Take Pipkins and Shittu, Dunn is the wild card, if he commits then roll the dice and go without a QB.
2012 Recruiting Thoughts 2 DT vs. 1 QB
We have taken at least one QB for the past 14 years.
If you don't think we should take a QB this year, I refer you to the 2008 season plus 14 years of coaches disagreeing with you.
I agree to some extent but if your last 2 spots are filled by the 2 players I named, then I think you roll the dice. Denard, Gardener, and Bellomy can hold it down for a year with Morris coming the following year. It's risky but so is our depth on DL.
They have to hold it down for 2 years, and then following that, you have Garner, Bellomy, and freshman Morris.
We can take 2 QB's in 2013.
And, FWIW, we only have Denard, Devin and Bellomy this year (and Bellomy will be a true freshman). We probably have the best situation @ QB in the B10.
Quarterback is a more important position than running back.
We have 7 running backs on the roster for 2012 (of which probably only 3 will see significant playing time). That means you've got 4 guys sitting on the bench.
We have 3 quarterbacks on the roster for 2012 (of which probably 2 will see significant playing time).
So you're talking about using only 43% of your running backs, but 66% of your quarterbacks in any given season. And that doesn't even consider the fact that any of the three could suffer an injury or transfer, and the possibility that Shane Morris could change his mind sometime in the next 20 months.
But, how many of those runningbacks on the roster are good players? Smith at best is mediocre in the Big Ten, Touissiant seems like he has never really developed up to this point, Shaw has shown some great moments, but has not been consistant, White is transferring. That leaves Cox and Hopkins left, and both are either relatively young or inexperienced. I did leave out the two freshman (Hayes and Rawls) because of their freshman status, but they could break out and play well as freshman. Maybe someone with more knowledge on judging talent can put some positive insight on these runningbacks?
Also, how do we know that someone like Smith, Touissiant or another runningback may not transfer before their years at Michigan are over? I would not mind taking Dunn this year and Thomas next year with only having taken Morris at QB next year. Nebraska this year only has up to 15 scholarship offers they can accept, Michigan may end up that way next year. I would like to hold that sholarship for a QB this year for someone else next year to have a larger quantity class in 2013.
You mention that one of the running backs might transfer . . .
. . . and completely ignore the possibility that one of the quarterbacks might transfer.
You need depth at both positions. One departure at the QB position could be devastating. One departure at the RB position would probably be met with a shrug.
Quantity wise one departure at the RB position will not be devastating, but when the crop of players at the position are not suitable big players for a conference like the Big Ten then the need of a RB for Hoke's style of offense is higher then a QB in which there are already 3 on the roster and one in a couple years (hopefully). By the time Morris becomes a freshman there will still be three QBs on the roster (Gardner, Bellomy and Morris). It would be ideal to grab a QB each year, but given the certain situation Michigan is in with regards to the depth on the DL and OL and the low quantity of players they may end up grabbing next year, QB is not an issue.
If Morris had not committed then I would say yes they need a QB and hope Morris still commits down the line, but he has stated he is solidly committed on Michigan and would be at least 2 years behind Bellomy. I just think the need for a big back this year is vidal because there is only one big back on the roster, and we have plenty of good QBs with another on the way in a couple years. As I mentioned, I am not a scout expert. I played minor league baseball, but have only watched and enjoyed football.
Riiiiiiight . . . because no 15- to 18-year-old kid has ever changed his mind after saying he's "solid" before . . .
If a teenager says something, you can take that to the bank.
Everybody forgets what happened to the Philadelphia Eagles a few years back. McNabb broke his ankle in the first game and the back up got hurt in the second game (I believe) and they had to start Feely who had zero NFL experience.If that happens to us we have Morris as a true freshman with no back up or another freshman as our backup if we take two QBS in 2013.
People just can't seem to grasp anyway that we could actually need that extra qb on the roster. It seems they forget having to start a new qb every year for the past 3 years. OSU and Nebraska are more recent examples of a real lack of qb depth, and are only an injury or 2 away from terrible qb play.
Of course we've always got Nick Sheridan as Matt's backup.
Current San Diego Padres starting pitcher.
There you go, Magnus, being all sensible and shit. You didn't enjoy the Sheridan Era?
You're overstating your case. You only know that the coaches felt it was right to take one for the particular years they coached. Most of those years Michigan's circumstances were very different.
Different schmifferent. Circumstances are different at every single position every single year. I'll trust 14 consecutive years of taking a QB over "Circumstances are different this year," especially when the circumstances this year are by no means overwhelmingly in favor of going the other way.
Well the circumstances aren't just "different", they're friendlier to not taking a quarterback than any time since at least 2005.
