2017 Class Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V1.0

Submitted by alum96 on

tl;dr - below is a list of potential commits sorted by position (not yet), per 247's warm interest indicator.  Just go to the charts if you hate prose.

I'll probably stick this in diaries this year until we get late in the cycle since it gets pushed off front page pretty quick on the main board.

I put one of these up once a month for the 2016 class thru the end of 2015 and then we got crazy (had subs) and started rolling out swim lanes every few weeks (days!) in 2016 since we had an idea of positions of need by that point.  This early we abandon lanes and it's just a big pool of best players available and interested.

What is this?

A winnowing tool of realistic prospects utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge.  All caveats, warnings, and wag of the fingers about this methodology can be found in earlier versions.  This helps me focus on guys UM has at least a modicum of chance at rather than trying to plow through 200 names that come up randomly over time.

Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the V1.0 so I'll copy/paste that here:

The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes. 

Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not. 

It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished.

 

Tracking 2017

Michigan currently has 238 (!!!!) offers out for 2017.  So this winnows it down to under 50.  Being realistic as we watched the 2016 class unfold probably 1/3rd to 1/2 of players in the eventual 2017 class won't even be on this list so early in the cycle!

With Strobel leaving we have 19 scholarships available for 2017 at this time.  I expect that # to get to mid 20s by the time all is said and done.

For now I will just sort it by national rank - later in the year I'll sort it by positions.   I also added a column for HS for those in states we are familiar with (OH/MI) or specific FL schools we are becoming familiar with ala IMG & Flanagan. 

I've also added a mini swim lanes at the bottom for the 3 positions this class has critical needs to have top end guys - OT, DT, and S.  I'd also put LB as a very important need in this class but a bit below these top 3 - we got a bevy of LBs in 2016 but most are more "developmental" types... it lacked the top 200 type guys ala Dontavious Jackson so I am hoping to see some of those in 2017.

I've bolded the player that 247 has designated as "warmest" i.e. the love between school and player seems the strongest.   At bottom I have flip candidates I am aware of (only 1 thus far) and then I put Ambry Thomas in his own category - while 247 has him as a warm interest I don't see him going anywhere but MSU at this point so I have doubt about any warmth there.

Image result for the list

Pos Name State Starz Ntl Rnk Pos Rnk  
DT Marvin Wilson TX 5 5 1  
WR/DB Jeffrey Okudah TX 5 8 1 1/2 -Top 10
ATH Donovan Peoples-Jones MI 5 10 1 Cass Tech
OT Isaiah Wilson NY 5 16 5  
DE Joshua Kaindoh FL 5 20 1 IMG
DE Jarez Parks FL 5 21 2  
WR Joseph Lewis CA 5 22 4  
RB D'Andre Swift PA 5 26 1  
OT Wyatt Davis CA 5 24 6  
RB Anthony McFarland Jr MD 4 30 2  
CB Stanford Samuels FL 4 34 4 Flanagan
OT Tedarrell Slaton FL 4 38 7 Heritage
QB Dylan McCaffrey CO 4 46 2  
WR Nico Collins AL 4 54 11  
CB Lamont Wade PA 4 58 6  
OT Austin Deculus TX 4 68 11  
WR Tarik Black CT 4 89 15  
QB David Mills GA 4 98 6  
S Chaz Ah You UT 4 103 9  
ATH Nathan Tilford CA 4 110 10  
DT Fred Hansard NJ 4 111 6  
RB Jordan Anthony FL 4 112 9 IMG
LB Josh Ross MI 4 144 5 St Mary's
LB Drew Singleton NJ 4 152 10 Paramus
OT Robert Hainsey FL 4 169 27 IMG
ATH Josh Falo CA 4 184 18  
DE Corey Malone-Hatcher MI 4 186 10 St Joseph
CB Jaylon Redd CA 4 210 19  
DT Corey Bolds NJ 4 218 13 Paramus
ATH Lynn Bowden OH 4 219 23 Harding
RB Adarius Lemons FL 4 229 19  
WR J.T. Cauthen NC 4 246 35  
TE Jimmy Jaggers CA 4 249 7  
S Jaylen Kelly-Powell MI 4 286 23 Cass Tech
TE Matt Dotson OH 4 306 10 Moeller
WR KJ Hamler MI 3 320 47 St Mary's
RB Allen Stritzinger MI 3 338 25 De La Salle
RB Bo Melton NJ 3 378 29  
OT Kai-Leon Herbert FL 3 391 47 Heritage
WR Leroy Henley FL 3 464 72  
RB Chase Hayden TN 3 478 37  
CB Meshael Custis GA 3 504 43  
WR Clevan Thomas FL 3 605 93 Flanagan
S Scott Nelson MI 3 710 55 UD
             
