WInEx's Big Ten Bowl Outlook
With play concluded and nothing to do except wait for the BCS tomorrow, here's your Big Ten Bowl Outlook, with two weeks to play.
First, the standings (ordered by projected conference finish)
TEAM, W-L / ConfW-L; Games remaining, Proj Record
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin, 9-1 / 5-1; @Mich, NW, 11-1 / 7-1 (Higher BCS than Mich St , OSU)
Ohio St, 9-1 / 5-1; @Iowa, MICH, 11-1 / 7-1
Mich St, 9-1 / 5-1; PUR, @ Penn St, 11-1 / 7-1
Iowa, 7-3 / 4-2; OSU, @Minn, 8-4 / 5-3
Penn St, 6-4, 3-3; IND, MICHST, 7-5 / 4-4
Illinois, 5-5 / 3-4; NW, @ Fresno St (?!?!), 6-6 / 4-4
Michigan, 7-3 / 3-3; WISC, @ OSU, 7-5 / 3-5
Northwestern, 7-3 / 3-3; @Ill, @Wis, 7-5 / 3-5
Purdue, 4-6 / 2-4; @MichSt, IND, 5-7, 3-5
Minnesota, 2-9 / 1-6; Bye, IOWA, 2-10 / 1-7
Indiana, 4-6 / 0-6; PENNST, @ Purdue, 4-8 / 0-8
So first we eliminate the non-bowl eligible (Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana), leaving us with 8 bowl eligible teams. I'm now going to rank them by overall record instead of conference record:
1) Wisconsin (highest BCS), 11-1
2) Ohio St (2nd highest BCS), 11-1
3) Michigan St, 11-1
4) Iowa, 8-4
5-t) Penn St 7-5
Michigan 7-5
Northwestern 7-5
8) Illinois 6-6
Now it looks like the Big Ten is going to get two BCS teams if the form holds as expected, those should be Wisconsin (Rose Bowl) and Ohio St (at-large). The Big Ten affiliated non-BCS bowls are:
Capital One Bowl (Orlando, 1 Jan)
Outback Bowl (Tampa, 1 Jan)
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, 1 Jan)
Insight Bowl (Tempe, 28 Dec)
Texas Bowl (Houston, 29 Dec)
TicketCity Bowl (Dallas, 1 Jan)
Little Cesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, 26 Dec)
The non-BCS bowls go in order of selection, with the only requirement being you can't choose a team more than 2-losses different than the team you're "supposed" to choose in that slot (i.e. the Capital One Bowl with the #2 Big Ten selection can't choose a team with more than 2 losses more than Michigan St, the highest Big ten team not in the BCS). With that being said, here's my bowl projections:
Capital One Bowl (Orlando, 1 Jan): Mich St v. SEC #2 (right now LSU or SEC champ game runner-up)
Outback Bowl (Tampa, 1 Jan): Iowa v. SEC #3 (Fla / So Car / Alabama)
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, 1 Jan): Between Mich & Penn St... I'm going to say Mich since they're a more attractive team at this point. Michigan v. SEC #6 (Ark/Ken/MissSt)
Insight Bowl (Tempe, 28 Dec): Penn St v. Big 12 #4 (Mizzou or Baylor)
Texas Bowl (Houston, 29 Dec): Northwestern v. Big 12 #6 (Tex A&M or Texas)
TicketCity Bowl (Dallas, 1 Jan): Illinois v. Conf USA #1 (UCF)
Little Cesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, 26 Dec): Big Ten will vacate this slot since with two Big Ten BCS teams, we won't have enough to fill this
Observations:
- I really think Michigan is a lock over any other 7-5 team in the Big Ten, and MAYBE, just maybe we're more attractive than a 8-4 Iowa to a bowl committee, meaning we're looking at a range of Outback through Texas Bowl. Unless we upset both Wisconsin and Ohio St, and Michigan St drops one game the last two weeks, we're probably out of the Capital One Bowl. Even with two upsets, we're probably still looking at best at the Outback Bowl in a pick em vs. Iowa since Mich St would get a Rose Bowl and Wisconsin would get a BCS at-large. Realistically, I'd say pack our bags for Jacksonville
- Northwestern with Persa out for the year isn't a real attractive team anymore. Illinois could jump them in picking if Illinois can manage to win one out of two against a Persa-less NW or Fresno St.
