WTKA 4/8/2021: Slightly Tower Comment Count

Seth April 8th, 2021 at 11:06 AM

Things discussed:

  • Who’s coming back? Eli solves a lot of the questions you have at guard. Chaundee would solve the rest of them plus shooting.
  • Do they go into the portal? Sam brings up Jacob Young but what do you get from him that you don’t get from Frankie Collins?
  • Point guard is the only question. If it’s a big question that says they don’t believe in Zeb. Marion Jackson of Toledo or another experienced distributor is the only spot maybe.
  • Sam: Not a guarantee that Chaundee and Eli return, but it makes sense for both.
  • The incoming freshmen: Diabate is going to be a switchable nightmare at the four or five. Houstan can be your shooter from the three.
  • Barnes: we’re slow-playing how excited we are about that guy. A lot of people think he could be the best player in the class. GR3 with a better shot LFG!
  • Eric Tolbert knew about the #2 NBA draft pick and didn’t tell Beilein about it.
  • Hockey: How many of these guys are coming back? Lots of them!
  • Football: the offense looks good, defense looks terrible. Seth: I believe the offense because the RBs looked good and we’re hearing the right things, and OL isn’t all injured.
  • Defense: Oy. Safety should be fine but everybody else is struggling, especially the linebackers and DL.
  • Noise is they can’t stop the run at all.
  • Part of that is probably the new system is complicated, and it’s too much for a young team.
  • Portal effect: Michigan’s transfer policy is bad across the board.
  • Who’s the quarterback?

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.

Segment two is available here.

THE USUAL LINKS

We need them to convert to Mormonism and just get after it.

Comments

Wolverine In Exile

April 8th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^

Pretty amazing talking to some of the inside, first hand sources I know on how much Don Brown was literally ignoring his other coaches on personnel and schematic information the past two years. Just goes to my thought that Harbaugh for whatever reason has been disconnected from day-to-day operations of the team post 2018. 

1VaBlue1

April 8th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^

I've long believed that Harbaugh installs a DC and expects him to run it without supervision or oversight.  This has worked out fairly well over his years as a coach, but seems to have caught him hard last year.  There were cracks showing in 2019, but Brown's very recent defenses were pretty good (an understatement) so he had some built in confidence reserves left over.  

I do believe there's a good amount of talent on the defense, but it's going to need some game action to start understanding this new defense...

NotADuck

April 8th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^

What does "Eric Tolbert knew about the #2 NBA draft pick and didn't tell Beilein about it" mean?  I don't want to parse through the entire podcast just to find the part where they mention that.  Also I likely won't listen at all.  Just not enough time on my hands.

Seth

April 8th, 2021 at 12:53 PM ^

Eric Tolbert is a friend of Sam and Ira who's occasionally part of the WTKA show--sorta like Bryan MacKenzie here. He knew about Ja Morant in high school and didn't tell John Beilein he should come down to South Carolina and recruit that guy. Morant went to Murray State and blew up into the #2 overall pick, and Michigan did pretty okay with Zavier Simpson, but whenever Tolbert pops up Sam likes to rub it in that Morant could have been a Wolverine if Eric had just said something.

desmondcharles

April 9th, 2021 at 7:46 AM ^

(This is Eric Tolbert) I try to put Michigan on kids all the time including the #14 overall pick in the draft last season Aaron Nesmith . If I would have told Coach B there’s a 2* kid that plays ball with some kids I mentor who’s a straight up baller everyone would have laughed me out of my shorts. lol 
No one wanted Ja and the only reason Murray State offered him was they came to the gym to watch another kid and Ja was on the other side of the gym playing 3 on 3 with some of his friends . The scout from Murray state started asking who that kid right there and the rest is history. Bigger schools tried to get in on him late but he’s a very humble and loyal kid. Since Murray state wanted him with no one else did he stuck with them. I’ve known him since he was 2 years old . 
New name to keep your eye on Brandon Gardner . He’s the number 39 player in the 2023 class. I coach football at his high school and the kid is a straight up baller . 

 

Joby

April 8th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^

Seth, Brian and Craig, make sure you protect your source by audio-editing out the name, which is stated around the 30:30 mark of the videoconference. ??

Blueinsconsin

April 8th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^

With how much of the staff is new, this is essentially year 1 and not year 7 under Harbaugh..Is that okay? Obviously not. Was a total reset needed? Yes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

1VaBlue1

April 8th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^

We know exactly what we have in Brown, and how he fits within the team - and its great in all respects.  Why let him go and bring in an unknown wildcard to do the same thing?  Not many one-year rentals have come in and played anywhere near the level Brown and Smith just gave us.

I'll stick with Brown, thank you...

Bambi

April 8th, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^

We know how Chaundee fit in to last year's team, that doesn't mean the fit is the same in next year's team.