Potential Flips            
Pos Name State Starz Ntl Rnk Pos Rnk  
S Jaquan Henderson GA 3 368 30 Newton
             
Meh            
CB Ambry Thomas MI 4 134 12 King

 

Image result for swim lanes

Here are the mini swim lanes for the 3 key urgent position groups - this is how the above list will be formatted maybe by late summer after we get a bunch of commitments.

  Mini Swim Lanes          
             
Pos Name State Starz Ntl Rnk Pos Rnk  
OT Isaiah Wilson NY 5 16 5  
OT Wyatt Davis CA 5 24 6  
OT Tedarrell Slaton FL 4 38 7 Heritage
OT Austin Deculus TX 4 68 11  
OT Robert Hainsey FL 4 169 27 IMG
OT Kai-Leon Herbert FL 3 391 47 Heritage
             
DT Marvin Wilson TX 5 5 1  
DT Fred Hansard NJ 4 111 6  
DT Corey Bolds NJ 4 218 13 Paramus
             
S Chaz Ah You UT 4 103 9  
S Jaylen Kelly-Powell MI 4 286 23 Cass Tech
S Jaquan Henderson GA 3 368 30 Newton
S Scott Nelson MI 3 710 55 UD

 

Quick items to note

  • A lot more MI players in 2017 than 2016.
  • Still a lot of trouble finding love in OH - probably for same issues as recent past.   OH is not "must have" but certainly getting 3-4 kids out of there a year would hurt Meyer and help us.
  • FL is the new NJ.  Bush Sr taking over Patridge role would confirm this if and when...
  • Give me Wilson and Slaton today and let's call it a day at OT.  Ok we probably need a 3rd in this class to bump up the depth chart.  But I'm happy to start with these 2.  Wilson has been outwardly in love with UM for months so let us wish that this is not a Jonathan Jones type situation where we "lead" for a year until the last 30 days.
  • Heritage HS in FL has 2 top 400 players on its line (both tackles) incl a top 50 player.  That seems unfair.
  • McCafferty some say UM leads - but 247 has not come to the level they give him a "warmest" (i.e. bold) designation.  QBs tend to fall early so we should know in a few months.

Comments

rowtheblue

February 4th, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^

alum96, I hope you enjoy your invitation to SotS next year, because dammit you deserve it.

It's very cool to see quite a few targets from Michigan. It seems this year there are more top targets than most. Maybe I'm missing something (or 247 just isn't reflecting it) but wasn't Ruiz (Center out of IMG) interested in Michigan?

 

 

Benshapgoblue

February 4th, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^

Lynn and I are friends and I'm pleastantly surprised you included him... If his interest in michigan grows enough to take a visit or he tells me they are up there, I'll update. Besides, great post!

Blue_In_Texas

February 4th, 2016 at 6:55 PM ^

Couple things I wonder/notice:

1. Wonder if there are any highly-rated guys at Prattville, as we just hired a coach from there. 

2. It would be very nice to clean up the in-state guys, specifically DPJ, and reaffirm that the best guys from Michigan play at Michigan. 

3. It would be nice to have Hall come in as an EE, as we need players there desperately. 

4. Recruiting is so fun now :D. 

alum96

February 4th, 2016 at 8:29 PM ^

For item 1 I posted it on the thread for Prattville coach - its not really a hotbed of talent.

