FORMATION NOTES: MSU was a very basic 4-3 even, as they have been forever.

Aside from pass rush exotics, this was the whole game. They would occasionally slide the line to the run strength, and they'd put a nickel on the field for passing downs. They ran a lot of the Dantonio-vintage double-A gap twist blitz from the linebackers; this was about their only gambit on the day.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Nothing unusual. WR/TE snaps, as per usual:

• Cornelius Johnson: 50
• Roman Wilson: 43
• Colston Loveland & AJ Barner: 37
• Tyler Morris: 35
• Semaj Morgan: 21
• Max Bredeson: 9.

Morris and Morgan both got a bunch of snaps in Tuttle time. This was a bit of deviation from recent games, where Barner was your #1 snap recipient; my assumption is that Michigan felt like MSU's LB crew was vulnerable to approximately everything when passing and leaned slightly more towards three-wide sets. Only slightly, because Harbaugh.

[After THE JUMP: a beatdown]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M16	1	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel over	5.5	Run	Crack sweep	Corum	7
Barner(+0.5) motions in and cracks the playside end; Henderson(+1) pulls around this and gets out quickly. Morris(+1) cuts off Haladay. Keegan(-1) can’t get any control of the playside DT and he’s able to flow down the line more or less unmolested; he grabs Corum as Corum cuts inside the Henderson block. RPS +1.
M23	2	3	Gun 4-wide	1	2	2	Nickel even	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Corum	10
Solid protection; no idea about anything downfield; JJ checks down to an open Corum. (CA, 3, protection 2/2 JJ +0.5)
M33	1	10	Gun twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	8	Run	Pin and pull	Corum	1
Second straight week a TE running into the flat draws no coverage; this time JJ is in the gun so he should be able to see it, but if he’s reading someone it looks like a LB. Henderson and Keegan move to scoop a DT and succeed but no one blocks the DE and he rips down the line. Corum(+0.5) is able to avoid a TFL by cutting behind him. I have to assume this is live. (RPO-, JJ -2). Zinter(-2) gets shed and dumped to the ground by a DT so this isn’t going anywhere anyway; Keegan(+1) and Henderson(+1) did do a good job of scooping the other DT; Barner(+0.5) and Barnhart get solid blocks.
M34	2	9	Gun quads	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Penalty	False start	Corum	-5
Corum -1.
M34	2	14	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	Slot fade	Wilson	Inc
Cover one look from MSU and they run it, bold. JJ immediately knows he’s going slot fade and Wilson runs by Grose; the ball is not perfect but it’s pretty good; Wilson takes early contact that is PI but not called (refs -2) and Wilson can only use one hand to stab at it. Wilson is almost able to bring it in, but not quite. (CA, 1, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5)
M34	3	14	Gun trips	1	2	2	Exotic	5	Pass	Improv	Barner	16
Four man rush; line gives JJ absolutely forever. Four of these routes are not going to convert and JJ would like to convert. His timer goes off and he moves outside the pocket; Barner mirrors him and gets depth; JJ fires in a laser that Barner leaps to grab, taking a big hit as he does so. (DO, 2, protection 3/3, JJ +2)
50	1	10	Gun twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Pass	PA rollout hitch	Johnson	11
PA, short roll for JJ as M high-lows a zone corner. He turns his hips to go deep and JJ fires off the short route; Johnson(+1) is able to dodge a tackle and extend this past the sticks. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5, RPS +1)
O39	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6	Run	Duo?	Corum	4
Double A gap twist from MSU so no doubles possible, but I assume it was supposed to be duo. Nugent(+1) and Zinter(+1) pick up the blitzers; Nugent gives ground, as he must due to the laws of physics, and Corum gets caught up on him a bit, slowing him. Barner(-0.5) gets a kickout but is stalemated and quickly shed to the interior; Barnhart(+1) wins one on one with a DT and turns him inside; Corum burrows behind him as the kickout guy collapses from the side and DBs rally. RPS -1; this blitz did do enough to disrupt the play and it took three very good blocks to get four yards.
O35	2	6	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6.5	Run	Power GT	Corum	2
Orbit motion from Morris takes a LB out of the box. DE forms up, give (ZR+, JJ +0.5). Henderson(+1) turns his guy in and gets a yard of movement. Zinter(+0.5) gets a kickout. Barnhart(-2) is way too flat and ends up just running by Haladay; Corum gets nailed.
O33	3	4	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	5.5	Pass	Drag	Wilson	25
Corner on Johnson has to go vertical as Johnson runs a fly, and then Wilson runs a drag under it. Nearest player: Haladay. In a word: no. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5, RPS +2)
O8	1	G	Gun twins FB	1	2	2	4-3 over	7.5	Run	Iso	Corum	3
Doesn’t work out like planned as DT fires Keegan(-0.5) back into the intended lane. Keegan is able to anchor and fend the guy off, avoiding the -1; Nugent(+0.5) and Zinter(+1) double through the other DT with Zinter driving him downfield; Corum is able to pick his way behind that for a decent gain.
