Michigan's Path to Indianapolis in 2019 - Part 2 - Pollyanna Edition
We crushed Notre Dame. Hooray, that was terrific! Unfortunately, everything else we needed to happen, didn't, as Ohio State surgically dismantled Wisconsin and Michigan State looked predictably meh against Penn State.
So how screwed are we? Pretty screwed. We're still two games behind both OSU and PSU and needing both of them to lose twice to give us a 3-way end-of-season tie at 7-2. Problem is we need both to lose the right games. Remaining schedules for both are thus:
Ohio State: Maryland, @Rutgers, Penn State, @Michigan
Penn State: @Minnesota, Indiana, @OSU, Rutgers
Last week, I laid out the four most plausible scenarios that might get Michigan to a tiebreaker. All of those to some extent are now done, so let's look at additional scenarios that are going to seem terribly unlikely to all of you.
Scenario 5
Penn State finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Minnesota and Indiana/Rutgers (yeah right, Rutgers)
OSU finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to PSU and Michigan
Tiebreaker: 3-way tie between Michigan, OSU, and PSU. PSU wins East with 2-0 record against Michigan and OSU.
This is what we mean about each team losing the right games. For Michigan to have any chance, we need Penn State to lose to OSU, which means....
Scenario 6
Penn State finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Minnesota and OSU
OSU finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Michigan and Maryland/Rutgers (yeah right, Rutgers)
Tiebreaker: 3-way tie between Michigan, OSU, and PSU. All teams are 1-1 versus each other. Michigan and PSU over OSU based on 1 loss in East versus OSU having 2 losses. PSU wins East based on head-to-head result with Michigan.
Yeah...so even if OSU suffers a world-shattering upset to Maryland or Rutgers, that still doesn't help us if Penn State only loses once in-division. Does anything help us? This takes us to....
Scenario 7
Penn State finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Indiana/Rutgers (yeah right, Rutgers) and OSU
OSU finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Maryland/Rutgers (yeah right, Rutgers) and Michigan
Tiebreak: 3-way tie between Michigan, OSU, and PSU. All teams are 1-1 versus each other. Michigan wins East based on 1 loss in-division versus 2 losses for both OSU and PSU.
Unfortunately for us, this is probably the most plausible remaining path for us to win the East because the other possibilities are....
Scenario 8
Penn State finishes 6-3 in conference with losses to Minnesota, Indiana/Rutgers (yeah right, Rutgers) and OSU
OSU finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Michigan and Maryland/Rutgers (yeah right, Rutgers)
Tiebreaker: 2-way tie between Michigan and OSU. Michigan wins East based on head-to-head result.
Scenario 9
Penn State finishes 6-3 in conference with losses to Minnesota, Indiana, and Rutgers (no really, Rutgers), but they beat OSU
OSU finishes 7-2 in conference with losses to Michigan and Penn State
Tiebreaker: 2-way tie between Michigan and OSU. Michigan wins East based on head-to-head result.
Takeaways:
- Fuck
- OSUs two most plausible losses remaining on their schedule are to Michigan and Penn State
- Penn States two most plausible losses remaining on their schedule are to Minnesota and and OSU
- Wait, but that means....
- We need OSU to lose to somebody else besides Michigan that is not Penn State...Go Terps?
- The Minnesota / Penn State game is only important if Penn State is going to do us the favor of also losing to...Indiana? And/or Rutgers?
- Fuck
So that's that deal? That's the deal.
Obviously, that's some long odds facing us right now, like Leiscester City winning the EPL going into the 2015 season long. Still, the door isn't fully closed yet, so cross your fingers and hope for some miracles and absent that, have Michigan run the table and deliver us a happy ending on November 30th.
Happy Halloween and Go Blue!
October 31st, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Essentially, Penn State has to lose to Indiana AND Rutgers, AND then has to beat Ohio State in Columbus.
OR, Penn State needs to lose 2 to Minnesota/IU/Rutgers and Ohio State needs to lose to either Maryland or Rutgers.
So, one of these two things must happen (plus other variables): Rutgers has to beat Penn State or Ohio State has to lose to Maryland or Rutgers. That's it.
I'm not even saying there's a chance.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
The most plausible scenario is that the Big Ten East gets decided in 3 weeks when Penn State plays Ohio State in Columbus.
