2016-17 Over/Under (Michigan Football)

Submitted by Mr. Yost on

Because I feel bad about adding another OT thread when the board is littered with them...

Here's my Michigan-related thread. You know, it's kind of like chop a tree down, plant a tree.

Here we go...over/under:

  1.  3,000 yards passing for the starting Michigan QB
     
  2. .5 starts for Shane Morris
     
  3. 1,000 yards rushing for De'Veon Smith
     
  4. 1,000 yards receiving for Jehu Chesson
     
  5. 39.5 sacks for the team (last year was 32 sacks)
     
  6. 15.5 interceptions for the team (last year was 13)
     
  7. 2.5 kick or punt return TDs
     
  8. 408 total team points (last year was 408)
     
  9. 15.5 penalty yards called on Jim Harbaugh
     
  10. 11.5 wins for Michigan Football including postseason

leonidaswolverine

July 24th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^

1. Over, because great receiving and Harbaugh

2. Under

3. Under, too much committee

4. Under, too many good receivers, plus blowouts benching him

5. Over, Don Brown brings more pressure plus we have an easier schedule

6. Over, more or less same reasons

7. Over, peppers chesson and lewis are all great returners

8. Over, easier schedule plus lots of returning starters 

9. Under

10. Over, because I'm a homer

drzoidburg

July 25th, 2016 at 4:10 AM ^

he got away with throwing his hat in front of the refs last season, and despite his passion, he won't pull a woody hayes and start throwing the yard markers

"intent to deceive" was for the same reason he argued over the spot after utah missed a FG. He was relearning the rule differences from the nfl

Z

July 24th, 2016 at 3:44 PM ^

  1.  3,000 yards passing for the starting Michigan QB OVER (So many receiving threats)

     
  2. .5 starts for Shane Morris UNDER (Think he'll be the 4th quarterback on the depth chart behind Peters)

     
  3. 1,000 yards rushing for De'Veon Smith UNDER (Think we'll have 2 backs with 750ish)

     
  4. 1,000 yards receiving for Jehu Chesson OVER (But just barely, and because I think we'll play more than 13 games)

     
  5. 39.5 sacks for the team (last year was 32 sacks) OVER (Thank you in advance, Don Brown)

     
  6. 15.5 interceptions for the team (last year was 13) UNDER (Don't think opponents will challenge the secondary enough)

     
  7. 2.5 kick or punt return TDs UNDER (Think we'll miss our special teams coach from LY)

     
  8. 408 total team points (last year was 408) OVER (way over)

     
  9. 15.5 penalty yards called on Jim Harbaugh OVER (way over)

     
  10. 11.5 wins for Michigan Football including postseason OVER (setting myself up for disappointment if they don't get 12 wins)

RelevantBlue

July 24th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^

Under
Over
Under
Under
Under (barely)
Under
Over
Over
Over
Under (restrained optimism @ 11 wins)

AZGoBlue

July 24th, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^

3,000 yards passing for the starting Michigan QB Great - Under

.5 starts for Shane Morris - Under

1,000 yards rushing for De'Veon Smith - Over

1,000 yards receiving for Jehu Chesson - Under

39.5 sacks for the team (last year was 32 sacks) - Over

15.5 interceptions for the team (last year was 13) - Over

2.5 kick or punt return TDs - Under

408 total team points (last year was 408) - Over

15.5 penalty yards called on Jim Harbaugh - Under

11.5 wins for Michigan Football including postseason - Over

gwkrlghl

July 24th, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^

Under on Shane Morris starts - I suspect he'll be #3 behind O'Korn and Speight. Maybe #2 if he kills it in fall camp. I just haven't heard any rumblings of a breakthrough for him yet

Over on points. If Harbaugh cooked that together last year with Hoke's remnants and a transfer QB, I have to assume we'll easily beat that this year

Danwillhor

July 24th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

but the only OL in that game that I felt hadn't improved at all was Kalis. He literally blocked air and his own HB on more than a few occasions. I believe this was pointed out in the breakdown, too.

drzoidburg

July 25th, 2016 at 4:21 AM ^

Right just like they didn't care against florida state? Whatever, our players had no more reason to care. Besides, if you don't want to be ridiculed for terrible play and you aren't actually the inferior talent, make an effort

I wish this excuse would help get "the horror" out of memory, but i have to admit, they had an entire game to prove they were better

Perkis-Size Me

July 24th, 2016 at 3:57 PM ^

1) Over. Unlike last year, we've got three easy games to start off with where O'Korn/Speight can get their feet wet. And this is their second year in the system, so they should be pretty well up to speed by now.

