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mel pearson
brendan brisson
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Lotta celebrating going on so far this year [MG Campredon]

Yea, this Michigan Hockey team is a national title favorite Comment Count

Alex.Drain October 18th, 2021 at 2:37 PM

Last season, Michigan Hockey had a few issues that held the team back from being a Death Star that easily marched to a conference/national title, instead limiting them to a merely quite good fringe top 10 team. One of those problems was consistency, as the team had a rather maddening tendency to bodyslam an opponent on Friday night, just to look like a car running out of gas on Saturday, in the process splitting with teams they should've swept. Another problem was struggling to excel in the first half of the season, limping through late November and December, before turning it on in mid-January. 

The need to rectify those issues was something that David and I talked about on the season preview HockeyCast a few weeks back, and we knew Michigan would get an opportunity to test their progress on both areas early in the season. With a trip to Duluth on the schedule, where the Wolverines would see a pair of top five teams in Minnesota-Duluth and (as it turned out) Minnesota State, a chance for Michigan to prove themselves to the rather skeptical college hockey community loomed. Moreover, it would be a litmus test of where the Maize & Blue are within the broader NCAA landscape.

With the weekend under our belt, I feel pretty good in saying that Michigan has done what was needed to prove their doubters wrong. First they knocked off #5 Duluth by a score of 5-1 on Friday, before toppling the #1 Mavericks on Saturday 3-2 to win the Ice Breaker Tournament, taking home a piece of hardware. Through four regular season games, Michigan is 4-0, with a +13 goal differential. Add in the exhibition against BGSU, and they're 5-0 with a +19 goal differential. They were ranked #1 in the country today by the USCHO voters and I concur. This Michigan team is a national title favorite and let's run through a quick assortment of HockeyBullets to explain why: 

 

Bullets 

The offense is elite. I feel like we've seen enough games to already get the point that, as expected, a top six forward group lined with first round picks produces a monstrous offense. They scored three goals on Saturday against the nation's best goaltender (Dryden McKay), and that brought down their offensive metrics significantly. Through four games, the Wolverines are scoring just a shade over 5 goals per game. Extend it out to include the exhibition game, and you're at 5.6 goals per game. They've hung 7, 6, 7, 5, and 3 on their opponents. The power play is firing at 50% (!). They have two top tier scoring lines (the Bordeleau line and the Beniers line) and have skilled offensive defensemen on all three defensive pairs. There are lethal shooters (Brisson, Samoskevich, Blankenburg, Pastujov), incredible passers (Johnson, Bordeleau), speed (Morgan, Lambert, Beniers, Hughes, Blankenburg), and oh yeah, plenty of skill. 

The goals they've scored this season through just a handful of games are downright pornographic: 

The offense had a lot of skill last season, but replacing York with Luke Hughes, Jay Keranen's spot with Ethan Edwards, and swapping out the Jack Becker and Dakota Raabe types with Mackie Samoskevich and Dylan Duke has raised the offensive ceiling. Not to mention the maturity and growth from players like Brendan Brisson who now have a year of NCAA experience under their belt as sophomores. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Some more takeaways]

Brendan Brisson is on fire [MG Campredon]

Out talent-ing teams. This was my takeaway on Friday night. I thought that Duluth didn't play poorly, and I feel pretty good in projecting that they will be a good team this season. Yet Michigan crushed them and put the game out of reach with 15 minutes to go in the contest, mostly by having faster and more talented players than the Bulldogs. The speed of Michigan's team allowed them to dominate in transition and wear down UMD athletically, which meant the Wolverines could just grind out the clock by dominating possession off the cycle in the third. Duluth was gassed. And the goals Michigan scored, like that above Brisson between-the-legs one, is stuff you don't expect NCAA teams to do with regularity. Michigan probably has the talent to make that sort of thing a weekly occurrence. 