2005-7: Henne takes starting job as freshman. Older qbs immediately become transfer risks compelling us to take qbs in each class.
2008-09: Rodriguez is hired. Statues flee. Rodriguez comeplled to recruit qb that fits his offense.
2010: Rodriguez style qbs are Tate and Denard. As they are both in the same class whoever loses the job is going to be a transfer risk. 2 deep with one transfer risk means qb is mandatory.
2011: Rodriguez style qbs are Tate, Denard and Devin. 3 deep with one transfer risk.
2012: Denard, Devin, Bellomy. 3 deep, no obvious transfer risks. A switch in offensive philosophies puts a squeeze on scholarship numbers. Further putting a strain on numbers-every position group besides quarterback (and offensive line) needs an infusion of talent because of subpar performance. Offensive line needs a massive infusion of talent because of recent recruiting neglect.
The last time Michigan was anywhere near as well set up at quarterback as it is now was 2004. We had a stable system and Richards and Guttierez coming up (I think someone else too). And we took Chad Henne who even then wasn't just some guy.
Okay, you went all the way back to 2005 . . . which is almost (but not quite) halfway back toward those 14 years. Congrats.
Having only three quarterbacks is still dangerously thin. For some reason Michigan fans are okay with having 13 linebackers (for 3 starting spots) and 7 defensive ends (for 2 starting spots), but they don't want to spend a 4th scholarship on a quarterback . . . which happens to be the most important position in football, period.
And if you're against Michigan taking a quarterback who's just some guy, then you should be equally annoyed that Michigan is taking "just some guy" at other positions.
I wouldn't be annoyed if we took a qb who was just a guy, in fact maybe I'd support it. I'm saying it's not a slam dunk.
Maybe I should be annoyed at Hoke for taking on "meh" players at less critical positions, but I think the real problem is there's a lot of dead weight on the roster and that's Rodriguez's doing.
There are too many wildcards about not taking a QB, and the staff has said they want to take one.
Ideally, it would be Devin Fuller, as he can play other positions. Do we have any realistic shot at all?
He said he would visit sometime.
Fuller would be a great pick up, that way if they did not take a full-time QB and if something happened to the other 3 QBS on the team then Fuller can step in and play the position, kind of like Bass a few years ago. If they are ok health wise at QB Fuller can play like a WR position or CB.
Everyone is freaking out about this. At the end of the day I think if Pipkins and O'Brien both wanted to come to Michigan there's probably a scenario where that would work. I don't think anything is set in stone with recruiting, so just take it for what it is right now.
Slow deep breaths, America. In through the nose, out through the mouth.
There are approximately 9 spots left.
I think the coaches can figure out how to take everyone they want to get (provided the players want to come).
I don't see a scenario in which taking both O'Brien and Pipkins would prevent us from getting a QB if the coaches want one.
5. Bars? (think he goes PSU)
Fucking NCAA and their 85 scholarship limit! How am I supposed to finish up our recruiting class?
We already have 4 defensive ends in this class, and you think it's realistic that we take Wormley AND another defensive end but not a quarterback?
I'd say yes if that DE is Washington..
It's a dick move, but if we get Adolphus Washington's commitment, I'd ask one of the currently committed ends to look elsewhere.
Ehh yea this would be getting into shady territory. I guess it would just depend on how it was handled. If the coaches sat one of the DEs down and told them that they might struggle to find playing time here, at which point the recruit decided to look elsewhere, I would be ok with that. But if the recruit wanted to stay committed even after being told that, I couldn't support yanking his schollie.
I agree that it's shady, but it happens.
Which one would you do this to?
The one/ones who aren't as good.
Forgive me, I was hoping to get a name.
If you really want to know my opinion, you could probably take a look at my commitment posts for each one and figure it out.
I don't expect you to go to that trouble, but I also don't want to say "I don't like this particular player."
Washington is a WDE? Probably would be one of those guys if this scenario were to happen. That being said I think it is very unlikely the coaches would try and suggest a commit take their talents elsewhere. The staff is pretty high on most of the guys we have offered, and although a Washington might have more potential than some of our current commits, I don't think any of them are significant drop-offs potential wise. Plus the coaching staff wants to wrap up as much of the recruiting as possible early so they can focus on the season and recruiting for next year, so it seems unlikely they would want significant change in the class later. Plus, these guys are already getting work out tips, communicating with each other, and doing recruiting of their own. They seem to invested in the program for the coaches to pull the rug out from under them. None of these guys are the Jordan Barnes and Dewayne Peace situations with RR.
