The mood is not good. The latest update from MVictors sees the Mood just about bottom out:

The only thing keeping the Index off the 40 floor is the notion that it could actually get worse against Rutgers.

Oh look, it's me:

Going Even Lower. Many on Twitter chimed in with ratings below 40. Under 40 represents the Trough of Disillusionment. You are beyond rage, despair, feeling…you’ve completely checked out. That’s fine, but in this state you won’t care about a silly Mood rating anyway.

I feel nossing.

[After THE JUMP: behind Rutgers: not as bad as it sounds]

Sensible. The entire 2021 NCAA tournament will take place in Indianapolis and environs.

The committee emphasized the importance of conducting the championship in a manageable geographic area that limits travel and provides a safe and controlled environment with competition and practice venues, medical resources and lodging for teams and officials all within proximity of one another.

“We have learned so much from monitoring other successful sporting events in the last several months, and it became clear it’s not feasible to manage this complex championship in so many different states with the challenges presented by the pandemic,” said Dan Gavitt, NCAA Senior Vice President of Basketball. “However, we are developing a solid plan to present a safe, responsible and fantastic March Madness tournament unlike any other we’ve experienced.”

Since fans aren't going to be on premises it doesn't really matter if the tournament is spread out like it usually is.

Expectations set. Brendan Quinn's annual preseason poll of Big Ten basketball media types is out. Michigan is in a weird spot:

5. Rutgers 249

6. Michigan 241

7. Ohio State 229

Behind Rutgers. Also projected to make the tournament. Takes some getting used to. Other items:

• Franz Wagner edges onto the All Big Ten team in a 3-way tie for fourth with Kofi Cockburn and Nate Reuvers
• Hunter Dickinson grabs four votes for freshman of the year; Zeb Jackson(!) grabs one.
• Micah Potter gets just one All Big Ten vote, which I find insane.

I am usually the biggest Iowa optimist outside of Fran McCaffrey's immediate family but I am selling Hawkeye stock this year. It's one thing to project a beautiful offense and consistently grim defense to surprise and make the tournament; it's entirely another to project them in the top 5.

I don't think their defense has much upside since Garza is a big part of the problem there, and pulling the 2013 Michigan (top-ranked offense outpacing meh D) would mean improving their defensive efficiency by ~60 slots. They could hit 2014 Michigan (#3 O, #89 D), maybe. That team won the Big Ten en route to finishing #12 in efficiency margin.

Zeb getting talked up. Nobody really knows what to expect from Zeb Jackson after he spent his senior year of high school operating as the 8th or 9th guy on one of the most stacked high school teams of all time, but early returns seem good: 

Zeb Jackson, a Michigan freshman who turned 19 on Saturday, makes 22-year-old senior Isaiah Livers joke about missing his “young legs.”

Unless something unexpected happened since last season, Livers is still an impressive athlete capable of highlight-worthy dunks.

Jackson, though, can get out of bed, head to the gym in pants and outdoor shoes, and thrown down a windmill.

“It’s that’s freak athleticism,” Livers said.

Also Livers:

“It’s that freak athleticism,” Livers said. “A guy gets past him, we don’t have to help as much as you do (with) a point guard who can’t jump as much. He’s going to go up and grab that ball off the rim, he’s going to block their shot. He’s very quick. He’s very twitchy, shifty. I don’t really know how to describe it. I closed out to him a couple times, and I’m not going to lie, he got me. He’ll go one way, go back the other way. I’m like, ‘Damn, this dude is quick!’

His high school coach from back in Ohio:

“Zeb, he’s got true point guard instincts,” Rob Conover, who coached Jackson through his junior season of high school at Maumee Valley Country Day in Maumee, Ohio, said. “He sees the game really well, probably understands the game better than any other kid I’ve ever coached.”

Jackson may be a point guard by trade; in year one I'd expect he plays off the ball more, especially since he's the only guy on the roster who's shaped like a traditional two-guard.

Brendan Roose goes hard. Uh yeah wow man:

On March 7, the Michigan hockey players left a full Yost Ice Arena and stepped into a world ready to catch fire. COVID-19 was in the back of everybody’s minds, but the team had no idea about the 251 days of chaos that would come before their next hockey game. Nobody did.

On the 252nd day, the world is still burning. Practically every inch of the continental United States is a COVID hotspot.

But for a few hours, hockey.

Looking forward to further hockey coverage from Roose, which will chronicle Michigan forging on despite Bill Muckalt becoming a zombie.

FWIW. I'm not sure how revealing this is but here are some numbers:

Against throws to players who lined up pre-snap as the outermost receiver, Michigan is 120th in the country in EPA per play. They are giving up 18 yards per catch on these throws. … [on] plays where the targeted receiver ends up in single coverage, Michigan is 115th in EPA per play.  …

Finally, they have not been able to get after quarterbacks via the blitz at all in 2020. In Don Brown's first four seasons with the team, Michigan never allowed more than -0.229 EPA per play when blitzing — that’s really good! In 2016, they were at -0.532 — incredible! This year? 0.097. It's their first time allowing positive efficiency when blitzing.

They are having so much trouble getting to the quarterback when they blitz this season. Going into the season, their lowest pressure rate when blitzing was 45% in 2018. They are down to 32% this season.

Seth Galina asserts that this is the blitz not getting home when Michigan has largely abandoned blitzing in the hopes of playing zone well enough to get a stop. Also—except for that last one—these numbers do not distinguish between the blitz not getting home and the blitz getting there just in time to see the QB throw it to his first read. And I wonder if charting is being affected by the QB getting throws out immediately. There's a natural tendency to not file a completion as a pressure even when someone is getting to the QB very quickly

Etc.: BYCTOM on undefeated Northwestern. Max Bultman on hockey's fast start at The Athletic. Ethan Sears on the 2017 recruiting class and how it's led football down this path. ECAC is down to four teams. Very long Kent Johnson scout. Long Luke Hughes scout.