247 Talent Composite: How far away is Michigan from competing in the Playoff?
With another year of college football in the books and Michigan still searching for titles, I wanted to look at where the Wolverines stacked up in comparison to the playoff teams we've seen over the years. 247 tracks the talent on the roster and rather conveniently has done so since Harbaugh's first year at Michigan.
What stands out:
Talent matters, but only to the extent of coaching, conference and the state of your rival.
Alabama has made the playoff every year except this one and has been 1 or 2 in talent each year. It took an injury to their star QB to knock them out of this year's edition.
Oklahoma has made the playoff four times with less talent than Michigan, but plays in a weak conference and their main rival has been down for a number of years.
Clemson is in the same boat: Florida State routinely has more highly regarded players than Clemson, but due to the constant coaching turmoil, cannot put it together.
Speaking of FSU, they combine with USC to squander the most talent on a yearly basis. Each team has never finished outside the top 6 in the composite and yet have not made the playoff over that time period.
If you aren't in the top 2/3 in talent in your conference, there is almost no chance you make the playoff. Only two teams have - 2015 MSU and 2016 Washington. Washington was 4th in the Pac-12 and MSU was 4th in the Big Ten. And that's not even taking into consideration the fluke it took to get MSU in the playoff in 2015.
So where does Michigan stand in all of this? Unfortunately, they have everything going against them: They play in probably the 1st or 2nd most difficult division in the sport as well as in the 2nd most difficult conference. Their main rival replaced a legendary coach with probably the only upgrade available and now his protege has taken over and appears to have them firing on all cylinders, so OSU falling off does not look like a solution to the problem. They've yet to recruit or develop a Burrow/Watson type to get them over the hump in the fashion of LSU/Clemson. While the program finally seems to have coaching stability, the inability to win big games has likely put a ceiling on the level of talent that can be brought in in any given recruiting cycle.
You'll note that Michigan's best chance of making the leap occurred in 2016: Ohio State was down relatively speaking, Michigan was near their peak and likely underrated given guys like Glasgow, Stribling, Chesson, etc. + all the experience. Michigan came at the king and damn it all, they missed.
So unfortunately, the answer is what it always is these days: Michigan is toppling (some way, somehow) Ohio State away from making the leap.
https://247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
2015
Clemson 13
Alabama 1
Michigan State 23
Oklahoma 16
Michigan 9 (Ohio State 3)
2016
Alabama 1
Clemson 9
Ohio State 5
Washington 24
Michigan 8
2017
Clemson 9
Oklahoma 16
Georgia 4
Alabama 1
Michigan 7 (Ohio State 2)
2018
Alabama 2
Clemson 6
Notre Dame 10
Oklahoma 11
Michigan 8 (Ohio State 1)
2019
LSU 5
Ohio State 2
Clemson 9
Oklahoma 8
Michigan 11
January 14th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
I agree with both of you, it's not an either or situation. Both coaching and individual hard work have to be in sync. Our QB coach has to stress the importance of working off the field and the QB has to follow suit. Maybe at Michigan it's harder to do that because of the academic rigor and lack of online classes. As I was watching the pre-game segments on Burrow and Lawrence, I couldn't remember a time we had a QB who worked his ass off and sounded like them. We saw it with Baker Mayfield too...instead I feel like we get 5 star stud bros who feel entitled because of what they did in high school. Hoping DCaff is different
January 14th, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^
Motivating and inspiring are part of coaching and development.
January 14th, 2020 at 9:17 PM ^
But if a player is given the starting job and never loses it despite poor play, lack of effort, and an indifferent attitude? That player will never be motivated by anything other than the benching JH refused to make.
You are absolutely right and our coach failed miserably at such a fundamental coaching tenet.
January 14th, 2020 at 9:49 PM ^
Are the coaches responsible for how ill prepared the D Line was this year? Or is that on the players too?
January 18th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^
I was just talking about quarterback, which was a glaring weakness for us. Like I said, coaches are responsible as well.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
Glad to read someone else saying this as well.
Yes, it's recruiting, but it's also player development AND in-game coaching AND playing at a similar level on the road. The first half of the season it was scheme on offense, too, but hopefully we're getting better there.