O5	2	G	Gun TTB	1	2	2	4-3 even	9	Run	Duo	Corum	5
Passive from MSU by alignment. They twist the DTs; Nugent(+1) hits the slanter and then comes off on the looper; Zinter(+1) picks up the slanter and drives him a couple yards downfield. Barnhart(+0.5) and Barner(+0.5) double an end and put him at the one; Corum(+0.5) regaps to the back of the line here and burrows.
O1	3	G	Goal line	1	4*	0	Goal line	11	Run	Iso	Corum	1
Inches here. Henderson(+0.5) and Keegan(+0.5) bury a DT and Bredeson runs into the gap; Corum follows.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M49	1	10	Pistol twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	PA hitch	Barner	15
PA with a pulling G pulls Haladay almost to the LOS, opening up the Barner hitch; JJ hitches up a couple of times and almost lets the LB rally to the ball; it’s just past his fingers and Barner brings in a tough one. (MA, 2, protection 2/2, RPS +1, JJ -0.5). Deviating from results based charting slightly because this should have been an easy pitch and catch.
O36	1	10	Ace trip TE	1	3	1	4-3 even	8	Run	Windback	Edwards	-4
Playside LB does not bite on duo look, hangs back, fires up at Edwards for a TFL. This is why windback is a constraint. RPS -3.
O40	2	14	Gun TTB	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Pass	TE delay	Barner	1
Coverage does not lift and Brule is just seven yards away from the LOS when this throw gets out. I’m not sure if this is even a read for JJ since every other TE delay they’ve run in the last two years has been the delay. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ push, RPS -2). If you want to put this on JJ for not looking else where I get it.
O39	3	13	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Flare screen	Edwards	14
DB over the slot charges into Wilson and Wilson(-1) gets blasted back. To do this the MSU dude had to get off balance and remains off balance; Edwards(+1) shimmies and just hits it hard; DB falls to the ground uselessly as Wilson hops out of the way. Morris(+1) and Loveland(+0.5) got the other blocks and Edwards is barely arm tackled by the last man. (CA, 3, screen, JJ push)
O25	1	10	Gun trips	1	2	2	4-3 even	5.5	Pass	Improv	Wilson	25
Barnhart(-1) and Zinter(-1) fail to pick up a stunt; looper is in clean. JJ dodges that guy and then loads up a deep over that Wilson is running into the endzone; perfect. (DO+, 3, protection 0/2, JJ +2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 2 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M34	1	10	I-Form	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	TE power	Corum	2
M blocks down with the whole line and pulls the TEs for a power run. Keegan(+1) washes his guy down the line a long distance; Henderson(+1) erases the backside LB. S adds to box; Johnson is supposed to crack him and does but he’s making contact a yard in the backfield. Barner(+0.5) has a difficult job with a DE playing this to spill; he turns the guy in and gives Corum the outside but he too is in the backfield a significant distance. Corum bounces and gets the corner, who he’s unable to shake. RPS –1.
M36	2	8	Gun 4-wide tight	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Pass	Dumpoff	Corum	Inc
Field side guys are both covered as LBs get to ten yards of depth; JJ decides to check down; reasonable, but he wings it high and it goes off Corum’s fingertips. (IN, 1, protection 2/2, JJ -1)
M36	3	8	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	TE hitch	Loveland	15
Protection excellent; JJ initially pumps as it looks like M is trying to get a CB to bite on a deep out and then hit Morris on a double move; covered. JJ comes off of it and starts climbing the pocket as Henderson’s guy eventually starts to come through. LB in the middle of the field starts chasing a Johnson drag, opening up Loveland for the conversion. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +1)
O49	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Power	Corum	5
Zinter(+0.5) and Barnhart double through a DT, who moves but not a ton. Keegan(+1) pulls and shoots through the POA, eventually putting his LB on the ground. Barner(+1) does the same thing to his single block; Morris(push) has to block down on a LB type who moved down to an awkward spot. Corum(+0.5) cuts into this; the combo of Corum and Morris pushing moves the LB and the two +1 blocks means immediate assistance is not forthcoming, so Corum grinds out five.
O44	2	5	Gun TTB	1	2	2	4-3 even	7.5	Run	Belly	Corum	5
Backside LB blitzes but checks JJ and then slips. Barner(+0.5) washes a guy down the line; looks like that guy may hold Henderson to prevent him from releasing to the MLB. Hard to tell but Henderson’s actions here are weird. Loveland(+0.5) gets a second level block and Corum(+0.5) grinds it out some more.
O39	1	10	Gun TTB	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Dig	Wilson	Inc
PA, no sale for the LBs. They all get ten yards of depth. JJ says screw it and uncorks a laser that is about 1-2 yards from a bad ass DO, but it’s behind Wilson by a yard or so. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, JJ -0.5)
