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Upon Further Review 2023: Defense vs Indiana Comment Count

Seth October 18th, 2023 at 9:00 AM

UFR GLOSSARY is here.

FORMATION NOTES: For personnel counting purposes I treated Jaylin Lucas as WR unless he was the lone back and called him the A-back for labeling purposes. Once again parentheticals are covered receivers, e.g. Gun 2RB Twins (Y).

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This also got orbit motion from Lucas but the motion tags were making the tables look awful so "A-orbit" is in the description. I called this formation "Empty 4x1 Flex." I called Michigan's front "Nk Eagle." Also Michigan is playing a safety at Durkin depth for some reason. I put an asterisk next to the "1" in the "Hi" field when that happened.

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[After THE JUMP: Diagnosis of a Blowout 7: The Annoying Snags.]

Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Str RB 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 off PRO n/a ARO/Stretch Harrell Inc -0.70
M rolls down to the field side, Harrell(+1, cov+2) drops into the flat, picks up the hitch they want to throw this to, and the flag on top is bracketed. Jenkins(+1) peeled off the backside of the run to pressure, which induces a throwaway. Colson failed to pick up a dig coming from the backside but that throw doesn't pass my "Could JJ throw that?" test. Sus eyes. RPS+1
O25 2nd 10 Gun 2RB Twins (Y) 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 off Play-action 4 A-Flare Wallace -1 -0.39
A-orbit. M has a split coverage that puts safeties on top of both vertical routes (Cov+2, RPS+2) so Jackson has to dump it to Lucas. Wallace(+1) meets him five yards in the backfield because the pass is so slow (Hat-1) and plays it safe, setting up outside and getting him down a yard short of the LOS.
O24 3rd 11 Offset Str 4-2-5 Okie 1 1 off Pass 5 Fly Wallace Inc -0.13
Blitz gets home with Paige(+1) unblocked (RPS+1), in part because McGregor(+1) put the LT on his ass. That would be a blindside sack but on the frontside Barrett(+1, PR+3) is around the RB quick and clean so Jackson turfs it at the feet of a double-move that Wallace(-1, cov-1) had bitten on. Non-harsh grade because you favor short stuff on a blitz.
Drive Notes: Punt. 14 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O24 1st 10 Gun Wk RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 offf Pass 4 Hitch Wallace 6 0.32
They hit underneath the off coverage. Cov push, RPS-1, Wallace(tackling+1) reacts on time and tackles without YAC.
O30 2nd 4 Gun Wk Tight 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 off Run   Split Dart D.Moore 2 -0.53
Wrapper the TE and try to shoot the LG around the C's block on Grant(+1) who holds up so that D-Mo(+2) can submarine the LT and flow to the RB.
O32 3rd 2 Offset 3x1 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 press Pass 4 TE Curl Moore 10 1.79
This is bait. Michigan has Moore(-2, cov-1, tackling-1) sets up high over this TE then steps down trying to time it for a PBU. Except he's a beat late to react. TE gets some free YAC because Rod was going for the ball.
O42 1st 10 Gun Wk RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 off Pass 4 Snag D.Moore 15 1.21
Annoying quick snag 1. Live I thought it was on Colson but he's carrying the inside of a TE and steps down in time. D-Mo(-2, cov-2) dropped into a hole and played the flat that Sainristil is over.
M43 1st 10 Gun Str Bunch 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 fld PRO n/a ARO/Stretch Colson Inc -0.94
Tempo(21). I let Colson(-1, cov-push) off last time so this time he gets a ding for allowing a WR cross behind him and then ever so subtly flattens out instead of trying to make a play on the ball. This creates a window but it's not very big because Moore(+1) read Jackson and is coming to cut this off so the throw it inside. WR (Hat-1) overruns it and can't bring it in. Better reaction from Colson and this is a pick. "Kyle" the pedantic ref throws a heinous illegal formation flag that the others tell him to pick up.
M43 2nd 10 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Eagle 1 off Pass 4 Z-In Barrett 7 0.51
Don't know if this was RPS because Barrett(-1, cov-2) was in some sort of man or cone on the slot, but Colson is stepping in to cut this off and Barrett doesn't check if the Z is coming inside of him. Johnson(-1) was playing way off and can only get the WR to turn into Barrett, which is the difference between 3rd & 5 and 3rd & 3.
M36 3rd 3 Gun 2x2 H-Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 press RPO   Duo/Bubble Colson 7 1.00
M slants which gets Graham(-0.5) washed by a double. Goode(+2) sees where it's going and comes around the LT and gets hooked (Refs-1) or else he's got a monster TFL. Colson(-2) allows himself to get pressed instead of playing his assignment; he has Moore behind him and just needs to fill that hole to get the stop. RPS+1 Michigan was +1 in the box.
M29 1st 10 Gun 2x2 H-Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 press Play-action 4 Flare Sainristil 5 0.08
Token PA, no bites. McGregor(+1, PR+1) beats the LT clean inside so this has to be out to the flare. Sainristil(-1, cov-1) is playing this very soft and doesn't react like himself, probably trying to anticipate a fakey. He can't get to the WR until he's turned the corner and then gets stiffarmed while getting the WR OOB.
M24 2nd 5 Gun Str Bunch R-Exit 4-2-5 5-1 Odd 1.5 off Pass 5 Snag Harrell 10 0.16
M motions late to a 5-1 and amoebas but Harrell(-2, cov-2) goes immediately to the flat of his curl-flat zone, which leaves the curl open behind him as he covers grass. Cover 3 coaches feel free to steal this clip to teach your kids why the way you get to your curl-flat zone is as important as getting to it.
M14 1st 10 Gun 2RB Twins (Y) 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 bdy Run   Power 3O Dive D.Moore 4 -0.02
M is slanting (RPS-1) out of this gap. D-Mo(+1) fights through a TE to hold it down.
M10 2nd 6 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 press Run   Pwr Option Stewart -1 -0.40
Well-played all around. Stewart(+1) is the option man, redirects and forces an early pitch, then pursues all the way to the backfield. Nowhere to go because Hausmann(+1) ran over McCulley and Wallace(+2, tackling+1) runs up past a TE and sticks for a loss.
M11 3rd 7 Gun Str RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 fld Penalty   False Start n/a (-5) -0.44
Oops.
M16 3rd 12 Gun 3x1 RB 4-2-5 Nk Eagle A 2 press Pass 4 TE Curl Sainristil INT -5.94
I do not I agree with Vance Bedford that Sainristil(+2, cov+3) left the WR open on a fade. Results-based charting, yes. But he is reading the QB's eyes and knows the TE is coming across and that's what he's playing. Or I guess that was Moore's job if the #3 receiver sits? Hard to see Moore getting over that. Anyway we never find out because either the ball sails or Jackson's not expecting the TE to stop running but Sainristil tips it in the air for Moore(+1) to pick off. Barrett(gold star) gets out to lead block and shoves an OL to the ground. RPS-1 I guess for Moore's explanation of a coverage that would have been laced.
Drive Notes: Interception. 0-0. 6 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O23 1st 10 Pistol FB 4-2-5 4-3 Over 2 fld Run   Double Arc Hausmann 7 0.57
Sorsby in, Lucas is the offset (FB). Harrell(-0.5) steps in a little too far but pursues well enough. Colson(-1) buries himself in the line not watching the ball at all but is he supposed to? Hausmann(+1) gets across ta TE who was flaring on him and puts him in the backfield and that should have the QB bottled up except Harris(-1) gets kicked by the WR to create some room to turn the corner. Sabb(+1) screams down and takes out the lead blocker (Lucas) and initiates the tackle.
O30 2nd 3 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Under 1 press Pass 5 ARO Comeback Sainristil Inc -0.93
They want this RB on the rollout, which nullifies most of the blitz but leaves McGregor(+1, PR+1) alone with a TE he discards and shoots up into Sorsby. Hausmann(+1, cov+1) picks up the RB who's also running towards Q-Jo as the rat so Sorsby chucks it underneath at a WR that Sainristil was staying atop of. Ball is nearly catchable on a diving comeback for 6 yards, so not going to ding Sainristil for that part. Hat+1 he threw a catchable ball while falling down.
O30 3rd 3 Gun Wk Z-Fly 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 bdy PRO n/a Scramble/Down G Sainristil 16 2.38
Michigan has this dead to rights with a slant and double blitz off the backside (RPS+2) that rolls Moore towards the bubble. I'd like Colson to have some sort of sense that he should stop booking out to the bubble but that's asking for a + not a negative. The guy who does try to go off-script is Sainristil(-2), who leaves his feet on a pump fake towards a side where Michigan outnumbers IU 4 to 3. It goes extra long because Hausmann(-1) was burying himself in the LOS to stop the run action and unlike Colson he is facing the play so by this late in events he should know where the ball is.
O46 1st 10 Pistol FB 4-2-5 4-3 Over 2 fld Run   Double Arc Graham 3 -0.42
Finally they force a play to the DTs. Harrell(+1) won't get fooled again and cuts off his slant pursuit to force a give. Jenkins(+1) holds up a play-long double, Grant(+1) stands up the RG in the backfield after the C releases, and Turner hits a wall of his old teammates. Good times.
O49 2nd 7 Empty 4x1 Flex 4-2-5 Nk Eagle 1* fld Pass n/a Smoke Screen Johnson 6 0.37
Tempo(24). Q-Jo(-1) doesn't react to this until the ball is almost to the hash and gets locked out by a TE. Sainristil(+1, Refs-2) has the edge but WR has both of his shoulderpads as Lucas gets around him--You can actually see Kyle putting his hand on his flag. Johnson(+2) has Turner doing the same and rides him into Lucas's path.
M45 3rd 1 Goal 4-2-5 Goal 1 off Run   Tush Push Benny 1 0.82
Grant(+0.5) and Benny(+0.5) and D-Mo(+0.5) stall out the OL and Sorsby is well short initially until the tush push gets him another foot closer and Sainristil(+1) finds the ball and keeps it short. Refs-1 let him have it; should have been 4th and inches.
M44 1st 10 Gun 3x1 R-Slide 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 fld Pass 4 Double Pass Sabb 44 3.38
Tempo(19). Johnson is showing a blitz but goes into trap coverage. Barrett(gold star) is pointing at Sabb(-4, cov-4) to get out over the receiver, which he has time to do because the throw is low and almost dropped. Sabb doesn't listen, and is down and even with Barrett when the camera shifts to the wide open guy downfield. EO1Q.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 0-7. 2 min 1st Q. Maybe we'll be less annoyed if we count 1st downs versus turnovers from here.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O32 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 off Pass 4 Snag Colson 6 0.39
Annoying quick snag 3. This time it's under Colson but Barrett has a threat in the flat so this is just a Cover 3 hole they have well-time. Cov-1, RPS-1.
O38 2nd 4 Gun 2x2 H-Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 off Run   3O Give Graham 6 0.76
Double moves Graham(-1), Stewart(+0.5) closes in quickly enough. That's one first down.
O44 1st 10 Empty 4x1 Flex 4-2-5 Nk Eagle 1 fld Run   QB Draw Graham 6 0.39
