got a legit center here [Bryan Fuller]

This Week's Obsession: Expectations Go Boom, Offense Comment Count

Ace October 26th, 2020 at 4:52 PM

We ended up dividing this week's, uh, This Week's Obsession into two parts because we are excited about the state of things. The prompt:

HOW HAVE YOUR PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS CHANGED SINCE THE MINNESOTA GAME

Seth: I may have underestimated Rutgers. Or something.

Ace: Joe Milton go brrrrrrrrrrrrr

Brian: Well, as the nation's leading Worried About Joe Milton guy, I mean... I'm less worried.

Ace: Michael Barrett go boom.

Brian: I kind of expected that from Barrett?

Ace: Roman Wilson go zoom.

Brian: Many persons went zoom.

Seth: Some of those who went zoom were recruited for their zoom.

Ace: Josh Gattis [rocket noises]

Seth: I do not think I expected to see Blake Corum go zoom so early.

Ace: The diversity and efficacy of the zooming was very encouraging.

Seth: Best zoom of 2020 by far.

Ace: I expected speed in space but for Michigan to eliminate the outside cornerbacks from the gameplan and gain nearly a first down per play was not necessarily expected.

Seth: The Harbaughification of the Gattis offense was glorious, and I'm not saying that as the conductor of the Ben Mason hype train. There were traps off power. Real 2015 stuff. Plus zoom.

Brian: So the things that stood out to me as unexpected:

  1. Joe Milton, game manager
  2. Gemon Green, person with large pockets containing receivers
  3. Ben Mason, key component of offense

We've been over the Milton stuff on the podcast and in the game column. I wasn't expecting a mistake rate that low.

Ace: His rushing ability also opened up the offense in a way we didn’t see last year. As you said, he’s got a scary power/speed combination.

Brian: I cannot believe he only ran for 250 yards as a senior in high school.

Alex: Harbaugh called him Cool As A Cucumber after the game and he really was. Only forced one throw that I can recall. Executed the easy plays. Looked good as a runner to move the chains. A steady stable Joe Milton who makes a few unbelievable throws a game... that’s the ticket, baby. That’s it right there.

[After THE JUMP: that's the ticket, baby.]

BiSB: The All dropped touchdown was reminiscent of the QB Oh Noes days of yore.

Ace: Speaking of which, if he brings in one of those potential touchdowns, we’re talking a lot more about him today. I’m still excited about the way they used him, which suggests they think he’s really dang good.

Brian: <gets RPS+3 medal out of dusty locker>

Alex: Have we talked about how much 21 personnel we saw? I wasn’t expecting that on offense. Part of that is no Nick Eubanks, surely.

Seth: I'm pumping the brakes a little bit on Milton because I didn't think he had hard reads. There was a long stretch of this game when Michigan wasn't in any kind of 3rd down, and I think I counted just two pressures. This was the ideal way to break in a quarterback, and I didn't expect it to go as smoothly as it did. But if expectations have adjusted for Joe they're the same for some of the other young QBs who debuted in the Big Ten this week: from "I have no idea" to "Oh, there's some there here; let's keep the apron strings tied." I kind of suspected the running ability from the limited snaps he's faced. 

Alex: That they could afford to keep the proverbial training wheels on bodes well for most of the rest of the season.

Ace: There’s a part of me that feels that. And also a larger part of me going WOOOOOOOOOO BROTHER THAT WAS START ONE WE HAVEN’T SEEN THE HALF OF IT YET.

Brian: We hadn't really seen him follow the design of a play and maximize his blocking like he did a few different times. The Wisconsin run was against the grain improv. Compare it to those two Patterson shoulda-coulda TDs against OSU where he didn't cut up inside his blocking.

Ace: They ran one actual zone read, I think? And he kept it for a shockingly easy first down.

Seth: I think there was one spring game run on a QB Pin & Pull RPO that I analyzed to the pixel.

Ace: They bluffed one orbit motion. There’s a lot of stuff still in the bag.

Brian: There was one keep and I suspect there were a few more on which he handed off, possibly incorrectly.

Alex: Running an empty backfield QB pin and pull inside the five yard line is pretty damn awesome. I know that was in the game column but yeah.

Ace: That was so easy.

Brian: Being able to wildcat with your actual quarterback is awesome. 

Ace: Speaking of that: Andrew Vastardis looked great. Got out in space, ID’d the right guys, took them for rides. He was a big part of those pin-and-pulls.

Alex: I will never take a smart, competent offensive line for granted again in my life, man. 

Ace: Long live Warinner.

Brian: Yeah there was one blitz that killed a Charbonnet run early and other than that I don't think anyone got through clean.

Ace: That one felt like an RPS loss as much as a bust, too. 

Brian: That is what it's likely to grade out as, yes.

