Opposite Problems

Submitted by Ron Utah on

Deja Vu

Consistency.  It may the most talked about word in Michigan football right now.  It's what Coach Hoke says is holding us back.  It's what Coach Nussmeier says is holding us back.  It's what the players say is holding us back.

They're not wrong.  While many here on the board (myself included) may have underrated both Notre Dame and Utah, it's clear that we also overrated Michigan.  Once again, we find our offense is unable to do anything against a good-but-not-great opponent.

In 2014, Michigan is currently ranked #94 in scoring offense.  This figure is glaring not only in its ineptitude, but also because we have already faced the two worst defenses we'll see all season in App. State and Miami (NTM).  We are 97th in TFLs allowed.  We are #128--dead last--in turnover margin.  Yes, Notre Dame and Utah are pretty good, but App. State and Miami (NTM) are terrible.

There is a glaringly bright side: Michigan's defense is #8 in the country.  It appears that while our CBs aren't the lockdown, interception-machines we hoped for, they are at least adequate and are paired with a run defense that is absurdly good.  Lewis and Peppers look to be capabe and constantly improving.  That said, in the red zone against Notre Dame, Utah, and even ASU and NTM, TDs came far too easily.  It's a very, very good defense.  Good enough to win a B1G championship.  It's not yet an elite defense that can cover for its offense's sins.

What's so awful about this state of affairs is that we were just here.

In 2010, Michigan finished the season ranked 107th in the country in scoring defense.  We were 93rd in sacks and #109 in turnover margin.  The level of incompetence of that defense is an almost perfect match for the 2014 offense.  While we could argue all day about whether or not the 2010 offense was as good as our 2014 defense is, the point is that both units were very good, but not elite enough to paper over the struggles of their counterparts.

The opposite comparisons don't stop there.  Rich Rod was famous for his stubborn adherence to a set of defensive principles that didn't seem to fit his players or his matchups.  Brady Hoke continues to run under-center play action passes despite his O-line's inability to block the plays, even against high-pressure, blitzing opponents like Utah.  Rich Rod was a revolutionary, schematic genius on offense, Hoke is a players' coach that understands old-school, championship defense.  Rich Rod was almost buttery soft--crying in press conferences and summoning Josh Groban as a motivational tool; Hoke is all about MANBALL and "physicalness" or "physicality" or whatever.  Rich Rod seemed oblivious to Michigan's past, Hoke seems firmly cemented to the 1990s in virtually every way.  Rich Rod's teams improved a bit each year, Hoke's seem to take a step back each season.

I could go on, but the point is clear: Hoke, in coaching terms, is almost the perfect opposite of Rich Rodriguez.

I have not given up hope that this offense can turn it around and be good enough to allow this defense the chance to win a B1G Championship.  I will root as hard as I can for Michigan on every down of every game we have left on the schedule.  But I feel like I've seen this movie before--or rather, I've seen the opposite of this movie before--and it's hard not to feel like I already know the ending.

The only question that remains is one of consistency: will Dave Brandon judge Brady Hoke's incomptence the same way he judged Rich Rod's?  Because if this season finishes it appears it is destined to do, the only logical conclusion is another "process" from the AD...or perhaps another "process" for an AD.

Comments

WolverBean

September 22nd, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^

One important difference between the 2010 defense and 2014 offense:

The 2010 defense was bad in the same ways as the 2009 defense (worse, in fact), and for the same reasons. The same coordinator was in charge both years, and halfway through the 2010 season, there was no reason to believe that the defense might be any better by season's end.

The 2014 offense is bad in different ways than the 2013 offense, and at least partly for different reasons. A different coordinator is charge this year than last year, and there is at least some reason to believe the offense will be better at the end of the year than it is today.

It remains to be seen, of course, whether the offense will in fact improve as the season goes on. But on paper at least, Nussmeier has a better resume than GRob did, and has a lot more leeway to run what he knows than GRob had under RichRod. This season is a major disappointment so far, but all hope is not yet lost.

bleu

September 22nd, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^

It would be consistency or execution if the plan was solid. But the offense and punt coverage is disadvantaged by the planning. It's the equivalent of a basketball offense centered around half courters and then citing consistency as the reason for only hitting 20% of the shots.

ThoseWhoStayUofM

September 22nd, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^

"How many people were clamoring for the exact opposite of Rich Rod?  Well they got their wish."

Quoted for emphasis.  The biggest difference between Brady Hoke and Rich Rod is that, when Rich Rod saw the writing on the wall, he sang Josh Groban music.  I don't expect Brady Hoke to go so gently into that good night... hopefully.

And of course, Brady Hoke isn't leaving the next guy with shit for players.  Brady Hoke, unlike Rich Rod, understands the importance of recruiting and does a damn good job of doing it.  I think this team will be very good next year, regardless of who the coach happens to be, solely for that reason.