Tempo(27). Very close to a TFL as Grant(+2) shoves a G back and disengages and Sorsby has to cut off his draw. Graham(-1) cuts off his stunt when he sees the draw. D-Mo(-1) has a chance since he's coming inside but his paw falls off Sorsby's back without catching jersey and this is a gamble that allows Sorsby an exit. Now it's a footrace to the sideline that Graham loses but Paige(+0.5) and Wallace(+0.5) win. Hat+2 I guess--that's an interesting escape.
50 2nd 4 Gun Wk RB Y-In 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 bdy Run   Split Duo Paige 2 -0.72
Double gets Graham(-0.5) moved and Grant(-1) a little more but M has LBs for both cutback lanes because Paige(+1, tackling+1) is up. He shoulders off a WR trying to crack him and tackles in the lane with no YAC. RPS+1 for safety down vs run.
M48 3rd 2 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Eagle AA 1 press Pass 4 TE Slant Grant Inc -1.13
Zero coverage, five-man blitz gets Paige(+1, RPS+3, PR+2) into Sorsby immediately. He throws right where Grant(+2, cov+3) is dropping, though Moore(+1) was on the TE and breaking it up if it got there. Ball goes right to Grant but too hot and he drops it. That's why he's not a receiver.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-7. 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun 2x2 H-Orbit 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 bdy Pass n/a Bubble Screen Hausmann 0 -0.70
Same play that got Sainristil in the air and another Nk blitz, so we get to see how it's properly defended. Hausmann(+1) is out there in a flash, Moore(+2) comes up through a TE and runs it OOB at the LOS or a little behind it.
O25 2nd 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 bdy Pass 4 Fly Harris 37(-15) -0.55
Harris(-2, cov-2) bites on a double-move and can't make up the ground, winding up so behind this that the WR can adjust to a badly underthrown pass and catch it inside the Michigan 40. It's underthrown because Goode(+2, PR+2) fought through a double and the center had to yank back his facemask to stop him from sacking. Call is made so it comes back.
O13 2nd 22 Gun 2x2 H-Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Wide 1 fld Run   3O Keep Hausmann 6 0.02
Hausmann(+1) gets out in position and flashes his hands to slow up the QB and make his pitch read hard. Sorsby keeps and he's there to tackle with McGregor(+0.5) showing up to help.
O19 3rd 16 Gun Str 4-2-5 3-1 Stack 1.5 fld Pass 4 Dig Throwaway Sainristil Inc -0.06
Clean pocket (PR-1) vs a 6-man protection. Sainristil(+2, cov+2) with teach tape coverage that I would gush about but Klatt steals my thunder by immediately going to an endzone replay and explaining it. /shakes fist at Klatt's competence. Throw is nowhere near this because it's a throwaway.
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-7. 1 min 2nd Q. Next drive is a kneeldown (after a 3-minute review of a kneeldown). Also next IU possession it's 28-7.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Wk Z-Fly 4-2-5 Nk Split 1.5 press RPO   Split Flow Keep Graham 0 -0.70
Graham(+1) gets an initial double, twists through it, RG falls behind him and puts both hands like he's trying to break Graham's knee. He goes down, stays there a beat like he's making sure everything's where it's supposed to be, and when he stands up the RT is gone after Colson(+1) who was replacing a crash by McGregor (RPS+1). JC gets in the way of a pitch relationship and Graham cleans up. Hope B10 takes a look at that.
O25 2nd 10 Gun 3x1 4-2-5 Nk Eagle 1.5 press Pass 4 Snag Wallace Inc -0.35
This time M plays man with Wallace(+1, cov+1) sticky on the slant. Graham(+1, PR+2) is coming on a twist McGregor(+1) got around and fell but is at Sorsby's feet so this has to go out now. Ball is thrown uncatchably in the direction of the snag.
O25 3rd 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 5-1 Odd 2 press Pass   Sack Harrell -13 -0.27
Three guys in routes and all covered (Cov+2). Meanwhile Colson(+2, PR+3) creates this sack by giving a T a shimmy then drawing him into a TE. Colson is free and Barrett(+1) is able to slip through while these guys are occupied so TE ends up blocking nobody. Sorsby turns and runs towards his own endzone, Harrell(+1) finishes him off at the IU 8.
Drive Notes: Punt. 28-7. 11 min 3rd Q. M in press all three plays here.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 fld Run   Bash Give Johnson 1 -0.59
D-Mo(+1) sees the RG pulling and gets too inside, giving up the give. Rule on Bash is if you give up the give you'd better be fast enough to get the ball to your help. He is, pursuing the back to where Johnson(+2) has met a WR at the 35 and shoved him back to bump into Turner at the 25. Robbed of his momentum the RB cuts back inside where Benny(+0.5) has arrived to help Sainristil(-0.5) who got a little too far inside.
O26 2nd 9 Gun 2x2 H-Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Under 1 press Pass 4 Double Pass Wallace Inc -0.41
Something off the same look they got the TD on earlier--Jackson pumps at it then looks at his X receiver getting pressed by Wallace(+1, cov+1). D-Mo(+1) has gotten so high on the LT that Jackson has to hold up and reset (or else he's been coached not to make it a backwards pass?) but this reset gives Stewart(+1, PR+2) time to beat the RT and now the play is really dead and he has to chuck it at the WR's feet. RPS+1.
O26 3rd 9 Empty 3x2 4-2-5 Nk Split! 1* fld Pass 5 Sack Fumble Barrett -11 -4.37
Barrett(+3) shows blitz in the frontside A gap, shoots through the other A gap while the C is passing off Grant. Jackson is looking for a second at everybody well-covered in man (Cov+1) before he is lit up. Barrett's helmet pops the ball loose and he falls on it for a turn with the buffs. RPS+1.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 35-7. 7 min 3rd Q. Our count is at 1 turnover, and 1 first down. Backups in, things turned off unless I think they're relevant to a starter getting practice.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Str Bunch RB 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 fld Run   Duo Goode 4 -0.11
Sorsby back. Goode(-1) and Graham(-0.5) with the former getting down to Barrett(-0.5). Trouble ends because Q-Jo(+0.5) is nearby and McGregor(+1) flowed from the edge while fighting a TE.
O29 2nd 6 Gun 2RB Twins (Y) 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 off Play-action 4 Flare Walker 7 1.04
A-orbit, McBurrows at Nk and comes, slanting Goode(+1, PR+1) pinballs between the C and LT and speeds up the read. This should get shut down but Walker(-1) is covering grass instead of catching onto the threat that's entering his zone and he doesn't get to the guy until the sticks. 2 first downs, 1 turnover.
O36 1st 10 Pistol FB 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 press Run   Double Arc Keep Barrett -3 -1.49
Harrell(+0.5) is getting read and subtly messes with the play by getting in the TE's way but also playing to spill. Barrett(+3) is already tracking this, runs through Lucas (Hat-1) who doesn't even try to block him, and Sorsby starts running OOB several yards behind the LOS to avoid contact. Barrett hangs on enough to get full credit but Sorsby's still standing so Walker(+0.5) comes up and takes him for a donkey ride through the whistle.
O33 2nd 13 Empty 4x1 Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 1* fld Pass n/a Tunnel Screen Hausmann Inc -0.42
Tempo(21). M is getting instructions from the sideline when they snap. Ball is dropped, Hausmann(+1) was in the area.
O33 3rd 13 Gun Str 4-2-5 Okie 2 2 press Pass 4 Back Shoulder Q.Johnson 17 3.21
Barrett(+2, PR+2) is through the RB and RT and about to destroy Sorsby so he chucks a ball that's over Walker(-1) who's understandably drifting for an interception not a perfect ball, which this is (Hat+3). Missed opportunity passed, Q-Jo(+2, cov+2) slams into the WR literally on the same frame as that he gets the football, sending the guy spinning and falling on his head. Ball clearly doesn't survive contact with the ground, Replay-2 gives it to him anyways. 3 first downs to one turnover.
50 1st 10 Gun Str Stack 5-2-4 5-2 Under 1 off Run   Duo Jenkins 7 0.59
Jenkins(+1) and Graham(+1) twist and the former gets around a downblock attempt while the latter uses the freedom of single blocking to get upfield. D-Mo(+1) has a good edge set that the back crashes into and if Jenkins can tackle here it's over but the guy he beat jumps on his back (Refs-2) which brings him down on the guy trying to kick Moore. Derrick can't find the back, and then Hausmann(-1) gets edged by the guy. Really hope someone in the league office is looking--this could have been a career-ender for the IU guy.
M43 2nd 3 Gun TTE RB 5-2-4 4-3 Split 1 fld Run   Inside Zone Goode 4 -0.90
May be a miscommunication because a double on Goode(+0.5) leaves him, one to double Colson and the other to bonk Harrell(-1) out pretty good. Goode's unblocked and ropes the RB down but he's able to stay up as he's pinwheeled and get a leg kick to get him over the marker in the space Harrell's been removed from. Hat+1 to Old Friend Turner there. What are we on: four 1st downs to one turnover.
M39 1st 10 Empty 4x1 Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 1* fld Pass 4 Sack McGregor -1 -1.02
This might be multiple screens or multiple fake ones to set up a rub with a TE blocking downfield, but the LT isn't going to want to watch McGregor(+2, PR+3) whooping him multiple times. Sorsby bails to avoid a sack and runs into Benny(+0.5) and Grant(+0.5) for a sack. Also Sabb(+1, cov+1) switched on the rub so nothing was open.
M40 2nd 11 Gun Str Flex 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 bdy Pass 4 Snag Walker 8 0.65
Walker(-1) doesn't have a feel for this yet. He has this covered but is in a hurry to get to the RB in the flat. Throw is Buttzoned (Hat+1) so a good drive by Hausmann(+1, cov-push) can't contest it.
M32 3rd 3 Gun Str 4-2-5 5-1 Odd 1 press Pass 4 Throwaway Grant Inc -0.95
Grant(+1) and Barrett(+1, PR+2) are coming through the middle quickly on a blitz and get through, which is good because M has a split coverage that ends up being 1-for-1 on the left side. Sorsby never looks there, since Grant is enough to roll to his right and throw it away near a guy Stewart never lost.
M32 4th 3 Pistol FB 5-2-4 5-2 odd 0 Press Play-action 5 ARO Harrell -27 -6.30
RPS+1 Michigan is pass-rushing so the PA just gets guys in the backfield. Harrell(+3) delays the TE's release then fires into Sorsby who panics and fumbles. Graham(+2) who is wearing a club on his left hand, posterity, picks it up and rumbles to midfield. EO3Q.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 38-7. <1 min 3rd Q. Four 1st downs, 2 turnovers. Tuttle Time.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Str Stack 4-2-5 4-3 Tite 1 off Penalty   Delay of Game n/a (-5) -0.74
Oops.
O20 1st 15 Gun Wk H-Zipper 4-2-5 4-3 Even 2 off Play-action n/a Chuck Sabb INT -4.17
DL only rush after a couple of seconds but Goode(+1) has the C well in the backfield. That doesn't explain why Jackson shorts a chuck to his receiver. Sabb(+2, cov+2) is like "that's a freebie" and runs it back for many. Hat-2 for the throw.
Drive Notes: Interception. 45-7. 11 min 4th Q. There's one more drive with the deep backups in that I'm not charting. Here's Benny's push-pull move.