It also popped up on Saturday in knocking off Minnesota State. Michigan's first two goals were standard events, a blast on the PP and a redirection, but when it came time to pull out a game against an elite opponent, the Wolverines again leaned on their high skill playmakers to make plays, and that's what happened: 

That's an NHL-caliber passer making a pass to an NHL-caliber shooter to beat an elite NCAA goaltender. That's how Michigan will beat you this year. 

Style of play? Not bananas. After Michigan trotted out a 1980s style firewagon approach to playing the sport against Lake State last week, there was a good bit of question as to whether they'd try to play that way again this weekend against higher end competition. The verdict? No. Michigan put the fun, wild stuff back in the garage and played much more focused defense. The result was a stronger defensive effort that suppressed chances well. Like all teams in big games, they relied on their goalie to pick up the tab occasionally, but there was no trading of odd-man rushes like we saw in week one against the Lakers. I would expect that the way they played in Duluth to be the approach against Minnesota, ND, and UMass down the line. 

Our #1 center [Campredon]

Brisson & Bordeleau are 1A. This is no disrespect to the Beniers, Johnson, and Samoskevich line, who are playing just fine, but Bordeleau and Brisson (joined this weekend by Mike Pastujov) are Michigan's 1st line right now. Those two are playing at an exceptionally high level that, if it continues, will make both of the headliners strong Hobey contenders. Through four games, Bordeleau has 7 points. Brisson also has 7 points, including a whopping 5 goals. Pastujov has 3 himself and I thought he had a strong defensive weekend, which provides a good complementary skill and a veteran presence to complete the line. They made the play to beat the #1 team in the country on Saturday and so long as they continue scoring at this pace, that affirms their place atop the line chart. 

Bordeleau mostly looks like the same guy who was All-B1G last year (not too shabby), but Brisson looks to have made The Leap. His one-timer is starting to become the NCAA equivalent of an Auston Matthews-like dagger on the PP, but what has really impressed me is the uptick in speed and skill. Brisson looks faster, more engaged in the play, and he's flashed his hands on more than just the highlight reel goal. He's gone from riding in Bordeleau's side-car to playing a big role in driving the line himself. 

Erik Portillo just went toe-to-toe with the best goalie in college hockey. As I said in the season preview, having to start a goalie with only seven career games of NCAA experience was the biggest factor that could derail a potential dream season for Michigan, especially after losing the stability that Strauss Mann provided between the pipes. Portillo has passed all the tests for me, currently boasting a 2.00 GAA and a .929 SV%. Michigan got out of the gates rather slowly on Friday, and it was Portillo who held them in that one early. Then on Saturday he was every bit as good as the fearsome Dryden McKay, who is the odds-on favorite to win the Richter Award as the best goalie in college hockey. Neither guy was really blitzed, but both made a few Grade A saves, and that's what Michigan needed to beat the Mavs. Any time you play Minnesota State and you aren't at a clear disadvantage in terms of goalie play, that's a massive win. 

We're now 11 games into Portillo's NCAA career and he's sporting a 1.80 GAA and a SV% of .933. That may be a tiny hair below what Mann was in 2020 and 2021, but we're splitting hairs here. So far, goaltending is not a weakness at all with Portillo in net. The only change I'd like to see from him moving forward is to maybe cut down on this: 

Erik Portillo: Rock solid [Campredon]

The lineup has an old setting and a young setting. Michigan seems to have two different lineup combinations, one that trots out some older pieces, and one that is heavier on the youth and talent. The Wolverines tried out the old guys on Friday: 

And then on Saturday they made a few changes and put this lineup out there: 

I think the Saturday lineup is the better alignment, because I'd rather have Duke and Edwards in, and Mark Estapa has looked like a fine fit on the fourth line so far. The only tweak I'd make: putting in Keaton Pehrson on the third pair instead of Jack Summers. Yes, Summers gives you passing ability from the back-end that can stretch the ice vertically, but the turnovers and defensive lapses, both of which reared their ugly head on Saturday, are too much for me to stomach when you have a steadier option on the bench. Pehrson probably isn't going to forget where he is on the ice like this: 

Moreover, Summers passing skill has low marginal value when you already have four other good passing defensemen in the lineup when Edwards starts. 