MCalibur

September 23rd, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^

I know what you mean and I agree from a long term perspective. However in the short term, the 2010 squad did not get *dominated* by mediocre teams like this team has so far this year. The defense was putrid but at least the team had a chance to win games against teams that were on their level (Iowa and Penn State). Against the good teams (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State) yeah it got ugly...do you personally expect a different experience this year? I can't at this point. I'll hope my ass off but that hasn’t been working, Holmes. The saying goes that offense wins games but defense wins championships…we need to win some daggum games, G.

The fact that Brady has assembled high level talent and we're getting embarrassed anyway is a liability rather than an asset at this point. The "youth" line bought him a fourth year, he's out of sand. We should be better than this.

Also, one thing Brady has enjoyed that RichRod didn’t was $1.5M to spend on coordinators. History would be very different if RR had been afforded that same support. Regardless, he failed and was rightfully ejected. But, let’s not act like the program isn’t on fire. If you prefer the hue of these flames over the hue of those, then that’s your prerogative. As for me, I’m sick of melting.

reshp1

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^

I feel significantly less hopeful right now unfortunately.

Last year, it felt like our problems were very tangible and fixable. The OL was young and needed experience. The OC couldn't take advantage of opposing weakness nor would he account for our own weaknesses.

Both should have been mitigated. Yes I know OT is in the same position, but the interior isn't exactly lighting it up. As far as OCs go, it seemed like Nuss is as much a slam dunk as there is in coaching.

Neither seemed to make much difference and this offense seems frustratingly familiar and making frustratingly famliar mistakes and even adding some new ones. Coupled with the uncertainty at the end of the year should Hoke be canned, I just have a very very bad feeling about what this program will look like for the forseeable future. I am at heart an optimist when it comes to Michigan football, but I have to admit, I'm finding it hard to see things to hitch whatever optimism I have left to.

Yeoman

September 22nd, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^

Alabama's been a top-ten offense since Saban got there (OK, it took a year). Their oFEI was #5, #3, #11 in the three years before Nussmeier, #5 and #9 under him. Schedule-adjusted numbers aren't out yet this year but they're #2 in the raw number.

He did a good job there but there wasn't anything to turn around.

GoBLUinTX

September 23rd, 2014 at 12:03 AM ^

But what is it with this particular excuse?  Did the vast masses that wanted Al Borges fired really believe that his replacement would mean two embarassing games in the month of September?  Not from what I recall.  What I recall is that Nussmeier was a QB guru and an offensive genious that would turn around the Michigan offense.  Then, with righteous indignation we had evidence absolute that Al Borges was indeed a bum and that The Nuss would put everything right.  What was that evidence....surely you haven't forgotten.  We found out that Gardner could finally point out the Mike.  And all was good in the world, we were saved.  All Praise the Nuss.

 

uminks

September 23rd, 2014 at 2:31 AM ^

That we are going to be a good team in a few more years. Hoke may not be the right coach but he has done well recruiting and filling depth. Player retention is much higher than under RR.  A good new coach would have no problems turning this team into winners!  Lack of player development is always based on the lack of good coaching. A good coach arriving will allow the the potential talent to be coached up to actual on the field talent. If Hoke does fail, I think he was a good stop gap coach to keep recruiting up and building depth for years to come. It's to bad he did not work out. I really liked his enthusiasm for Michigan but as they say even good guys can finish last.

Hail-Storm

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^

I've found it strange that Michigan seemed to be under center the entire game.  Gardner has shown he can play, however, he seems to have regressed a lot.  I wonder how much of it is just him not comfortable playing under center. When he is under center, he turns his head away from the defense and rarely does he face forward, identify what the defense now looks like, and takes a look anywhere but his primary reciever.

When he has played in a shotgun, he seems a lot more sure of himself and appears to make both better throws and better (more?) reads for his recievers.  Personally I'd prefer to go right to a shotgun.  run jet sweeps with Norfleet, draws with Hayes (who has made some excellent blocks), dump offs to Butt, and downfield throws to Funchess and Chesson, or even a wheel route to Hayes or Norfleet.  Add in the occasional QB draw or zone read, and that is a lot for a defense to handle, plus our QB feels comfortable in this offense.

I am all for head coaches believing in their overall strategies, but it is frustrating to watch two coaches fail due to stubborness.

alum96

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^

"I have not given up hope that this offense can turn it around and be good enough to allow this defense the chance to win a B1G Championship." 

Ron!! Oh Ron. 

Enjoy your posts as always but this little hope in your soul will be crushed soon enough ;)  This offense is somehow worse than last year's despite a relatively better run game and OL than last year - which is amazing.

I think we have a good defense that will finish top 20 when all said and done but the stats are lying a bit for all Big 10 teams who play a lot of bad MAC teams non conf and then each other.  We had 3 of the top 7 defenses in 2013 in the conf.  We currently have 5 of the top 14.  No one believes Big 10 defenses are that elite - we just play a lot of bad offenses in the Midwest in conference and outside of conference.   This pads out statrs.  Just like Pac 12 teams dont play much defense at all and their offensive stats are padded.  We're the inverse here in the Big 10.