Why is this UFR different from the other six this year?

Brian said it in the postgame column: the overview of the defensive performance has been pretty much the same all year. There's one flukey touchdown, plus a field goal-ish drive that moves the ball with some annoying thing that works for a minute until Michigan shuts it off. Then Michigan makes their adjustments, the DL gets to wreck face, the score gets out of hand, and then we see how long I feel like .

There was a difference in this game however.

The order of events that made the first 40% of this game feel annoying?

Well that, and Indiana was the first team we face that was actively trying to move events away from the defensive line.

You can do that?

You can do anything at Michigan Zombocom. Anything at all.

MGoBlogocom

...until Michigan decides they've been using you for practice against Ohio State long enough and shuts it off.

So what was the annoying thing this wee....oh right the snags.

The snags.

Let me guess: this was something having to do with playing a lot of zone coverage with a light box, and varying who shows up in each zone.

Yeah, so like the quick outs from ECU, that one skinny post against Bowling Green, the Rutgers hitches, the Nebraska slants, and the Minnesota stretches, Indiana adjusted their offensive attack this week to get some stuff against Michigan's base defense, which is Cover 3 with a light box (UNLV is a system offense and used the opportunity to practice it against elites).

Anyway the snags are part of the same family of quick throws that attack well-known holes in zone coverage. They are like slants except they don't actually make it to the hole defender's zone.