The other areas though, we're not elite - not top-6 or top-8 - there, and that leads to somewhere between #12 and #18.
We are what we are.
January 14th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
I'm surprised this got so many upvotes.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
Going to the playoffs is different from doing well in the playoffs. Ask Oklahoma, ask Washington.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
True but I'll take making the playoffs over what we're getting now in a heartbeat.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
Talent overall isn't the main issue. It is an issue at certain positions which have a lack of depth, though.
You can't fix the mental block of losing to OSU and on the road with just talent.
We don't even develop the talent we have. We've gotten two top ten players in the nation under Harbaugh and what did they do here that was memorable?
January 14th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
This is where I wonder if either McCaffrey (because of the McCaffrey factor) or McCarthy will be who does it for Michigan.
Just a supremely talented individual who wins a game that Michigan routinely loses and flips the narrative.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
How do we know that McCaffrey is such a talented QB when he couldn't even beat out Shea for the starting role this season? I think we need to pump the breaks before we anoint McCaffrey as the next Joe Burrow of Michigan football.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^
A former 50% accurate passing HS recruit, who is the epitome of a project, has as much cred to the job next season as McCaffery does. Neither was able to beat out Shea, so what does that say about their outlook next year?
I'm almost in the camp of trying to get Costello. He has a strong track record and would be a huge upgrade over what we have now.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Neither was able to beat out Shea
I call "not so fast" on this one.
I think it's clear now Shea was given the starting job -- perhaps as a condition of transfer. I don't think there was a competition/meritocracy at QB at all.
When Shea throws deep, it's either inline with the receiver but under thrown... or it has the distance but way off target (guessing accuracy comes at a cost of him having to heave it down the field).
Dylan can make all the throws when he's on the field.
Yeah, Shea is all over the record books. So is Navarre.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
You're "not so fast" comment is probably pretty dead-on, so I'll concede that statement. If Harbaugh gave the job to Shea, even though he wasn't the best QB on the roster, then what does that say about Harbaugh and his commitment to putting the best players on the field and winning games at all cost?
Tough question: Is Harbaugh complicit with damaging the football team if he didn't let the best player play? If so, what does that say about his commitment to winning?
January 14th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
Is Harbaugh complicit with damaging the football team if he didn't let the best player play?
In general I don't think anyone is debating JH is the coach for Michigan. What it likely does say is Harbaugh is loyal to a fault.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
I think you will struggle to find anyone who thinks Harbaugh is the right person for the job if we go 8-4 or 9-3 again. I'm predicting 8-4 with losses to Washington, Minnesota, PSU, and OSU.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
I think he'd have to stumble more than that to trigger the torches and pitchforks.
January 14th, 2020 at 8:44 PM ^
Loyal or a stubborn know it all?
There's no way Shea won the job on a competitive basis. I'll never believe that.
So JH promised Shea? Or JH "knew" SP would come around? There's no good look answer for the unicorn on this and one of the major reasons people are unhappy with him.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
Dylan is career 18/35 for 242 yards and 3 TDs. That is decent, but hardly enough of a sample size to say he can make all the throws.
If coaches are giving guys starting jobs without them having to earn it, that is a problem. Personally I don't think it went down like that, so I have to stick with the coaches put Shea out there because they thought he gave Michigan the best chance to win.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
In light of all the UFR's I read there's no way the starter at QB was based on merit. I think Stig is right, JH felt obligated to give Shea the job because of the lengths that Patterson went to transfer to UM.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
You don't think that should be a fireable offense?
Ties go to the senior is one thing, but willfully playing a guy you think is inferior to another option is intentionally harming the team.
You can't honestly believe what you posted and not be calling for Harbaugh's head.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
No I don't think it's a fireable offense.He's the coach and that means he gets to do his job how he sees fit. Didn't Bo operate under seniority rules?
I think meritocracy is logical and all things being equal should be the formula but there are scenarios where seniority trumps meritocracy. Do I wish that were not the case in 2019? Yep. I'd rather it be meritocracy at all times but JH is old school and his model was Bo. I can only hope that with Shea gone JH returns to a meritocracy at QB for 2020.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
You're fine with our coach effectively throwing games? Because Bo? Insanity.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:52 PM ^
Not fine with it, but that's apparently how it is. He goes with the QB in the higher class unless faced with overwhelming evidence. It happened with O'Korn (justified, JOK was terrible), Peters (probably should have played sooner) and this year with Dylan (probably should have played sooner than 2H Wisconsin).
