Inside the Boxscore - Team 135, Game 2

Submitted by ST3 on

    If Notre Dame was chicken for ending the series, why was it Michigan who laid an egg in this game? Honestly, I haven't felt this bad watching Michigan football since I saw that Ronald Reagan film, which is fitting considering the last time Michigan was shut out in a football game, Ronald Reagan was in his fist term as President. TIME OUT! {Come on, ST3, you can come up with a more original intro than that. Let's try again.}

     I was reading my copy of IEEE Spectrum this morning and saw an article about a recent psychological study in which it was shown that many subjects preferred to give themselves a mild electric shock rather than sit alone with their thoughts. Which is funny, because I'd rather give myself a major electric shock than have to write this diary. TIME OUT! {Whoa, way to cerebral there. Remember, this is a sports blog. OK, back to it.}

     FIRE BORGES! FIRE FUNK! FIRE MATTISON! FIRE NUSS! FIRE HOKE! FIRE BRANDON! TIME OUT, TIME OUT, TIME OUT!!! {People come to this diary for a quick link to the boxscore. They don't need another irrational over-reaction to the game.}

    If you bother to check the boxscore, you'll notice that they don't list time outs taken, because why would they? It's not something that influences the outcome of the game like third down conversions or turnovers. Or is it? Notre Dame's quarterback was clearly not ready to start this game. The NBC ND announcers even commented on this, with Mike Mayock pointing out the glazed look in Golson's eyes. It took ND three time outs in the first quarter to get him squared away. Meanwhile, on the Michigan sideline, things started off well as we held them to 14 yards on 6 plays and forced a punt. On Michigan's first possession, we drove 47 yards in 11 plays, but had to settle for a field goal attempt. Since Michigan was playing a road game in front of 113,511 people (that has to be a typo, right? but it's in the boxscore so it must be true because boxscores never lie) of course, the kick missed because we cannot have nice things on the road.

    As the game started getting away from us, the glazed look metaphorically transferred from Golson to Gardner, and the turnover parade started. But it wasn't just Gardner who was to blame. It was The Team, The Team, The Team. The offensive team, the defensive team, and the special teams.



Boxscore Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/090614aaa.html

Play-by-play Link: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/mich/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2014-15/box_score/stats_20140907aaa.pdf

Burst of Impetus

* Last week I said I was going to write up the seniors first because of a lesson learned from Bo's Lasting Lessons. But another thing I learned from that book was do what you do and do it better than anyone else. For Bo, that meant blocking and tackling. For me, that's diagnosing the burst of impetus. I touched on it earlier. I think the missed FG was a huge letdown emotionally for the team. After that, the defensive backs were a step slow to the ball, the blocking wasn't as crisp, and the gameplan went out the window.

* You'll hear reporters say there are 7 to 10 plays that decide a game. In a game where one team had 18 first downs and the other had 20, and the former team had 289 yards and the latter had 280, you'd expect a close game. However, when ALL 8 key plays go one way, you're going to have a blowout. The plays:

1. UofM misses a 46 yard field goal.

2. UofM misses a 48 yard field goal (or the failure to convert on third down on the play before.)

3. ND converts on 4th and 3 with Fuller beating Countess for 11 yards.

4. Gardner fumbles off Miller's back, Michigan loses 17 yards. Hagerup's resulting punt nets only 31 yards, setting ND up in position to score at the end of the half.

5. On 3rd and 1, Golson lobs a beautiful pass against single coverage and Fuller gathers it in for the score with 34 seconds left in the half. That's how you run a 2-minute offense.

6. First drive of the second half, if Michigan wants to get back in the game, we need to score. Gardner throws an ill-advised pass over the middle. Interception ND.

7. ND punts the ball to Michigan's 2 yard line. Michigan cannot gain enough yards to flip the field. When we are forced to punt, ND is left with a short field and manages to go in for the score, making it 28-0. Ballgame.

8. Somewhere in there, ND muffed a punt. Chesson was actually too far down the field to be able to react to the muff. ND recovered. M's one opportunity to regain the impetus was thwarted by too much hustle.