October 31st, 2019 at 7:31 PM ^
Thanks Comrade for putting these posts together. I'd love to see you do one where you look at our possibilities for going to the *Rose Bowl*. I.e., if we beat OSU somehow, but OSU still wins the Big 10 championship, they may very well end up in the playoff, which means the #2 team in the Big Ten goes to the Rose Bowl. IIRC, the Rose Bowl gets to pick who it wants, or they have to pick the second-ranked Big Ten team in the CFP rankings. Either way, it seems to me that while the B1G championship is well-nigh impossible, it is possible that if we win out, we could get to the Rose Bowl.
October 31st, 2019 at 8:02 PM ^
For Michigan to have a shot at the Rose Bowl, they would need Penn State to lose to Minnesota then the Gophers to lose to Wisconsin and Iowa and we’d have to beat Ohio State and hope they make the playoff.
I’d much rather beat OSU, them miss the playoff and go to the Rose Bowl and us go to the Orange/Cotton although that would be matchup with either Wake Forest (?) or a G5 team.
October 31st, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
I'm feeling confident.
OSU is losing to us and PSU.
PSU is losing to Minnesota and Indiana.
Book it.
/s
(I feel like I shouldn't have to add "/s", but I guess some people might actually say this)
October 31st, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
Even that wouldn't get M to Indy!
October 31st, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
Right {makes sad face}.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
Ouch. I guess I should've read the diary more closely.
October 31st, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
Yeah, you're basically describing Scenario 6. *sadface*
November 1st, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
Yeah that didn't seem like too far of a stretch... But we lose the tiebreak.
Scenario 7 is plausible, but I'd say only if Fields goes down early in the Maryland game. OSU can't adapt quickly, but puts in a game plan to beat PSU over the next 2 weeks.
October 31st, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^
Well said. At the end of the day running the table would make this the best season I’ve seen (fan since 2006). That would be dang impressive and set us up nicely for a run next year. Going to be tough but if we were to beat OSU and MSU that changes most narratives. So let do it.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Winning out and beating our 3 biggest rivals in the process will be a championship season to me.
October 31st, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Michigan has a better shot of getting into the playoffs at 10-2 than they do of getting to the big 10 championship
October 31st, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
Who knows? Players get hurt and fortunes change as a result. Justin Fields is one bad hit away from OSU's season going down the drain. Does PSU have a serviceable back-up if Sean Clifford goes down?
I'm not advocating for any one player to get hurt BTW.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
This is the reason though I think we need an 8 team playoff. Some teams like the 9-3 USC that beat PSU in the Rose Bowl develop late after they already got knocked out of contention. That team probably would've won a game or two in an 8 team playoff. If this Michigan team goes on to beat OSU, they'd be in a similar boat with Sam Darnold's USC team a few years back.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
I’m getting nervous for the most Michigan scenario possible to end the year:
OSU goes into The Game undefeated, Michigan pulls off the improbable upset, but it means nothing to OSU as they make it to the Big Ten championship (and win), and the committee has them in the playoffs at 12-1. They win the championship. Because even when good things happen to us, bad things happen. At least that’s what it feels like. I’m now expecting this to happen.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
That is the likely scenario if we beat them as far as them getting into the Playoff goes. A loss to Michigan is not going to ruin their season if they are undefeated at the time of the game. One could argue that they should rest their starters during The Game if they come in undefeated, which would literally be a bigger kick in the balls then any loss possibly could be.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
This is the darkest timeline...and you went and spoke it into existence
October 31st, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
If we dismantled OSU by a large margin, like what we did to ND, then the committee might choose another one-loss conference champion, like OU if they win the rest of their games. I would be rooting for this.
October 31st, 2019 at 6:07 PM ^
It's more likely that if OSU is undefeated and the B1G's best chance at the CFP then B1G refs would job Michigan at the big house to make it so. It's happened before and I'm sure it will happen again as long as delaney is around.
November 1st, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
I'm surprised to keep seeing references to Delaney - I thought he was gone. According to the B1G:
"The Big Ten Conference Council of Presidents and Chancellors (COP/C) announced today that Kevin Warren has been named the sixth commissioner of the Big Ten Conference. He will start on September 16, 2019, to take full advantage of an opportunity to transition alongside Commissioner Jim Delany, who will officially step down on January 1, 2020 following a 30-year career with the conference."
So, the good news is Delaney is mostly gone.
https://bigten.org/news/2019/6/4/general-warren-named-sixth-commissioner-of-big-ten-conference.aspx
October 31st, 2019 at 6:43 PM ^
Strongly Disagree. If we beat OSU and don’t make it to the championship game, who freaking cares? Just beating OSU is more than enough to make me happy.