- I don't think there's going to be a big consternation over the bowl selections this year. If the chalk holds as I predict, everything should shake out realtively according to plan with the possible Michigan / Penn St swap for the Gator / Insight Bowl
- A 6-6 Illinois team could still get a New Years Day game. wow.
-
If somehow the Big Ten only gets one BCS team, the only change I tihnk would be is everybody moves down one slot....
except I don't know how but I have this feeling that Jerry Jones would LOVE to have Michigan in his Dallas bowl game on 1 Jan, especially with alumni coming back in two years for the '12 game vs Alabama. can he personally vouch for 10,000 Northwestern tickets at the Insight Bowl?:) - EDIT:: The Dallas bowl game (TicketCity Bowl) is not the Jerryworld Spectacular, but a bowl game being staged at the ACTUAL Cotton Bowl. So yeah, no Jerry Jones conspiracy theories...
November 13th, 2010 at 9:15 PM ^
We are going to the Insight Bowl. Maybe we can face Texas!
November 13th, 2010 at 9:30 PM ^
Texas is not going to the Insight bowl, even if they are lucky enough to make a bowl game. They'll have to beat A&M to get their sixth win.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:22 PM ^
Yea, I have heard nothing but insight bowl as well. Why are people saying this if it seems that penn st would finish in front of us.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:23 PM ^
will take Iowa over Michigan because Iowa fans tend to travel well in bowl games. It may be different because it's Michigan's 1st bowl appearance in 3 years.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:24 PM ^
PSU could be more attractive if it is known to be JoePa's last game. I agree that they are the only realistic competition for that Gator Bowl slot though.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:14 PM ^
Joe Pa already said he can't wait to comeback and coach the kids he has now next year so that's not happening.
November 14th, 2010 at 1:49 PM ^
So then he really is planning on coaching until he dies.
He has reached the magic 400 win plateau and his health appears to be MUCH worse this year than last season...why on earth would he keep on coaching?
November 13th, 2010 at 9:24 PM ^
November 13th, 2010 at 9:24 PM ^
I really question whether we can jump PSU if we have equal records. The only thing we have going for us is the fact that we haven't made a bowl in a few years, so everyone will want to see us play. Insight Bowl looks more likely. Now, if Indiana upsets PSU or we upset OSU...
November 13th, 2010 at 9:24 PM ^
November 13th, 2010 at 10:04 PM ^
Beat me to the punch. Actually, if Michigan can't win one of the next two, I'm hoping this is where we end up, since one crappy bowl isn't much different from another, and the Cotton Bowl is within walking distance of my house.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:29 PM ^
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/6776/big-ten-bowl-selection-tidbits
I think a bowl-starved Michigan fanbase would be VERY attractive
November 13th, 2010 at 9:46 PM ^
November 14th, 2010 at 11:48 AM ^
Alamo Bowl : )
November 13th, 2010 at 9:50 PM ^
It seems like that's from last year.
Wisconsin ain't going to the Champs Sports Bowl.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:30 PM ^
November 13th, 2010 at 9:33 PM ^
I'd consider it an equal playing field nationally. Penn State fans might have the edge for lack of fan base wanting to kill each other over head coach/defensive situation.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:08 PM ^
1. Fanbases travel equally well
2. M is much bigger TV draw
3. Denard!
November 13th, 2010 at 9:30 PM ^
Thanks for the nice post. The breakdown was helpful.
If MSU plays LSU or the SEC runner-up, that will be a bloodbath.
I keep hearing Insight bowl, but a big win or two might change that. PSU should win at least 1 more game, maybe 2.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:31 PM ^
So you think we'll get two teams in the BCS? How's that?
| Position | Team |
|---|---|
| ACC Champ | lol |
| Big XII Champ | Nebraska? |
| BigEast Champ | lol |
| Big Ten Champ | You Pick'em |
| PAC10 Champ | Oregon* |
| SEC Champ | Auburn* |
| At-Large | TCU |
| At-Large | Boise State |
| At-Large (SEC) | LSU |
| At-Large (other) | ? |
Asteriks are mMNC picks.