Some guy quoted Bo earlier about no one guy being bigger than the program. It was in reference to Peat's statement about Notre Dame and Nebraska being leaders but not UofM. I told him the quote seemed out of context in that scenario, but I feel it applies here more. Although it would great to add the talent of Washington, no one guy (no matter how talented) is bigger than the program and what Michigan stands for (integrity, loyalty, dedication, character, etc.). Here is where the SEC sells themselves like a bunch of cheap pro...suits just to win.
Sorry, though I'd like to read your opinions ... do you mind, helping this idiot out, and linking me up with your commitment posts!
Don't name names. We don't know what's going to happen
I've been thinking about this and the only way I think this is acceptable is if the message is something like this:
"If you'd like to come, we'd love to have you, and you'll get just as good a shot as everyone else. I'm sure you've noticed that the depth chart is getting a little crowded, though, and if you'd like to think about moving, we're here to help you find an ideal landing spot."
I'm not a fan of the cold shoulder approach or the explicit "go away" approach.
@Magnus, Up until now, I believe your insight and opinions have been spot on. But I think your opinion on this couldn't be more completely wrong and off base. As much as I want the best talent at UM, I hope we never stoop to the level of the SEC mindset. Doing this is obviously wrong as you've stated, plus it could affect future recruiting. I for one hope everyone that has given their verbals stay commited and UM stays commited to them.
I think we get two more DEs, and can find room for a QB.
1. Washington, DE
2. Chris Wormley, DE
3. Jordan Diamond, OL
4. Kyle Kalis, OL
5. Dwayne Stanford, WR
6. Ondre Pipkens, DT
7. Danny O'Brien, DT
8. Jarrod Wilson, S
9 - your QB
If Wilson or O'Brien go elsewhere, insert Mr. Dunn.
with the coaches only recently offering alden hill, they seem pretty committed to getting a FB/big RB
They have nine or ten spots left...
If we have 15 kids that want to go blue, you can only take 10 -- who do you take? Michigan is looking really good with more than 10 kids, though you have to have options, if these kids end up going elsewhere. I can't see how Michigan says no to Adolphus Washington, and thus, Dwayne Stanford. I think, if we can get Kalis and Diamond, we could easily be done with the OL.
Not at all, I am fucking around. My clever point is that the size of the class doesn't make much sense as it is, so why not just take one more.
That being said, I do think that Godin will move down to a tackle position. We seem to be looking at a major log jam at DE if two more come in. Remember, no true DT were brought in for the 2011 class.
One of the biggest problems the team has had over the last 4 years has been a lack of balance and depth at ALL positions (okay, some misses on talent as well). I'm afraid that too many of us have been caught up lately with the idea of taking the top talent at various positions in spite of possible overloading.
Please take a QB, WR, 2 DT, S, 2 OL, 1 DE, and a RB/FB.
youre missing safety (jarrod wilson) and fullback (Fatu, Houma, Hill). Although Dunn could probably be instead of a FB
You forgot a FS prospect, Jarrod Wilson.
My Top Ten:
Kiel or Mauk
Dunn or Garmon
Pipkins or O'BRIEN (I assume)
8. Hold for random 5 Star
forgot wilson. slot him in at 4
Although we have 4 DEs in this class (I believe Godin will be moved to DT), there would be no doubt that if Washington and Wormley committed that Michigan should take them. I would like to imagine that Stanford is the WR, but his recent change of mind in visiting Michigan it has decreased my hopes of it happening. PSU has a boat load of offensive linemen that have committed to them in the last two years (2010, 2011), so I hope that influences Bars to commit to Michigan. I personally would not take a QB. The rest of your list seems realistic and, hopefully that is the list on signing day.
Pipkins & O'Brien.
DT next year scares me without Martin.... I think it should be a priority... When Martin leaves we have ZERO surefire DT's..... When Denard is hurt or gone, we have Gardner at least
as a senior with a full year of 3 Dline coaches honing his skills, and yet all spring Hokehas been cryptic as to whether Campbell or Washington will start with Martin this year. 2012 we'll have Campbell and Washington, and Ash and likely Pipkins who looks ready to go as a High School Junior. We also have a supply of 2011 Linemen who might play both ways next year when the 2012 crop of OTs show up. Don't be bashing my guys, they aint zeros.
Maybe it's a Jedi mind trick. Maybe the staff is saying they only want one DT in order to push a recruit to make a decision sooner rather than later. Then, afterwords they contact the other guy and say they will still sign him if he wants to commit.
up in here
Everytime I see your avatar, I love it more.
Long time reader, first time poster.
God forbid, but what if something happens with Shane before he signs his national letter of intent. I know he is sold on Michigan and I know he seems like the man of the future, but you never know...I hate to put that thought out there, but I feel like we almost need to be better safe than sorry with a quarterback.
Now on top of that thought, I do not want us to take an average joe and pass on Pipkens or O'Brien.