I saw a lot more split coverages this game. Here they caught Cover 6 with two guys high and the curl/flat defender given an immediate threat in the flat. Barrett takes off after the running back just as the snag receiver is turning around and the hole defender is finishing his drop.

image

As before, Michigan tried to take these away by dropping defensive ends into these zones, and the ends had neither the subtle feel for their timing nor the size/athleticism to cover for its lack. This one has Derrick Moore simply going to the wrong zone:

#8 the DE on the top

It's hard to tell with Michigan's switch zones but I'm pretty sure Sainristil is playing the curl/flat and Moore has no business heading after the back, but maybe I'm wrong? If he just plays the hole he's dropping right into this. That should free Colson to help with the guy on the other side of the field.

The one Harrell messed up is a bit more straightforward.

#32 the DE on the bottom

He doesn't have a threat in the flat, but he's a DE who only took zone defense as a minor, and "When to spend a little extra time playing the curl part of your curl-flat" is a 300-level course. The 400-level stuff is what you'd like Colson to do in our first example, which is to recognize when the back goes to the flat that it's going to draw Barrett away, and cut off his drop to slam down on the snag. You can see how hard it is when they had Amorion Walker try it late in the game:

Walker is a true sophomore receiver convert, and understandably awkward at trying to threaten both sides of his curl/flat zone. You can kind of see his thought process in real time as he tries to take away #6 then hop down fast enough not to give up yards to the RB in the flat. There's a lot of "oh gosh I'm supposed to be *here* wait oh no [windmilling arms] I have to be *here* oh crap the first one was right." The senior version of this sees the cornerback reading the quarterback, acting all cool like he's tooootally not going to step in front of the snag that he's clearly favoring, and once that convinces the quarterback to throw to the flat the CB's muscles immediately convert to racing after it.

All this is difficult, made more so when it's apparent the offense spent most of their practices getting the timing and spacing just right to throw this. Snags are effective against zones of all levels, but they're expensive to install for a college offense.

How did they shut it down?

Man coverage. Watch Wallace, the CB on the top.

Slants work against man because the cornerback is in trail coverage, but if you run a snag and stop, you're having the receiver move back towards the cornerback. Offenses still get away with that because their receivers (especially tight ends) often have a size advantage, and because referees often call pass interference on defensive backs who are running into a space a receiver suddenly decides to occupy. But man shuts down snags.

I thought Michigan ran a lot more man in this game than they have this year and sure enough it showed in how they were aligning the cornerbacks before each play.

Opponent Press          Half-Press Off            Plays     
ECU 10% 63% 27% 49
UNLV 5% 34% 61% 41
Bowling Green 4% 29% 67% 48
Rutgers 8% 27% 65% 49
Nebraska 14% 31% 55% 42
Minnesota 10% 38% 52% 50
Indiana 29% 41% 29% 51

It also changed over the course of the game.

Quarter            Press          Half-Press Off            Plays     
1st 26% 35% 39% 23
2nd 11% 67% 22% 9
3rd 47% 41% 12% 17

Cornerback alignment isn't a perfect stand-in for man/zone coverage, but it's a strong hint since their alignment makes playing one or the other easier. I only charted two plays in the 4th quarter, and both were press-man. So was this play, which had three receivers go to the first down marker and turn around, IE nothing that would work against man coverage. They didn't even check out of it when they saw the coverage tip pre-snap.

You wonder if the Hoosiers even practiced more than one man-beater last week. Probably not, because they knew Michigan was going to treat them as a scout team. Whenever Michigan decided to play the team in front of them instead of the team six weeks in front of them, we got the above.

What happened on the touchdown they scored this week?

We covered it on the podcast and in the game column but the gritty is Keon Sabb, the sophomore safety they're trying to get reps so he will see all the weird things that offenses can do to you, forgot to check if there's a #4 receiver going vertical before activating against a screen.

This is a bit more complicated than "Y U NO STAY HIGH." You number receivers outside->in, so #1 is the guy at the bottom of the screen, #2 is the TE under the hash, etc. By the time you get to #4 on one side it's usually the linebacker's responsibility, since you don't usually even get to a #4 unless there are trips to that side and then you add a running back. Here the #4 is Jaylin Lucas, an RB/WR, and he goes vertical. Sabb is the overhang and is supposed to get on top of any route that goes vertical, but there's also an underneath defender--man or zone--who should be preventing a vertical release.

Michigan's playing trap on the other side, and doesn't want to give away the coverage by having Barrett line up over Lucas, so he's got a free release. Shouldn't be a problem if he's the only vertical guy on this play, but Sabb has to see it or Barrett has to let him know. You can see in the clip that Barrett (the LB on the top hash) is trying to let Sabb know. Then you see Sabb has definitely not gotten the message.

Here's a better look:

The next time they tried it (or something like it), IU brought the fourth receiver from the backside on motion and Sainristil was the guy on top of the route.

vlcsnap-2023-10-16-19h13m26s047

Simple enough to fix. Probably just one of those things they hadn't gotten to with Sabb yet. This is why they're getting him reps.

Okay I understand why we leaked yards to a thing that worked for a minute, how we shut it off, and what flukey thing led to this week's one touchdown. I'm ready for scorecard that's 90% stuff that happened on the defensive line.

Actually the chart has some linebackin' in it this time.

Wait, we got information on the linebackers?

Yes!

New information or confirming stuff we knew about them by the end of last year that hasn't changed?

Uh... CHART!

Defensive Line
Player Snaps + - T Notes
Kris Jenkins 22 3 0 +3 Stayed away from him as much as possible.
Mason Graham 27 5 3.5 +1.5 Ditto, but got moved by a some doubles. Scoop!
Kenneth Grant 24 8 1 +7 Could not avoid him.
Cam Goode 14 6.5 1 +5.5 Big impact in [checks notes] pass rush!
Rayshaun Benny 16 3.5 0 +3.5 Push-pull late.
Jaylen Harrell 29 6.5 3.5 +3 Caused the fumble Graham scooped. Coverage issue.
Braiden McGregor 27 7.5 0 +7.5 His normal is good with few mistakes.
Derrick Moore 24 6.5 3 +3.5 Starting to take risks. Learning on the job.
Josaiah Stewart 24 2.5 0 +2.5 Ball was out before he had a chance.
Cameron Brandt 13 0 0 - DNC
TOTAL 263 49 12 +37 IU tried to move the game away from here.
Linebacker
Player Snaps + - T Notes
Junior Colson 41 3 4 -1 What he is is alright. Lacks the instincts to be a star.
Michael Barrett 35 11 1.5 +9.5 I had to remind everyone he was a lethal blitzer.
Ernest Hausmann 23 7 2 +5 Time for a bigger role?
Jaydon Hood 13 0 0 - DNC
TOTAL 117 21 7.5 +13.5 Barrett was awesome. Colson wasn't as bad as memory.
Secondary
Player Snaps + - T Notes
Rod Moore 30 5 2 +3 Still a step or two away from last year.
Makari Paige 28 3.5 0 +3.5 Quietly becoming an impact player. No mistakes!
Keon Sabb 28 4 4 - One bad TD, one easy INT, one underrated switch.
Quinten Johnson 22 2.5 1 +1.5 Okay Brian, the PBU was cool.
Brandyn Hillman 6 0 0 - DNC, kinda bothered he didn't redshirt.
Mike Sainristil 37 6 3.5 +2.5 Is jeopardizing his shield by trying to earn it too much.
Will Johnson 39 4 1 +3 Put bubble blockers into runners twice, not thrown at.
Josh Wallace 28 5.5 1 +4.5 Could have been hit once, got to play some run defense.
Keshaun Harris 19 0 3 -3 That CB spot isn't getting patched this year.
Ja'Den McBurrows 20 0 0 - DNC
Amorion Walker 11 0.5 3 -2.5 Not close, needs a redshirt.
Jyaire Hill 0     - DNP
DJ Waller Jr. 24 0 0 - DNC; let's forget all about the non-TD.
TOTAL 304 31 18.5 +12.5 IU tried to move the game here.
Metrics
Player + - T Notes
Pressure 24 1 23/25 Barrett did damage, ball out too fast for ends.
Coverage 18 11 +7 One big bad and dinks, also 2 INTs and 3 more chances.
Tackling 3 1 +2 Team approach in the rain.
RPS 15 4 +11 New OC got predictible late, had one thing prepared.
Hat Tip 8 3 +5 Sorsby >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jackson.