In 2016 they had three 3* - UM got 2 of them

In 2015 they had two 3* - UM got 1 of them

In 2014 they had one 3*

I did not look further back - they didnt have any 4/5* in that time.  I think Prattville was just a school that was fine with Jim coming down there as they were not worried about pissing off the SEC.  But it is not Flanagan or IMG or Glenville or DLS etc.

For item 2 if you drink everytime there is a comment "DPJ is a must get" in the next 12 months you will be dead.

For item 2, I'd like two OTs in early - and I'd like Hall to be the lowest rated!  Hoping Wilson is not one of those who drags his feet for 12 months - he spews stuff about UM like its the best thing on planet earth. 

FLwolvfan22

February 4th, 2016 at 8:30 PM ^

Didn't we already offer like 5 or 6?

Love those Cali and Florida guys and we'll get some but Texas is a lnog shot. I'd rather lock up a nice Ohio 4 star then sit and worry about a Texas 5* flaking at the last minute to go to Baylor or UT or A&M.

alum96

February 4th, 2016 at 8:37 PM ^

Oh we have plenty more offers out to OH kids.  This list just culls it down to guys the 247 staff thinks have a reciprocal interest of some sort - even modest - to UM. 

For me it is sort of sad growing up in an era we got Desmond Woodson et al from OH to see it so barren.  Even ND got 2 of their top 8 last year.  And with Urban coming up here and taking 1-2 of MI's top 5 almost annually now I'd like to return the damn favor.

We just have some mindshare to change in OH - every kid who is 16-17 know only knows massive success for OSU and UM basically being Minnesota since 2007 other than 2011.  That is their whole childhood and teenage years.

I think it was smart not to focus too much on OH for the 2016 kids since these relationships are often 2 years in the making and we were way behind but 2017 forward is time to start making inroads again.

osufancomesinpeace

February 4th, 2016 at 9:33 PM ^

Hope you all don't mind me chiming from enemy territory.

Relatively speaking, 2017 is probably a bit below average to its usual standards. For example, there is only two players from Ohio currently in the 247 Composite top 100. That's low. Generally we have around four to six. Hell, only three guys in the top 150.

There's very good depth in the class, which there usually always is. That depth has been key to Dantonio's success and was instrumental to the Tressel years, but as I mentioned, that top quartile of talent is a little weak this year. At least so far. Things can certainly change. 

It actually ends up not being the worst thing in the world for us. We're likely going to have a pretty small class this year and our early focus is very national, but from your end, it might explain why there's not much action in Ohio for 2017.

alum96

February 4th, 2016 at 10:26 PM ^

Yeah I don't think you have too much to worry about - I looked at your class about a month ago and it's pretty ridiculous already.  If it's a "small class" of say 20 you already are half full, and you have the #3 and #12 players in the country already locked down and then another 3 of the top 100.  I mean 5 of the top 100 before 2017 recruiting even gets serious... that's pretty ridiculous.  2 of those from OH of course incl Josh Myers.

The only guy of your 10 that is not in the top 250 nationally is a kicker.  I think you guys will be ok.

/plays sad violin song

p.s. did your QB really commit in 2013?  That's boggling for a 2017 player.

osufancomesinpeace

February 5th, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^

Thanks. It's definitely has the potential to be a great class, but getting to 20 will be a challenge. We only have seven scholarship kids graduating this year, so there will have to some attrittion with kids declaring for the draft, transferring, medical hardships, etc... We also have some kids that are pretty much locks: Trevon Grims (top receiver in the country), Lamont Wade, and Jaylen Harris, to name a few.

Also, Shaun Wade, the #12 player in the country, is by no means locked down. Its going to be an absolute dogfight to keep him and the odds might be against us. 

Yes, Danny Clark has been committed to us since 2013 after his freshman year of high school. He was widely regarded as the best QB of that class when he committed. That said, he took a stepback his sophomore year, and while he made nice strides as a junior, he's certainly not as ballyhoed as he initially was when he committed. 

