Mid-Week Metrics Retreats to a Cabin in the Woods

I think Coach Beckman at Toledo deserves special mention in your Zook Punt Of The Week for his crappy timeout management Tuesday night

Looking forward to that manifesto, Mathlete

You do opponent adjusted stats, but do you do play-calling adjusted stats? Or garbage time adjusted? For example, Eastern Michigan was able to rack up nearly 200 yards on the ground and came into the game ranked 6th in the nation in rushing yards per game. They only passed a grand total of 3 times, though. Michigan State also didn't pass as much because of the trash tornado, which is a factor in their high rushing total in that game.

Similarly, once Purdue fell behind by a lot, they were forced to almost exclusively pass and by the 4th quarter they had only accumulated 170 or something yards total so we put in our 2nd string defense and they were finally able to move the ball. The vast majority of Purdue's passing yards came in garbage time.

Merry Christmas to the board!  Looking forward to my presents from the Mathlete.

go DOWN after they lost to Minnesota?  I would think stat-based metrics would crush them for that.

Mathelete, is this one of Denard's worst rushing ratings you've seen?  Just curious.

How is Iowa 3rd and 2nd in rush and pass defense in the Big 10? I have no idea how you can arrive at those numbers.. (even after looking at your methodology). The only medicore competition they have beaten(unless you count Pitt) is Northwestern, and have lost to some terrible competition (Minnesota, Iowa State). Not to mention Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa State, and Pitt racking up huge amounts of yardage against them.

In addition, Iowa is ranked 9th in scoring defense, 9th in total defense, 12th in pass defense, 9th in pass efficiency defense, and 9th in sacks. In other words, they have marginally better defense than Minnesota, Indiana, and Northwestern. This is all while playing their cupcake schedule.

Maybe you're counting the Penn State game as bumping-up their stats? But you have to realize then that Penn State is 12th in the big 10 (below Minnesota) in pass offense efficiency , 9th in pass offense, and 10th in total offense. I don't see how they can be one of the top 3 defenses in the Big 10 this way.

Florida's probability of scoring on the drive at the point of facing 4th and 2 from the 37 compared to their probability of scoring on the following drive with 1st and 10 from the 36 post punt.

What is contributing the most to our bad special teams ranking? Is  there an area that is good? FG kicking is improved, but we haven't had to kick much. How bad are we doing with kick returns? I thought our punting was supposed to be a strength.

Even though the rank is low the effect is minimal. Special teams really only matter if you are really good or really bad at them which Michigan is neither. Kickoff is a strength, FG kicking is slighly above average. Punting has been a disappointment and both return games are the biggest source of the ranking.

I'm still wondering about the Illinois decision to go for 2 when up by 7. I tried doing the math myself, but there were too many variables to make my napkin math reliable in the least bit. It seems to me, though, that if you are near certain that the opponent's offense will move down the field to score (1) you should be near certain that they will make a 2pt conversion, (2) they probably have a better chance to win in overtime than you, and (3) you should take every opportunity you can to seal the game. I view it in the same way that I view our final TD against ND. We could have gone the safe route, kicked the FG, and gone to overtime, but if you have a chance to seal the game, you take it, assuming that the gamble is small.

Anyway, I think it would be interesting to see which scenarios, if any, warrant going for 2 and which variables (opp off, your def, time, hfa, etc.) would be the most influential in the decision.

How are the "Game Odds" calculated?

After Illinois layed an egg against Purdue and their recent losses to PSU and OSU, it would seem that we should be heavily favored, even if @ Illinois.

The reverse for Nebraska, which took MSU to task this past week.

OT theory: e.g. Playing for OT or a win at the end of regulation? Percentages on taking the ball 1st in OT vs. taking the "bottom of the 9th" advantage?  Score a TD to be down 1 before 3rd OT: when do you go for 2?  4th and goal inside the 2 with the first possession: what probability of scoring a TD suffices to overcome the necessity of taking the 3 points?

Hoke vs. Dantonio theory: Hoke has shown himself to be aggressive on 4th down this year, especially with short yardage in the "No Man's Land" where we often get the Dumb Punt of the Week.  But he's so far just played straight up going for it.  Dantonio, as we know, has a proclivity for the fake.  A subsection of fourth down theory might look at going for it straight up vs. faking a FG/punt.

at beating OSU and a greater than 50% chance against Nebraska?  

Purdue is 38? Is that a typo? Iowa at 88? Wouldn't that imply Iowa will be much easier than Purdue (even if on the road)?