I did not know Barrett was a steely-eyed missile man.

Yes you did! I said last year that he was Michigan's best linebacker, and before that I was saying he was Michigan's best blitzer. Here's Barrett in Game 7 of last year:

#23 the linebacker threatening to blitz (SPOILER: He blitzes!)

Barrett is Michigan's best linebacker at doing regular linebacker things, so they haven't let him do a lot of this, but it's always been in his repertoire. When it was finally time to Don Brown (IE play press Cover 1 and bring five) the Hoosiers into submission, Barrett was let off the leash and this happened.

No, he wasn't blocked, but he also created that by selling the left side of the line on a blitz in their direction. Carpenter spends a second on Kenneth Grant (who be Kenneth Grant), and that is one second more than he has. The acceleration that made Barrett the Don Brown choice for Viper serves very well for blitzing, because it cuts down on the increments of seconds that the quarterback has to process the pressure, decide what to do about it, and react. Sorsby here wastes his 0.75 seconds waiting for the RB to win a snag route against Colson, Colson does not give it to him because he's in man coverage with that guy, and...wait, say, where'd my football go?

Barrett's acceleration also makes him an ideal late blitzer, and when you combine that with his size it's too much to handle for running backs and most tight ends.

If that's all he was he'd be a fun gadget player, but Barrett has also fully realized his potential as a linebacking-linebacker who linebacks. That is, he reads the play, reacts, and pays it off without wasted motion. Watch him blow up this arc read from start to finish:

#23 the linebacker at the bottom

A couple of retraceable steps to keep himself playside of the tight end, trusts the guys behind him, gets his hands out to blow off the lead blocker (who doesn't even try to block him) and then the acceleration kicks in. This is our Tackle of the Week, even if he technically gave the tackle to Walker, because leaders help build up young guys' confidence too.

The one minus I gave him might not have been fair--he followed a slot into Colson and they converted a short hook behind him. But he might have been in man coverage and IU just caught Michigan with a man cornerback playing high. I also saw Lavonte David do the same thing on Sunday. Then you go back to how Barrett was the one yelling at Sabb to get back and you realize how far this guy has come from a year ago, when I wrote this under "What does it mean for Michigan State and beyond?" because we were still worried he might die if he ate a block:

Michael Barrett: fine. PSU ran power, he slipped around it or didn't matter. He's also getting incrementally more comfortable at linebacker.

PFF graded him a 95.7 pass rusher this week with 3 pressures on six opportunities.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1713994970888114294

They also had him for just 12 more pass rushes in the five previous games. The nature of this season and this defense, and the considerable drop from Barrett to Michigan's other linebackers when it comes to doing linebacker things, means we're probably not going to see him get six blitz opportunities a game. But I'd like to see four. And I'd like to see him getting more snaps than his compadres as we enter the portion of the season where Michigan might be in some football games.

It's never going to happen for Colson is it?

Some guys just don't have the instincts for linebacker, and at this point in his career I am running out of explanations for Colson's play that aren't that. He still does things that make him a plus on the field. Like this pass rush.

#25 standing up on the line between the bottom DE and the NT

He put that right guard in a blender, and then messed up the tight end outside so bad he ends up blocking his own teammate while Barrett sneaks in behind him. He's got that speed and agility that allow Michigan to have him cover a guy like Jaylin Lucas in man. He belongs on the field.

But midway through his third year as a starter he's still not dominating it. Sometimes he's not even executing his assignment. On the play Michigan brought down a safety to give them +1 in the box. Colson should be aware of the call, and that it means Moore will be in the gap to our right. And instead of attacking his own gap, Colson's just hanging out behind the DT.

That's an opportunity to set up 4th and a long field goal that becomes a 1st down, and there is no explanation for it other than Colson wasn't sure what to do. He's better than he was as a true freshman, and better than he was as a true sophomore, and still a great tackler and useful at things that don't involve figuring out what the offense is doing and reacting accordingly.

But there were multiple times in this game when he was somewhere that he could have made a play, and didn't. I didn't give him a negative for booking after the RB here (Hausmann did the same thing on the same look later on). But if Colson had the instincts he'd already be cheating in the RB's direction, and watching the quarterback just long enough to see him pull the ball down. By the time Colson is aware of who has the ball, Sorsby is standing right where Colson used to be.

And we already talked about the hole in Cover 3 that Indiana was attacking early. Again, this wasn't a negative for Colson. He's doing his job as he's been trained to. But he's not the guy who will see Barrett booking after the RB in the flat and realize that means there's a receiver coming to him that he could make a play on.

#25 the MLB

Does Hausmann make that play? Probably not. Does Barrett? Possibly. Possibly likely.

What did you see from Hausmann?

A lot of +1 moments that totaled a good day. I showed you this snag already to talk about Walker's youth but Hausmann almost made a play on it--at least he forced a quick and high throw that resulted in zero YAC.

He got out on the bubble, which takes a lot of speed. He and Wallace also pinched this option play in the redzone to set up a passing down that resulted in the Sainristil & Moore pick.

And in raw speed, Hausmann is the equal of, or at least in range of Colson. Here he is getting out on the RB in the flat when the nickel didn't leave his feet.

#15 the LB on the bottom

Hausmann is coming in as advertised. I didn't get a lot of linebacking moments from him but the arrows are pointing up, and he's a year younger than Colson, so a few errors (like burying himself in the OL on the long Sorsby run when Sainristil left his feet) are more forgivable. When they ran an option at him you could see the weeks practicing against Scott Frost-era Nebraska paying off.

I'm sorry, I was still watching the video above during that last paragraph. Who's that #9 who came down the hash mark.

He used to be #19.

Rod Moore? Did we make it? Are we back?

image

vlcsnap-2023-10-17-17h55m32s769

image

Um, I don't want to say just yet. Every week there are more flashes of the Rod Moore of old, none more so than this one.

#9 the safety midfield

Leaving that much space over a tight end on 3rd & 2 is baiting a free conversion. IU bites on it, Moore steps down, flattens out to be sure the tight end isn't going to run by him,

image

...and stays flat for just a moment too long.

image

Here's the ball arriving and where Moore is.

image

The way I chart gambles is on results: If you take a shot and you fail, you get the full minus, and if you guessed right you get full marks. Setting up high on 3rd & short was a gamble that Moore almost but didn't quite win. He gave up some YAC because he was going for the ball, and that went into the charting, but I'm not mad about it. The fact that he's trying tells you he's playing the game the way we want him to. The fact that he's erring a little bit conservative as he gets his timing back is a good thing. I wouldn't say he's *back* back. But I think it's just a matter of weeks now.

As for the interception, it was nice, but Sainristil got most of the credit for it.

You don't agree with Vance Bedford that Sainristil got away with a wide open slot fade on the first interception?

I don't.

Alejandro Zuniga got an explanation of the coverage from Sainristil this week:

“It was kind of a zone between me, Rod and Junior. Will was out there locked man-to-man. And when three sits, I sit. So he sat and I went to make a play on the ball. I’m not 6-3. My arms aren’t long enough to pick it myself. But I batted it up to him. I could have dove for it, but I saw he was in position.”

"Three" means the tight end, so if anyone's at fault for leaving the fade open it's Moore. He's inside the hash and reacts to the receiver late but that would be hard to cover from his spot.