So let's take it all with some grains of salt, I will write up a piece on this tomorrow perhaps.

Ron Utah

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:55 PM ^

Thanks, I am glad you enjoy the content.

Hope is all I have.  Nussmeier is an accomplished coach and he has some talent to work with.  Next week we shouldn't have to score too many points to win.  But if we don't improve quite a bit before Rutgers, it could get pretty ugly.

I think MSU's defense is considered (or was the last few years) to be nationally elite.  But I agree--our crappy conference skews the truth.  All the more reason our offense should be able to move the ball...hope is all I have.

alum96

September 22nd, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^

Yes MSU was elite last year - but Iowa and Wisconsin were #6 and #7 last year.  Not due to them being elite - they were solid defenses that enjoyed feasting on bad OOC and Big 10 offenses.  No one said "man the calibar of Big 10 defense is like SEC from 5 years ago".

This year we have #8, #9, #10, #13, and #14 defenses in the country per stats.  So either the Big 10 has entered a golden age of dominant defenses or its really cool to play a lot of mediocre offenses* up here in the Midwest.

*yes there are exceptions like Oregon and Utah on these schedules but by and large its the rule.

UMaD

September 22nd, 2014 at 11:37 PM ^

For the life of me, I do not understand why people keep saying this.

Our OL lost Lewan and Schofield and has the same position coach.  They are younger than last year, they are less experienced. The RUN blocking has improved, but the pass protection is worse than last year. That's a big reason why Morris and Gardner look so inept.

funkywolve

September 23rd, 2014 at 1:16 AM ^

If you would have told me in August, and probably countless others, that the running game would look better then last year after 4 games**, I'd have been pretty optimistic for the big ten slate.  Instead, I'm wondering if UM will even make a bowl game.

** - while the running game is no where close to a juggernaut, there are holes there and yards to be gained.  The running game still has a ways to go to be on par with to compare with the average running games of past UM teams.

Carcajou

September 22nd, 2014 at 9:12 PM ^

...anybody who thinks DB is comparing Hoke to RR and concerned about being equally fair will be disappointed.

DB wants Hoke to work out- not only because Hoke was his own hire, but because of what he felt went wrong with RR: Michigan had lost its physical toughness, its physicality.  That was painfully obvious in all the losses to MSU, OSU, and most of all, the embarassing bowl loss.  That aspect wasn't getting any better, and- like it or not- toughness has, should, and will be part of the Michigan 'brand'.

While Hoke's teams have improved in terms of physical toughness, neither Hoke's teams nor RR's teams had enough in the way of mental toughness. In my recollection, RR's teams tended to fade in the 2nd half, especially against better opponents. Denard's feet saved RR's offenses.

As bad as the OL and other problems are, what we have to deal with at the moment is two QBs who panic under presure.  Which, of course, invites more pressure.

Throwing motion is just a physical aspect, and yet it notoriously hard to fix.  Urban Meyer and some of the best QB gurus around couldn't fix Tebow.

Some pyschological aspects are even tougher.  While coaching ability can fix a lot of things, coolness under pressure are a lot more difficult to coach into a player.

champswest

September 23rd, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^

Shane gets the start, hits a few of those passes that Devin often seems to throw behind the receiver, make some nice runs, don't kill the drive with penalties or minus yardage plays and we score on Minnesota early. That leads to confidence and momentum, which leads to a win. Then it is on to Rutgers and another win. Next thing you know, we are on a roll.

MosherJordan

September 23rd, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^

One common characteristic. RR had some young defenses, filled with more underclass men then upper. Same is true of BH and his offense. Don't get me wrong, I've seen enough cluelessness to make me want Hoke gone, he's in over his head, but youth is a real thing. I wish I could find the link, but I'm pretty sure I read a mathlete post back in like 2012 that said that 2013 would be worse than 2012, and that 2014 would be the low point in terms of this, with a rapid maturing in 2015 and 2016.

gobluenyc

September 23rd, 2014 at 9:50 PM ^

I don't miss RR. His offenses could look great at times, but when we faced stout defenses, we could not score. More importantly, I never liked the hire because of his record with the kids. He had a few players like Pacman Jones who were immensely talented but cause problems everywhere they went. 

That said, I do think Denard and Devin would have fared much better in his system. I recall reading somewhere on MGoblog that Nuss had experience mixing spread and pro-style. (I also remember reading that about Borges.) I don't know why Nuss is not mixing in the spread except possibly in an effort to teach the line one thing until they get it right. It's the opposite approach Al took, in which he tried every thing he could think of and confused the hell out of them. 

I feel for both of those QBs. I think they are victims of circumstances. I think this line has the talent to perform. It takes a lot of time, more time than Devin has in his career.