Big 10 Picks: Opening Weekend Edition

(Diarist Note: Um, Kinda long. Warning. And this was a hard slate of games to pick. Not sure about this)

The Big 10 season is officially underway. I think we're headed for a crazy, improbable league season. I could see something shake out like the ACC last year where a new contender emerges every week. I just think the power teams OSU and PSU  right now arent as good as last season. At least three teams chasing them already have showcased a significant upgrade at the QB position. While the best defense in the league may reside away from Columbus or State College for the first time in a couple of years. I could see both PSU and OSU with at least two league losses and tie breakers needed to separate three teams atop the standings a la 2000. I guess that's a long winded way of saying, I have no true idea what's going to happen in these games. So tread carefully following in my footsteps.

MICHIGAN STATE AT WISCONSIN, NOON, ESPN

LINES: WISCO -3, O/U 53.5

This game is tough to figure out. I think it is going to be a gas to watch. Both teams are equipped with some of my favorite skill position players in the league. Al Toon, David Gilreath and Jonathan Clay for the Badgers. Blair White, Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham for the Spartans. Both teams have fresh quarterbacks on the upswing that have improved the play at that position from a year ago.  These are two of the better offenses in the Big 10. It's going to be fun, close and marked by big offensive plays.

But, it's a nightmare to handicap.

In one corner, you have Michigan State coming in on back-to-back losses. Rule #47: Beware of Sparty on a losing streak. You never know when you're stepping in the middle of a tailspin. You dont want your money swept away in that. These are the first signs of a patented Sparty No season killing slide in the Dantonio Era. How will he have his team respond? They are also in a killer sandwich spot a week after losing a bitter heartbreaker to rival Notre Dame and a week before their own personal Armagedon game with Michigan. Way too many emotional question marks to take the Spartans, right? Maybe not. Because . . . . .

In this corner, we have the Wisconsin Badgers. Coached by Brett Bielema. Enough said. I could go on and on about some of the bizarre coaching moments Bielema and his coaching staff have brought us, but let's focus on the now. Their most talented offensive player is Jonathan Clay. Yet, earlier in the week Badgers coaches, notably OC Phil Chryst flat threw him under the bus all because he didn't like his reaction when informed he was finally starting a football game. Ok, whatever. It's your team, but why tell that tale to media, allowing them to write character assassination pieces? You dont beat Fresno without his game changing touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Maybe its better that he save his emotions until then? Just a thought. But, hey, if you think alienating your best player will light a fire under him, go for it. I guess declining wins for three years in a row cries out for new methods. Do what you have to do.

The Pick: Michigan State +3.......The Wisconsin coaches are selling their player out to the hack columnists. I cant get behind that. I could if I thought a quality head coach was behind the move, but that's just not the case. Dantonio might come off as a petulant grump at times, but I dont think he is in over his head the way Bielema is. Frankly, I dont sense the typical Sparty negativity that accompanies the familiar Green and White noise dive. Cousins looks good as a quarterback. How do we even know that Central and Notre Dame arent even better than Wisconsin? We dont, and in fact I think they are better in many ways. Wisconsin is an easier matchup for MSU's D than either of those squads, for example. I think Dantonio rallies the troops and gets the ship righted. Just in time for the Michigan game.

INDIANA AT MICHIGAN, NOON, ESPN2

LINES: MICHIGAN -205, 0/U 54

I have no credibility with any pick here. Last year, I sucked on Michigan games. I dont find it unacceptable that my team endured a rotten 3-9 season. I do find it UNACCEPTABLE that I didnt find a way to make any money off their historic collapse. There rests my 2008 sorrows.

Anyway, 2009 has obviously been a new year, not only for Michigan, but aslo their foe this week Indiana. The Hoosiers were downright awful last year. As Crimson Quarry John pointed out in yesterday's podcast last season was the least competitive season in Bloomington in a long, long time. But, IU is off to a nice 3-0 start and a win over Michigan would not only be historic, but also legitimize their bowl hopes. They have a nifty set of defensive ends, some playmaking ability in the secondary, an underrated stable of tailbacks and a big offensive line that will look to pummel Michigan's front while running out of the Pistol set.

We know what Michigan has. If Forcier keeps performing beyond his years, this offense will not be stopped by Indiana. The defense is shaky. We've been hoping for an injury free season, but we're going to the bench this week for safety help. Is that the first chink in the armour of the glorious 2009 ride? We'll find out.

This game will play out a lot like last weeks. Indiana's offensive line will block well enough against the smallish Michigan front to spring a few plays and move the ball down the field. Michigan's linebackers will be slow to react and Indiana will pick their way downfield and get a few scores. The last two Michigan foes tried and succeeded to a varying degree to run the football.  Indiana will try to pound away as well and carve out yards in the early going. QB Chappell, however, does not play very well on the move. I think Michigan's pass rush has a vintage day tomorrow.  That helps turn the tide in favor of Michigan's defense and eventually they'll get enough stops to enable the offense to roll to more points.