Dylan will be the QB this year. Milton will only play significant time if / when he gets hurt.
January 14th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
It shouldn't be how it is.
January 15th, 2020 at 8:42 AM ^
Didn't say I was fine with it, show me where I said that. I specifically said I wish it wasn't like that but it was. Tapping Patterson as the starter isn't equivalent to throwing games. With the benefit of hindsight it may look that way but at the time there was no way to know the Patterson regression would last the whole season.
January 16th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^
Seniority rules when making up the fall camp depth chart, then adjusting it based on how guys perform in camp.
Like I said, I have no problem with "ties go to the senior" like how Greise won the starting job over Brady for '97 QB.
But if you think Harbaugh was really playing Shea when he thought Dylan was the better QB is totally insane.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
That's wishful thinking. We want to think the backups are better than Patterson, but word was that it was even close, he was way ahead of McCaffery or Milton. There is zero reason based on what we've seen from both Milton and McCaffery on film or in high school to suggest either are close to as talented as Shea Patterson. Sorry, if neither was getting snaps this season when Shea was struggling, neither are good enough. And when they've played, neither has shown to be good yet.
I'm just as hopeful s the next fan, I hope one busts out, but I'm not deluding myself into thinking either was close to Shea.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
When do coaches ever replace a returning senior starter (especially one who came off a very good year) at the beginning of the season?
And really, they did replace him in the Wisconsin game. Unfortunately, McCaffrey got hurt and that was that.
January 14th, 2020 at 1:01 PM ^
they did replace him in the Wisconsin game. Unfortunately, McCaffrey got hurt and that was that.
And then Shea started to play better for a while and McCaffrey never saw the field again except garbage time.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
It would take more than bagmen. Theres about 40 schools gunning for P5 football success for real, 4 of em can make the playoff. Most of those schools follow a recruiting and player management approach that can be considered mercenary at best.
So paying players and hiding them in online courses for advanced video gaming alone doesn’t catapult you past the other 39 teams. Most maybe all of em do that too.
At the end of the day you gotta still pay the right players, have a master plan to build a balanced roster, make inspired hiring choices. All the usual stuff. And we have not been good enough on those fronts to be more than a #10-15 team. You cant make B choices and expect A outcomes. Its hard to make A choices as its far from obvious at the time what they are..but thats what it takes to be that #1 out of 40.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
Go look at the list of signees in our 2017 class that was rated #5 in the country. You will cry your eyes out at the lack of productivity from all the four- and five-stars. You could argue that not a single four/five-star from that class lived up to expectations. Ruiz, Ambry, Collins, and Ross maybe.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
Take a look at the stats of Tanner Morgan at Minnesota vs Shea Patterson here for the last two seasons:
Tanner Morgan 2018: FR, Cmp: 89, Att: 152, Pct: 58.6, Yds: 1401, TD: 9, Int: 6
Shea Patterson 2018 JR, Cmp: 210, Att: 325, PCT: 64.6, Yds: 2600, TD: 22, Int: 7
Tanner Morgan 2019: SO, Cmp: 210, Att: 318, Pct: 66.0, Yds: 3253, TD: 30, Int: 7
Shea Patterson 2019: SR, Cmp: 214, Att: 381, Pct: 56.2, Yds: 3061, TD: 23, Int: 8
Then compare their recruiting profiles: Tanner Morgan vs Shea Patterson
We've got a problem folks, and lack of 5 star recruits ain't it
January 14th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
But, but, but, but, Minny didn't play anyone.
Just think if Michigan was in the West and we had their schedule, we'd be in the playoff every year.
/s
January 14th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
You say that in jest but have you actually looked at their schedule?
Barely beat SD State at home (28-21)
Barely beat Fresno State on the road (38-35)
Barely beat GA Southern at home (35-32)
Barely beat a bad Purdue team on the road (38-31)
Trounced a bad Illinois team at home (40-17)
Trounced Nebraska at home (34-7)
Trounced a bad Rutgers team on the road (42-7)
Trounced a bad Maryland team at home (52-10)
Beat PSU at home their best victory (31-26)
Lost to a good Iowa team on the road (23-19)
Beat a bad Northwestern team on the road (38-22)
Lost to a good Wisconsin team at home (38-17)
Beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl (31-24)
If Michigan had that schedule they could easily have gone 10-3 with a decent chance at 12-1.
