Iowatch! Week 6 - Ferentz, Romans, Countrymen

Submitted by PopeLando on October 9th, 2023 at 9:08 AM

Intro:

I try to differentiate between process and results: for instance, I can deal with losing to a significantly better team. Context matters. Michigan’s opponents lose to a significantly better team all the time. What I can’t deal with is fielding a poorly-prepared team, which is what Iowa is doing right now on offense. They don’t run routes well. They don’t block well. They drop passes at a pretty astounding rate. It isn’t the lack of scoring by itself that frustrates me about Iowa; it’s everything that’s leading to a lack of scoring.

The finger is pointed squarely at “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz, but I’d like to make a very important distinction here. Ready? I’d like to point the finger at Brian Ferentz the QUARTERBACKS’ coach: he took over coaching QBs from Ken O’Keefe, who held that position from 1999-2011 and from 2017-2021, and it hasn’t been pretty since. Not that it was terribly pretty before. But even though Ferentz The Younger didn’t exactly inherit Denard Robinson, Spencer Petras was only bad in the 2021 season, not disastrous.

Iowa’s plunge into the Swamp of Sadness (DO NOT CLICK THAT LINK I’M SO SORRY) has coincided with Brian Ferentz dropping the OL/RB/TE duties and assuming the QB coaching duties. If “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz is going to remain on the Hawkeyes’ staff next year - a near certainty - then I’d like to suggest getting a new QB coach lined up ASAP and sending Brian Ferentz back to coaching TEs or maybe OL, where the position coach for the last two years has also been failing to develop talent. Who’s truly to blame for the offense’s woes? Position coaching MATTERS: just ask Michigan’s WRs during the year that Jim McElwain literally phoned it in.

Week 6 Update

One-Sentence* Summary:

Here’s what you need to know about Iowa: The defense delivered a turnover to the Hawkeye offense at the Purdue 5-yard line. Three plays later, after a 9-yard run on third down, Iowa kicked a 4th-and-goal FG from the Purdue 9-yard line. Iowa Math™.

Purdue is, quite possibly, the very best “baseline” team that you could play: they came into this game ranked 60th in SP+ offense and 66th in SP+ defense, as close to “dead average” as a team can be. Life is just a series of moments, and at this moment, a football game against Purdue is the best possible measuring stick for how good or bad your team is. So…we found out who Iowa is.

Warning: I’m already running out of things to say about Iowa’s defense, and will soon resort to Douglas Adams-esque comparisons. Purdue came into this matchup averaging 28 points (dead average in the B1G Conference) and 400 yards per game. And even though Iowa didn’t exactly shut them down, ceding 343 yards (this same issue gave Iowa fans angst last week against Sparty), they only gave up 14 points on 14 drives and 80 plays. But the Hawkeye defense came up big AGAIN, this time notching two INTs. This is a “bend and then break you” defense. [No, I don’t know if anyone’s ever used that before. Yes, I’m going to take credit for it.]

Old Frenemy Cade McNamara is out for the season: my completely unscientific conclusion is that non-contact injuries tend to be worse than contact injuries, and his looked rough. We’ll see him next year. QB Deacon Hill, who at this point should be promoted to Priest Hill (a little clergy humor is ALWAYS a good idea for a football audience…), continued his valiant efforts from last week, throwing 6/21 for 110 yards and 1 TD (again to Old Frenemy Erick All) with 1 interception. He also was plagued - again - by drops, bad route running, terrible protection from his OL, frogs, and locusts.

Iowa WRs caught zero balls for zero yards. Hill’s interception hit the Iowa WR in the face and ended up in Purdue’s hands. Two missed field goals added to Iowa’s woes.

Saving Private Brian

There’s a silver lining. A long time ago, a Michigan-OSU game called the Snow Bowl took (and still holds) the trophy as The Most Miserable Game of Football Ever Played. It featured over 1,400 combined punting yards (Iowa fans just got interested), spectators lit fires in the stands (Michigan State fans just got interested) and neither coach actually wanted to play the game in the first place. Sound like Iowa football yet? Michigan won 9-3. Iowa Football confirmed.

Here’s the point: both teams often punted ON FIRST DOWN because their chances of “turnover + field goal” scoring was far more preferable than trusting the offense to move the ball. Iowa is not at that level (yet); their offense still occasionally moves forward and scores points. The closest anyone’s got this year is probably Nebraska before Jeff “Turnover” Sims was benched. It could be worse yet. Theoretically. 

