national champs baby
Post Week 5: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor
Okay, just a quick recap of the week that just passed. My predictor indicated UM would gain 522 yards of total offense. The offense gained 574 yards of offense, nearly 11% better than the predictor. The IU defense was predicted to gain 415 yards of total offense. They gained 568 yards, netting the UM defense at 136% of their projected output. Statistically, this wasn't their worst day (ND @ 144%), but it was still bad enough. Before the Indiana game, UMs defense was keeping teams to 99.34% of their normal yards on the season. That number is a fairly decent one. It took a huge hit this week and currently sits at 111.85%
On the brightside, UM's offense got better. Before the IU game, they were sitting at 154% total offense compared to what their opponents' defenses were giving up. With 574 yards of total offense, at 169% of IU's norm, the season average gained just over 6%. This margin kept UM above their opponents (MSU, Iowa) in the predictor. UM was also able to knock 12 yards off OSU's "lead" in their predictor.
The numbers.....
As you can see above, I added the next metric into the equation: a scoring predictor. I've calculated two scores based on differing material. The hybrid yards/point includes all of 2009 and the completed games of 2010. One thing to note in the comparison between 2009 and 2010 for MSU is that their offense is scoring more frequently than last year. On the flip side, despite UM gaining a ton more yardage this year, they are actually scoring at a slower pace than 2009. Well, does this mean UMs offense is less explosive and MSUs offense is more explosive than they were a year ago? Probably not. In 2009, UM was one of the top 10 team in net punting. This enabled UM to have better starting position on each drive. Makes sense. UM 2010 has had pretty bad field position for most of the year. The positive with this is that if the defense can improve and got off the field without giving up field position, the offensive numbers could skyrocket.
My prediction based on limited stats and the hope that UMs defense shows up this week:
UM 42
MSU 38
Interesting rank metric of teams UM will play/have played:
October 4th, 2010 at 2:36 PM | 
Prediction
Prediction
October 4th, 2010 at 3:08 PM |
Srsly?
Srsly?
MSU has scored a ton of points this year. UM's D doesn't show up, MSU scores over 50 probably. Something in the 7 points/drive range.
Wasting away in Ohio, a Wolverine in a sea of red and grey
October 4th, 2010 at 8:36 PM |
MSU has scored 38, 30, 34 (28
MSU has scored 38, 30, 34 (28
MSU has scored 38, 30, 34 (28 in regulation), 45 and 34 (27 on offense) in its five games. Not bad, but maybe not the juggernaut you're making them out to be. The 45-point outburst came against a horrendous I-AA team.
October 4th, 2010 at 3:36 PM |
Really they only have to show
Really they only have to show
Really they only have to show up as much as they have all year since that is what his predictor is based on. So maybe if they actually, you know, have a great game we could hold them to less than 38?
I rely 100% on experience facts.
October 4th, 2010 at 8:38 PM |
If they show up at 100%, then
If they show up at 100%, then
If they show up at 100%, then okay. I'd prefer to see them limit msu's offense to 85-90% though.If that happens, we're talking about a 10 point win or so.
October 4th, 2010 at 9:54 PM |
You do realize that opposing
You do realize that opposing
You do realize that opposing offenses are putting up better than their average performances against our defense, right? To expect our defense to actually limit a team to 80-90% of their average offensive output would require a miracle. If we can "limit" MSU to their average, I would be incredibly happy.
October 4th, 2010 at 11:32 PM |
UM has held 3 of their 5
UM has held 3 of their 5
UM has held 3 of their 5 opponents under their average.
The UM defense has had two terrible games (ND, IU) that have skewed the percentage way up.
October 5th, 2010 at 12:38 AM |
Touché
Touché
However, of those teams that we held below their averages, which ones were statistically significant?
2% (UMASS) and 6% (BGSU) below average do not strike me as significant (by eyeball test, no statistics). Those teams are certainly much lower caliber than UCONN and as such I would have expected defensive performance better than ours against UCONN.
Furthermore, was it our defense or UCONN's lack of execution that led to the 14% below average performance? As for BGSU, they were starting a QB with minimal experience, so was it us or them again?
When we have yielded above average numbers, they are to an extreme ... 44 and 36%
I like what you are doing with the data and I know it sounds like I'm just spewing but, but, but excuses... however if you look at the raw numbers in context, I don't know that you can predict our defense to hold MSU to 85-90% particularly when they have only done that to 1 out of 5 opponents this season.
This begs the question, which defense are we going to see come Saturday?
October 5th, 2010 at 6:10 PM |
Fair enough. It was more
Fair enough. It was more
Fair enough. It was more wishful thinking about the 85-90% thing.
October 4th, 2010 at 2:56 PM |
Two keys to winning
Two keys to winning
Offense:
1) Get Molk/Omameh out on the LBs
2) Vary the snap count to keep the DL honest
Defense:
1) Have to rush 4 and up it to 5 time to time
2) Need to shave a couple yards off the coverage cushion, consistently giving teams 2nd and 3 is not going to cut it against more well rounded teams that can also run.