If you're his coach I think you can look at that and warn the player not to turn his hips on a guy like that until the ball is out of the QB's hands. I mean: What if it's a pump-fake? But again, I grade on results, and on this one I thought that Sainristil was reading the quarterback's intentions and making a play. Jackson is going into his throwing motion almost immediately after getting the ball, and had been doing that rather consistently as he didn't trust his protection. Good thing too because if he pump-faked this and threw the fade he's probably eating one of the linemen beating their blocks. I think Jackson overthrew his tight end, and the way Sainristil reacted late was because he was expecting it to be accurate and was coming to make a play. It was a gamble, but when you gamble and win you keep the points.

Now, does Sainristil need to chill out on the gambles and focus on executing his assignment a little more? Yes.

I get trying to make a play, but if Jackson gets that throw off Sainristil has four teammates around to deal with two blockers and a runner. Two of them are Rod Moore and Will Johnson. Given Jackson's accuracy issues and what we've seen from Colson in the past, we could have gotten a +3 takedown in the backfield.

Sainristil played another flare to the (offense's) right really soft, and I thought it was because he was trying to double-think it and get a big interception on a throw behind him that no Indiana quarterback is attempting. He also poked his nose in a little too far when they had a screen corralled in the backfield.

Put them all together and it feels a little like Sainristil is trying to come up with Shield-worthy plays on par with some of the things he's done in the past.

Now THAT is underrating Sainristil of the week.

No this is the underrating Sainristil of the week:

image

That's the Tush Push on 3rd & 1 one play before Indiana's touchdown. I gave out +.5s to several guys who got under their blockers but Sainristil came in late, found the football, and made sure Sorsby could never extend it past his chest, which is still short of the line to gain by a half a foot.

The frame above is post-push, the frame when it went the absolute furthest before Sainristil starts moving the QB's ball arm backwards. It's close, and spot reviews are particularly worthless, but it was frustrating they gave it to them because it was an awesome stop. IU scored a TD on the ensuing 1st down; Michigan deserved a shot at a 4th and inches stop first.

Also lest we forget, Sainristil is very good at doing the thing he does, which is cover dudes. This one pissed me off because I saw this live with nobody around me and was instantly excited to share it with all of you until Joel Klatt jumped in front of me.

This has been your formerly weekly Joel Klatt is Too Good at His Job of the Week. See you again for Penn State, Joel.

Anything else from the secondary?

Quinten Johnson did indeed knock this out.

Joel Klatt already told us about this.

Argh! Lemme see...did Klatt tell you about Sabb's really good coverage moment?

The interception?

No, that was just a 500 ball. It was this play, which IU had set up with this formation they kept running screens out of until this point. Watch the inside receiver lined up on the hash behind his tight end.

It's so subtle even Klatt didn't pick up on it (or did and it was too late to care). Sorsby gave a pre-planned pump fake in the direction of the screens--if he'd been actually looking he would have thrown the far one because it's open--then turned and faced skinny post to #6 that they're trying to rub. Sabb was engaged with the tight end, and came off of him to get underneath the post, then got his head around to make a play on the ball when it should have been released. It never was released because McGregor got loose. But it's pretty neat when your green sophomore is executing switch coverages.

This is where I'm at with Sabb, but I would like to go a game without explaining how he gave up a really bad touchdown before getting into the things he's doing well and spectacularly well. In this way he's kind of the Myles Hinton of the defense.

As for his interception...

...that was mostly on a terrible ball by the quarterback, but +2 credit* for finding the ball and making a play on it, which Sabb did because he set up in the parking lot.

Yeah, what was with the safeties setting up as far back as DJ Durkin should be from a college football program?

That was interesting. I only caught it four times, all in response to Indiana's empty formations. The first time they did it was near the end of the 1st quarter when Sainristil got held and Will Johnson shoved a receiver into the ballcarrier's path--before the touchdown. I'm guessing this was a response to the stuff they were doing this year under Walt Bell, where they were faking screens then throwing deep if you let the blocker go by.

And I guess it worked? IU still had plenty of ol' Walt's stuff prepared--the guy'd only been gone a week--and Michigan's DBs were up to the task. The best was this from Wallace, even though it wasn't a screen, because the defense was still the same: beat a receiver and arrive at the ball under control. Can't do it better than this:

And then Will Johnson slammed a receiver into the ballcarrier twice. The camera caught more of the second one so I clipped it.

#2 on the bottom

That was about all Johnson got to do on the day. They did not throw at him. The only guy who struggled with this stuff was Keshaun Harris, who got beat up by McCulley on the edge one time and then gave up the long throw that got called back because Carpenter had Grant's facemask. McCulley is a Athlete but you don't want to be seeing this from the cornerback at #3 on the depth chart by Game 7.

Harris is a walk-on, but a walk-on recruited off the track team for his speed.

So yeah, cornerback is going into the heavy part of the schedule pretty close to the preseason worst case scenario. Michigan can roll with Johnson and Wallace, and Sainristil is probably their top option if they lose either of those guys long-term. But things are getting a bit Never Forgettish behind them. McBurrows is playing nickel in deep backup hour; he didn't chart but was on the field a lot. Walker and Hill aren't going to be playable after missing too much of what should have been crucial development time to injury. DJ Waller burned his redshirt but that wasn't supposed to happen and it tells. The 2022 guys haven't played since BGSU, and didn't really show anything there. It is what it is.

* [By the way if you think staying on a ball that's shorted is easy, DJ Waller proved otherwise on the late called back touchdown. I did not clip it because it was in deep garbage time, and my results-based charting was going to have a big argument with my "That looked awful; don't do that again" fan brain. Let's all pretend it didn't happen.]

It is weird is what it is.

Not having cornerback depth?

Talking about the cornerbacks in a Michigan game before we get to the defensive line.

I think was was by design. Here's a peek at my spreadsheet, with search functions showing the scores for Jenkins and RPS in the right two columns.

image

Indiana decided Jenkins and Graham weren't going to beat them and did everything they could to stay out of the middle. Passes were mostly short stuff, screens, RPOs, or play-action with at most three receivers in the pattern. Walt Bell is gone, but you can't erase him one week.

Well, did they? Let Graham beat them?

Well, lol.

Fumble recoveries are usually just a +1 in our grading but Graham got an especial +2 for doing it one-handed and rumbling like a maniac. He ate doubles all day, and when he finally broke through one of them with a chance to be relevant the guard he beat put his hands together and came down with all his weight on Graham's knee. There was a conversation at the ref who let it go afterwards, and then Michigan called a blitz with man coverage behind it--finally--and this happened.

Graham was pushed back twice by those doubles, but the field was wet and that tends to happen.

The guy who surprised in this show was Cam Goode, who got more opportunities to pass rush than the other guys and was paying them off. There was the one where the foul he drew saved Harris.

#99 DT on the top

Goode also supplied the pressure on the Sabb INT. And put a move on the LT on 3rd and 3 that almost saved Colson. He got moved by a double one time.

On to Grant, he was the one who shed an OL and forced Sorsby to go on a vision question in the middle of a QB draw. Here's why he's not a receiver.

But that's a pretty good job for a DT of knowing where to drop to. He was also doubled once--everybody got one is seems--and stood up to a handful more.

Rayshaun Benny played a bunch but was a victim of the "Let's avoid Jenkins at all costs" gameplan that affected Jenkins's backup all the same. When Benny got some reps in Graham's spot he got to do this late.

And the ends?

Derrick Moore had a coverage bust, but was impact player in run defense this week. This is a slant so he's got to get across the left tackle quickly and without losing control or falling down. Then those long arms reach out and it's over.

#8 the DE on the bottom next to Sainristil

He also got a live lesson in defending Bash that ended up just showing off his athleticism. Bash is kind of a reverse zone read, where the quarterback is the runner getting the primary blocking and the back is meant to take the ball and jet out the backside. You may remember it from a couple of plays in the mid-teens when Saquon Barkley hit us with it, and when a guy Scott Frost recruited off the UCF track team scored with it one time. It messes with defensive ends because they're used to crashing as soon as they see the ball in the RB's hands. He does take one false step, but his speed is enough to recover and force the ball out to his help, IE Johnson.