Last year's team had 2 good starting guards, plus Franz who could handle the ball as well. That meant Chaundee's ball-handling ability, or lack there of, was able to be hidden for the most part. He could focus on doing the the two things he did very well, which is make jump shots and play intense, energetic defense.

Next year's team's biggest weakness is going to be the backcourt. We currently have 0 proven ballhandlers or guards of any kind on next year's roster. Eli coming back helps immensely, because he's a proven quality secondary ball handler, he's a proven perimeter shooter and a proven perimeter defender. Chaundee gives us another source of perimeter shooting and perimeter defending, but does nothing to solve the ball handling issues. At that point we go into next year with a potential massive issue of no proven on ball creators, ie someone who can create for themselves or teammates.

Jacob Young is a great fit there. He played in the B1G last year, took 240 two's of which 131 were at the rim, made 60% of those at the rim, and did so with only ~25% of them being assisted. Meaning he got to the rim frequently, finished at a high level, and was able to do so while creating for himself. For reference Chaundee and Eli didn't hit 240 two's combined last year, each of them took more "other two's" than at the rim two's, and were assisted on 50% of their at the rim two's. And even looking at those other two's, Young hit a higher percentage of his (39.4%) than Brooks (21.7%) or Brown (39%), and once again on significantly harder shot quality (11% of his other two's were assisted compared to 31% for Brooks and 63% for Brown).

So Young is a significantly better at getting his own shot than Brooks or Brown, and actually legitimately good at it. And as we saw against UCLA, we were missing someone like that mightily on the perimeter this past season. And none of this takes into account that Young had a very good AST rate of 23 last year (would have been 2nd highest on Michigan last year by about 6 points, only behind Smith) and hit 37% of his 3's, of which only 61% were assisted (compared to Brooks and Brown who had 97% of theirs assisted). According to Dylan at UMHoops, Young also shot ~60% at the rim in the half court and created the 7th most points out of the P&R last year in the B1G. Those are two good stats that would provide needed qualities that our roster next year doesn't currently have.

Young isn't without his warts. His 3 point shooting may have been a little lucky last year (career 29% shooter), but him hitting 37% on a similar number of attempts to Brown and Brooks last year on a much harder shot difficulty implies some upside there. His USG was higher last year than it would be at Michigan, but that was mostly a function of his TO rate being too high. Putting him in a better, more balanced offense with better coaching where he's not expected to shoulder the biggest load on offense or sprint up and down the court every 5 seconds would cut down on those significantly. There's quality upside with him.

I love what Chaundee did for us last year. But him and Brooks are redundant, and Brooks brings the secondary ball handling aspect Chaundee doesn't. Adding Young would give us a primary ball handler who can score and create for others at a high major level, and also provide the high energy defensive effort Chaundee brought himself.

poppinfresh

April 10th, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^

FANTASTIC breakdown. I am all aboard the Young train (I love brooks and chaundee too but brown probably getting good NBA feed back).

For those questioning Young’s personality or cerebral caliber... number one trust in Juwans culture. Two young reminds me of a more complete Xavier Simpson. Tough, taller, better finishing capability and better shooting. so if you liked X, you’ll like young.

that said the key is what this does to Frankie. I could argue either side. Improves him facing young everyday or ruffles feathers and squeezes minutes. To me I think this move would mean Zeb could play more back up 3 minutes. I think banking on Houston playing 30+ is ambitious 
 

 

SoccerDancer

April 8th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^

Basketball point: I think there is an additional component missing from the discussion. The caliber of the players you're going against in practice day in and day out, is about to EXPLODE compared to this year. We have 4 seniors (Ozuna-Harrison, Wilson, Faulds, Baird) who are serious deep bench and only play when it's HVC minutes. Obviously those are good players and they'd start at smaller schools, and smoke the average player off the court, so I don't mean this too sound harsh, but 3 of them were WO/PWO, they are NOT McDonalds All-American caliber players.Those are the guys playing the scout team, those are the guys that are playing in scrimmage day in day out. You just swapped them with the #1 recruiting class in the country? The holistic caliber of the team jumps out of the gym. That alone is going to have an impact that's under appreciated.