O39	2	10	Gun 4-wide	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	Hitch	Barner	11
Double A gap picked up and both CBs are creeping back to cover 3 presnap, not sure if JJ sees this out of the corner of his eye but the decision on a hitch to Barner is quick. Ball gets there fast, too, and Barner has 3-4 yards of separation between himself and the defenders. Barner(+0.5) is able to grind out a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +1)
O28	1	10	Gun TTE	1	2	2	Nickel even	6.5	Run	Crack sweep	Edwards	9
Loveland(+0.5) cracks the DE; Barnhart(+1) pulls around and eliminates Haladay; Barner(-0.5) contacts a CB but doesn’t control him and gets shed; Nugent(+1) is quick to the second level and wipes the other LB. Edwards is about to go one on one with the S when Barner’s guy grabs him. RPS +1.
O19	2	1	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Split duo	Corum	5
Scrape exchange from MSU; DE does not attack sufficiently; he is able to burrow under Loveland but extends to take contact instead of trying to tackle, Hat -1. Zinter(+0.5) and Barnhart(+0.5) double a DT and get enough of him to provide a lane. Nugent(+1) erases a LB; Corum bangs into Barnhart as he’s about to release and Haladay fills from the side after initially checking JJ.
O14	1	10	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7.5	Pass	Sack	N/A	-8
M stacks the twin WRs and floods the outside; Wilson is open on a corner route by JJ does not throw it. Timer goes off and he tries to make something out of nothing; Brule chases him and JJ should just chuck the ball out of bounds, flip, style, but tries to reverse field and gets sacked. (TAX, N/A, protection 2/2, JJ -2)
O22	2	18	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	5.5	Pass	TE seam	Loveland	22
MSU jumps; free play. Loveland drives at Grose; Grose opens his hips, turning to the inside of the field. Loveland extends outside a step or two and then gets his head around. Grose decides to flip his hips, turning towards the endzone to maintain speed, and by the time he is once again facing Loveland, it’s too late. (DO, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +2, Loveland route +)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-0, 11 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Pistol FB trips	2	1	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Power GT	Corum	5
M motions into a set with all three guys in the trips on the LOS, then flares out Edwards; Brule goes with him and that appears to equal handoff. DE checks JJ so hats for hats. Other DE is trying to spill; Keegan(+1) blows him out of there. Barnhart(-1) whiffs on his chip and the DT does not get adequately dealt with. Corum(+0.5) feints outside and sucks a LB out, then tries to hit the gap. DE checking JJ can recover in time now and the DT is able to slow Corum as he fights playside of Zinter.
M26	2	5	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	Split zone	Edwards	4
LBs blitz; Zinter(+1) fires a slanting DE way across the line. Unfortunately Nugent trips on the DE’s feet as he doesn’t get out to the LB fast, instead choosing to let the guy come to him. Barnhart(+0.5) IDs the blitz and harasses a LB. Edwards hits the gap Zinter created, Brule hops on him but is flat-footed a yard downfield.
M30	3	1	Gun twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	8	Run	Zone keeper	McCarthy	0
This seems like a massively biffed read to the point where I wonder if Wilson screwed up. He pulls across the formation to be come the split blocker and actually hammers a DE who’s charging inside; JJ pulls and is 2 v 1 on the edge, he cuts back but can only get back to the LOS. This makes more sense if Wilson is supposed to arc here. Handoff looks like an easy conversion. Wilson –2? I think so. I'm punting on grading JJ here.
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-0, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O48	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	TE hitch	Barner	7
MSU tips their double A blitz presnap; JJ gets out a hot route to Barner. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5, RPS +1)
O41	2	3	Gun twins	1	2	2	Nickel over	7	Run	Duo	Corum	2
Keegan(+0.5) gets some push on a DT by himself; Loveland(-0.5) can’t cut off the backside DE, who narrows the gap and gets in an ankle tackle attempt. Nugent is never going to have an angle on the LB after releasing if the play hits over to the left unless said LB jams his face into the line; no such luck. This is 2.5 yards so a successful run in the circumstances.
O39	3	1	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 over	8.5	Run	Dive	Corum	2
Nugent(+0.5 ) and Zinter(+0.5) stall out an attempted dive at the legs and Barner(+1) clears out a DE for the room.
O37	1	10	Pistol 4-wide tight	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Crack sweep	Edwards	-2
Barner(+0.5) gets his crack block on the end but mirrors the guy as he goes up field a bit and Henderson has to step around this. Johnson(-2) checks on the playside LB and then goes to the safety; this is leaving the more dangerous player. Edwards(-2) has a fair bit of space here in which he can put his foot in the ground and get vertical as Haladay tries to chase him inside out; he never does. I wonder about Keegan here; seems to release too vertical.
