Is 2 High the Buckeye Kryptonite?
Read two articles today stating that the reason big play QBs like Bill's Allen and Chiefs Mahomes have struggled this year is because teams have reversed their strategy from stopping the run to forcing the short stuff by keeping two safeties back. I know Harbaugh believes the best rushing team wins a game, but it seems to be stopping a lot of high powered NFL offenses. Here is a quote on the Colts who have really gone all in on this:
"Allen has developed into one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks because of his ability to make big plays down the field, but he has struggled this season when teams play coverages that take away the deep shot down the field. Two weeks ago, Jacksonville kept its safeties back in two-high — two safeties backed up deep — and flummoxed Allen to pull off a 9-6 upset nobody saw coming."
Given our relative talent in the secondary this year, could we shut down the big plays with our two safeties back? Can they make the open field tackles necessary on the short stuff to some fast Buckeye receivers?
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
Not sure.
But it would not surprise me to see OSU run effectively on us as we attempt to account for the passing game both in coverage schemes and in use of pass-rushing types in the front seven.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
Agree about the run game concern. They are so loaded with offensive skill talent, it is easy to overlook that they also field the best OL UM will face all season.
As badly as I long for a UM win this weekend, I wish even more for something to break up the insane recruiting imbalance that has locked in OSU/Alabama/Georgia/Clemson into always having three of the four playoff spots.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
Yeah and their skilled players get all of the headlines but they have some really good OTs - 4 of them to be exact. And they've moved 2 of them to the OG position. Can't think of his full name but the one named Petite- something (LT) has been projected as a 1st or 2nd rounder in almost every mock NFL draft. Their RT is that 6-8, 360 lb guy that is so good they moved last year's OT to the inside. This is going to be a showcase battle between our DEs and their OTs. To add: they rotate 8 to 9 OL a game
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^
Their OT's are good but inside they def take a step back.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
Nicholas Petit-Frere - last name translates to "Little Brother". Should have been a Sparty.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
Petit-Frere should have played for us, against Sparty.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:07 PM ^
Senior captain Thayer Munford who was a 3 year starter at LT suggested to the coaching staff that Dawand Jones (6'8" 360lbs) needed to get on the field, and he was willing to shift inside to LG to make it happen.
So Nicholas Petit-Frere shifted from RT to LT, Munford from LT to LG, and Dawand Jones took over as the starting RT.
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:15 PM ^
That may happen this year. Clemson is out of the picture already. Alabama needs to beat Georgia as an underdog in the SEC Championship Game to make it (IMO), and OSU needs to win two games where they are favored, but neither is a gimme.
I like the 2 high strategy. It uses the same bend not break approach that our boys have been playing this season. It also forces OSU to avoid a big mistake over several plays. If they do, tip your cap, but that beats giving up a TD on a 2 play drive. As I've said elsewhere, even a close loss probably gets us to the Rose Bowl.
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
Agree on the recruiting imbalance. I think expanding the playoffs -- long overdue to start with -- would be a good step.
All these Harbaugh critics over the years failed to consider that while bottoming out with RichRod & Hoke, Michigan helped create this monster to the south
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
If Ohio State has more run plays than pass plays, that's a win for us. Ohio State is most dangerous at receiver, because they either beat you deep or they get a guy in space who YAC's his way through the defense with smooth elusiveness for quicker scores.
Force them to become Wisconsin basically. They can run the ball, but they don't want to. Force them to play 3 yards and a cloud of dust. That's how you beat them.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
The thing that concerns me with the OP's comments is about taking away the deep stuff (good), but opening up some of the short, underneath stuff. It's a pick your poison sort of scenario b/c we've also been burned on some of that underneath stuff, like the screens and crossing routes/rub routes. With their playmakers in the slot or out of the backfield, that's also a scary prospect. I guess it's better than letting Olave and Wilson get free for a 40+ yard bomb for a score, but still not great bob.
I'm just jaded.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:18 PM ^
The difference is that stuff isn't as likely to burn you for big plays when you're playing zone. In man, there's no one waiting on the other side of those crossing routes. Generally against a zone, those plays require you to work down the field slowly and don't break for big plays.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
That's exactly what they did to Sparty. The MSU DBs were playing back at the beginning of the game - dropping everybody - to prevent anything going over the top and deep. So OSU hit them with some short - intermediate pass plays to draw them in and then boom - they hit some big long ones that just blew it open.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:56 PM ^
IMO, the UM offense has to put up 40+.
https://twitter.com/syrmotsag/status/1462946426812604418?s=21
Michigan has the #7 Scoring Defense playing against an average offense ranked 83rd, OSU is #1. OSU is the #16 scoring defense going against UM who is 15th in offense.