Next up, I'm surprised and not surprised that Bill Connelly named Jaylen Harrell Michigan's defensive MVP, based on his pass-rushing after this game. That's either a deep cut or a shallow one, because Harrell is picking up stats by mostly being in the right place. Here's a sack.

He got bonked a couple of times when he met a lineman, and blew a coverage, but am I down on him? Hell no. Not after he did this:

When you play responsibly, you get rewarded. What Harrell did here was teach tape: annoyed the tight end's path, shot up to close the space between himself and the quarterback, then got an arm to cause the fumble. The entire time he remained in control, allowing Sorsby to make the mistake. Graham got to wear the buffs afterwards, but this was a Harrell play.

McGregor quietly had another good day with no mistakes. Here he is whipping the RT, who was probably expecting an inside move after Braiden was setting him up earlier.

He was Michigan's most effective edge rusher in this game, for all the good it did, but Indiana's tackles aren't good so I don't know how much his score is going to translate. He is very good at using his length to fend off blockers and get where he needs to go. There's a reason he and Derrick Moore have a timeshare, and despite Moore's play steadily improving I don't think he's going to steal snaps from McGregor.

Substitution Notes? None of the starting DL had 30 snaps.

Joel Klatt already said that.

Well I'm saying it too. Graham-Grant-Jenkins were about even with Goode sprinkled in and Benny's snaps mostly coming late. DE was the same four and an even split there as well. Barrett had almost as many snaps as Colson (35 to 41) this time, with a slightly reduced role for Hausmann. Safety was an even rotation of Moore/Paige/Sabb, with Q-Jo getting a lot of late run for Paige and Hillman/Kolesar on late. Wallace gave up snaps to Harris and Sainristil was the first starter off so McBurrows could get some extended time at nickel, though he didn't make the charting for all of that. Amorion Walker came in a few times once Michigan got up 28-7, with DJ Waller opposite him.

Heroes?

Michael Barrett.

Maybe Not So Heroic?

Corners after the top two. Among the starters a lot of guys had low-for-themselves outputs that still ended up in the positive.

What does it mean for Michigan State and Beyond?

The one thing that worked stopped working when we said so. Snags this time, which are easy enough to shut off with a little Don Brown.

The one touchdown was a mistake on a trick play and they should maybe not do that again. Righto!

The defensive line is good ....so they were mostly avoided. A few successes on doubles the few times IU did run inside weren't that concerning since it was a weather game.

Michael Barrett is their best linebacker, and oh yeah he blitzes. Thank you 2022 charting. You are still correct it appears.

Junior Colson probably isn't gonna just "get it" one day. The NFL has taken worse, and as a gadget man he could be really fun; as a regular middle linebacker he doesn't have the instincts to convert that talent into Lavonte David. We can be fine with this.

The cornerback depth is sketch. Help from below the Harris line isn't coming. First extensive Walker reps showed the injury really set back his development for this year; I hope he redshirts. Hill's development is getting set back now. Waller is a nice surprise but that's a long ways from playable. McBurrows is a nickel.

Keon Sabb:The Defense::Myles Hinton:The Offense. I would like my third safety to not have a -3 per game because I'm noticing some subtle +1s I want to get excited about.

Rod Moore probably needs a week or two but he'll be back. I have never been more encouraged by a 10-yard conversion of a 3rd & 2 in my life.

Opponents 1-7 were live practices for Ohio State. As befits.

We already knew all of this. Sorry.

When does the season start? Which season?

The one that goes dananananananananananana. Oh. It's gonna start in a minute, you just gotta wait.

Okay.

Seth? Start it already! It's gonna start in a minute; you just gotta wait. It's gonna start.....now.

Your Moment of Zen:

Hold on your honor I'll get ice for your hand.

Comments

MgofanNC

October 18th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^

Looks to me like on the trick play TD that if Colson just finishes his run at the passer he at the very least interrupts the throwing motion and maybe even gets the TFL but he stops... why? Is there something I'm not understanding about his responsibilities here that would cause him to not just run up and tackle the guy with the ball?

His role on this play is something I've not seen/heard discussed which makes me think I'm missing something. 

Blue eNVy

October 18th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^

That's a solid observation. I hadn't noticed Colson until you mentioned him. It seems like he breaks down expecting McCully to use his blockers and take off up the sideline, but from the sideline view it seems like if Colson didn't breakdown he definitely would've influenced the throw.

BuckeyeChuck

October 18th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^

How about freaking PLAY SOMEBODY !!!

 

Seriously though, it kind of reminds me of the 2015 Buckeyes. A lot of talent on that team, a large group of key returning players from the championship. A loaded roster; probably the best and deepest of the Meyer era. They had basically a 10-game exhibition schedule before finishing with a 2-game regular season: MSU & Michigan. They dominated several teams, sleep-walked through a few others, and entered the MSU game 10-0 without a quality win.

In OSU’s case, the Buckeyes played a sludgefart of a game in the rain against Sparty and lost on a time-expiring field goal in a game they never trailed. They came out motivated and focused the following week, but that was too late to salvage the ruined season because a 1-1 record in their 2-game regular season kept an 11-1 defending champ out of the B1G CG and the CFP.

BuckeyeChuck

October 18th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^

Furthermore, although I thought that The Thing That Shall Not Be Named was hilarious at the time, when it was all said & done that crazy play ended up disastrous for OSU. Had Michigan been able to execute a freakin’ punt, MSU would have had 2 losses, OSU would have won the East outright and gone to the CCG, beaten Iowa (because like the West would ever win the CCG, amirite?), and an 11-1 conference champs WOULD have gone to the CFP with a good chance to do a lot of damage in the playoffs and possibly come away as two-time defending champs.

The Thing That Shall Not Be Named screwed both of us.

dragonchild

October 18th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^

The officiating for that MSU game was atrocious, but while the O'Neill crew royally screwed Michigan that day, the one thing you can't accuse them of is having an agenda.

. . . because they royally screwed MSU with equally egregious officiating the very next week.  They screwed teams, but they did so indiscriminately.  For some damn reason.  They were just a friggin' cancer on the game.

RealElonMusk

October 18th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^

Buckeye Chuck- you bring up a good point-    Pundits like to rank OSU in the top 3.  If those rankings were accurate then OSU has vastly underperformed in regard to national championships since 2015 with 0.

IMHO reality is that OSU has loaded up on 5 stars on offense primarily WR and neglected defense-   the 5 stars that OSU does have on defense don't seem to develop.  

I'm surprised and happy that Day hasn't been able to figure this out.  My friends who are close to the OSU team tell me that Day spends all of his time with the offense and QB and pays no attention to the defense.

BuckeyeChuck

October 18th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^

Day spends all of his time with the offense and QB and pays no attention to the defense.

How much attention should an offensive-minded HC give the defense? He should hire a DC and let the DC go to work. RR should've stayed out of Michigan's defense. A defensive-minded HC should hire an OC he's comfortable handing the keys to the offense, like Saban has.

Carpetbagger

October 18th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^

I do wonder if the 9 game expedition schedule won't end up hurting us. Experienced teams can be hard to keep focused. They have been more focused than that Buckeye team, but if it can happen to Urban Meyer it can happen to Harbaugh. Makes you wonder if The Don is having exactly that problem (pure speculation from an armchair quarterback).

It should help we didn't win it all last year. 

MNWolverine2

October 18th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^

I'm pretty nervous about this as well.  Michigan seems to still have the same weak spots at LB that they had last year, with a much leakier secondary.  I'm pretty worried that PSU on the road is going to be a shock to the system for our offense (PSU defense is insane) and our defense gives up 2-3 busts instead of just 1, and we lose a 21-17 game.

