Upon Further Review: Defense vs Utah

Note: "player" has never been deployed for the defense; I tried it this week and the results are kinda weird. It's the player most responsible for the result of the play, if that makes any sense.

Also Note: if you want the swanky video popups, you’ll have to click through to the post page itself. Click the title of the post. Update: hey, it works. Nevermind.

I’m going to try to come up with a better solution for this next week.

So what changed at halftime?

My initial theory was they junked the 4-3 zone that Johnson was shredding in the first half in favor of more 3-3-5 and more man, but as you can see above, not really. Any increased prevalence of three-man lines has more to do with the preposterous down and distance situations Utah found themselves in than any schematic adjustment. When it was first and ten in the second half, Michigan was in a 3-3-5 twice and a 4-3 all other times.

My new theory: the second half performance is close to baseline unless someone on Michigan makes a huge error. First half drives in capsule form:

• Jamison draws a holding penalty and Utah finds itself in third and nineteen; Brown screws up badly, allowing a 55 yards pass and first and goal. (TD)
• Johnson makes two NFL-quality throws that pick up 40-some yards; Ezeh busts a coverage and allows a second and sixteen to become a first down. (FG)
• Evans blows a simple flare route in every way you can and turns a checkoff into a 40 yard play. (FG)
• Utah completes a pass against Ezeh in zone and pounds down the field, exploiting freshman Mike Martin and getting some poor play from Evans and Ezeh. (FG)
• Three-and-out.
• Short field touchdown helped by poor coverage. (TD)

On each of the first three drives, simple errors from Michigan players turn long yardage down and distance situations into enormous plays; on the last Sheridan’s interception reduces the margin for error.

None of this happened in the second half, and while Utah managed the occasional first down with a number of runs up the middle or pass against the linebackers, their offensive line couldn’t handle the Michigan DL consistently enough to keep Utah out of third and long.

This is kind of the opposite of what’s going on with the offense. The offense has severe physical limitations and execution issues, so it can get better but will always have a low ceiling. The defense looks like a physically dominant monster with occasional execution issues.

Execution issues don’t just go away, of course, but they do go down as the weeks progress.

Chart?

Wow, like. Wow, man. I don’t know if I want to show you this thing.

For newcomers: the defense chart attempts to quantify positive and negative contributions from defensive players. Routine things like being the guy to clean up and tackle after someone else disrupted the play don’t show up. This does a pretty decent job in the run game but is inadequate for the pass game, so there are two metrics—“pressure” and “coverage”—devoted to that. In general, DL get the highest scores, LBs are in between, and DBs try to stay around zero.

Usually, this thing aligns pretty closely with the opinions I had watching the game live and on tape. This one is weird.

Anyway, chart.

Okay, my issues with my own damn chart:

• I thought Graham had a disappointing day, as he only got to the quarterback every once in a while. All the mentions above are from nice plays in run defense.
• Jamison and Johnson were great, IMO, and I have no problems with their numbers. Taylor checks out, too.
• The linebackers were obviously a problem, and the outside linebackers especially.
• Ezeh… well. Something like –6 was on pass coverage, where I think you’ll agree Michigan linebackers had serious issues. There were another couple plays in the run game where he just flipped out and went completely the wrong direction, and that’s how you get to –5.

I still don’t agree with the Ezeh thing, but when Johnson is tearing up the linebackers underneath and Utah racks up a billion yards in the first half because of it, someone has to suffer.

Barwis SMASH?

Well, he couldn’t do much with the patchwork offensive line but holy crap this DL looks like it’s from another planet this year. Tim Jamison was crushing a guy who was second-team All Mountain West last year; this is not conclusive but it's certainly encouraging. Will Johnson turned in more plays in that game than he did in half of last year. And Johnson got run down from behind more than once on plays we’ve all seen end in tragedy before.

All hail.

What’s with the linebackers and the suck?

They’re clearly scrambling for answers here, with Evans and Panter scheduled to sit for Mouton and Thompson next week. This should not be particularly surprising. Panter became Michigan’s first JUCO recruit in ten years for a reason, and it wasn’t “boy we’re so deep at linebacker.”

Thompson, of course, had that wowza Iowa game in 2005, then disappeared to the bench until the early stages of last year, when he started for a bit then lost his job to injuries and Ezeh. Maybe he’s not good against the pass, but if he turns out to be good against the run he’s got something on Panter. Mouton made a play or two last game, but he’s been AWOL behind players who are bad for the duration of his career. I’m not expecting miracles.

As for Ezeh, live I thought he was awesome; on tape I thought he was pretty good; in the harsh number-thing above he checked in about as ugly as it gets. He’s clearly still working towards the lofty standard set by David Harris. He’s obviously much closer this year and I think he might approach it as a junior. There will still be growing pains this fall.

Heroes?

Defensive line, Barwis, Warren.

Goats?

Linebackers, somewhat Steve Brown.

What does it mean for next week and the season?

I was more encouraged by the defense after review, since a lot of the plays Johnson made had little margin for error—little holes in a zone or a defensive lineman just about to put a facemask in his chest—and some others seemed first game jitters from young players. Iron out the n00bs to the point where they’re the defensive equivalent of Wisconsin quarterbacks—just don’t lose the game for us, kid—and let the defensive line go to work and this defense should just about live up to its hype.

Watch out for: veteran quarterbacks who operate out of a spread or have excellent underneath options. Tight ends could be problematic all year.