The Pick: Michigan -20.5, Over 53.....I dont think Indiana's defense has a shot here. I asked earlier in the week if Michigan could get the 38 points needed to maintain last season's scoring pace, but in half the games. I think they go Over that total. As for taking the total, I mentioned in the same column that the total has gon over in 10 of 15 games in the Rodriguez era. The way I see it, the over play is a hedge in case Indiana stays within the number. If they do, it wont be in a 20-16 game. No, instead it will be in a 45-31 game that gets us more freaked out about our defense than the Irish game did.

MINNESOTA AT NORTHWESTERN, NOON, BTN.

LINES: NW -1, O/U 49.5

I have watched a lot of both these teams this season thanks to the magic of DVR. I reviewed both of them play Syracuse. I caught NW playing Eastern as well as the other two games on Minnesota's slate against Air Force and Cal. From what I've seen, the Gophers are the better team. I'd have zero issue taking them to win this one on a nuetral field. On the road? In this case, yes, as I dont think the Wildcats have a real strong home field advantage. Not to mention with Minnesota now playing home games outdoors and on grass, there are no longer any worries about the dome team going outside anymore. At least that's what I have convinced myself.

I like both QBs in this game. Unlike some of the grumbling fan base, I am a fan of Gopher QB Adam Weber. He is an improved passer, but this season he has better weapons around him.  Mostly, this statement is supported by the presence of Erik Decker, who is not only a big time playmaker, but pound for pound the toughest WR in the league. The Cats could not contain Syracuse's passing attack, so you have to expect Weber and Decker to do a lot of damage. Unlike last year, however, there is more to the receving corps than Decker. I have liked the way Weber has spread it around in recent weeks and guys like Brandon Green and TroyStoudermire have added elements to the passing attack that demand attention away from Decker. And they've been delivering big time plays even if Decker still gets more than twice as many catches. Cal had a hard time keeping the Gophers from sustaining drives and checking this passing game. I think they can keep that up against a defense shredded by Greg Paulus.

I also like Minny's defense better. They are not a shut down unit, but they did an ok job getting penetration up front and some pressure on Cal. And, they appear to have that big play turnover mojo from last year still rocking. Kafka for NW will do some damage, and he killed the Gophers last year.  But, in the end, I see Gohper LB Simoni Lawrence forcing a key turnover late, that if not returned for a score, will at least set up Minnesota for a swing score paving the way to a win.

The PICK: Minny +1.......the last two years have seen the Cats win dramatic contests in overtime and in the final seconds of regulation. Nothing is ever due in the sports world, but I think the karma in this series evens out a bit Saturday. A week after playing fast, athletic Cal, the Gophers will, as a result, be a step ahead of Northwestern all day. I am beginning to think the Gophers are improved from last season, while the Cats are not. We'll see.

ILLINOIS AT OHIO STATE, 3:30, ABC

LINES: OSU -14, O/U 49.5

I am intrigued by this game if for no other reason to see what kind of Illinois team will emerge. Its been three weeks since we've seen them take on a team with a pulse when they were routed by a Missouri team that might be much better than a lot of us thought. Since then, however, they've endured a funcional DNP play against a lowly FCS school, a bye week giving them two weeks off in advance of this game.

They've basically been able to run a second summer camp and work on the issues that plagued them in the opener. Of course, that begats the question of is having all that extra prep time a good thing when your coach is Ron Zook? The Zooker takes a lot of heat, but I think this will be a good development for a team many pegged as a Big 10 darkhorse.  I think they come out more focused and ready than the opener and give the Bucks a decent game.

Throughout last year, Ohio State looked a little clunky, especially in front of their home crowd. Despite last week's curbstomp of Toledo, I still wonder about this team as heavy chalk. Do they have the offense to cover big spreads? Will the line be consistent enough? Will Tressel let the team stretch its legs and by that I mean let Pryor loose?  They are only 4-10 ATS as a favorite at the Shoe the last two plus seasons. Ever since Troy Smith left town, the Bucks have mastered and showcased the art of slogging through boring games, keeping things close and forcing audible grumbles from the home crowd. I see that trend continuing tomorrow.

THE PICK: Illinois +15.....The Buckeyes settle for one too many field goals and their bugaboos with running quarterbacks give Illinois enough offense to stay within the number. OSU wins, but does not cover, 30-17.