Koop

October 18th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^

Agreed. There have been so few negative events for the defense this year that we as fans hyper-analyze each one:

  • "Oh no, the DE's struggle with drop coverage, that must mean OSU and PSU will torch us!";
  • "Oh no, our All-America nickel sometimes overplays to try to make a great play, that must mean our nickel coverage is weak!"
  • "Oh no, the third safety sometimes makes mistakes in coverage, that must mean that OSU will torch us!" [No, I can't attribute even mock-panic about that to PSU; first Frames has to show they can throw more than 10 yards downfield.]
  • "Oh no, a team with no appreciable interior run game ran wide against Michigan's base defense for one possession; that must mean ...." [Okay, once again, I'm not even sure what that might mean in this mock-panic context, unless PSU and OSU's rushing offenses show us something in the next few weeks].

Look: as college football teams in 2023 go, OSU and PSU are good. Actually, very good, if we appropriately grade on a curve. And when Michigan faces them, they're going to get theirs at points. Marvin Harrison Jr. is not going for 0 receptions, 0 yards against Michigan. Drew Allar is not throwing for 0 completions. If Michigan has to go man coverage against OSU to shore up against curls and hitches, then we as fans need to accept that McCord might complete some slants. That's how the game works. As they say, those guys are on scholarship, too.

Also: Michigan is the most complete team--offense, defense, special teams--in college football in 2023 to date. Period. No one in college football is perfect. Everyone has stuff to improve, Michigan included. But the trend lines are positive, and--so long as every single player on the team continues to commit to getting 1% better, every day--I like Michigan's chances. Go Blue.

Carpetbagger

October 18th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^

Oh, I don't worry about tipping our hand at all. Our defense has run every single version of every single permutation of defense during the year. Good luck figuring out what's going to be our base for OSU if it isn't "the extremely obvious" that OSU has been practicing (live) to counter as well.

It isn't an accident OSU is trying so hard to run the ball. They don't have to be great at it, they just have to keep us honest.

Same on the offense side. Good luck trying to game plan against this O. What's our bread and butter? Depends on the week.

 

dragonchild

October 18th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^

This team won't get soft.  Too many leaders, starting with Harbaugh & Herbert, but including JJ and Sainristil.  I'm not worried about focus, or they'd be playing sludgefart games by now.  Instead the margins of victory are increasing.

The problem with an all-cupcake schedule is you don't learn about yourself.  The DEs are going up against decent OTs in practice and turnstiles in games; they haven't had reps against elite pass protectors.  Offensive plays are working in ways that probably won't against elite defenses.  The team has weaknesses that aren't getting exposed, until they get exposed.

In other words, I'm worried about a Don Brown scenario, where Michigan goes into The Game with a sparkling stat sheet and a weakness that gets brutally exploited.  Yeah they're repping Cover-3 with an eye at OSU, but I don't know if dropping D-linemen is a good idea if it's not even working against Indiana.  OSU's receivers are considerably better.

RealElonMusk

October 18th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^

It wasn't lack of focus-   it was Michigan State having a pretty decent team and Dantonio knowing how to play in the rain.  

As soon as M State had the ball with 4:07 it was clear that Dantonio would play to make a field goal & leave no time on the clock.   That drive would have been the right time to play extremely aggressively on defense but instead Michigan State converted 2 critical 3rd down plays (3 and 1 with a QB sneak, 3rd and 2 with a run).  

Michigan State completed only 2 or 3 passes in the 2nd half.   

If OSU had been able to stop the run OSU wins in 2015

Unfortunately, OSU's ability to stop the run in that game was about as good as Meyer's 2022 OSU Michigan prediction --  "OSU will stop the run"   

BuckeyeChuck

October 18th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^

The 2015 offense did have a few quirks to work through early on in the season (not too dissimilar from what you're seeing with Edwards and even Corum looking "rusty" per Brian), such as Meyer feeling obligated to start Cardale when JT was his preferred option.

As for 2019, as the season progressed I kept trying to think of another Buckeye team that was both as explosive on offense and dominating on defense; and I still have not been able to think of one, which means that the 2019 team being so good on both sides of the ball was the best Buckeye team I've ever seen.

1VaBlue1

October 18th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^

I don't think it had anything to do with an extended exhibition season.  My take is that with the weather Urbane didn't want any high variance risks giving an easy turnover based TD to MSU, so he Iowa'd that game.  And got beat by a perfect Iowa game from MSU - who was pretty good at Iowa-ing that year.  The OSU game plan played directly into the only way MSU was going to stay in that game, and it's only because of the rain and wind that Urbane abandoned his usual offense in favor of something so run heavy that it was too conservative.

FlexUM

October 18th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^

I actually went to that game with my mom (osu grad). It was warm and nice to start the game but a huge front came through and literally went from like 60 and cloudy to 40 and sideways rain. Before the game started it was announced msu starting qb was out and I told my mom "oh this games over osu rolls by like 28 points". 

That osu team was insane. That roster...it was just one of the best I've seen.

Interestingly, I was at that game I think it was 98 or so when osu was a huge favorate and msu won at ohio stae. 

LeCheezus

October 18th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^

A -4 for a blown assignment on a well-executed trick play seems harsh.  Many times those plays are open and still don't go for TD's because the guy throwing the ball wasn't a college QB for a year that throws a dime - the WR puts up a duck that gets caught but looks more like the Mullings to Schoomaker play last year.  Sometimes you get got, I guess.

cappy412

October 18th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^

MGoUser Dunder was tracking the season preview predictions at the beginning of the season but stopped. I missed them so I decided to pick it up.

 

  • Derrick Moore emerges into the clear starting strongside tackle and is on NFL lips entering 2024.
    • As Seth noted him and McGregor still have a “timeshare.” He's been good but not "on NFL lips" good.
  • Mason Graham has five sacks and approaches a 90 PFF grade.
    • Feels spot on. I don’t know exactly what Graham’s PFF grade is but it’s gotta be up there. He has 1.5 sacks so far so probably won’t get there but this feels spiritually correct.
  • Ditto Kris Jenkins.
    • Ditto my response for Graham (Jenkins has 1 sack).
  • Colson improves noticeably but not improbably; he does not fully harness his physical ability but covering grass is much less prominent; he enters the draft early and goes on day 2.
    • This UFR is making this one seem a pretty optimistic. He has improved a bit for sure, but I'd be surprised if he goes on day 2 of the draft.
  • Josh Wallace holds CB2 all year, though there's a significant amount of rotation.
    • Pretty accurate. Wallace sure seems like he’ll hold CB2 all year but guys like Harris are still getting plenty of run. Unfortunately, Wallace separating himself is mostly because those rotation pieces haven’t yielded much optimism.
  • Rod Moore has three crucial interceptions and is an All American. OSU stands by their decision to not recruit him because he was a three star.
    • Can the interception from this game be called crucial? Probably not given that it’s Indiana, but it was nice to stop them from scoring. As for him being an All American, it looks like he’s starting to get there but probably won’t actually earn the honor because of his early season injury.
  • Jyaire Hill flashes enough in ~150 snaps to suggest he's the next one.
    • He didn’t play in this game so no more data here.
  • Josiah Stewart is a near-clone of Uche, but an increment below him.
    • Stewart wasn't mentioned in this piece outside of the chart. I wouldn't call him a "near-clone" at this point.
  • Michigan finishes 4th in SP+.
    • They’re currently sitting at 3rd. So far so good.

dragonchild

October 18th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

I'm a couple weeks past the point where I want Junior Colson to be handed pre-snap assignments and just let the rest of the defense work around him.  For example, just have him mindlessly blitz the ball or man cover.  Don't have him do the same thing over and over, his assignment should change from down to down, but eliminate all read-and-react from his game.  If he's wrong, at least he's making mistakes at 100mph instead of standing around.

gustave ferbert

October 18th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^

I'm an avid fan of the UFR, I don't recall an instance where there were double digit pluses for all three position groups. 

 

Anyone recall a different time when it happened? 

DelhiWolverine

October 18th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^

Graham(+1) gets an initial double, twists through it, RG falls behind him and puts both hands like he's trying to break Graham's knee.

As soon as I read this, I got a hit of that super angry rage that usually comes up if I see a kid on the playground take a swing at one of my own kids, but directed toward that COWARD ASS DIRTY INDIANA RIGHT GUARD

Anyone else?