Ace: So the two guys we were most concerned about making consistent game-changing mistakes were pretty much error-free on first (and second, GIF-focused) watch. At least when it came to making drive-killing mistakes.

Seth: Chuck Filiaga as their best pulling guard was another pleasant surprise. When a man that large can appear in places the small people roam you're gonna have a good time.

Alex: I feel like most people were hopping on the Gattis bandwagon by the end of last season so this might not qualify as a “surprise” but that looked like a fantastic game plan to me.

Seth: The thing I was really hopping up and down about was the return of the screens.

Ace: Bubbles!

Lord, I’m turning into a child.

Alex: Free yards? For a Michigan offense? Yes sir.

Ace: [clapping like a seal]

Brian: That Harbaugh quote about how they had guys who can be first or second reads because they can delete a linebacker by themselves was paid off on the first snap. When you can design a play that assumes you don't have to block a linebacker then you've got guys to the safety.

Ace: An offense that takes free yards and attacks matchups instead of running the same stuff regardless of opponent. I’m feeling pretty good, guys.

Seth: It was also a way for Ronnie Bell to affect the game when he had Minnesota's best defender glued to him. He broke a guy on the Henning screen.

BiSB: Does that work against the best linebackers in the Big Ten though?

Ace: I mean not everything is gonna work as well as that Charbonnet touchdown, no. We should be clear that Minnesota’s defense is probably not good.

BiSB: Especially their linebackers.

Ace: But they’re still Big Ten, and not Rutgers Big Ten, and they got lit aflame.

BiSB: Not quite Illinois level linebacking play, but bad.

Brian: Maybe maybe not. Once you get guys jumping to that flare action you can get that RPS+3 stuff going on something else. Constant iteration, like those arc TE screens. 

Ace: The constant messing with the second level felt more consistent and cohesive.

Seth: I know we're jumping to #3 but the threat of bringing Ben Mason across the formation was real and Michigan did everything but actually kickout block with it.

Alex: Yeah hard to say how good or bad the Gopher defense is based on a sample size of one game, even though that one game was real bad for them.

Ace: The Mason stuff got multiple touchdowns.

BiSB: THAT seems pretty sustainable.

Ace: My body is ready.

Seth: One piece of the Charbonnet touchdown (there are always many when you have literally nobody in your way for 70 yards) was the Mike went full bore to the frontside because he expected Mason would be ejecting the edge over there.

Ace: He’s going to motion to the edge a lot, it’s going to seem like a block a lot, the prospect of that block is going to instill the fear of god, and then he’s going to slip into the flat and maybe hurdle a defensive back.

Alex: He really looks like a sixth OL out there some times and! he’s Not Just A Blocker.

Brian: Also his presence means that Gattis learns stuff.

Ace: Good point.

Brian: How many OCs never learn anything? 

BiSB: Pretty sure he just stole that from Mike Locksley.

/ducks

Ace: That was a better Locksley joke than the one I was typing.

Seth: Ha ha Gattis used a sixth OL too this game. One year around Harbaugh and we turned the #SpeedinSpace guy into a Jerry Hanlon aficionado. 

BiSB: Watching that game, you could just FEEL the 73 different ways they can take this. It wasn't just the Malibu Stacy With A New Hat version of 2019's offense.

Alex: It also wasn’t an eclectic blend of plays that made no sense relative to one another

Ace: I’m anticipating entire packages of plays that have only been hinted at so far.

Alex: Am I still harboring an enmity towards Al Borges? Maybe.

Ace: That was the first game after a short offseason with a first-time starter!

BiSB: They probably won't need to bust them out for Michigan State.

(They should probably bust them out for Michigan State tho.)

Brian: They should definitely run the Cornelius Johnson thing again. 

Ace: MARK DANTONIO MEET ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OCTAGON 

sorry

Run that stuff, though.

Seth: I just remember the quotes from coaches in 2015-'16, when they said Harbaugh's offense is so hard to prepare for because they will make gaps appear anywhere. That wasn't at all the case last year. They had many interesting ways of attacking just inside edge defenders. This felt much more like spread-Harbaugh fusion cuisine and I'm loving it.

Ace: Murder spread.

Brian: The 2019 offense wasn't one thing, it was a scramble trying to put together something that worked once Patterson came under way under expectations/got hurt.

BiSB: Maybe it was just me, but the RPS wins seemed easier, like they had a higher likelihood of success. In terms of efficiency, I'd rather have "three yard toss to Erick All coming across the formation that gains 17 yards" than a deep shot.

Ace: Those throws over the intermediate middle of the field to Roman Wilson and such have a lot of upside, as well. It’s easier to gain yards after the catch where you’re getting the ball there than down the sideline. We saw… no(?)… armpunts down the sideline.

