Is our O-Line really that young?
I am going through the seven stages of grief after DEBACLE (not that DEBACLE). I am somewhere between the stage three and four and trying real hard to make sense of it all.
One of the common excuse for our poor performance has been that our offensive line is so young that we should have expected (historically) bad performance out of them.
But is our offensive line REALLY that young? I have yet to see anyone quantify exactly how young our offensive line is compared to other top programs. So, I figured I'd do it myself, thinking that it will help me through my grieving process...
It just ended up making it worse.
I looked at the offensive line depth (from Rival) of every team in AP Top 25 and noted how young/old they are. I then assigned point values - one for frosh, 1.5 for redshirt frosh, 2 for sophomore, 2.5 for redshirt sophomore, and so on. Using this method, Michigan boasts an average line experience of 2.8. How does that compare to other schools?
Here is the complete list of Top 25 schools with 3 or less experience value.
Team | Position | Name | Year | Value | Average Exp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | OT | Taylor Lewan | RSR | 4.5 | 2.8 |
Michigan | OT | Michael Schofield | RSR | 4.5 | |
Michigan | OG | Kyle Kalis | RFR | 1.5 | |
Michigan | OG | Kyle Bosch | FR | 1 | |
Michigan | C | Graham Glasgow | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OT | Andrus Peat | RFR | 1.5 | 2.7 |
Stanford | OT | Cameron Fleming | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OG | David Yankey | RSO | 2.5 | |
Stanford | OG | Kevin Danser | RJR | 3.5 | |
Stanford | C | Khalil Wilkes | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OT | Spencer Drango | RFR | 1.5 | 2.7 |
Baylor | OT | Kevin Palmer | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OG | Cyril Richardson | RJR | 3.5 | |
Baylor | OG | Desmine Hilliard | RFR | 1.5 | |
Baylor | C | Stefan Huber | RJR | 3.5 | |
Clemson | OT | Brandon Thomas | RJR | 3.5 | 2.7 |
Clemson | OT | Gifford Timothy | RSO | 2.5 | |
Clemson | OG | David Beasley | RSO | 2.5 | |
Clemson | OG | Tyler Shatley | RJR | 3.5 | |
Clemson | C | Ryan Norton | RFR | 1.5 | |
Auburn | OT | Greg Robinson | SO | 2 | 2.3 |
Auburn | OT | Patrick Miller | SO | 2 | |
Auburn | OG | Alex Kozan | RFR | 1.5 | |
Auburn | OG | Chad Slade | JR | 3 | |
Auburn | C | Reese Dismukes | JR | 3 | |
SC | OT | Corey Robinson | RJR | 3.5 | 3 |
SC | OT | Brandon Shell | RSO | 2.5 | |
SC | OG | AJ Cann | RJR | 3.5 | |
SC | OG | Ronald Patrick | SR | 4 | |
SC | C | Cody Waldrop | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OT | La'el Collins | RSO | 2.5 | 2.3 |
LSU | OT | Jerald Hawkins | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OG | Vadal Alexander | RFR | 1.5 | |
LSU | OG | Trai Turner | RSO | 2.5 | |
LSU | C | Elliott Porter | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OT | Jake Matthews | JR | 3 | 2.7 |
Texas A&M | OT | Cedric Ogbuehi | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OG | Jarvis Harrison | RJR | 3.5 | |
Texas A&M | OG | Germain Ifedi | RFR | 1.5 | |
Texas A&M | C | Mike Matthews | SO | 2 | |
UCLA | OT | Simon Goines | SO | 2 | 1.9 |
UCLA | OT | Caleb Benenoch | FR | 1 | |
UCLA | OG | Xavier Su'a-Filo | JR | 3 | |
UCLA | OG | Alex Redmond | FR | 1 | |
UCLA | C | Jake Brendel | RSO | 2.5 | |
ND | OT | Zack Martin | RSR | 4.5 | 3 |
ND | OT | Ronnie Stanley | SO | 2 | |
ND | OG | Chris Watt | RSR | 4.5 | |
ND | OG | Steve Elmer | FR | 1 | |
ND | C | Nick Martin | JR | 3 |
As you can see above, there are 9 teams in top 25 with 3 years or less average experience. A few, including LSU and UCLA have offensive line that is SIGNIFICANTLY younger than Michigan. Amazingly, even with those very young offensive line with freshmen and sophomores, they have managed not to have historically bad offenses with competent rushing attack.