Futility Rate

Me, above: “their offense still occasionally moves forward and scores points.”

This graph: “the word ‘occasionally’ is doing a lot of work in that sentence, buddy.”

Question: should missed field goals count as turnovers or 4-and-out? I’ve included them in the latter.

RB Receptions are Moneyball, Dammit

I damn near shed a tear when Deacon Hill found RB Kaleb Johnson for a 13-yard pass play early, because I thought the floodgates were about to open. There were no more completions to RBs. Nor to WRs. Nor to anyone not named “Erick All.”

It’s not an exaggeration to say that Old Frenemy Erick All is easily their best, and maybe only, offensive weapon.

Next week I’m going to debut the “Least Moneyball Award”, for the B1G team with the lowest total RB receiving yardage. The odds that Iowa wins this award are roughly 95%. I’m also going to grant a “Most Moneyball Award”; the smart money would be on Michigan (because of Donovan “You Can Turn Into Saquon Anytime Please” Edwards), but I have a nagging feeling that a dark horse candidate will take this one.

One-Phase Football

Here’s your defensive SP+ leaders for 2023:

  • Pre-season: Iowa
  • Week 1: Georgia
  • Week 2: Iowa
  • Week 3: Iowa
  • Week 4: Michigan
  • Week 5: Iowa
  • Week 6: Iowa

As of right now, as far as I can tell the Iowa defense has been on the field for 79 more snaps than the Georgia defense and 140(!!!) more snaps than the Michigan defense. The Iowa defense plays more snaps than anyone else in the B1G conference, and still manages to be the best defense in the nation.

I’m going to ask again: is there a ranking higher than first that we can give them?

But that SP+ Gap is now historic levels of One-Phase Football. I addressed this from a Points per Drive perspective last week, but got curiouser. Here are the 5 largest SP+ Gaps EVER.

  1. 1973      Utah                     Gap of 130 (off 5; def 135)                         
  2. 1979      San Jose State    Gap of 128 (off 10; def 138)                       
  3. 1975      The Citadel          Gap of 126 (off 139; def 13)                       
  4. 1977      McNeese State    Gap of 121 (off 141; def 20)                       
  5. 1979      Utah State            Gap of 121 (off 9; def 130)                         

2022 Iowa, for all the futility, didn’t even crack the TOP 180 largest all-time SP+ Gaps! If the season ended today, 2023 Iowa would be tied with 1977 McNeese St. and 1979 Utah St. for the 4th largest gap ever.

For those wondering, the greatest SP+ Gap in Michigan history, by FAR, is the 1939 team, which had the #2 offense and the #110 defense, for (close to) an Inverse Iowa!

Hey, It Could Be Worse

Once again, it could not. Even more than last week, it could not. But Northwestern is making a game of it with 117th SP+ offense.

Comments

PopeLando

October 9th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^

But let’s take a look at context. If you don’t count the bowl game or the B1G Championship game, Iowa has exactly two threats left on their schedule: Wisconsin (38th SP+ offense) and Rutgers (80th SP+ offense). Iowa might roll into the B1G Championship game with 1 loss.

F***ing incredible.

EDIT: I've made a decision re: missed field goals. If the missed field goal comes at the end of a drive that didn't gain a first down, it's a 4-and-out. If the missed field goal comes at the end of a drive which DID gain a first down, it's a turnover. So Iowa gets credit for two fewer 4 and outs, and gets dinged with two more turnover drives. I might adjust the pie chart entirely to count all turnover-on-downs drives as turnovers.

And if Iowa special teams is going to struggle with field goals...god help Iowa...

DesertGoBlue

October 9th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^

Really enjoying all of this work you're putting together. Thank you! 

Regarding the question as to how to file missed field goals, shouldn't that always go down as a 4-and-out? From an offensive perspective, isn't a turnover a failure to secure the football by means of a fumble, strip, interception? On fourth down a team is faced with one of three options: go for it, punt or attempt a field goal. Going for it and failing to make the line to gain is considered a turnover on downs, but not filed as a turnover. A punt is a cognitive choice to give the opposing team the ball back, albeit at a (hopefully) materially worse field position, and also not considered a turnover.

The choice to kick a field goal involves the same risk-reward analysis as going for it. As with the decision to go for it on fourth, you're accepting the risk of potentially giving the opposition improved field position should you fail to convert (field goal or first down). 