Brian: I think that is correct that there were no fly routes targeted. 

BiSB: I did see my entire Twitter timeline lose their collective crap over the incomplete pass to Jackson late in the half, though. Humans don't usually throw a football like that.

Ace: One of the more impressive incompletions I can remember.

Brian: That's a gimmicky top five just waiting

Ace: Meanwhile, this is a dart that avoids the linebacker, keeps the second safety out of play, and remains catchable.

That’s spent the whole summer in the film room and has first-round arm talent stuff.

Brian: I don't know how many times Patterson threw in between levels in a zone in the middle of the field but It wasn't many.

Coming tomorrow: the defense.

Comments

Blake Forum

October 27th, 2020 at 4:00 AM ^

Can’t say enough good things about this offensive line. Who is on Ed Warriner’s level as an o-line coach in college? Joe Rudolph at Wisconsin probably. Other than that, not sure anyone is. There are better lines out there, but other than Wisconsin, any team consistently trotting out a better line than this also recruits measurably more talent. Point being, Warriner is the truth and we need to pay him whatever he wants for as long as he wants 

Wolverine In Exile

October 27th, 2020 at 9:48 AM ^

OK, so hear me out, but one game in and the best comparison to what I see from Milton is... younger NFL John Elway (like first two Super Bowl losses Elway). Big and mobile, not a sprinter, but fast enough to get away from defenders for a lot of yards. Can run to the point that a defense has to respect that he can pull it down, but got the laser zing-y arm to flick 50 yds downfield. Still may be prone to throw it through a brick wall to get it to a receiver, and may not have the best downfield touch, but accurate enough that if you give him a moment to get his body square, even on the move, he'll make the hard throw with velocity. I'm very intrigued to see how he progresses. 

Mgoczar

October 27th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^

Could look at it another way: does M beat Minny with Mcaffery in the same way? I have doubts. Milton may have rough moments but as said a 1000 times, his ceiling is pretty high and I can see him improving. Even JT Barrett level would do wonders for M offense. 

As an aside, Charbonnet on that 70 yds TD reminded me - unfortunately- of those big runs Zeke Elliot did for OSU. We may be turning into power spread OSU style. 

Mongo

October 27th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^

The Gattis Power Spread is more like 'Bama style.  OSU doesn't really feature the TE/FB like 'Bama does.  Also, the way Gattis deploys his QB is much more like 'Bama.  If Joe sticks around next year with all this talent, who knows how good the offense could become.  Heck, even by the OSU game this year they could become fully 'Bama-weaponized.  Just need to keep getting better and more explosive every game.

1VaBlue1

October 27th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^

"...does M beat Minny with Mcaffery in the same way?"

I'll say yes, they do.  DCaff is a really good runner, but in a different way than Milton.  Dylan would get the corner easier, and fly downhill faster and farther; but he wouldn't get through the line on those pin&pulls nearly as well.  Once hit, he's down.  But he doesn't get caught on the sideline, either - that play would have been an easy TD.  And while Dylan doesn't have Milton's arm strength (no way he makes that flick of the wrist 50-yd thing), he has shown good decision and accuracy in games.

I think where DCaff lost the battle is two places: 1) upside - Dylan's is somewhat limited by size and arm; 2) team leadership - Joe had the teams undivided attention, respect, and confidence; not sure Dylan had the same confidence behind him.

Hail-Storm

October 27th, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^

I hope Milton does well.  I am still a little gun shy, as I remember Navarre having a couple perfect games before dropping off when he stepped in for Henson in 2000 (when Henson broke his toe drunk or something).

I was really happy to see Joe step up into the pocket to move after trying to run around the edge on the first series.  He also took some speed off of some of his throws where his initial passes were a bit too Morris for me. 

I was also surprised by his running as well. He won't be a Gardner or McCaffrey (sp?) but patient smart running keeps defenses honest.

Sounds like he has the confidence and coolness to really be good.  Work on those progressions, and the next four years will be fun to watch. (also, I was a bit flipant with my comments regarding all this talk about his arm strength, when I think it's an overrated skill of a QB, but damn that 50 yard flip to the corner on that run was fucking cool man)

goblue2121

October 27th, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^

Good points gentlemen. I've always dismissed most opinions that Harbaugh is stuck in his ways offensively and doesn't evolve when all evidence of the man's career points to the contrary. From his days at SD, Stanford, SF and U of M, he typically installs a system/gameplan around his qb's skillset and the strengths of his o line.  If he doesn't get it done, it won't be for lack of effort or creativity.

Spitfire

October 27th, 2020 at 1:38 PM ^

Really excited about this offense. Definitely seems a spread/power hybrid. I think the offensive line play including pulls and traps along with Mason's lead blocking with the great group of running backs gives this team a chance of having an awesome running game.