Agree, he just finished his sophomore year. If the Alabamas and Auburns AKA SEC come to town and take him away, then we no longer have 5 Star Morris. Plus I'm not sold on Bellomy...
The worst case scenario would be that Denard somehow ends up in the NFL draft (either plays really well and goes pro or struggles and gets past by Devin so he goes to the draft as an Athlete). Then Devin gets hurt the following year in the game against Bama and we have Bellomy and a bunch of walkons as our QB depth for the rest of 2012.
Odds of that happening are low, but it's one of the reason coaches try to take a QB every year, which Magnus points out we've done for 14 years straight.
And what if Maty Mauk wants to commit? Do you turn him away trying to hold a spot for Dunn or another defensive kid, then if those don't work you take a flier on a low-rated QB right before signing day?
Worst case is both Pipkins and O'Brien want to come to AA but we turn one away so we can squeeze in a career backup QB who never sees the field, and then the elite DT we turn away ends up at Sparty or ND or Nebraska or Iowa or OSU.
If those two want to commit you take them both and drop OL need from 6 to 5 and take a QB. We took 0 DTs for 2011- not good.
If Denard struggles as a qb, wouldn't it make sense to stick around another year and try another position before going into the draft?
Don't underestimate Jack Kennedy. He can fly and shoot lasers from his eyes.
There are clearly needs at all of the positions mentioned, but at this point my order of concerns is:
A plausible scenario:
Denard suffers a career-ending injury sometime this year. Your two-deep is now Gardner and Bellomy. A strained muscle for Gardner puts Bellomy into a game or games. Bellomy then gets dinged himself or doesn't play well, and you can turn to...a walk-on. Remember the '06 Michigan-PSU game of an example of two QBs for the same team going down in the same game.
The chances of the above happening are small but the fall-out if it did happen would be catastrophic. You take a QB this year for the same reason that you insure your home against total destruction from a fire.
But what if that QB tears an ACL? We clearly need two extra QBs in this class to avoid catastrophy.
Zoidberg: All six thousand hulls have been breached.
Fry: Oh the fools! Why didn't they build it with 6001 hulls?
Disclaimer: I advocate taking a QB in this class.
The following exchange from the Simpson's explains my response to that scenario:
Yeah, but if we get down to 4th string we're screwed regardless. If we rerun that scenario, but with a frosh qb sitting 4th string it's not a slam dunk he plays anyway. A 4th string freshman is presumably redshirting and you have to ask how much better is he than the best walk on, how close is the game, are we playing a rival and how late in the season is it. Not a slam dunk at all.
Trust the coaches. Thats really all there is too it...
Everyone is making Bellomy sound like a 4 or 5 star prospect. You have to remember Robinson and Gardner seem to be way more physically talented and gifted than Bellomy. He could be a hidden gem, but to my knowledge I don't think we can count on him as a starter by any means. If we get a player like Kiel or Mauk, we won't have to worry about him contributing.
I agree with you about Bellomy and it would be an extremely nice surprise if he came out to be a hidden gem. The problem for me is that if we feel like we HAVE TO take a quarterback in this class, and we miss out on Kiel and Mauk, then which direction we go? People have said Appleby, but would he be much better option than Bellomy? I do not feel like we should take a quarterback to just take a quarterback. It needs to be with a purpose. So, if we do not get Kiel or Mauk, who fits that purpose?
The purpose is to have another viable option at quarterback if he needs to play.
Am I the only person who watched Bellomy's tape and thought we got a really good player. I could honestly see him playing his senior year over Morris. Kid looked like a very good athlete.
I think he could be good later in his career. I'm not under the impression that Bellomy is dead weight at all. Not a superstar, but he could be a decent starter in college.
I tend to agree with taking a QB every year but realistically if all 3 QBs go down I dont think it will matter if a freshman 3 star takes over or not. the season would be lost regardless. It's highly unlikely our defense will rise up and hold teams under 10 or anything like that. Just like the draft , sometimes you just take the best player available. But that's a coaches decision.
Example: Sophomore John Navarre left something to be desired but he still gave Michigan a much better chance of winning than did Nick Sheridan (who did his best, don't get me wrong).
Good point. I would be torn though still with a blue chip DL vs safety net QB choice. Glad I don't have to make that decision.
I know Shane very well and he has told me repeatedly there is no chance he would decommit. This is his dream school (See Bo for reference) and told me he doesnt even want to talk to other schools. He is 100% committed.
That makes me feel warm and fuzzy. Tell Shane to stay healthy and keep practicing
This is awesome. I hope he knows how excited we all are to see him at Michigan.
that no matter how the recruiting plays out there will be top prospects that we cannot take, even though some may have interest