SoccerDancer

April 8th, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^

Our bench mob and their energy is awesome. I'm saying that in practice every player counts. Your weakest player has to push your top players, hell, that's their primary role on the team. If you want, you could theoretically rank the players 1-17. Or go by position and rank them. Point is, we have those 4 I called out who practice against our starting/2nd line as scout and in drills and basic scrimmage. Who you play against every day matters, it makes a difference. I'm saying when you swap out 3 walk-ons with 3 McD All Americans, it raises the group as a whole. As for our 'bench mob' adding minutes, yeah, pretty awesome if you can comfortably go 10+ deep without material drop off. Hell even Adrian Nunez was getting real minutes and 4 starts even a year ago. In spite of the questions about #1 next year, as a whole I think we're insane deep.

wolfman81

April 8th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^

Faculty will resist changing transfer rules.*  I think that Mike Smith coming from Columbia wasn't  an issue because, Columbia.  I think that grad transfers are a different story too (thinking about Mike Danna) because grad programs are used to evaluating students from diverse backgrounds (and I'm not sure that those who do the whole grad transfer thing for sports are really trying to graduate with an MA/MS all of the time--does the NCAA even track that).  How does the UM Math department feel about someone taking Calc 1 at Washtenaw CC?  Should they let them into Calc 2 at Michigan (assuming the student gets admitted)?  I can see a whole host of other mitigating factors that could play into that decision too (such as if this was a dual enrollment situation and the student was taking Calc 1 at a CC while still a senior in HS). 

The issue that Seth decries about transfer rules in this podcast is basically the issue everywhere.  There's no standard curriculum.  Calc 1 means different things at different places.  And high prestige schools have little reason to change.  The only way to get around the individual course evaluation process is if institutions have an articulation agreement with each other where the transfers have been previously defined.  (If you are a Michigan student who is living in Michigan, and you want to "get ahead" with some of your gen eds or whatever, your local CC probably has a list of pre-vetted courses that you can take over the summer that will transfer into Michigan with no problem).  

* I'm a faculty member at G5 school.

Seth

April 8th, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^

Thanks for responding. It is of course a matter of degrees (ha!) but in this Michigan is an extreme, extreme outlier. Even Ivy League schools are willing to look at your coursework and fudge some things to translate your previous educational work into credits towards a degree at their school.

In 2019 I talked to somebody in admissions at Stanford who confirmed to me that Michigan is insane. Most schools are willing to give you credit for doing the work even if it doesn't translate directly to a course at Michigan. Where it gets tricky there is when you are putting credits towards a major or with prerequisites.

But in that case you already have a bunch of credits and you end up taking a few extra courses or getting provisional acceptance to classes. It creates an extra layer but it is doable.

At Michigan every single course has to translate or you get nothing. My situation was I left my study abroad program because I wanted to take regular courses in French at the Sorbonne. If a French student took Harvard's class on the American Revolution, I don't think the University of Normandy would have a problem calling that an English class or a History class. Michigan gave me zero credits.

This policy prevents Michigan from getting many transfers, unnecessarily shrinking the pool they can recruit from. In athletics it creates a terrible barrier because a lot of students who decide that they do want the challenge and prestige of a Michigan degree get shut out because they made an athletics decision earlier in their careers.

And (this is directed at Michigan not you) spare me any talk of how seriously our athletes take academics. As a group they routinely outperform the regular student body and have more success after graduation. And we had no problem letting a quarterback with a 3-year Ole Miss degree into a Master's program, and the bar doesn't get any lower than that.

wolfman81

April 8th, 2021 at 3:44 PM ^

Yeah, exactly what transfers (and what can be waived) is always a local issue.  I suppose in your case, your department could have argued to have degree requirements waived.  (We do this routinely for our Pre-Calculus class requirement if a student comes in with AP credit in Calculus).  My broader point is that grad transfers seem like they would be far easier to swing than undergrad transfers because most grad students (athletes and non-athletes alike) in a program like the ones at Michigan didn't do their undergrad degrees at Michigan too.  

I agree.  Athletes generally take academics seriously, they need us to stay eligible and most of them aren't going pro in sports.  It is almost universal that athletes graduate in 4 years (or less) at a higher rate than their non-athlete peers.  To be fair, athletes are also supported differently than non-athletes, a factor which drives that success.  

My comment about the "grad transfer thing for sports" was that I don't see the NCAA tracking graduate program progress like they do undergrad program progress. So I have no idea how retention rates track for athletes vs. non-athletes in graduate programs, and I don't know that the NCAA does either.  (But I'd be happy to see that data.)

AC1997

April 8th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^

Here's the tricky part with basketball's roster.  Everyone would love to have Eli and Brown back....but contrary to what is stated in the bullets - they don't actually fix the roster construction issue.  They fix the depth chart at the 2/3 positions and give a floor to the situation at PG - all of which is important.  

But the issue with the roster next year is who is driving the offense and facilitating for everyone.  I'm in love with Frankie Collins and Kobe Bufkin....I also know that freshmen guards have a pretty finite ceiling.  I'm willing to go to battle with the 120 minutes at the 1-2-3 going to Collins, Brooks, Bufkin, Jackson, Brown, and Houstan......but I do worry a lot about our PG situation.

Brooks and Brown are awesome....but they are what they are.