January 14th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
So what you're saying is Minny beat the bad teams they were supposed to beat.
Won some close road games.
Beat PSU -- which Michigan did not.
Had a better loss to Wiscy than Michigan.
And won their bowl game.
So you basically proved my point for me that there's a bunch of MGoGroupThinkers in here who continuously try to tear down other programs to prop up some faux-superiority for Michigan.
If you're trying to say that M would do better in the West, I say right now that's bullshit. The results say otherwise.
January 14th, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^
Beating South Dakota State or Georgia Southern at home by one score would send the UM faithful into a tizzy just as the narrow Army win did. Saying they won and that's good enough doesn't cut it with the selection committee and it shouldn't here either.
Had UM played PSU at home they win that game and you know it.
Yes they played UW better but they got them at home late in the season.
They beat Auburn, nice win. How many people on this site would have enthusiastically traded Auburn (#10 S&P+) for Bama (#3 S&P+) in the Citrus Bowl?
January 14th, 2020 at 5:47 PM ^
Dude, you're all over the place. Let me circle back... my take is that it's bullshit people are pointing at Minny and their schedule as indicator of weaker competition and they benefit from playing in the West.
You disagree with my take. Which is great -- we can both exercise our First Amendment rights.
But approaching this emotionally rather than from the results on the field doesn't move this forward...
Had UM played PSU at home they win that game and you know it.
I don't fucking know that and that's bullshit.
Michigan looked meh against Middle Tennessee, like garbage against Army (but another popular loser mentality refrain in these forums is "service academy"), and got curb stomped against Wisconsin... so going into the PSU game, that wasn't a win on paper at all.
After seeing the 1st half of the PSU, it still didn't look like a win.
Michigan finally looked like all the speed in space and preseason hype from the 2nd half of PSU to the ohio state game.
But sticking the with the product on the field theme, let's look at Minny and Michigan's common opponents a la your first reply to me.
I think we'll disagree about the PSU game given previous dialog.
Rutgers... who really gives a shit. Given the current state of their program, they're a high school team at this point.
Maryland... that's a push.
Wisconsin... Minny had the better loss.
Iowa? 10-3 for Michigan at home versus 19-23 for Minny on the road -- I don't care one way or another.
Illinois... Minny played them better than Michigan did. Michigan went up 28-0. Illinois came back and scored 25 unanswered points. Michigan's last 2 TDs were because of Illinois turnovers -- the final one coming from a yard out. So make no mistake, while Michigan scored 42, they let it get to 28-25 halfway through the 4th quarter.
So heads up is 2019 Minny better than Michigan? I would say depends on if they played the pre-1st half PSU team or the post 2nd half PSU team.
Also, this is an interesting one from @mitchewr in https://mgoblog.com/comment/243731023
Take a look at the stats of Tanner Morgan at Minnesota vs Shea Patterson
Tanner Morgan 2019: SO, Cmp: 210, Att: 318, Pct: 66.0, Yds: 3253, TD: 30, Int: 7
Shea Patterson 2019: SR, Cmp: 214, Att: 381, Pct: 56.2, Yds: 3061, TD: 23, Int: 8
Then compare their recruiting profiles: Tanner Morgan vs Shea Patterson
So again, where does this Michigan fanbase superiority complex come from? Rhetorical question. Don't answer that because it comes from emotion/opinions rather than on the field facts.
Here's more:
2019 FPI
Mich: 12
Minny: 18
Are those comparable?
2019 RPI
Mich: 18
Minny: 11
2019 Sagarin
Mich: 12
Minny: 18
2019 A&H
Mich: 20
Minny: 12
Shall I continue or are facts too much?
January 15th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
you're all over the place
I'm responding to your points so if I'm all over the place then consider the source.
I don't fucking know that and that's bullshit
Michigan was playing in Happy Valley during a white out and was a Ronnie Bell catch away from tying the game. You're telling me that had that game been played in the friendly confines of the Big House it's unlikely it ends in a UM victory?