I'd consider you quite the homer to think the SEC won't get a team into the BCS if they have someone in the championship already. I'd consider you quite the homer to think that the SEC won't get a second school anyway.
That really only leaves one spot left between the other side of the Big XII championship game, a replacement pick from the PAC10, and a second Big Ten team. I don't think you could say Wisconsin or Ohio State is a lock over Stanford (pending tonight/rest of season), or maybe even the other Big XII teams.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:36 PM ^
i laid out the reasoning there why a 2nd Big Ten team is more likely than a 2nd Pac-10 team (especially when you take into consderation the actual games and the order they select). Boise still isn't guaranteed a BCS slot, only the top non-AQ school in the top 12 is guaranteed a BCS slot, and unless TCU gets in the championship, an undefeated Boise St isn't a lock. I still maintain that a 1-loss big Ten team is a better draw (especially if that's Ohio St) in an at-large Sugar Bowl against a 1-loss LSU than trying to bring Stanford all the way across the country, hence, the Big Ten gets two BCS teams.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:58 PM ^
From what I understand, even if one of Boise St or TCU get in the championship game, the other one still isn't guaranteed a BCS invite.
Edit: Unless they qualify for the auto bid from the #3/4 spot.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:59 PM ^
i went over this in detail in last week's diary on BCS analysis.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:04 PM ^
So if TCU goes to the championship do you think Boise State gets a BCS bid? I guess in that situation they would almost certainly wind up #3 which would kick in the auto bid.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:18 PM ^
of BCS selection rules 3a & b, that's the only way two non-AQ conference teams get auto-bids. If TCU gets in the nat'l champ game and Boise meets the non-AQ auto-bid qualifier criteria, my understanding is that Boise would get an auto-bid as an at-large mandatory pick, and according to the kicker for this year, probably in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin / Mich St / tOSU
November 13th, 2010 at 10:37 PM ^
Yeah, that's also what my impression is. My question was more do you think that if TCU goes to the champ game, will Boise State get a bid?
Then I realized that it seems like it would be almost impossible for them not to get the #3 auto-bid. I guess the ONLY scenario I can think of for a non-AQ to go to the championship and the other one not go to a BCS bowl is the following:
Oregon wins out and is #1
Auburn (at 12-0) faces a 9-3 South Carolina team in the SEC championship game and loses by 1 point in an exciting game. (Maybe they lose on some terrible blown call by the refs)
Since Auburn already beat South Carolina, and the championship game was so close and exciting, they don't drop very far in the polls. Then the BCS standings are 1. Oregon, 2. TCU, 3. Auburn, 4. Boise State.
November 13th, 2010 at 11:08 PM ^
first off, do you think TCU will be ranked a head of boise come tomrrow? I doubt it. also, auburn is going to lose to bama in 2 weeks. and if somehow that doesn't happen and they lose to south carolina by 1 point i still really doubt that boise would be ranked behind them.
November 13th, 2010 at 11:27 PM ^
That's fine, switch TCU and Boise in the scenario (it doesn't matter to me what the order is). If TCU drops far enough because of today's escape then it makes that scenario more likely.
I don't think that Auburn will lose to Alabama. If they do, and then beat South Carolina by a lot in the SEC championship then maybe they would get pushed back up to #3 in the rankings.
I still don't think that it's likely this all would happen. It's just the ONLY scenario that has a remote chance of a non-AQ in the title game without the other non-AQ as the #3 auto-bid.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:35 PM ^
I haven't heard of any auto bid for a 2nd non AQ team.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:40 PM ^
There's not an auto-bid for a 2nd non-AQ team. There is an auto-bid for a #3/4 team that doesn't already have a BCS bid by winning an AQ conference.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:55 PM ^
Thanks. I wasn't aware of that.
November 13th, 2010 at 10:57 PM ^
Sorry, I wasn't clear. That rule only works once. So if the #3 team gets an auto-bid because of that rule, then it doesn't apply to the #4 team. If the #3 team already has a bid (i.e. won an AQ conference) then the #4 team gets an auto-bid if they aren't already an AQ conference champion.
So if TCU is #3 and Boise is #4 then TCU gets an auto-bid and Boise does not. People have different opinions, but WInEx and I both think that Boise would probably NOT get to a BCS bowl in that scenario.