I bought .5 a point taking OSU -7, it’s a rivalry game but still seems like a good bet.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
I mean that’s fine if we can occasionally hold them to field goals. We aren’t stopping them from putting up yards or some points. People can’t approach this game with the idea of stopping osu consistently, they are more talented and have more athleticism and the rules favor offenses even if you can get to equal. The question is can we force enough field goals/turnovers and have a good enough offensive day to win like 38-35. Just like the msu game where the issue was walker cashing in his 50 yard runs for touchdowns, they can have all the 70 yard drives they want if they aren’t consistently ending in touchdowns
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:45 PM ^
Good example of how a vertical attack can put stress the run game.
https://twitter.com/cfbnerds/status/1462872505312497665?s=21
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
This is my thought...play conservative D, give them the short stuff, and hope that they misfire a couple of times or one of your big-time playmakers (Hutch, Ojabo) hits them for a TFL. Make them string together plays. Last thing we should want to see is some super-aggressive D selling out to get pressure while leaving the secondary to deal with the 3 or 4 difference makers on the outside.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
So the last thing we should do is exactly what we did the last two times we played them?? Thankful that Don Brown is gone, hopefully MacDonald can dial up a few stops.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Exactly! Whatever we did in 2018 & 2019...do the EXACT OPPOSITE!!!!!
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
I really don’t have a feeling one way between agressive and bend-don’t-break, but it’s fallacious to think that a conservative Macdonald D would be the same as Brown’s. There’s a bit more nuance there
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
LOL, exactly what I was saying as I was reading.
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
Good point. Our pass strength is with our ends... The long ball gives them a chance to get home. I'd give up one long one for a nasty hit on stroud to get him thinking
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
The Purdue's upset a couple of years ago was the textbook example of this. OSU consistently drove into the Red Zone in that game but wound up kicking several FG (and being stopped on 4th down a couple of time). Compressed field eliminates the deep passing game and the passing windows get tighter.
OSU is going to move the ball, they are going to get yards and points. Minimizing the big plays will be essential to potentially winning this game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
Yes. Think about how you stop Army's triple option, never pass offense. You load up the box and throw a ton of dudes at the line of scrimmage. Now, how do you stop the opposite approach on offense? You send a ton of dudes into coverages (disguising them as much as possible) and send 1 extra man at the QB from every angle imaginable. Ryan Day is smart, but he's also impatient. He doesn't want to hand the ball off to Treveyon Henderson 10 times in a row. He wants Olave, Smith-NJigba, and Wilson with the ball in their hands 5 yards downfield so they YAC their way to the endzone. If you force Stroud to read 20 different coverages 10 plays in a row while trying to figure out where the 1 dude is coming from, he's gonna make a costly error at some point. Michigan needs to turn Ohio State's offense into a mirror of Michigan's offense, a run heavy 3 yards and a cloud of dust outfit. Do this by making deep passes impossible, and goading them into "taking what the defense gives you" which is a 3-5 yard quick pass or 5-6 yard run. Over and over until Ryan Day gets fed up and has Stroud launch the ball into double coverage just to try something explosive.
Compare that to what Ohio State will do to us. They'll load up the box and throws dudes at the line of scrimmage and see if we're willing to throw the ball around. Make the other offense play against their desired gameplan.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
Ryan Day is smart, but he's also impatient. He doesn't want to hand the ball off to Treveyon Henderson 10 times in a row.
Sadly untrue. Day will take advantages where he has them, and if that's the running game, so be it. OSU RBs Dobbins and Teague combined for 43 rushes against Michigan two years ago, when that was where we were most vulnerable. Day will gladly hand it off on every play if Michigan cannot stop it.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
But that's the thing. We're fine if he's feeding the RB's every play. The RB is great, no doubt, but Olave/Smith-NJigba/Wilson are the killers that make their offense so deadly. If they're forced to rush 50 times and only pass 15, that's a win. Because that equals longer, slower drives. Reducing the number of opportunities for them to score (by reducing overall possessions) is the key. Fewer possessions means higher variance which favors the underdog.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
As noted above, in 2019 Dobbins and Teague combined for 43 carries but Dobbins had 211 yards, 6.8 YPC, and 4 touchdowns. We have to take away big plays AND stop the run game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
There's definitely no good answer. My entirely non-expert take, though, is that Michigan should try to limit the total possessions in this game as much as possible and hope that luck goes its way a couple of times. Maybe Henderson will be abducted by aliens at halftime. Who's to say?
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
I cannot agree more. And I also cut off my quote on the OP. It went on to say:
Indianapolis took Jacksonville’s strategy and added a twist.
“Showing two high, moving on the snap,” Moore said. “Our disguises were going to be a very important thing for today. Pre-snap, we were going to show a certain play, and post-snap we were going to show a different play.”
Like you said, go all in to stop the passing game but disguise the occasional reversal to catch them in the run game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^
Can college players figure out how to do that without getting themselves confused in 5 time?
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
So rush 5 and drop 7. I think that is how the math worked out in this description.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
I feel like figuring out a way to sneak 12 men on the field for every defensive play would definitely improve our chances.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
It all comes down to can Michigan get to Stroud? If we can, then good things will happen. If not he and that offense will pick us apart eventually. Hit the California kid early and often in the 30 degree weather.