Iowa? Yes Michigan struggled with them at home. Nonetheless Michigan eked out a victory during the agonizing offensive transition phase of their season.
Illinois? You're comparing home victories to road victories again. There's a reason that playing on the road is a disadvantage in every major sport at every level.
Did Minnesota have to play ND? MSU? OSU? Nope. Every difficult team Minnesota played Michigan did as well plus those three.
Nowhere did I say UM was superior to Minnesota in 2019 but I think had UM had their schedule they would have fared better than 9-4.
January 16th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^
Iowa? Yes Michigan struggled with them at home.
[...]
Illinois? You're comparing home victories to road victories again.
Make up your fucking mind. If it's a Michigan win, you're okay with struggling at home. But if Michigan almost gives a game away -- hey, it's okay, they were on the road.
All you got is excuses man. Go back and look at the data again.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
Ruiz had a down year to finish up his career.
Ambry looks on his way to living up to the hype.
Nico likely will as well given he was roughly the #200 player in the composite.
Ross, we will see.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
From competing and getting in? Not all that far. From actually winning it and competing consistently for actually winning? Pretty far off, not so far that it isn’t possible to get up there though.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
From what I saw in our bowl game and from what I saw last night they’re not even close. Those teams are playing on a completely different level.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
Michigan is way behind the curve, and it's not just because of "Bagmen". Harbaugh has recruited five 5*'s and was able to haul in a 5* QB to play for two years. Hill and Hinton were freshmen this past season, so you can't expect much. Solomon left early, so we were unable to see what he could become in the winged helmet. Then you have Patterson, Gary, and DPJ. Probably the most underutilized and underperforming players in recent memory. Why is that?
Michigan can release the bagmen all they want, but you still have to develop the talent, utilize their talents and have a game plan that looks to destroys teams, not beat them down until the fourth quarter. While Harbaugh does a decent job of developing talent, he clearly does not utilize his talent nor comes with a gameplan of destroying their opponents. Someone posted a couple weeks ago that Michigan passed the ball 45% of the time in 2019, which was an actual increase from prior years. That is not an aggressive mindset in today's college football world.
Watching the LSU game, you clearly saw a coaching staff with an aggressive mentality that wanted to score as many points as possible. They went for the knock-out punch. Coach O allowed his staff to implement an aggressive offense that took advantage of their skill sets. LSU was an absolute machine on offense all year. They released the Kracken. It was quite envious.
Then you have Harbaugh and Michigan, where they have a mentality that we're going to win in the trenches, and if that doesn't work, we'll keep trying. Michigan was blessed with arguably the best WR corp at Michigan since Manningham, Arrington, and Matthews, and it was the most underutilized position on the team. On top of that, Harbaugh never fully trust Shea to sling the ball all over the place. All that talent and skill was completely wasted.
So go ahead and whine about "bagmen" all you want, but the bigger problem is Harbaugh and his mindset. Michigan will not be able to consistently haul in elite talent (One Top 100 player in 2020) with good development, underutilizing players, and a passive mindset. Until Harbaugh fully embraces the new college football, we will continue to see the results on the recruiting trail and on the field.
January 14th, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^
The aggressive mentality difference was never more clear that just before halftime: LSU has 3rd and 4 or 5, :19 on the clock with no time outs. Instead of playing it safe and ensuring a FG attempt, they run the QB down to the 5 yard line and score on the next play.
Now, flashback to our bowl game and look at the cluster fuck of the last possession of the half for us. Heard an interview this morning talking about Coach O, said he learned from his time at Mississippi, that he didn't need to prove he was the smartest guy in the room and now at LSU he hires people he trust's to do their job and allows them to do it.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
we don't do anything with the talent we DO get! Just look at those composite talent numbers
-mitchewr
This guy gets it.
But the MGoGroupThink will continue to parrot "bagmen" and "online state university" as the reasons in an attempt to prop up any kind of Michigan superiority.
January 14th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
If McCaffrey or Milton can be half the surprise Burrow was, we’re not far. QB is that big in college football
January 14th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
Pretty damn far. We should be talking about how close is Michigan to finishing at least second in their division.