards on 1st down, my thought is, slow down, concentrate, get the next play right, get some new thoughts from the coaches, don't be so automatic.  If we gain 3+ yards on 1st down, sure go with the no huddle, keep them on their heels, it's working marginally or better.

I'm with you that it is tough to see such a quick 3-and-out to start the game.  Yikes.

Joined: 08/20/2010

MGoPoints: 2566

NateVolk

November 3rd, 2010 at 3:50 PM ^

Good point. Here's another about us on third and long: Generally we do a straight drop back pass play. Denard doesn't roll out and doesn't seem to look to run it.  The devastating triple threat on first down and second down becomes at best an average (and predictable) one on third down.

I am all for doing one of those bread and butter lead draws on third and 10 or more.  Which do you have more confidence in to get double digit yards:  Denard throwing up field on an obvious passing down or Denard running when it is more of suprise on a down where he might have more room to move?

Joined: 07/19/2010

MGoPoints: 6863