The one good thing is Don Brown and his scheme are gone. You’re not playing man against this much talent and having success, and Brown refused to adjust. We got to see where the flaws were when MSU went tempo, honestly that game was a huge help in prep for this one. I like the fact we have a guy with an NFL background running the D this time around. Disguise looks, confuse stroud, bring heat from everywhere. This is a big spot for a relatively unproven QB on the road - he’s gone against Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana. The big house will be a much different animal on Saturday.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^
Short passes take our rushing ends out of the equation though. 3 step drops all but prevent QB sacks, hurries and pressures. Sure, there maybe be more tipped passes at the LOS, but this would eradicate our defensive strengths at the book ends. I am not sure we have the right answer, nor do I obviously, but we can't play Cover 3 or Cover 4 and hope they just keep doing bubble screens and out routes.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
If you can force OSU into running on 1st and 2nd downs, then you are having a battle between OSU's (excellent) back and (excellent) line against our (excellent) back and our (excellent) line as to who can score more, and that's a fine war to have.
If our WRs are trying to out dazzle theirs, we're screwed, because their WR room is even better than Alabama's from a couple years back.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
Better than Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith, and Waddle? I don’t know.
I would compare them to LSU in 2019 with Jefferson and Chase
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:30 PM ^
The difference between the 2021 OSU and the 2020 Bama receivers is that Day has previous overall #1 WRs - Fleming and Egbuka - ready to take their turn when those guys leave. Marvin Harrison is right there with them. When those Bama WRs left, the well was dry as they even had ex Buckeye Jameson Williams transfer in this year - he wasn't going to see much playing time at OSU this year and is the star in 2021 for Bama
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November 22nd, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
If 2 High doesn't work, it'll be time for this.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
I tended to get 2 High in college pretty frequently. 10 High would have killed me!
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^
My mom used to buy this stuff for her whiskey sours. Truly bottom dollar stuff.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
Yeah possibly...two high, and I think you have to try and jam them off the line as best you can. That could give D.O./A.H. enough time to get some pressure. Stroud gets the ball out so quick....
Easier said than done with three freaking NFL receivers.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
Football is so much more like a chess match than I ever realized.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
That's what makes the sport so beautiful. An outside just sees 11 guys trying to smash into eachReply other repeatedly. Football is the ultimate team sport and there is so much that goes on during every play.
Also, gotta disagree with the OP and the idea of just sitting back and allowing OSU to run. OSU has dominated the last two games particularly because they've been able to get whatever they want on the ground. While you don't want those WRs breaking open downfield for big plays and TDs, you also can't allow OSU to get 5-7 YPC like they have the past couple years.
It will take a total team effort defensively to slow down the Buckeyes. When Michigan gets OSU to a 3rd down, they HAVE to get off the field. Try and get them into 3rd and long and then mix your coverages and try to get that pass rush home.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
The game of chess (and football) is like a sword fight - you must think first before you move
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
It’s not complex. All we have to do on defense is run the old ‘don’t let them score play’. Works like a charm.
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
More than Harbaugh realizes too...
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
Screw you. He's forgotten more about football than you will ever know.
November 23rd, 2021 at 5:34 PM ^
You have no sense of humor. Relax. You'll live longer.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
It might be the closest thing to kryptonite that there is for them, but even if Michigan takes that approach the idea of Treveyon Henderson getting a head of steam before encountering our safeties, or their receivers catching the ball underneath and then having a chance to run is only slightly less terrifying than the idea of trying to cover them downfield.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
Here is a quote from the other article I read in today's Wall Street Journal article on the two high defense:
"The Chiefs are the ultimate example of a team that vertically attacks the field with a quarterback in Mahomes who led the NFL in 2020 in passing plays that went for at least 15 yards. But in 2021, he’s running into an inordinate number of these two-high looks in response: Entering Sunday’s action, he had seen them 55.8% of the time—or about 55% more often than the league average.
That has been part of a steady increase. In 2019, when Mahomes won the Super Bowl, he saw two-high 31.1% of the time. In 2020, he saw it 49.2% of the time. "
Not sure it is a perfect comparison, but CJ Stroud certainly has been playing like a 2019 version of Mahomes and perhaps two high makes the rest of the vaunted OSU offense prove it can carry the load.
And here is more on Allen's troubles with the Tampa 2:
"Fortunately for Allen, the next week he played the New York Jets, who apparently didn’t know much about this. They used two-high just three times against him—and Allen torched them in a 45-17 win.
That changed again Sunday. The Colts showered him with those looks. Allen struggled, again. He threw two interceptions and ended the game on the bench after getting blown out 41-15. "
Now both Allen and Mahomes just never warmed to the "dink down the field" passing attack and perhaps Stroud more readily shifts gears, but when you are the underdog you have to innovate and let's face it .... Day and Stroud just took Baghdad (East Lansing) by halftime with shock and awe passing .... they don't think their Heisman-winning passing attack can be stopped even with two deep. I am betting on Hubris winning out even when we clearly go all in on two deep.