Consistency looks improved, so far. No signs of the second night drop-off yet this year. Michigan had a bad stretch in the Saturday game against Lake State but rebounded and put the game away by the time there were 10 minutes remaining in the third. Then on Saturday night against Minnesota State, Michigan was just as sharp as they were the night before, a crisp and consistent effort through all 60 minutes. This could be a famous last words instance, but I'm being careful to say "so far" right now. Two Saturday contests, and two fine performances. We'll see if it continues. 

Happening on both nights this year [Campredon]

Referees? Wasn't a big fan. Michigan got a 5-minute PP on Friday after the major to Noah Cates for a dirty hit on Nick Blankenburg, but then got just one other instance with the man-advantage (coming once the game was basically over). Meanwhile, Duluth got 5 PP's. Then on Saturday Minnesota State got 5 PP's, while Michigan got 2. Was Michigan really that much more undisciplined than their opponents? Didn't really feel like it to me, if we're being honest. A lot of borderline calls seemed to go against the Wolverines and there's not much you can really do about that. Sometimes the coin flip doesn't go your way ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  

Tweet of the weekend: 

Minnesota State is the kind of team Michigan could see again in Boston, should they qualify for the 2022 Frozen Four. Bet on the Mavs getting another #1 seed after they run roughshod over the newly reborn CCHA. They're an elite hockey team, but like Nate alludes to, Minnesota State is a roster of 25-year-old seniors. Mankato isn't going to get much better. Michigan is a roster of 18-20-year-old freshmen and sophomores. The Wolverines can still improve, perhaps significantly. That fact should scare the whole country. 

Looking ahead. Michigan is now the team to beat in the country, and this weekend will be an intriguing test to see if they can avoid the letdown series. WMU comes to town on Friday, before Michigan heads to Kalamazoo to take on the Broncos on Saturday. Western is not a team in the neighborhood of UMD or Minnesota State, but they're also a cut above Lake State and not the kind of squad you can sleep on. WMU is 2-0 on the year, having swept Ferris State last weekend before taking the most recent weekend off. They are generally a team around #20 in the rankings (currently ranked #17), and WMU plays in probably the best conference in college hockey, the NCHC. The Broncos went 10-11-3 in that elite conference a year ago and roll over a lot of their pieces from last season. Not a team to circle, but not one you can sleep on, either. 

Wisconsin comes to Yost over Halloween weekend, which will also probably happen before my next hockey. As I expected, the Badgers are struggling to score (8 goals in four games), but they can play defense and have a goalie I like in Cameron Rowe. They're 2-2 on the year, getting swept by Michigan Tech, a team that looks good, and then sweeping a much less good Army team. Right now, my preseason prediction of the Badgers being a mediocre, mid-tier B1G team seems apt. Michigan will be favored against almost everyone they play the rest of the year, but bringing Wisconsin to Yost should result in two W's to begin the conference slate. 

Comments

lhglrkwg

October 18th, 2021 at 3:08 PM ^

They've hung 7, 6, 7, 5, and 3 on their opponents. The power play is firing at 50% (!)

It will be interesting to watch and see if it feels like refs swallow their whistles vs Michigan because the power play is putting in goals at such an absurdly high clip. I don't think it's intentional, but refs are humans and I feel like they're not gonna give us a mountain of powerplays because they know each time they blow the whistle it's basically 0.5 goals for us and it feels 'less fair' subconsciously. Or conversely, because we're scoring so many goals refs are quicker to blow the whistle for a team like Lake State

So far our opponents have 22 power plays to our 14. Now maybe that's because we're younger and we're just making more bone headed mistakes, but to my eyes it seems like we're getting a different whistle than our opponents

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

stephenrjking

October 18th, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^

Interesting question.