November 14th, 2010 at 12:10 AM ^
I am thinking Boise could jump back ahead of TCU with the way ND took care of Utah and TCU struggled today early. Also, I know it shouldn't matter, but Boise beating TCU last year might influence some voters.
Edit: This point has already been made, but I didn't read further down...
November 14th, 2010 at 12:52 AM ^
That applies ONLY if the team that's #3 or #4 is in a BCS conference. (Why I have no idea, but the rule says "... and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings ..."; emphasis mine.)
November 13th, 2010 at 9:42 PM ^
I don't think both TCU and Boise State will get BCS invites. If Wisconsin and OSU both win out (let's hope not) then I think they both make it to the BCS over a second non-AQ team.
If MSU is the possible at-large team then there's a chance they take Boise State over MSU.
November 13th, 2010 at 11:03 PM ^
wisconsin just put up 83 points and its all over the college football news and osu is osu, they would be in before another pac 10 or big 12 team just because of who they are. I'd say 2 big 10 teams isnt a stretch
November 14th, 2010 at 12:31 AM ^
Stanford, god love them, aren't making a BCS bowl unless they qualify automatically. They're a small private school that isn't particularly a draw either on TV or in person. Who would you rather have? Them or Ohio State?
November 14th, 2010 at 9:23 AM ^
Stanford, Every Time.
November 14th, 2010 at 12:53 AM ^
1) It's not possible for a Big XII at-large contender to have only one loss (only two are left, and if they both win out they'll meet in the title game). An 11-1 Big Ten team will get the nod, period.
2) Big Ten fans travel better than Stanford.
3) Selection order works against Stanford this year. The Rose can't take them unless the title game is Oregon-TCU/Boise, the Fiesta gets last pick (aka whichever Big East team sucks slightly less than the rest), and the Orange and Sugar aren't likely to be thrilled with a West Coast team for travel purposes (particularly the Orange, and they get first pick).
November 14th, 2010 at 8:48 AM ^
I am hoping the Big Ten does not get the second BCS bid. It seems every time that has happened in the past the Big Ten does not do as well - everyone moves up one bowl to tougher overall competition. I'd rather see the league do well nationally.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:32 PM ^
assumed Penn St would be an 8-win team and us a 6-win team. Regardless, both teams at 7-5 in official standings will have PennSt ahead of us due to better conference record and head to head win. So a lot of the guys who were just slotting teams based on conference finish would have Penn St ahead of us, and us in the Insight Bowl. Remember though, that head to head results and conference records don't matter when it comes to bowl game selections.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:33 PM ^
Maybe people are more likely to want to watch Denard Robinson light things up in a bowl game than the walkon and the wounded of Penn State? I don't think it's unreasonable for Michigan to get a good bump because of the potential offensive fireworks and it being the first in 3 years. People were making a big deal about Notre Dame slithering into BCS bowls at 9-3 because even though they were terrible it's about the money and in this economy they can't afford to take chances with ticket sales and TV eyeballs.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:43 PM ^
Bowls like to see offense. A combination of Denard and our Defense (I know it has improved a bit, but taking off my Fan hat and putting on my "Outside Observer" hat) will be a recipe for a high-scoring ratings winner. Not to mention our fans will travel after our 2 year bowl hiatus.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:41 PM ^
...thanks for putting this together.
November 14th, 2010 at 12:13 AM ^
Nicely done, and very much appreciated. One closing comment...don't see NW beating IL at this point, but more to the point, all we need to do is keep on winning! For bowl positioning, for recruiting, for extra practice, for pride, for seniors, for.......
November 13th, 2010 at 9:44 PM ^
November 13th, 2010 at 9:47 PM ^
... and think how great it is that we aren't arguing on if Michigan will manage to scrape together a bowl game, but whether they will be able to get a New Year's Day bowl game. It was nice to think about in theory back in August, but this team has overcome all kinds of obstacles to get themselves in this position. I love that we are actually at the point where we are having this discussion at all.
November 14th, 2010 at 12:00 AM ^
Amen, brother.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:54 PM ^
Please God, don't make Michigan play Arkansas in a bowl game. Mallett would be the second coming of Chappel-bombing and would be worse than the first go around.
November 13th, 2010 at 9:57 PM ^
Amazing considering where the MGoCommune was two weeks ago.
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