2) Under. Not sure how you have half a start, but I think Morris' playing days at Michigan, minus garbage time, are over. He seems very firmly buried behind Speight and O'Korn on the depth chart right now. Maybe Harbaugh "re-purposes" him, but I don't think he starts another game here as a QB.

3) Under. Mostly because we can spread the ball around with our backs, but he's also not the home run threat guy. I'd guess he'll have somewhere between 800-900 yards.

4) Over. If Chesson picks up where he left off, we'll see great things from him this year.

5) Over. Everyone sans Henry is back, a year older, and a year more experienced. And we have Rashan Gary.

6) I sure hope it's over. The one area of concern from the defense last year was an inability to force turnovers. Hopefully Brown's aggressive scheme will change that.

7) Over

8) Over. Same system, most everyone is back.

9) Over. Well over.

10) Eeesh I don't know. This team could win 11-12 games this year in the regular season, or they could lay goose eggs in the three games that matter most and go 9-3 again. For now, I say under. I think 10-2 where we claim 1 of 3 between Iowa, MSU and OSU, left out of the BTT game, but return to Pasadena and take on Stanford in the "Well This Is Awkward" Bowl.

As for winning more than 10 reg season games, call me a cynic, but I'll believe we can win big road games when we actually win big road games.




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UMForLife

July 24th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^

Over on everything except Shane.Smith is going to have a great year. If what we saw in FL game is any indicator, he figured it out and reestablish M dominance on running game. Chesson is gong to be an absolute monster and I believe in Harbaugh to get the QB reasy

Wolfman

July 24th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^

I can't see any reason for Shane to get any type of start  If the unthinkable were to happen, i think Jim would take the wrappings off Brandon and start his action under live fire quicker than he would normally like. 

There is a reason O'Korn and Jake roomed together last season and it's one word: LEARN. He learned from him in high school, and learned even more last season. If Wilton does beat him out, that mean Speight is doing very, very good, not necessarily that J.O. is doing that bad. 

The reason I think we'll see an upward movement on returns going all the way is that last season, especially on punts, unless Jabrill had a nice launching area, he would make those crazy fair catches I am not sure too many others can make. I think he'll be given the green light more often this season due to bigger leads. Then again, with possible more work on the offensive side, they might give those duties to someone else. I still say we'll make it due to just being a better team as a whole. 

DrMantisToboggan

July 24th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^

1. OVER - Assuming JOK I will say more big plays maybe a couple more mistakes. If it were Speight I'd say under, but I still think it will be JOK. 

2. UNDER

3. OVER - Assuming good health, and my expectation of playing at least 14 games, I think Deveon has a really nice year that gets him drafted. 

4. OVER - Easy to predict after how he finished the year and with our schedule. JOK throws a real nice deep ball. 

5. OVER - It's Really Crazy

6. OVER - See above. 

7. OVER - I'll go one KR and two PR for breezy. 

8. OVER - We got some putzes on the schedule and a whole lotta weapons. 

9. UNDER - One PF on Jimmy this year. As berzerk as he goes, I don't recall a lot of flags for him. 

10. OVER - I expect us to play in at least 14 games. That would mean at least 12 wins. If we are blessed with good health this year I think we are playing in the final college football game of the season. 

Stringer Bell

July 24th, 2016 at 4:24 PM ^

I think Harbaugh will want to run the ball more this year, which is why I don't think we get 3,000 passing yards (Rudock had just a few more than that last year I believe).  With a better running game I think our passing numbers go down.  At the same time, I think Deveon will split with Ty, Drake, and maybe Walker and none of them will get enough carries to reach 1,000 yards.

DrMantisToboggan

July 24th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^

Plus with the exceptional ease of 75% of our schedule we could be running the ball quite a bit. However, all my projections are based on my thought that we will win the conference. That means at least 14 games so that JOK and Smith only need to average 215 and 72 yards respectively to hit those marks. I think that is certainly tenable, even with split carries, especially given who JOK has to throw to and his propensity to take more shots. 

Chadhenne123

July 24th, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^

1. Easily over.  Any of the top 3 quarterbacks on the roster right now all have more physical potential than Rudock.  Plus all the returning starters being in their 2nd year under Harbaugh, plus the possible emergences of TJ, Bunting, Gentry, Perry and a Freshman receiver loom large.

2. Under.  We know Speight and O'Korn are all easily above him right now.  Most likely Peters right now as well.  He won't start, but I would like to see a package where we can use his athleticism and have an Eric Crouch like option game.  Then move him to receiver so we can run no huddle.