* I consider a missed FG the same as a turnover, since you are giving the other team the ball where you last had it. This is similar to fumbling a snap. So instead of getting 40 yards of field position from a punt, you've given the other team a better starting point. We had 4 turnovers and 2 missed field goals. That's ~240 yards of extra field position you can tack on to ND's total. That's how a 289-280 yardage advantage turns into a blowout the other way.

Seniors First (or second)

* Bo's book has an entire chapter titled, "Scuttle the Star System." We have numerous players wearing Legends Jerseys that are not performing like legends in the making. This quote seems worth sharing:

 

The fastest way to demoralize your entire team is to make exceptions for the stars.

 

* You can see the effect of all this legends stuff. Gardner locks on to Funchess time-after-time, while Smith and Hill and others are wide open. The same thing happened last year with Dileo. Spread the ball around and the offense will run smoother. Chesson caught three balls in this game, but they were on three consecutive plays. Where was he the rest of the game? I thought ND had trouble with a young secondary. Surely, Chesson or Darboh could have been used more extensively to exploit that weakness.

1A and 1B

* One running back averaged 4.3 yards per carry. The other running back averaged 1.9 yards per carry. So why is the former only getting 7 carries while the latter gets 13? Confirmation bias acknowledged, but I'm firmly in the De'Veon Smith camp after 2 games.

* To take it one step further, Hayes and Norfleet both averaged 10 yards a carry, but both only had 2 carries. It was as if Nussmeier thought, we've shown you this, we can't go back to it. But we kept going back to Green. It was Borgesian in it's incomprehensibility.

TFLs

* Both teams had 8 TFLs. Notre Dame was able to overcome theirs. That may be because our defense only picked up 31 yards on our 8 TFLs, while they gained 52 yards.

* Only three of our 8 TFLs given up occurred in the first half, so I don't think you can blame them for the 21-0 deficit. That's a positive, right?

* Of the 8, only 2 were accrued by the running backs. For all the complaining about the offensive line, at least we're getting a stalemate or better in the running game. The problem is in the passing game where blockers are inexplicably leaving interior defensive lineman free to get to the QB, and the QB is not utilizing his pressure relief valves, i.e., the running backs. Joe Kerridge had 1 reception for 4 yards, and that's it for the RBs. When a team is blitzing consistently, the screen game or the quick dumpoff must be utilized. Joe Kerridge had 1 reception for 4 yards, and that's it for the RBs. Yes, that merits repeating because I thought we were done with that crap when Borges left.

24 Points

* I looked up the quote. Here it is:


We always set the goal for our offense to score 24 points. We told our squad, the way we play football, no one will beat us if we score 24 points. Get 24, and we'll win. We'll worry about the defense.


* It's more offensive oriented than I thought, but I'm still using it for the defensive section. We gave up 31 points. We lost.

* I know I made mention of scuttling the star system, but we could have used a few of our stars on defense. Taylor got hurt early and ND proceeded to attack Countess repeatedly. Morgan didn't play. Bolden filled in with 10 tackles, but only 1 solo tackle. And there was no Peppers. And the nation wept.

* I've mentioned the dot categories before, those things that most players don't get so the boxscore is left with a bunch of dots. Forced fumbles, interceptions and the like. We had 1 pass breakup (hooray for press coverage? not so much) one sack, and two QHs. The defensive boxscore has tackles and all that other stuff. In the "all that other stuff" category, we laid an egg.

 

 

Comments

reshp1

September 7th, 2014 at 7:20 PM ^

Nice write up. I was working up the will to go re-watch the game and figure out how we managed to essentially match them in total yards but still get so utterly dominated on the scoreboard. You're eight plays sums it up. While those are bad and largely unforced, there does seem to be some slivers of positives offensively to take from this game going forward. I still think this team is a very talented team with some flaws. The flaws definitely dominated the talented part this game. 

massblue

September 7th, 2014 at 7:44 PM ^

Finally, someone else said the same thing that I said several times before and got neged to death. Fuck this legend business and this players number thing.  You are singling out a player for no reason at all. Take away all the legend numbers and give kids decals for actual plays on the field.  The reward system is totally screwed.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 7th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^

plays or points-of-inflection were decided by energy. Our guys seemed flat and ND seemed extra intense. As the lead built, they just ratchet it up.