Since we don't consider a punt or failure to pick up the first when going for it on fourth as a "turnover," it seems defensible to keep the kick-and-miss field goal decisions filed as 4-and-out. 

I think keeping the missed field goals in the 4-and-out basket better makes the case that Iowa's offense is the very definition of futile. They are actively trying to score points and are unable to do so. I suppose if the volume of missed field goals gets large enough it might earn it's own slice of the pie! 

 

PopeLando

October 9th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^

I hear you, which is why I struggle with it. 

IMO, the end result of a missed field goal or a turnover on downs is the ball going to the other team at the LoS…which is quite similar to a fumble recovery I guess???

I can’t in good faith call a Downs turnover a 4-and-out if the drive picked up a 1st down lol

EGD

October 9th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^

After looking somewhat respectable against MSU and having his receivers drop a whole bunch of passes, the Iowa backup QB looked utterly terrible against Purdue. He did have that one nice pass to wide-open All for the TD but that was pretty much it. It was sort of like when O'Korn had that one nice game against like Indiana or somebody and then permasucked thereafter.

On the bright side, the Iowa rushing attack looked plausibly serviceable at times. If they weren't so damn on-dimensional they might have something to work with. If their QB could get his completion percentage up to like 36% that would be a big help.

PopeLando

October 9th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^

Hilariously, Deacon Hill is passing at a 37% rate! So...there we go.

Overall, Iowa QBs are at 45.9% on the year. Which is mostly due to two 55% days that Cade had against Utah St. and Iowa St., and a dead even 50% against Western Michigan and their powerhouse defense.

I'm looking forward to next week, when Iowa will likely match their pass TD total from last year.

EGD

October 9th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^

37%! That's heady stuff.

I just kept seeing them put his numbers up during the game and he was always like 1/7, 2/13 and so forth so I just assumed he must have finished with a similarly dismal percentage. I guess when you are that low to being with it only takes a couple of completions to ratchet the completion percentage way up.  

NeverPunt

October 10th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^

6 games through the season and they have mustered:

6 rushing TDs

6 passing TDs

12 total TDs

For reference the NCAA leader in offensive touchdowns has a few more...USC has scored 40 touchdowns so far this season. More than TRIPLE what Iowa has produced.

JMo

October 9th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^

Enjoying this weekly diary. Wondering if there might be room for the "Executive Summary" graphic at either the top or the bottom of the post. 

By my understanding, Ferentz's offense needs to average 25 points per game and the team needs to win 7 games for him to keep his job. I'm wondering if there's a neat and tidy little graphic you can make that shows his progress toward his job saving benchmarks all combined into one... ala the TLDR/Executive Summary graphic with a trendline?  The Saving Private Brian obviously shows us the OPPG, but it might be interesting to know if they're moving in the right direction, wrong direction, etc.

Just a (half-baked) thought. Keep up the great work.

PopeLando

October 9th, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^

Thanks! This space assumes that Brian Ferentz will keep his job no matter what. 7 wins is basically  guaranteed at this point.

And IIRC his contract doesn't actually say he will be FIRED if he fails to meet his benchmarks, just that the contract will auto-renew if he DOES.

This space also assumes the Ferentz Uncertainty Principle: you can either know where you are at the moment, or whether you're trending in the right direction ;) The problem with a moving average is that early-season averages mean (pun intended) a lot less than later season averages, due to sample size. Iowa isn't the team that scored 41 on Western Michigan. They aren't the team that scored 0 on Penn State. They are both.

EDIT: I've re-considered. Iowa's BYE is Oct 28. I'm out of town that weekend so I wasn't planning on publishing an Iowatch!, but I think a moving average graph would be a good BYE week thing, for a "so...how's it going...?" feature. Double thanks!

snarling wolverine

October 10th, 2023 at 7:16 AM ^

By my understanding, Ferentz's offense needs to average 25 points per game and the team needs to win 7 games for him to keep his job.

If the Iowa team averages 25 ppg, his contract is automatically renewed.  They could still renew it (and probably will) if they fall short of that, it's just not automatic.  I don't think wins are factored in.