3.  Over.  We all know De'Veon isn't Chris Perry but the coaches said he was the clear cut starter coming out of Spring.  Interesting to see if Issac can improve even more in fall camp and maybe start to separate from the pack.  I like De'Veon's physical style for this offense though and I think Harbaugh will try to burn the tires off of his backs this year.  Plus have you seen the schedule?  De'Veon will have over 500 by the end of September.

4. Easily over.  Well maybe not Easily, but I'm sure he'll get it.  Imo the best receiver in the BIG.  He'll get his looks and he won't have Rudock missing him for half of a season this year.

5.Give me over.  With the additions of Rashan Gary, Ron Johnson, Josh Uche and Bryan Mone from injury that's more than enough pieces for blitz happy DC Don Brown to utilize.

6.  This one is tough but I'll go over.  Jeremy Clark really impressed me in the Spring game.  Since teams maybe aren't going to look Lewis' way very much I assume Clark and Stribner will get targeted the majority of the time.  Plus add in rangy Dymonte Thomas and they'll make their plays this year.

7.  I gotta go over again.  Better athletes all across the field for us than a year ago and Peppers is due to break 1 or 6 of them.  Can't forget about Chesson's speed either.

8.  Ummm easily over.  For a brief moment early last season I thought making it past midfield was going to be a chore.  But soon enough a quarterback emerged we saw improvements from our receivers and backs and even the line started to look competent.  The way this offense looked against Indiana is what they'll look like first week of Fall Camp.  What they looked like against Florida will be what they look like against Hawaii.

9.  Over and it's not that close.  We're going for the big one this year, so you know Harbaugh will be on edge all year.  I'm just hoping we have enough players to hold him back if a fist fight breaks out.

10.  I'm sick of being conservative, you're damn right we're going over.  Win the BIG title and our 13 first games.  Get into the playoffs and we'll see what happens from their.  Little worried about playing in Kinnick, but having the black Christian McCaffrey on our side(Peppers) makes me feel a lot better.  Basically the season comes down to OSU's maturation.  They have as much raw talent as anyone in the country but are young as all hell.  Do they gel well enough to maybe upset us in the shoe?  That's the only question I have, the rest will take care of itself.

Go Blue!

Wood_Chuckson

July 24th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

  1.  3,000 yards passing for the starting Michigan QB (Over)

     
  2. .5 starts for Shane Morris (Under)

     
  3. 1,000 yards rushing for De'Veon Smith (Under)

     
  4. 1,000 yards receiving for Jehu Chesson (Over)

     
  5. 39.5 sacks for the team (last year was 32 sacks) (Over)

     
  6. 15.5 interceptions for the team (last year was 13) (Over)

     
  7. 2.5 kick or punt return TDs (Over)

     
  8. 408 total team points (last year was 408) (Over)

     
  9. 15.5 penalty yards called on Jim Harbaugh (Under)

     
  10. 11.5 wins for Michigan Football including postseason (Over)

 

BlueND8n

July 24th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^

1. OVER 3,000 yds because Harbaugh
2. UNDER .5 starts, I think he gets buried beneath JOK and Speight
3. UNDER 1,000 yds for Deveon, but I think he has over 4.5 per carry. Great season, lots of backs get touches tho
4. OVER 1,000 yds for Chesson but it's close. Whoever the starter is, hopefully he can hit on a few more deep balls.
5. OVER 39.5 sacks if this defense blitzes as much as advertised. Peppers should have several of them
6. OVER 15.5 interceptions for the same reasons they will have more sacks.
7. Over 2.5 kick/punt return TDs because Peppers/Lewis/Chesson are all really good
8. OVER 408 total team points because we will hopefully play more games and the offense will click earlier in the season than last year
9. UNDER 15.5 penalty yds called on Harbaugh. I don't see him costing us penalties, I can't remember him doing it last year despite several tirades.
10. OVER 11.5 wins. I see us winning the B1G, don't see us losing to OSU. Even without a playoff win, I think we get to 12.

I don't really care about any of these except the last one. Go Blue!

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

July 24th, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^

1. Under - O'Korn is high quality but ground game actually gets going so passing falls just short

2. Under - Shane sees a few snaps in Q4 of blowouts to save Peters redshirt (JO, WS, SM)

3. Under - Smith is #1 but lots of guys get carries in the first 7 games, especially Ty

4. Under - Jehu gets close and draws doubles while the TEs, Darboh and slots pile up the yards

5. Over - Gary gets 12, Taco 11, Mo 10, JP 8 and then others get 10+

6. Over - Real pressure and Brown's variations create multiple games with 3+ INTs

7. Over - total of 4 with JP getting 2 and 2 guys getting 1 each

8. Over - might have 300 after 7 games

9. Over - refs have mercy on pummeled opponents so toss a few sideline unsportsmanlikes on JH

10. Over - 12 wins