O39	2	12	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 even SAM	8	Pass	Scramble	McCarthy	17
Zinter(-2) doesn’t read the blitz and lets looper through free. JJ(+1 run) breaks that tackle and breaks the pocket. He should dump it to Edwards in space for a bigger gain but instead decides to run it; since this is an easy first down we’ll call it good. (SCR, N/A, protection 0/2)
O22	1	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	Duo	Edwards	0
M eats the double A gap this time; Henderson and Keegan are doubling a DT and Nugent has both guys himself. Nugent(+1) does an admirable job to hit one and then come off on the other; Keegan(-2) never sees it and does not slide over to pick up the first guy Nugent delayed. TFL. RPS -2.
O22	2	10	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	TE seam	Loveland	22
Barner motion pulls Grose wider and puts Loveland in a seam matchup against Haladay trying to drop into a zone. Haladay turns his back and goes choo choo as fast as he can, and JJ just flings it past his earhole for a TD. (DO, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +3)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-0, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Hitch	Johnson	8
CB goes into bail technique; CJ breaks his route off, immediate hit, out of bounds. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5).
M28	2	2	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Edwards	3
JJ appears to get through three reads here and then hesitates; he doesn’t get to Morris wide open on a hitch; instead he checks it down to Edwards. Sticks move, clock stops, at least, (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ push)
M31	1	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	Fade	Morris	Inc
1:16 on snap. Dropback, Morris runs right by a CB, who falls; JJ puts it on a line and misses high. Historically the JJ deep ball problem: he doesn’t put enough air under it. DB didn’t fall until the ball was in the air, FWIW. (IN, 1, protection 2/2, JJ -1)
M31	2	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	5.5	Pass	TE flat	Barner	11
Barner(+1) grabs a five yard pass and then stiffarms a DB to the ground, spins off that tackle, and gets the first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5)
M42	1	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	Post	Morris	Inc
OMG I want this to be Edwards on an angle route against Haladay; instead JJ loads up and, uh, nails Morris 25 yards downfield; Morris drops it. (DO, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +2)
M42	2	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	Out	Barner	Inc
Throw is fine, but Barner is a TE and he’s got a DB on him and that guy makes a nice play to anticipate the route and PBU it. I don’t love this decision as he’s got Wilson and Edwards available but Henderson(-1) does get shot backwards by the DT on a twist and JJ is getting pressure. (MA, 0, protection ½, JJ push)
M42	3	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	Dig	Loveland	20
Loveland releases as if he’s going to hit the seam and then stops and rips inside a DB with inside leverage; ball game. JJ fires it in. Protection a little dodgy as a looping 9 tech gets some pressure but Keegan hits him and this took a long time. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +1, Loveland route+)
O38	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	Inside zone	Edwards	6
Wide splits here from the DTs and M could really hit this but does not as Zinter(-1) does not meaningfully chip one of those DTs; he’s able to burrow in against Barnhart and force Edwards to cut back. Edwards(+0.5) cuts back inside and almost makes Haladay miss but not quite. Keegan(+0.5) turned out the other DT with help from Nugent. Loveland(+0.5) got a kickout. M takes TO after.
O32	2	4	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	5	Pass	Pivot	Barner	23
This is wild, as Barner(route+) gets one on one coverage with a CB and beats him on the pivot so badly that he gets 15(!) YAC. This guy isn’t good but still. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
O10	1	G	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Edwards	6
26 on snap. JJ checks down to Edwards. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5)
O4	2	G	Gun 4-wide tight	1	1	3	???	11	Pass	TE out	Barner	4 (Pen -5)
Barner immediately into the flat, throw, TD. (CA, 3, protection N/A, JJ +0.5, RPS +1). Edwards resetting for no reason blows it all up. Edwards -1.
Drive Notes: EOH, 28-0
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M35	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Run	Counter	Corum	12 + 30 pen
Counter step gets Haladay stepping the wrong way, RPS +1; Zinter(+1) pulls and neutralizes an end trying to shoot inside of him; Barner(+1) fires in Brule, who did not hold the edge. Easy bounce for Corum, who gets a first down, then gets a late hit. Also: illegal hands to the face. Hat -4. Henderson(+0.5) got enough of Haladay after the false step and Johnson(+0.5) cracked a safety.