1VaBlue1

October 11th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^

With 7 wins, he's auto-renewed anyway.  They'll get 7 wins with that defense.  And, dear God, if they win the West (which is a legit consideration), he'll get a raise!  This is amazing!  The worst qualified coordinator, running the worst offense, wins the B1G West and get extended with (probably) a raise!  What a time to live in the CFB world!!!

treetown

October 9th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^

Even the die hard Iowa loyalists are finding 6 out 21 hard to stomach.

Rutgers should beat Iowa but like Iowa, they also have offensive worries at QB. Wisconsin on paper should beat Iowa decisively since you know they actually can play all three parts of football - defense, offense and special teams. 

Nebraska if they can clean up their play, should beat Iowa.

Minnesota until this past weekend seemed likely but after seeing how lost Kaliakmanis looked Iowa could have more interception return yards than the Gophers have passing yards. 

Note to PJ Fleck - DO NOT throw to whomever or whichever side Cooper DeJean (wears #3) is covering. Just a word of advice to help out your QB.

It would be hilarious if Iowa winds the Big Ten West...

Blue@LSU

October 9th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^

What I can’t deal with is fielding a poorly-prepared team, which is what Iowa is doing right now on offense. They don’t run routes well. They don’t block well. They drop passes at a pretty astounding rate.

This exactly. And another frustrating thing is that there is absolutely no improvement. They are actually regressing as the season continues:

  • Preseason: 81
  • Week 1: 93
  • Week 2: 87 (improvement?)
  • Week 3: 81 (improvement?)
  • Week 4: 108 (nope)
  • Week 5: 117 (double nope)
  • Week 6: 122 (wtf?)

It's not only that they have the dead last offense among the P5. Hell, there are only 11 teams in all of FBS with a worse offense than Iowa. 53 non-P5 teams have a better offense.

(BTW: I like the cumulative graph of RB receptions instead of weekly numbers. It's mind blowing that they only have 11 RB receptions on the entire year).

Love this series. Thanks for doing it every week.

Edit: didn't both Kirk and Brian Ferentz used to coach OL? How the hell can you field such a horrible offensive line when your HC and OC are former OL coaches?

PopeLando

October 9th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^

You have a knack for predicting EXACTLY what I plan to talk about in each week's Iowatch intro. Next week I'm going to talk about how Iowa's regression doesn't make sense.

This is why I'm not necessarily on board with the narrative that everything is OC Brian Ferentz's fault. There have been incredibly unlucky injuries. It wouldn't matter if Peyton Manning was standing behind that OL. Firing the OC for a bad offense, without first taking a deep dive into WHY the offense sucks, is terrible management practice.

I think the QB coaching is bad. I think the OL coaching is bad. I think the WR coaching is bad. Those are position coaching failures. This goes way WAY beyond the "OC" part of Brian's job. Iowa has put some folks into the NFL that Brian Ferentz has coached directly.

Hemlock Philosopher

October 9th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^

This is hilarious... featured over 1,400 combined punting yards (Iowa fans just got interested), spectators lit fires in the stands (Michigan State fans just got interested) and neither coach actually wanted to play the game in the first place. Added this in my mind "(Miami fans just got interested)".

Blue Vet

October 9th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^

Nice wordsmithery, Your Holiness:

• promoted to Priest Hill. Niiiice. Could he someday aspire to be a rival PopeHill?

• "bend and then break you defense." Niiiice. Is that † or © or ™ ie ®?

Also, I assume I'm not the first to think of labeling him the offensive "Coordinator" Brian Ferentz. But do I get a prize if I'm the 1,000th caller to use it?

 

J. Redux

October 9th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^

Adams-type comparisons: Iowa's defensive backs catch interceptions in much the same way that bricks don't?  Or maybe just, Brian Ferentz assumes that if you can't see him, he can't see you?

If The Citadel is going to be on the list, it's reassuring to see them with a stout defense. The name checks out.

I'm less sure about promoting Deacon Hill.  I just think somebody needs to write a Steely Dan parody about him.  "They call Brian Ferentz Nepotism Boy; call me Deacon Hill!"

crg

October 9th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^

Was reading a line about "lowest receiving yards" and my mind interpreted it as "Iowa-est receiving yards"... which was still correct.

Bo Glue

October 9th, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^

That's interesting about the Snow Bowl. I was under the impression the record for most yards punting in a game was still held by Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Centenary Gentlement in 1939. This summary is well worth a read anyway, as it is quite entertaining.