FWIW (and with the peculiarities of watching hockey in person nearish to the glass in mind) I didn’t feel like we got horribly jobbed out of PP chances against Mankato. It was a Mankato game. We didn’t spend a lot of time buzzing in their zone and when we did they were disciplined enough to avoid getting into the box.

It may, indeed, keep the attention of the officials if the PP remains deadly. I mean, we KNEW nothing was going to get called against MSU when the game was tied in the third unless it was blatant, because that kind of call is game-changing. But MSU knew that as well, and with our PP, “avoid dumb penalties” is going to be a focus of every opponent every week.

The guys who play hockey all watched the draft. They’re had our game circled since preseason, top ranking or no. We’re going to get the absolute heroically best game of every team we play this year.

All the better to prepare for the stretch run. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143860

JonnyHintz

October 18th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^

Id much rather the goalie just play conservatively and let Michigan’s skaters do what they do. We have enough puck moving defensemen and skilled forwards that we don’t need the added element of the goalie playing the puck. Especially in a tight game. Just stop the puck and let the players around you do what they do best. It’s going to be extremely frustrating if those ass-clenching plays turn into a goal or two and potentially cost us a game. 

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48345

lhglrkwg

October 18th, 2021 at 5:17 PM ^

Agreed. Portillo clearly loves playing the puck but I see almost no benefit to it. Theres some small benefits there, but on the flip side I know Portillos let in at least a goal or two by getting caught out of the net and theres been plenty more near misses. Its just a high risk, low reward play

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

Eschstreetalum

October 18th, 2021 at 4:09 PM ^

This is why I say In Warde We Trust. His coaching hires have been fantastic.  Imagine hiring an AD with actual AD experience for a change.  I think he has had a direct hand in firming up the football assistants hiring too.  Go Blue!

Joined: 01/21/2016

MGoPoints: 655

bluecanuk

October 18th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^

Thanks for the excellent work and analysis Alex- its great to see highly ranked teams play each other - unlike football where one team is typically punished for a loss and two losses to  high ranked teams and that is often an eliminator.   and Esch - good call on Warde - he is easy to criticize but gets big time credit for at least 2 coaching hires and I think more than that.

Joined: 10/15/2021

MGoPoints: 458

gobluem

October 18th, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^

Man, my takeaway from all that is the cameramen should be fired, couldn't see half the plays because the actual play was out of the frame from overcorrection on passes

Joined: 09/15/2017

MGoPoints: 6824

stephenrjking

October 18th, 2021 at 6:48 PM ^

Didn't get a chance to type this earlier, but good write-up. This team is a lot of fun. 

There were some flaws visible, mind you, given that the standard is high. The Beniers-Johnson line, for example, had two of the most dominant shifts of the weekend, but also struggled at times, as Alex alluded to. Kent is brilliant but sometimes he struggled with how MSU clogged the ice. 

Which is a good learning experience, once again. I mean, we aren't talking about a line that's been scoreless this season or anything; they're providing great offense and key goals. Even when things aren't going well they're still going well, you know?

Hard to get over how crazy it is that Luke Hughes is on our second defensive pairing. And it's not a gimmick, since you've got Powers and Blankenburg on the top pairing and they're really good. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143860

McSomething

October 19th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^

"That fact should scare the whole country."

I like it when Michigan can have nice things. If Michigan were to become to hockey what Bama has been to football since 2009 would be quite enjoyable to witness. 

Joined: 09/29/2010

MGoPoints: 36843

Lan Jiao

October 19th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^

Apologies for not going back to find their usernames, but the posts in the previews that went along the lines of “this is hard to follow for those of us who don’t follow M hockey as close as we should” resonated with me and I wonder if Alex took note. 
 

Whether you did or not, Alex, I think this helps the guilty rest of us who aren’t as plugged in. Many thanks for a great recap. 

Joined: 08/30/2016

MGoPoints: 193