There is definitely going to be some good OSU/Michigan battles this year with guys like Fred Hansard, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Jaylen Kelly-Powell. Should be fun.

bdneely4

February 5th, 2016 at 9:36 AM ^

is the only thing that is going to change that IMO.  OSU has the perfect pitch for the last decade and a half.  "You want to go play for a school that is not as good as your home state school."  It makes me sick thinking about how few wins we have had against them, but it starts on the field if we want to keep Michigan players from going there and getting Ohio players to come here.

FLwolvfan22

February 5th, 2016 at 8:52 PM ^

May not even happen this year, I hope it does but realistically you have to give Michigan 3 years of strong building, teaching, and recruiting before we can make up for that 8 year richrod/hoke period, last year of Carr it was already trailing way off. Agree also most of these Ohio kids are too young to even remember a competitive Michigan that had swagger. Have to start from scratch.

Mr. Yost

February 5th, 2016 at 5:07 AM ^

Yes, I did this this to make you "sigh." Yes, I did this to stash this year for future usage. Yes, I have insomnia and it sucks #SadFace.
  1. Someone said the other day we didn't need WRs in this class - that person was wrong. We don't need a ton, but DPJ is a must and we'll need another big possession type WR.
  2. That OT position makes me want to vomit (or the lack of sleep) - we need Wilson and Slaton to go with Hall.
  3. Umm...yea, we're going to need some DTs in this class.
  4. I'm going to go out on a limb and say CB is a must. The fact that we could easily start start Long and Hill in 2017 is scary. The only other option right now is Washington - who we haven't seen. We especially need some bigger CBs.
  5. Yes, I'm praying for another year of Peppers. We're awful at safety. I'm not ready to move Peppers to a true S spot because he's so good where he plays and he wasn't the best in coverage. If/When he moves, it'll be to replace Delano Hill at SS.

 