I don't know what to make of it. The team lacked edge. UM looked soft. They need a little lesson from Bo.

Soulfire21

September 7th, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^

The more I think about the game, the more anomalous it sounds.  Outgained them, same number of TFLs, etc.

At least, that's what I'll choose to believe until we see chronic issues exposed over the next 2-3 games (which, hopefully not).

One thing that I was particularly disappointed with was not going no-huddle when ND was up 21-0.  When Nussmeier said he would be willing to change tempo to get done what we needed to get done, I was excited, but we didn't really see that yesterday and I would've liked to.

bronxblue

September 7th, 2014 at 9:58 PM ^

Great stuff, as usual.  I do think that Gardner focusing on Funchess is bad in general, but it's something most QBs do, especially when they are concerned about pressure and just want to get the ball out.  At this stage, Gardner has been through 3 OCs and, I don't know, I just want to give him a hug and let him throw the ball wherever his heart calls out for.

Erik_in_Dayton

September 7th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^

I usually hate that phrase, but much of the game came down to ND making big plays when it had to and Michigan not doing the same. It was an odd game in that way - a non-dominant domination. I worry that it speaks to a lack of attention to detail that I think you can argue is part of Coach Hoke's history at Michigan as of yet...Anyway, thanks for posting. You've captured last night's game.

maizenbluenc

September 8th, 2014 at 7:04 AM ^

who would you rather face after that loss? Bo or Brady?

Who do you think would be more capable of getting you to focus on the details like a well oiled machine?

The defense totally didn't show up to play. The side of the ball Hoke and Mattison coach. The side of the ball that all the pieces and depth are supposedly in place to be really special.

The Gardner-trying-to-force-things-to-happen-mistake-machine didn't get rolling until after the defense already lost the game.

Swayze Howell Sheen

September 8th, 2014 at 7:55 AM ^

i enjoyed it, particularly the IEEE spectrum reference.

You are right about the lack of energy -- it seems that while Hoke is a nice guy, he isn't able to perform one of the most basic tasks of a head football coach: getting his guys ready to play the game from a motivational standpoint. "We" often look flat.

 

remdog

September 8th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^

It was a bizarre game since it should have been a very close game except for an amazing confluence of every break going ND's way. After watching the game, I sat there wondering how the apparently competitive game ended up 31-0. A thoughtful analysis shows why. So it's best not to draw too many negative conclusions from such an outcome. Although your summary is on the spot, my key factors leading to the final score would be a little different:

#1. Losing the turnover battle 3-0 with unforced turnovers. (The 4th one wasn't meaningful.)
#2. Squandering 3 drives with 2 missed FG's and a decision to run on 3rd and 9 and then go for it on 4th and long.
#3. ND making full use of its scoring opportunities with a 4th and 3 conversion and long TD pass in the closing seconds of the first half.
#4. Lopsided officiating - 2 questionable PI's on Michigan resulted in a ND TD but zero PI's called on ND (including one on a key 3rd down Funchess "drop") and a strange "roughing the passer" call on Michigan aiding another drive.
#5. Gardner's helmet fumble/pass killing another drive

These add up to 12 plays which all went ND's way. I can't think of any random or chance factor that really went Michigan's way. The missed FG's, helmet fumble and squandered FG chance are essentially turnovers so Michigan lost the turnover battle 7-0.

Eliminating all of the above and balancing out the breaks, ND probably only scores 10 points while Michigan scores at least 9 points. And that's assuming Michigan doesn't do anything on it's four squandered drives. So it should have been a toss-up at the end if randomness was balanced out. But It wasn't all luck - Gardner needs to make better decisions, our kicker needs to make FG's, our defense needs to make key stops and our coaches need to up their play calling.