O23	1	10	Gun trips TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7.5	Run	Split zone	Corum	1 +11 pen
DE flies outside of Barner; Barner passes him up and Bredeson(+0.5) kicks him. DT also hops outside a gap; Henderson(-1) can’t do much with this and lets him occupy the outside gap; then he leaves. Keegan(-1) blasted back by a LB blitz and Corum can’t cut away from the DT so he gets tackled for a minimal gain… by the facemask. (RPS -1, Hat -2)
O11	1	10	Gun TTB	1	3	1	4-3 even	8.5	Pass	Waggle cross	Barner	11
PA, waggle, big bites, JJ lays it in. (CA, 3, protection N/A, JJ +0.5, RPS +2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 42-0, 6 min 3rd Q. Tuttle time ensues with full backups minus some WR snaps.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M14	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Power	Hall	0
WLB is flared out over the slot a bit ; Hinton(-1) has to know that he needs to climb to the MLB. He’s probably not going to make it because of LB flowing fast but this play has no shot as soon as he chips a guy and extends to the WLB. El-Hadi(+0.5) gets a decent controlling block on a DE and Beetham(-1) gets confused as he’s got two guys to block and blocks neither. Hall does well not to get TFLed. RPS is off, but RPS.
M14	2	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Hitch	Johnson	7
Quick pitch and catch against press; ball is a bit off and takes CJ off his feet. (MA, 3, protection 1/1, Tuttle -0.5)
M21	3	3	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Drag?	Johnson?	Inc
El-Hadi(-2) beat more or less clean up the gut and Tuttle’s pass is deflected about an instant after it leaves his hand. This could be to Johnson (bad idea) or Beetham (good idea). (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 42-0, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Gun trips TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Run	Split duo	Hall	3
Both doubles are pretty meh, getting some depth but just a yard and providing no obvious lane; Jones(+1) does get a good one on one kickout on a DE that moves him. Hall runs up the back of the doubles for 3.
M13	2	7	Gun quads?	1	1	3	???	?	Pass	Bubble screen	Morgan	18
MSU has his dead to rights with Morris(-1) and Clemons(-1) whiffing blocks on DBs who are crashing the play (RPS -1); Morgan(+2) dodges the interior tackler to prevent a loss, then breaks a Haladay tackle as he reverses field; Hall picks up one of those I’m Not Getting A 15 Yard Penalty Blocks to spring him for the first down. (CA, 3, screen)
M31	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even SAM	7	Run	Split duo	Hall	4
Persi(-2) wants to double a DT who hops outside for Hinton(+0.5) to kick out; he whiffs on a LB who is looping inside of this. Hall has to cut away. El-Hadi(+1) fires in a guy mostly by himself; Jones(-1) doesn’t pick up another looper; Crippen(+0.5) leaves said looper to get the MLB. Hall(+0.5) grinds out a couple YAC.
M35	2	6	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even SAM	7	Pass	Dig	Morgan	24
Whole underneath level chases a drag so this is just Morgan one on one with a guy with outside leverage and he wins that easily; Tuttle puts it on him, mostly, slightly behind; Morgan makes the catch, breaks a tackle(+1) and then gets lit up by the safety. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O41	1	10	Gun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Pass	Bubble screen RPO	Morgan	0 (Pen -15)
PNP the other way; El-Hadi gets an unfortunate tripping penalty as the DT dodges his cut block and El-Hadi inadvertently sticks a foot up as he flips on the ground. I’m not going to ding this since I don’t think it’s relevant to projections for next year. Morris(-2) on the other hand gets blown up and run through; this is open as long as Morgan can pop outside but the block here is so bad it’s like it doesn’t exist.
M44	1	25	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	Split zone	Franklin	5 (Pen -10)
MSU doesn’t set an edge and Franklin pops outside; MSU has a safety sitting at 11 yards who fires on the run action and cuts Franklin down after a moderate gain. Corum and Edwards go nuts with this. Persi(-0.5) controlled and gives up a yard of depth; Beetham(-1) is the guy who gets the edge, but gets called for a hold; Hinton(+0.5) gets a second level block.
M34	1	35	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Wheel-stop	Klein	8
Klein sits down at about five yards and Tuttle hits him; this should be more but Klein(-0.5) just kind of falls down, losing 2-3 YAC. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M42	2	27	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	5.5	Pass	Dumpoff	Franklin	6
Checkdown; Franklin lit up immediately. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M48	3	21	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	4	Pass	Scramble	Tuttle	2 – 15 pen
Tuttle gets happy feet in a clean pocket and bugs out for a minimal gain. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2, Tuttle -1) Dunlap gets a late hit call that doesn’t happen if this isn’t 42-0.
Drive Notes: Punt, 42-0, 10 min 4th Q. Last two drives not charted. Here’s the Orji near-TD, and the Orij TD.