Based on this data, I think blaming our offensive line woes just on experience is not correct. It does not help, but lack of experience does not automatically mean that they will bad. When you have two NFL tackles, you should be able to perform at least average, if not better.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:22 AM ^
I like this idea of quantifying the experience of Michigan's O-line. However, I think a better measure of experience than thier class would be the number of games started at their current position, or if you really want to get in the weeds, the number of minutes played at thier position. Such metrics would lower the contribution of Kalis, Bosch. and Glasgow.
I've had this feeling that if Michigan came out of Summer camp with the current starting o-line and stuck with it they would be playing significantly better by now.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:28 AM ^
Has to account for both. In 2012, Michigan had players that didn't have much experience playing. But they did have experience in overall years. Thus, you get things where they can do their assignments well (pass pro), but they aren't very effective actually establishing push and things of that nature.
What it really comes down to is that is very, very difficult to qualify inexperience. Really, you can only qualify experience, as in, more experience than others. Certainly there are ways to twist this data to an agenda either way, and both have a level of reality to them. But, do you take the mean average, median average? Do you account for the fact that most players make the most significant jump after their first full season playing? Is it a linear scale, or does it sort of flatten out at the top? There's no good way to qualify it, without it being highly subjective. The goal is to minimize how much subjectiveness you put in the analysis, but by doing so, you are also limiting how much truth can be found in the analysis.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:59 AM ^
You make an excellent point, as usual. I think the only thing we can qualitatively say about the players on the interior of the offensive line this season is that they aren't ready, for whatever reason. I, for one, was hoping out of all the guys we had brought in the past couple of seasons, we might find one or two where the light would go on, but alas, is hasn't happened. Regretably, we have no choice but to muddle through the best we can. Optimistically, this groups baptism by fire this season may pay big dividends in the future.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:25 AM ^
Methodological issues are one thing, but there also seems to be a problem with the data. Stanford was mentioned above. Moving on to the next team, Baylor, and using the roster and bio information at the Baylor website:
- Spencer Drango is a redshirt sophomore, not a redshirt freshman
- Cyril Richardson is a fifth year senior, not a redshirt junior
- Stefan Huber is a fifth-year senior, not a redshirt juniot
- Desmine Hilliard is a redshirt sophomore, not a redshirt freshman
- Klevin Palmer is a fifth-year senior, not a redshirt junior
That's five for five. I'm not sure I want to spend my day checking everyone on your list, but I think you might want to rethink your data source, use the teams' own websites instead of Rivals.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^
We've already established two of the teams are significantly wrong. Whatever substance can be taken from this (as I've pointed out, I believe it to be minimal regardless) can pretty much be neglected if it can be theorized that with 2 of the teams being significantly wrong, that some/most of the other teams are as well.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:24 AM ^
I spent extra time with the two youngest lines - LSU and UCLA. They are both extremely young and they are outperforming our line.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 11:04 AM ^
UCLA doesn't; they're in even worse shape than Michigan is. It's first and second-year guys all over the two-deep.
They're the only one I can find, though.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:20 AM ^
The LSU data is better than the others I've checked. Collins is a JR and not a RS SO, Alexander started nine games last year when the starter got hurt; he's an experienced SO and not a RS FR.
I'm wondering if it's really true that these lines are outperforming Michigan's so I checked the offensive FEI's:
- LSU .729
- Michigan .164
- UCLA .158
UCLA hasn't had to play an MSU so they haven't been exposed so badly, but from what I've seen they aren't a good line. They've got a premier QB prospect scrambling for his life.
LSU's a different story.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:38 AM ^
Maybe there's just a problem with the Baylor data at Rivals so let's move to the next school on the list. At clemsontigers.com we find the following:
- Brandon Thomas is a fifh-year senior
- David Beasley is a red shirt junior
- Ryan Norton is a red shirt sophomore
- Tyler Shatley is a fifth-year
- Gifford Timothy is a red shirt junior
That's ten players I've checked at random and every single one has been off by a year. If you only have accurate data for Michigan and you have add a year to everyone else on the list, it changes your conclusion a bit, doesn't it?
Wasn't it a bit suspicious that there weren't any fifth-years playing anywhere else? (Looks like Rivals has good data on Notre Dame, though.)
November 5th, 2013 at 10:01 AM ^
Greg Robinson - RS So
Patrick Miller - So
Alex Kozan - RS FR
Chad Slade - RS JR
Reese Dismukes - JR
So missing two redshirts there as well. I don't think a lot of this data labels RS, they just have eligibility (besides RS FR)
It does appear that some of them look correct, because they have RS listed, but other teams don't. As stated, Rivals probably has a mix of listing players by actual year or by eligibility.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:26 AM ^
I noticed that early on, so I went and looked up high school graduation year on many of them. I gave redshirt when Rivals did not indicate it.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:40 AM ^
Everyone I checked (Baylor, Clemson) had the HS graduation date wrong. And there wasn't any doubt about it, because the schools' websites included items like
2011 (True Freshman): Dressed for three games but did not see any game action... Redshirted to retain eligibility... Earned spring 2012 Dean's List honors... Named to Big 12 Commissioner's Honor Roll in fall 2011 and spring 2012.