Has the whole world gone CRAZY!?!
October 4th, 2010 at 3:02 PM |
I'm pretty sure that they
I'm pretty sure that they
I'm pretty sure that they don't watch/listen to the snap count. Molk puts his head up right before he snaps the ball. They only way that I see to fake the snap count is for him to put his head up, put it back down, then back up again when he snaps it. I don't know if that counts as a false start though.
October 4th, 2010 at 3:00 PM |
Looks like
Looks like
A lot of close games
October 4th, 2010 at 3:13 PM |
I think what's most striking
I think what's most striking
I think what's most striking about your numbers are how few teams it thinks can slow us down. Only OSU holding us under 400 yards?!? Surprised by Purdue's numbers too.
October 4th, 2010 at 3:41 PM |
I don't think Purdue's #'s
I don't think Purdue's #'s
I don't think Purdue's #'s are correct. Looks like the BYE went in as something <0 when calculating their avg/gm. They're giving up 349 yds/gm to mere mortals. Denard and Friends would be predicted to put up 560 yards on them if I'm reading this correctly.
I love a hoppy ending!
October 4th, 2010 at 8:40 PM |
Yeah, the "BYE" was messing
Yeah, the "BYE" was messing
Yeah, the "BYE" was messing with the calculations. The table is corrected now. Thanks for seeing that.
October 4th, 2010 at 5:06 PM |
UM 42 - MSU 38.........I'LL
UM 42 - MSU 38.........I'LL
UM 42 - MSU 38.........I'LL TAKE IT NO MATTER HOW IT HAPPENS!
Vinnie_in_TX
October 4th, 2010 at 10:56 PM |
Nice job
Nice job
It's cool to see that you added the scoring predictor, and also that Michigan is going to win 41.85 to 36.92.
"You will suffer humiliation when the team from my area defeats the team from your area." -- The Onion
October 4th, 2010 at 11:22 PM |
Hope is not a strategy.
Hope is not a strategy.
Michigan will need to score a lot, and quickly.
Michigan needs to have 12 offensive drives minimum, and probably 13, to win, barring turnovers.
Keep in mind that MSU is -1 net turnover margin against FBS opponents, and beat Wisconsin by 10 in spite of a -3 TO margin.
A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com
October 4th, 2010 at 11:48 PM |
You guys also got a highly
You guys also got a highly
You guys also got a highly irreproduceable TD on a punt return. Getting a TD on special teams has to be worth a couple of turnovers.
October 5th, 2010 at 1:41 AM |
That's a good point
That's a good point
I don't know what a special teams TD should be worth in terms of turnovers. I like your suggestion of something more than 1 turnover in value.
However, that punt return TD did not make the difference between win and loss, just the margin of victory.
A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com
October 5th, 2010 at 12:50 AM |
First road game of the season
First road game of the season
First road game of the season for MSU, FWIW.
"That's some catch, that Catch-22," he observed.
"It's the best there is," Doc Daneeka agreed.
October 5th, 2010 at 1:37 AM |
Technically second.
Technically second.
Remember, FAU was the "home" team, also FWIW.
A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com
October 5th, 2010 at 7:20 AM |
Remember, FAU flew in from
Remember, FAU flew in from
Remember, FAU flew in from Florida. Sparty bussed in from East Lansing. It wasn't an away game.
"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
October 5th, 2010 at 7:44 AM |
Right.
Right.
Hence the "air quotes" around "home".
A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com
October 5th, 2010 at 4:16 PM |
(No subject)
(No subject)
October 5th, 2010 at 12:13 AM |
I like this a lot...
I like this a lot...
I was thinking of trying to transcend my hatred for crunching numbers and doing something similar to this myself. Now I don't have to. Thanks.
October 5th, 2010 at 12:14 AM |
nice work
nice work
I hope your prediction is correct.
http://twitter.com/#!/JHScramble
October 5th, 2010 at 12:54 AM |
Home vs. Away
Home vs. Away
We have held teams below their average when we are at home and have had our two bad games on the road. We play state at home!
JACK1968
October 5th, 2010 at 3:21 AM |
Great Work
Great Work
This is such great work...thanks for investing all the time into it.
October 5th, 2010 at 8:49 AM |
Nicely done
Nicely done
Thanks for the hard work, but I must wonder....you're system ranks UMass as #1 offense and #3 defense that we will face this year???? Tied with OSU at 4 total points?
October 5th, 2010 at 6:13 PM |
This is just based on pure
This is just based on pure
This is just based on pure yardage, so you have to think of the competition as well. I guess the next step in my predictions is to calculate all scoring percentages, but that is a lot more data to copy down. Yards per point may give a more meaningful look into who a team really is.
"My prediction based on limited stats and the hope that UMs defense shows up this week:"
If i you are predcting that MSU gets 38 based on the hope that our defense shows up what you be predicting without that hope?