Hey.

Hey.

Anything going on?

Yes, but not what you think. I've got a doozy for you.

I dread these words.

That's your lot in life, bolded alter-ego. Here you go.

Can Michigan win the national championsh…

…

I'm not reading this.

You are my puppet! You do what I please!

I may be a puppet, but I have self-respect. I do not have to pretend that I hold the view "JJ McCarthy is a game manager" just because GoBerks69420 said so on The O-Zone.

A person who is paid to talk about college football said that.

Oh… goddammit. Fine, but I'm gonna Grabthar's Hammer this.

We're waiting.

JUST GIVE ME A DANG MINUTE.

…

Can Michigan win the national championship with a… game manager at quarterback?

What in the name of God are you going on about?

You told me to—

Have you ever watched a football game, let alone one involving 2023 JJ McCarthy?

Look—

I am astounded. That is without question the dumbest take this series has ever attempted to tackle in it's 15-year-long run. That included the Rich Rod years. The Hoke years! You are malfunctioning and must be scrapped.

I'm not a ro—

But before you're turned into a pile of broken circuit boards, I am going to show you how wrong you are. You will meet your maker knowing just how little ball you know, oh supposed knower of ball.

Aren't you my—

Silence! First we will set out to define a game manager! A game manager is a quarterback who plays for a team with a great running game and great defense. His job is to check into the right plays, hand the ball off most of the time, complete a reasonable number of passes, and never ever turn the ball over. In pursuit of this he just dumps the ball out of bounds whenever it's not there or he gets pressure. He is fine because he gets protection and has some good receivers but he rarely, if ever, does anything big time.

Okay—

Silence! Now we will dump all the relevant PFF stats into a list! JJ McCarthy is:

• 7th nationally in Big Time Throw rate, out of 155 qualifying QBs with at least 100 attempts.
• 3rd in yards per attempt.
• 3rd in yards per attempt when pressured.
• 4th in completion percentage when pressured.
• 1st in Big Time Throw rate when pressured.
• 2nd in YPA when blitzed.
• 4th in completion percentage when blitzed.
• 91st in percentage of play action passes.

FOH.

We get the—

Silence! Here are some clips! From one game!

Also.

Also!

ALSOOOOOOOOO

ARE YOU ON DRUGS

No. I am merely repeating the argument of someone on drugs. Perhaps you might have some sort of explanatory device in which you list all of McCarthy's throws in an effort to determine how well he's playing?

Ah, yes, I do have that.

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
East Carolina	6+	14(2)++++				5				2			91%	+20		0/0	0/0
UNLV	2	15++	1		1	1				1			95%	+12.5		0/0	1/3
Bowling Green	1	6+	1		1	1				3**	2**		61%	-3		0/0	2/2
Rutgers	3	13++(1)	3		1				1	3	1		79%	+12		0/0	3/4
Nebraska	3+	10+	1		1	1				1			94%	+13		0/1	3/3
Minnesota	1	11+(2)			1	1				3			80%	+8.5		2/2	3/3
Indiana	2	11+++(1)	2		2	3			1				94%	+15		0/0	3/4
MSU	5+	15(1)	1			2			1*	3			87%	+13		0/1	1/1

(Run +/- is in the other chart; the above is solely a passing/decisions grade.)

Ye gods. We have one TA* for the run-around sack McCarthy took, three INs—the Corum dumpoff overthrow, the Morris overthrow, and a ball a yard or two behind Wilson—and the rest is golden. I embedded a number of McCarthy's wow plays above.

And while McCarthy's throw for the first Loveland touchdown is less obviously a wow play, I submit that it is a wow play, from both Loveland and McCarthy. Just watch the route about six times.

Loveland has a jab step inside that gets Grose to turn his hips, then drifts back outside. Grose is now thinking "oh shit" and decides he has to flip back to the outside, which means he has to turn all the way around if he's going to maintain any speed. At this point Loveland turns back to the inside and the ball is right there. Nobody is defending that. The ball is halfway there when Loveland turns around, and it feels like McCarthy knew Grose was dead as soon as he turned his hips inside.

Even McCarthy's odd whiffs were "almost" sorts of things. He zings this a yard or two behind Wilson but this is first down play action where nobody bites and the window is non-obvious; McCarthy finds it and just barely misses another DO:

There's also been some assertions on the internet that McCarthy's miss to Morris in the two minute drill was more of a Morris thing than a McCarthy thing, and those might be right. If you watch Morris's route it doesn't feel like he's really going all out at any point:

I charged that to McCarthy but there is some merit in believing that a redshirt freshman WR may have been the issue there.

Okay, but what about the Controversial Pull and Controversial Throw?

McCarthy did have a bad pull on a third and one that was odd on review. Michigan's using Roman Wilson as a split flow blocker here and he engages with the charging DE. After zaprudering this it really looks like the guy McCarthy reads is… the same DE.

These signals are crossed. Either Wilson is supposed to arc this guy and get out on the edge or McCarthy's read should not actually be live. I charged this to Wilson and did not file this as a zone read positive or negative; YMMV.

Meanwhile, the dodgy completion to Barner:

I was less sanguine about this one than the Indiana incident largely because Barner is open and McCarthy hitches up twice before getting to him. Ball should be out now:

Instead of letting it rip he resets his feet and lets it rip, leading to the near-PBU. I filed this as an MA; unnecessarily dangerous but still a completion. Nice job by Barner to not lose concentration when Brule flashes in front of him. Speaking of Barner…

He does catch things now?

He does, and this time I actually clipped his YAC events. The first one is fairly typical "is a tight end" stuff but Barner's done this three or so times this year:

His ability to tough out an extra yard or two while being tackled is occasionally very useful. And then there's this:

He has an agility that's not commonly paired with +++ blocking. Later on that drive he got matched up with Chester Kimbrough, a cornerback who's started on and off for MSU for three years, and got so wide open on a pivot route that he rumbled for 15 YAC:

Kimbrough is very bad—48 coverage grade on PFF—but we're grading on a TE-vs-CB curve. Barner isn't Loveland but neither should he be pigeonholed as a blocking tight end. He's been a 1-for-1 replacement for Schoonmaker, more or less.