That's Spencer Drango. Unless they made all that up (and falsified his high school information too), he's in his third year in the program, not his second.
The same's true for everyone I checked. I don't know how to put this diplomatically: your data is a disaster, the errors are systematically all in the same direction, and your conclusions result from the systematic errors.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:19 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 10:11 AM ^
Look, I started with Rivals depth chart (http://baylor.rivalas.com/cdepthtext.asp), and I looked up each player to see when the graduated. If there are better sources, I will be happy to use them.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:52 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^
http://www.baylorbears.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/bay-m-footbl-mtt.html
Click on the player's name to get his biographical information--it'll be clear what year he is in the program.
There's something similar for every FBS school in the country and they aren't hard to find. You'll find current depth charts there, too--I don't see much problem with rivals there but if there's ever a doubt I'd go with the one the school issues with its weekly game notes.
Look, I think the idea of the post was great--I'd been thinking of doing something similar but hadn't found the time. It's a lot of work, though, to do it right, because there's no trustworthy central repository for this stuff.
November 5th, 2013 at 9:59 AM ^
Mean is nice, but our mean is thrown off by the very impressive tackles. Teams can negate that by bringing pressure up the middle, and attacking the very, very soft underbelly. Having an interior line of nothing but inexperience is somewhat masked by having Lewan and Schofield bring up the average.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:08 AM ^
But I think you also have to consider the different lineups Michigan has put out there. Switching positions, switching players, practicing different schemes, etc is also a big part of the problem. Those things only escalate with the youth.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:20 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 11:33 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 3:14 PM ^
The problem is that this assumes that all upperclassmen are able to be made into strong players. Plenty of players turn out to be busts. When you only have two guys to choose from, I don't like those odds.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:41 PM ^
As reader 71 touched on, Bryant has been injury prone. Missing a full year of practice due to the knee injury is huge. He might be a 3rd year player but he's only practiced 2 years. In addition, they held him out of one of the scrimmages in fall camp due to an injury and others have speculated that he might not have been 100% during the PSU game. There's a reason teams try to take about 4 olinemen every year in recruiting. If you can get one out of those 4 to be darn good player, you're going to have a pretty good oline. Some won't pan out. Some might struggle with injuries.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^
I know it's a pain in the ass, but as others have pointed out, this diary is based on a LOT of factual errors. You should probably go back and adjust everything in the chart see if that leads you to draw new conclusions.
I'd also suggest, as I think others have, that you think not only about mean years but where those years are distributed and how it relates to the plays run. We have good tackles. That's kind of well-known, isn't it? The problem isn't our O-line, it's that our interior O-line is terrible. This year we've tried to play:
1. An undersized first year starter at center (MIller)
2. A walkon first year starter (Glasgow)
3. A redshirt-freshman first year starter (Kalis)
4. An undersized redshirt-freshman first year starter at a position he's never played (Magnuson)
5. A perennially injured first year starter (Bryant)
6. Another walkon first year starer (Burzynski)
7. An undersized true freshman starter (Bosch)
By my estimation, up to now Glasgow has performed beyond expectations and Kalis has failed to meet expectations. Everyone else has played about as expected by their combination of age, size, talent-level and experience.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:05 AM ^
Agreed, youth certainly hurts us, but there's no reason our line shouldn't be able to push around a MAC (Akron) defensive line or Connecticut-level line. It has been mentioned before but looking at aggregate youth might be erroneous. For example, our entire interior line is young.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:19 AM ^
It is one thing if talented underclassman beat out multiple more experienced players for a starting position. Michigan has three young guys right next to each other on the interior that are pretty much playing their by default.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:24 AM ^
If you really want to put it in perspective, you should actually use the top programs like you said you did. Include Alabama, Oregon, Florida St and (ugh) Ohio. You include Stanford and Stanford lost to Utah(!). That is a PSU level loss for them. They will also get smoked by Oregon.
I did the same analysis you did, I also looked at the 97 Oline and there is more experience there plus you're not looking at a walkon in those positions.
I don't have time now but I will update with more data.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^
"Here is the complete list of Top 25 schools with 3 or less experience value."