November 1st, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
While OSU winning it all would be annoying, I'd be pretty happy with a 10-2 season including a sweep of our rivals. And OSU fans would be conflicted by that outcome.
October 31st, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
0 chance
Need to get rid of these divisions - currently, teams in the East realistically can't lose an East game ... which means to even play in the B1G title game you need to be a CFP caliber team. Not so in the West where you might not even need to be a top 20 team, like last year and maybe even this year.
October 31st, 2019 at 1:51 PM ^
Penn State would make for a seriously bullshitty 11-1 team. Barf.
October 31st, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
When Michigan loses to Maryland, none of this will matter.
/s
October 31st, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
We acknowledge the /s, but you've got that wrong. It's as follows:
When Michigan destroys unbeaten #1 Ohio State, none of this will matter.
October 31st, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
OSU won't be unbeaten/#1 at that point, because they will have annihilated PSU (who also lost to Minnesota), BUT lost in freaky-indiana-style to Maryland.
When we crush one-loss #5 OSU and undefeated #3 Minnesota in consecutive weeks, to take the B1G championship, we squeeze into the playoffs at 10-2.
After beating LSU and then Clemson, we raise our undisputed CFP championship trophy!
October 31st, 2019 at 9:09 PM ^
I see there's plenty of /s to go around.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
laughed out loud and scared the dog on that one !
October 31st, 2019 at 5:24 PM ^
You should have saved the time. None of these scenarios is going to come to pass. Just win out and call it a good season with wins over ND, MSU and OSU. I for one would be thrilled.
October 31st, 2019 at 6:05 PM ^
So Maryland needs to beat OSU or it just ain't happening.
October 31st, 2019 at 6:46 PM ^
As I said before, I'd prefer that OSU runs the table, and comes into the Game with ZERO reasonable to play their best game. We ain't going to Indy, so I'll take the far more plausible scenario where we get every intangible possible for the OSU game. Winning that one would be the most tangible sign of progress still available this season.
October 31st, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^
Not going to happen, bud.
November 1st, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
So speaks our resident buckeye troll.
November 1st, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
So speaks this board's biggest pussy. Fuck you. Why don't you post more about your son who's "a senior at William & Mary". I imagine he's gets picked on just like you. Sounds like you should have named him Mary.
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^
Ah Mikey, your screen name here is tainted. All know you are a troll. How about you try honesty? Make a buckeye or STAEE (whichever is appropriate) themed screen name and post glowing observations of your team here?
The truth will set you free and you may grow some self esteem.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:10 PM ^
Big talk, old man. Go tend to your wife. Sounds like she wears the pants in the "relationship".
November 3rd, 2019 at 8:05 AM ^
You have no clue how out of place you are here.
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
This sort of talk belongs on the RCMB next to guys bragging about their sexual exploits. This is a semi classy site.
October 31st, 2019 at 7:34 PM ^
Pollyanna's a stone-cold realist compared to your scenarios.
However, that doesn't mean I'm saying you're wrong. Maybe you're right. So I'll tuck this in a random spot in my brain and, if it happens, haul it out and say "I knew it all along."
October 31st, 2019 at 11:37 PM ^
Thanks for writing this. It's a bummer to realize what a long shot it all is but really helpful to have the comprehensive view of the whole thing. Really appreciate this work.
November 1st, 2019 at 8:22 AM ^
cocky Michigan Fan is back.. OSU WILL CRUSH YOU AGAIN YOU IDIOTS. You are NOT winning the east lol
November 3rd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Mods please send to Bolivia
November 1st, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
My personal favorite would probably be OSU losing to Michigan, winning the B1G, going to the playoff, and winning that too. That seems like a new way to inflict suffering on you guys.
November 1st, 2019 at 9:12 AM ^
I see someone already did this one above. Shoulda read the replies first.
November 1st, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
Yeah, but would you guys still put the UM-OSU score on your NC rings?
;-)
November 1st, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
So correct me if I am wrong but if PSU were to lose to Minny, OSU and Indiana, which is unlikely but possible since they all seem like decent teams this year and UM beats OSU, UM could go the Rose Bowl if OSU still wins the Big Ten and goes to the playoff (and hopefully gets crushed of course). I would take the Rose Bowl and win over OSU, that would be a very nice consolation prize. Does the Rose Bowl have to take PSU in the event that UM and PSU both finish with 2 losses?
November 1st, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^
So, 2020.
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