Schoonmaker was a second round pick!

I'm not sure how Barner's going to test but if he's in the same range as Schoonmaker he will go on day two of the draft. Here's some more blocking bits:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Henderson	5	1	+4	Chugging along, being pretty all right.
Keegan	5.5	4.5	+1	Got shed a couple of times.
Nugent	6		+6	Excellent picking up twist blitzes.
Zinter	7	3	+4	Another –2 for getting shed, but otherwise good.
Barnhart	4	3	+1	Eh.
Jones	1	1	+0	Garbage time, not in total.
Persi		2.5	-2.5	Not in total.
El-Hadi	1.5		+1.5	Not in total.
Crippen	0.5	0.5	+0	Not in total.
Bredeson	0.5		+0.5	Reduced role; just 9 snaps.
Barner	6	1	+5	Also +1.5 YAC.
Loveland	2	0.5	+1.5
Beetham		2	-2	Not in total.
Marshall				DNP
TOTAL	36	13	73%	Slight step back.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McCarthy	1		+1	One scramble.
Orji				DNC
Tuttle				DNC
Corum	2.5	1	+1.5	Some odd +0.5s but nothing big.
Edwards	1.5	3	-1.5	One nice screen and one missed cut.
Mullings				DNP
Hall	0.5		+0.5
TOTAL	5.5	4	+1.5
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Johnson	1.5	2	-0.5
Wilson		3	-3	Charged the third and one failure to him, FWIW.
Morris	2	3	-1	All three minuses in Tuttle Time, FWIW.
Clemons		1	-1	Same.
Morgan	3		+3	Eyes coming out his butt.
Moore				DNC
TOTAL	3.5	5	-1.5	Tuttle Time stuff not in total.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	37	5	88%	-3 Zinter, –1 Barnhart, –1 Henderson
RPS	12	9	+3	Eh.

So here's the recipe for a relatively moribund (Corum 15 for 59, Edwards 6 for 14) running game: get decent but not great blocking, have your wide receivers blow some stuff, and get very little out of the running backs. If there's a concern after a 49-0 drubbing of a rival it's that the running backs don't appear to be rounding into their 2022 form. There have been brief asides in a majority of UFRs about how Corum and Edwards aren't doing last year things but surely they'll start doing them again once the rust is knocked off.

This does not appear to be happening. Corum still isn't the same back he was a year ago. Last year I don't know if this meh MSU cornerback even touches Corum:

I don't think we've seen any laundry on the deck this year after he was doing it on a weekly basis last year.

Similarly, I had an Edwards complaint on the crack sweep that didn't come off. Dude, put your foot in the ground:

Cal Haladay's chasing you inside out, you have to test his change of direction instead of just running straight into a bunch of nothing.

Corum's been good; last year he was incredible. I'm reaching It Is What It Is stage here. This was game eight. Not a lot of runway left.

On the bright side?

Pass protection was incredible. McCarthy got pressured on approximately two plays, which he turned into a touchdown and a 17 yard scramble. Everything else featured pockets McCarthy could have had a bath in.

Also, hello Drake Nugent. We haven't really talked about Nugent much this year except to say that his relative lack of grading around here is more about circumstance than performance. Still, it took about five games before I was declaring Olu Oluwatimi the Rimington winner, and Nugent has not fielded that level of chatter. I do think he's quite good; Michigan has been about as organized as they were a year ago and Nugent personally is adept at picking up whatever the opposition throws at him. I thought this stunt pickup in the low redzone was impressive:

C #60

He shoves the slanter over so that Zinter can pick him up and then pops off on the looper. Here is a +1. He did a similar thing on a double-A-gap blitz later, but Keegan never picked up the guy Nugent left:

C #60

MSU went back to the hits in this game, running that twist blitz over and over, and Nugent handled it with aplomb. Everyone else on the line save Henderson has a long track record of performance at Michigan, so their game-to-game scores are kind of shrug-worthy. Keegan is going to Keegan; Zinter is going to Zinter. Nugent putting up a +6 with no minuses against a bunch of blitzes is reassuring. He finally got tested and passed with flying colors.

I notice the RPS number is still positive even in the post-Stalions era.

Once again I would like to emphasize the general unknowability of whether sign stealing is efficacious. Michigan got stuck in a third and long because of back to back plays which ate big RPS minuses. The first was a windback that was doomed because Brule hung back at the LOS and ate Edwards in the backfield, and on the next play Brule was sitting on Michigan's TE delay:

If you were inclined you could interpret this as MSU getting Michigan's signs; more likely they left a spy in because of Michigan's tendencies and rolled a critical hit. This is inevitably going to happen over the course of a football game. It only gets suspicious when you've got a neverending string of RPS hits, which hasn't happened on either side of the ball this year.

Meanwhile Michigan got to a +3 in RPS in barely over a half of football. It should be noted that Michigan didn't pull any weird stuff out of the barn for this one. No flea-flickers, no new run plays, one snap with both Corum and Edwards on the field. They just ran their stuff, more or less.