There were two field-goal attempts in the game, but the conditions made kicking near-impossible. Centenary’s attempt from the 11-yard line missed. On the last play of the game, Texas Tech lined up for the game-winner from the 18-yard line. The kick traveled just 12 yards, rolling to a stop on the six-yard line.

I'm having trouble figuring out how many yards Centenary's punter got, but Texas Tech's punter alone got 1,318. So I think that record still stands...

Here we go. I found an article on the game that had enough detail to answer my question. It actually lists Texas Tech with 1,377 punting yards, so I guess someone else got a few tries at it. Even the backup punter got 59 yards! Maybe. Meanwhile Centenary had 1,248 yards punting. So the teams combined for 2,625 yards. They punted for a mile and a half.

Just for a little more color, Centenary accounted for 31 of the 30 total offensive yards in the game. The teams combined for 85 possessions. And with their -1 yards on the day, the Red Raiders were still in position to attempt to score the winning points as time expired.

tybert

October 9th, 2023 at 9:53 PM ^

I'm close friends with an Iowa fan. Brian, in the eyes of Iowa fans, is not a BAD coach. He is a bad OC. The whole reason Kirk promoted him was to "show off" that he's ready to be a HC at Iowa someday. That's it - plain and simple. You don't promote OL coaches to HC. You promote DC and OC role. It's not like he's being carried to earn 850K per year just because. The ulterior motive is he gets the HC job when Kirk retires. And don't think for a moment that Kirk himself is on the hot seat. 4th winningest B1G coach all-time in B1G conf victories, behind only Woody, Bo, Stagg. 

BF is 40 years old, which is ideal if KF coaches 5 more years to take over AGEWISE (only). 

NeverPunt

October 10th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^

When will Iowa admit that Phil Parker is their real head coach???!? And that's he so damn good at his job that they've kept Brian & Kirk around to act as a failsafe to prevent Phil's defense and Iowa football from simply going supernova and swallowing college football as a whole???!!? We would have entered a decade+ of SHEER IOWA DOMINANCE that would have made Alabama look like Alabama A&M and Urban Meyer OSU look like Ryan Day OSU. The game of football would have lost all meaning. All players would simply refuse to play Iowa, forfeiting and giving them the title year after year by default.

Thank you for your brave service, Brian & Kirk. It is because of you that we still can enjoy football saturdays in the fall, guarding us from Phil and his defense. We want you on that wall. We NEED you on that wall.

kyle.aaronson

October 10th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

I’m also going to grant a “Most Moneyball Award”; the smart money would be on Michigan (because of Donovan “You Can Turn Into Saquon Anytime Please” Edwards), but I have a nagging feeling that a dark horse candidate will take this one.

I haven't looked, but my guess is the smart money is actually on PSU, considering Allar's aDOT.

SF Wolverine

October 10th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^

Ferentz is not going to average 28 ppg (even with help from the D) over the next six games.  So then what?  They fire him and bring in someone who can make better (any?) use of Cade following his recovery?

PopeLando

October 10th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^

That's the real question, isn't it? You gotta be SURE sure that Brian Ferentz is the ONLY problem if you advocate firing him. I don't think that's even close to a slam dunk. He can't catch the balls for the WRs, he can't block for the OL, he can't throw the ball for the QBs. He can't magically force all the myriad injured players back to 100%. This was the worst possible year to get his little contractual benchmarks.

And we KNOW that Kirk Ferentz isn't going to allow his son to get fired. [I love thinking about this in contrast to Jim and Jay Harbaugh - I fully believe that Jim Harbaugh would fire his own son without hesitation if he thought he could do better lol]

On the other side, you have Cade, who despite being a solid QB is limited both athletically, and, umm, attitudinally?? 

EGD

October 12th, 2023 at 6:54 AM ^

Brian Ferentz may not be the only problem for Iowa’s offense, but he certainly seems to be one of the problems. It’s been an inept offense for years. The QB and WR play in particular is wretched, and  that limits the run game because opponents know they are one-dimensional. I’d have to imagine the constant futility inhibits their recruiting by now, at least to some extent, which causes the problem to snowball.

I don’t normally advocate for firing coaches due to disappointing on-field results. Usually fans say “fire the coach” as a knee-jerk response and gloss over various other issues that may be much more responsible for whatever is going wrong with a team. But this has been going on for years in Iowa. It’s difficult to believe a head coach would tolerate such a consistently poor performance from an OC who wasn’t his own son, but there they are.