November 5th, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^
...of a functioning program. Their depth chart for Oregon is:
first team: three fifth years, one fourth year, one second year (Andrus Peat)
second team: two fourth years, two third years, one second year (Kyle Murphy)
They have a couple of five-star second year players on the two deep, but they had to beat our upperclassmen to get there.. They also have six other three- and four-star recruits in their second or third years that aren't on the depth chart at all yet. I count 17 scholarship offensive linemen on the roster, not counting the two true freshmen. That's four per year after attrition.
For a while there we averaged signing two per year and what we had after attrition was dealt with above. I don't know how anyone thinks you could run a program that way and not end up with a tire fire. You can run a scheme that de-emphasizes offensive line play (like Leach, maybe, or current Indiana) but the rules say you have to have five of them on the field.
You can lament the fact that we had one or two guys that haven't worked out yet for whatever reason, but that's always going to happen. You have 17 on your active roster, you can find at least five that can play.
November 5th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^
is on the top 25? We are nowhere near the top 25 with respect to the thing we are trying to measure - OL performance. There's not a perfect way to measure OL performance, but I guess I'd start by looking at sacks, TFLs, RB YPC and overall rushing performance. If we could somehow come up with an average based on this, I think we'd be lucky to crack the top 80-100. The proper analysis would then be to analyze the experience of the OL for those doing better than us (probably just about everyone) and see how far off the mark we are.
I'm not suggesting anyone should actually do this work because it seems like it would take forever, but it would be interesting to see.
November 5th, 2013 at 4:27 PM ^
1. Averaging isn't the metric I would use. You don't put 5 guys in a blender and pore the puree into molds to make 5 identical guys. OL is a weakest link scenario, so it should really be number of freshman or first year starters.
2. Even if you averaged, there should be a pretty significant leap from FR to RS FR, slightly smaller from RS FR to RS SO, etc where RS JR and RS SR are pretty close. In other words the learning curve for OL is steep at first and tapers off.
That said, youth doesn't look to be the only issue with our line. I don't have any insider info, but Funk hasn't really shown much of anything as far as developing players, and the sample size is getting pretty large.
EDIT: 3. I would also argue you need to look at a larger sample size and look at the correlation between age/experience and success. Just examining the top programs is kind of like saying some of the forbes richest list never graduated HS and drawing the conclusion that not having a diploma is irrelevant to success.
November 5th, 2013 at 7:52 PM ^
Reader71 had an interesting post a few days ago about this. If I understood him right, the big leap is from RS FR to RS SO. During the redshirt year all you really get to do is put on weight and build strength, and look at film. There's no spring practice obviously because you were still in HS, and during the season your practice snaps are on the scout team running somebody else's offense. You don't get muich coaching and you don't get to start working on how your own offense works until that second year; once you get that started the learning curve begins in earnest.
November 7th, 2013 at 5:04 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 3:57 PM ^
Looking up offensive FEI rankings for Michigan over the life of the footballoutsiders database:
- 2007: 56th
- 2008: 81st
- 2009: 66th
- 2010: 2nd
- 2011: 9th
- 2012: 25th
- 2013: 43rd
I wish we had these going back--I'd be really interested to know where the 1997 offense would have ranked.
Anyway...somehow, despite the worst offensive lne performance I can remember at Michigan (maybe you have to go back to the Ford era, and I don't mean his presidency), the offense has managed to be above average, better than Carr's last team or Rodriguez's first two, certainly not "historically bad" by any means. Not good, but not anywhere close to the worst.
Why is that? Excellent play from other positions: QB, WR, TE? Good scheming by the OC?
You'd never guess it was true, from the commentary here.
November 5th, 2013 at 3:19 PM ^
I'm thinking of Barrett Jones here - dude was switched from right guard to left tackle to center because of team needs. If the interior of the line is what truly makes the difference, then I wonder how the line would have looked if Lewan and Schofield were moved inside to center and guard. It's obviously too late in the season to try it now, of course.
November 5th, 2013 at 4:19 PM ^
I think looking at it this way betrays the depth chart. Regarding eligibility, Michigan's OL depth chart is constituted thusly:
10 freshmen
3 sophomores
1 junior
2 seniors
I understand that absence of proof is not proof of absence but I seriously doubt there is a team in the nation for whom less than 18.125% of their OL depth chart is built of upperclassmen and I defy someone to prove otherwise.
November 5th, 2013 at 4:54 PM ^
So basically, you're saying "Michigan has experienced tackles." Yes we do, but we're extremely young in the interior, which is where our problems lie. Lewan and Schofield aren't the problem.
November 5th, 2013 at 6:07 PM ^
Thank you. Anyone using the youth excuse is delusional and clearly doesn't watch college ball. At all.
November 5th, 2013 at 7:49 PM ^
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