NOTRE DAME AT PURDUE, 8:00, ESPN

LINES:  ND -8, O/U 59.5

I dont trust either of these teams. Purdue has been terrible over the years against teams that eventually qualify for a bowl.  Notre Dame's defense has been schooled by Big 10 offenses in consecutive weeks. I could see this playing out like either of the games these teams played in Brady Quinn's junior and seniors seasons when the Irish when they averaged 42 points per game. But, I could also see the improved Purdue offense lighting up Notre Dame the way they did to Toledo and Oregon. They have played ND tough over the years at Ross Ade Stadium.

The Pick: Over 59.5.........taking the easy way out and cheering for points. The loser in the ND and Purdue games this season have scored just over 21 points per game, but thats with that goose egg an awful and one dimensional Nevada team put up against ND in the opener. Whoever losses this game will beat that number by a touchdown.

IOWA AT PENN STATE, 3:30, ABC

LINES: PSU -10, O/U 40.5

Penn State defies the notion there is no preseason football in the college game. After all, what else would you classify their non conference slate and the manner in which they played those games. The Nittany Lions lined up Akron, Temple and Syracuse (these teams are 41-102 the last four seasons combined) and exercised controlled scrimmages in each contest. We learned absolutely nothing about Penn State, despite their 23-point average margin of victory in those games. They didnt cover the spread in any of those games and just scored 13 total second half points. Paterno could have named the score in any of those contests. Penn State appeared to treat each game like a live practice, getting reps on the field for the young  and/or green talent replacing some big time veterans lost to graduation.

Is Penn State ready for live football? Are they ready to play four quarters of it?  Personally, I doubt it. Penn State might be one of the most overrated teams out there right now. No team has done as little to deserve their top-10 ranking. Now they enter their toughest game of the season to date without a star defensive player and a depleted linebacker corps.

I still wonder how they're going to be offensively in a big game without those glitzy wideouts they've had the last four seasons. Do I trust Jay Paterno to call a game without the crutch of Derek Williams to lean on? Um, No. Don't forget in the fateful game with Iowa last year, Williams threw for a key first down on what looked to be the game clinching drive. A few plays later QB Darryl Clark threw a game changing interception. The scoring drives in the critical showdown with OSU were fueled by runs, direct snaps, throws and catches from Williams. In my mind, he is the hardest player to replace in the Big 10 this year, and I remain both curious and dubious that Penn State has shown they can do that when playing teams their size.

Their reshuffled offensive line has struggled to get a push so far this season. The running attack broke out a bit last week, but has been rather stagnant during the early season. Sixteen games into his career, I still doubt Clark. He has yet to make a successful big, money throw in a big spot. Like I said above, if you rewatch PSU games from a year ago, you would be taken aback at how often Williams had the ball in his hands in the game's bigger moments.

Iowa will push them fully to the limit tomorrow. Iowa has already been through a lot this season. They escaped an embarassing loss by blocking kicks on the final two plays against Northern Iowa in one of the goofiest endings we've seen in a while. Since then, they've trounced rival Iowa State and throttled Arizona, a Pac 10 Bowl winner from a year ago. The Hawks dominated them along the lines of scrimmage and won the game going away. They've had a lot of injuries on the offensive line, including an illness to their best blocker Bryan Bugula. But, Iowa's makeshift offensive line performed well against Arizona and, for comparison,  has been better against better competition than PSU's reshuffled front five this season. The Hawks have played rotating tailback thanks to more injuries, but have run the football well in consecutive weeks and might have found their future go to guy in Adam Robinson. I think their running game can hammer away a bit at PSU tomorrow and keep them just off balance enough to allow Stanzi a chance at an efficient passing attack. They are rumblings too that Derrell Johnson-Koulianos will play after being out with an ankle injury and his addition to the game would obviously only make me like Iowa more.

Penn State's defense will be tough to penetrate. But so too will the Hawks. You can make a case they're the best defense in the Big 10 right now. They have playmakers rolling at all three levels. I think this defensive line will beat PSU at the point of attack. The Hawks are good in coverage and if the faster Arizona wideouts could not create separation and open looks, I doubt the green WR corps from PSU, in their first real test, will find a lot of room to move either. Clark could have enough in him to finally be the reason his team wins a big game, but I just dont think from top to bottom that this is an elite PSU team and one that can just roll to a double digit win over one of the better teams in the league.

THE PICK: Iowa +10........I dont expect the Hawks to pull out the win, but this game is going all the way down to the end. Just like last year. Penn State is not as good this season as they were last year, its just that people have not figured it out yet. Frankly, Iowa played a better and faster defense last week against Arizona, particularily in the secondary, and put together an efficient, effective and winning  game. I would be shocked if they dont acquit themselves well. Ferentz has had the upper hand against Joe Pa in recent years, and I expect that to continue somewhat in a low scoring, 23-20 type of game.

Holy crap was I long winded with this one. Sorry. Hopefully the long read is worth it and these seven games give us more winners than losers.  So the two Big 10 columns (here and here) during out of conference season netted a 10-3 record. Lets keep building.