QB

1. John O'Korn (RS Sr.)

2. Wilton Speight (RS Jr.) / Alex Malzone (RS So.) / Brandon Peters (RS Fr.)

RB

1. Ty Isaac (RS Sr.)

2. Karan Higdon (So.) / Kareem Walker (Fr.)

4. Kingston Davis (RS Fr.)

FB / H-Back

1. Henry Poggi (RS Sr.)

2. Wyatt Shallman (RS Sr.)

3. Devin Asiasi (So.)

WR1

1. Drake Harris (RS Jr.)

2. Ahmir Mitchell (So.) or Brad Hawkins (So.)*

WR2

1. Maurice Ways (RS Jr.) / Kekoa Crawford (So.)

SLOT

1. Grant Perry (Jr.) / Eddie McDoom (So.) / Nate Johnson (So.)

4. Chris Evans (RS Fr.)

TE1

1.  Ian Bunting (RS Jr.)

2. Zach Gentry (RS So.)

3. Sean McKeon (RS Fr.) / Nick Eubanks (RS Fr.)

TE2

1. Khalid Hill (RS Sr.) / Tyrone Wheatley Jr. (RS So.) / Devin Asiasi (So.)

LT

1. Grant Newsome (Jr.)

2. Nolan Ulizio (RS So.)

LG

1. David Dawson (RS Sr.)

2. Stephen Spanellis (RS Fr.)

C

1. Mason Cole (Sr.)

2. Jon Runyan Jr. (RS So.)

RG

1. Juwan Bushell-Beatty (RS Jr.) / Michael Onwenu (RS Fr.)

2. Michael Onwenu (RS Fr.) / Juwan Bushell-Beatty (RS Jr.)

RT

1. Ben Bredeson (RS Fr.)

2. Nolan Ulizio (RS So.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

WDE

1.  Lawrence Marshall (RS Jr.) / Shelton Johnson (RS So.) / Carlo Kemp (RS Fr.)

DT

1. Bryan Mone (RS Jr.)

2. Brady Pallante (RS Jr.) / Michael Dwumfour (RS Fr.)

DT

1. Maurice Hurst (RS Sr.)

DE

1. Rashan Gary (So.)

2. Ron Johnson (RS Fr.)

WLB

1. Jared Wangler (RS Jr.) / Josh Uche (RS Fr.)

2. Devin Gil (RS Fr.)

MLB

1. Devin Bush Jr. (So.)

2. Elysee Mbem-Bosse (RS Fr.)

3. Dytarious Johnson (RS Fr.)

SLB

1. Noah Furbush (RS Jr.) / Reuben Jones (RS So.)

3. Chase Winovich (RS Jr.)

WCB

1. David Long (So.)

2. Freddy Canteen (Sr.) / Chris Evans (RS Fr.)

SCB

1. Lavert Hill (RS Fr.)

2. Keith Washington (RS So.) / Brandon Watson (RS Jr.)

FS

1. Tyree Kinnel (Jr.)

2. Josh Metellus (RS Fr.)

SS

1. Jabrill Peppers (RS Jr.)

2. Khaleke Hudson (RS Fr.) / Ahmir Mitchell (So.) or Brad Hawkins (So.)*

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

K

1. Quinn Nordin (RS Fr.)

2. Andrew David (RS So.)

P

1. Andrew David (RS Fr.)

KO

1. Quinn Nordin (RS Fr.)

2. Andrew David (RS So.)

*I have either Mitchell or Hawkins at WR and the other at S

Mr. Yost

February 5th, 2016 at 5:15 AM ^

That's 6-12 guys who are currently in high school that could be starting in 2017. And about half of them don't have slashes next to their names. Sure one is Gary and another is Nordin, but still. The OL, the LBs, the CBs.

God, please bless us with grad transfers.

alum96

February 5th, 2016 at 11:34 AM ^

You still have Brandon Watson as a CB candidate and I guess if Freddy Canteen is still on the team at that time he could be another one.  Obviously we wanted Antwaine Richardson so that was one miss we have to monitor - some good size even if lower rated.

Safety actually scares me more because right now with Cole jettisoned its Ty Kinnel and .... 2016 guys.  Even this year safety scares me - people are overlooking the loss of Wilson and the fact injuries happen.  One injury to safety and you probably are talking Ty Kinnel and Hill/Thomas.  2 injuries and it could be Ty Kinnel and Hudson.  I mean we lack depth badly there. Young safeties are usually not ideal as one mental error and you have a TD given up.

Same issue with DT in 2017.  I assume Gary goes inside in 2017 and we have 3 but Pallante might be a FB or a "break in case of fire" type option and you want your DTs to have some age on them if they are not Gary or McDowell level.  But 1 injury to Mone, Hurst, or Gary and you are rolling out RS FR Dwumfour or true freshman in 2017.

2017 is going to be a year I just chalk up to development and double digit wins to me would be a bonus.  Then 2018 hopefully we push for a playoff spot again.  But we have to make hay in 2016 - and where the injuries hit are very very important.  We actually had most of injuries in 2015 exactly where we had depth - RB and DL.  So that was fortunate until we had like 3 DL injuries piled up.

Yeah some guy has been warning about the young defense since 13 months ago ;)

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/young-defense-2017-fb

Mr. Yost

February 6th, 2016 at 8:41 AM ^

I put Watson as a CB in the way. Clark is a CB.

Really I think he's a Peppers NB. Which makes him a S. But I ran out of bodies.

I disagree on this year. In your scenario...why not just put Clark at S and leave Lewis and Strib at CB?

We have 6 DBs this year who we KNOW can play. In that situation you just got Lewis, Strib...then Peppers stays at NB...Clark and the healthy Thomas/Hill at safety.

bdneely4

February 5th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^

I think Walker either needs to be a Sophomore or RS Fr depending upon what you are anticipating this year.  We have some scary position groups with limited experience at them, so hopefully we can overcome some of that inexperience this year.

Padog

February 7th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^

I'm very confident that this will become clearer in the next few months. Between early enrollees like Carlo Kemp and Devin Bush, and some studs in this freshman class, talent will not be an issue. If we pull in a top 10 class next year, I think we are looking at 8-4 as the floor since we have OSU and MSU at home.




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