The one potential exception is crack sweep. We're getting enough crack variations that it's clear it's going to be a relative staple:

Michigan ran three in this game, gaining 7, 9, and –2 yards; the –2 event got charged to Johnson and Edwards. When it works it is an easy crack block for your less-blocky tight end and then Barnhart and Barner in space:

Teams started sitting on this later in crack sweep's first run under Harbaugh, but I don't think they can reasonably do this again because they will eat duo and die when they are wrong.

In the passing game, what popped up from time to time were MSU attempts to zone that went badly. Michigan's third and four conversion on their first drive was either a brilliant Michigan gambit or Michigan State just dorfing a coverage. It kind of feels like both? Wilson goes in motion to confirm it's zone and then the MSU linebackers drop ten yards deep on third and four:

Then you have Cal Haladay trying to keep up with Roman Wilson. In a word: no.

You just clipped this play so you could say Haladay is slow for the millionth time.

Untrue. That is merely one a of a few different reasons I clipped this play. Cal Haladay is molasses in a human suit. Cal Haladay is still competing in the 100 meter dash from the Atlanta Olypmics. Cal Haladay runs like he's chasing the man who kidnapped one of his garbage sons.

WE GET IT

Cal Haladay is slow. He is not fast.

MOVE ON

Fine. I continue to desire more Donovan Edwards College Crappe in the offense. This is a hell of a way to convert a third and thirteen:

I don't think Michigan's even trying to convert there; they're on the MSU 39 and they're either trying to set up a makeable fourth down in no-man's-land or handing a 50-yard attempt over to James Turner. Edwards has the jets to make it all the way, because he's Donovan Edwards. One thing the Semaj Morgan package makes clear is that Michigan does have a bunch of College Crappe in the offense, but I had just one play in this game featuring both Edwards and Corum. If there's one thing I hope they spent a bunch of time on in the bye week it's unleashing the Corum/Edwards double-headed tailback of doom.

Similarly, the Orji stuff late was interesting because they do have this stuff in the playbook:

They have not used it much to date because these are the kind of QB runs on which you're not getting out of bounds, but when push comes to shove against OSU I would not be surprised to see items like this become more prominent.

 

 

What's with the TEs running into the flat, though?

I don't know. For the second straight week a Michigan run play was blown up in part because they ran a tight end into the flat and nobody from the front seven went with him:

Against Indiana this was from the pistol and McCarthy turned around to hand the ball off, resulting in an RPS minus; this week McCarthy was in the gun and (presumably) had the option to toss it to Loveland, resulting in an RPO minus. The Indiana play made no sense; this one would have been fine if McCarthy threw the ball.  Maybe against Purdue it'll come off.

Receivers?

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson				3/3		4	2/3	2/2	17/18
Wilson	1	0/1		2/2		1	1/5	3/3	20/20
Morris	1			0/1		1	0/2		4/5
Moore				1/1		3		1/1	2/2
Clemons						1			3/3
Morgan				3/3			1/1		7/8
O'Leary									1/1
Loveland				4/4		2		2/2	17/19
Barner			2/2	7/7		2	0/1	2/2	15/15
Bredeson									2/2
English									1/1
Klein				1/1					1/1
Corum		0/1		2/2		1	0/1		6/6
Edwards				3/3				1/2	13/14
Mullings									1/1
Hall
Stokes

Routes: Barner+, Loveland++

Again, marvel at the near-total lack of circus/tough opportunities.

Any notable items from Tuttle Time?

Just one. Semaj Morgan was once again impressive. His big gain on the bubble screen was all him, as MSU jumped it and Morgan was able to use his spooky situational awareness to immediately abort and reverse field:

Look at this!

There is no way Morgan has any idea that the play is very very dead and the first thing he does is run away from the play design. This could start backfiring if he's pressing the abort button on plays that are well set up, but so far so good. I believe that Morgan can sense auras or somesuch thing and will not be dissuaded from this until his first step is the wrong way.

We also got another Not Just A Gadget Guy data point:

As the Michigan fandom's foremost proponent of wee fellas, I welcome this development.

Heroes?

McCarthy, Nugent, Barner, Loveland.

Maybe not so heroic?

The running backs need to make some plays.

What does it mean for Purdue and beyond?

McCarthy is on fire. Ridiculous game from him. Hit several NFL windows. No bad reads since Rutgers. Anticipating his guys are going to be open based on the body posture of defenders. Game manager.

McCarthy is the crutch the run game has to lean on. It's not the same as the last couple years, and that's fine. But we should admit it. This is not a reverse jinx.

AJ Barner should be all Big Ten. He's the best blocker in the conference and look at him doing all the receiving stuff in this game. He won't be All Big Ten because he won't have the catches and yardage but there's no one in the conference I'm trading for him.

Nugent: good. Not Olu, but good.

Semaj is a guy meter increments. Two more impressive plays to bring his season total to five or six.