Ticket Watch Ain't Scarce Yet
This is a new feature this year where I track the secondary ticket market, because I'm a cheap bastard who doesn't buy season tickets. This Big House vagabodry dates back to childhood, when my dad had a lot of friends with tickets, and a son who always answered "yes" when one of them called to offer. I of course got tickets as a student, but since graduating, I've had my ear to the ground. This does not make me an expert, but I've enlisted some readers plus our ticket partners TiqIQ and a Futures analyst to talk tickets and give some away.
If you would like to give away some tix to an MGoBlogger, leave a comment here.
YESTERDAY'S TRADING
We are now past the pre-season demand spike, which this year saw amazing $100/ticket average climb from last year. You knew last year was bad because you were getting phone calls from my dad's friends too. But the numbers revealed in Brandon's Lasting Lessons were staggering: an average of 9,000 tickets per game were given away by the athletic department alone. Typically the ticket market for any sports team is going to be high with expectations at the beginning of the season—and last year most expected Michigan to win 8 or 9 games—but 13,000 were given away for the Horror II. That was because of the opponent, yes, but also a screaming bear of a market which would only get worse after the pasting at Notre Dame.
Michigan did right itself but the effects linger, and that showed in the Oregon State ticket market. Even with a Pac12 opponent, the first Harbaugh home game, and the home opener, there were still guys standing outside Crisler offering free tickets and getting no takers. A reader reported he got two tickets at $5 each from the Stadium & Main melee. You could get tickets the morning of the game for $20-$30 on the ticket resale sites, though a lot of people were still holding out for face. This is typical for a 1990s mid-September MAC opponent, not a home opener.
Losing to Utah was the big thing—losses always bring down ticket prices, and the first one does the most. I think we also overestimated how quickly the hole of 2014 could be filled in. While the tailgaters (and the M-14 traffic congestion after 8 a.m.) were back en force the sense of scarcity is taking its time to climb back. That's unfortunate for all those who got season tickets, but good news for secondary buyers.
By the way the student section did get pretty full even if it looked like the top was empty. Back in the day student tickets were easy enough to resell to people who actually plan on sitting in their seats. Students pack in with their friends lower down, and that's why you'll see empty spots at the top. You could tell when Grapentine welcomed the freshmen to the stadium and freshmen all over the student section went woo while all the upperclassmen to have lived through Brandon had their arms crossed and eyes rolled.
THE NEXT GAME
If you were looking for an opportunity to bring the whole family on a budget UNLV should be the cheapest ticket all year. If the opener on a beautiful day against a P5 opponent on Harbaugh's first home game still didn't fill, a high school team from Nevada that dresses like the Buckeyes and uses a mascot from losing side of the Civil Rights Movement is going to make a lot of fans go meh. And then there's this (via Weathertap):
When they say 50% that means a front is probably coming but they don't know when it will clear out by. Even if it turns out sunny, storms Friday night or Saturday morning will mean a lot of stay-homes. You can get four in Row 11 on the 50 yard line for $50 each right now. You can probably get two people in for free on Game Day, and a decent seat for $20/ticket on your walk to the stadium.
CURRENT RATES
The seller's season became a buyer's season with Michigan's first loss, then more so as scarcity effect was undermined badly by the lackluster Oregon State fill.
Again, my process is I spend a week of tracking prices on TiqIQ (which collates all the smaller markets), Stubhub, and Craigslist (Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit), then post a price per ticket for two or more seats together:
| Game | In Aug | Now | Dips | Buy? | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | $45 | $30 | free | at game | See above. Buy only if you desire good seats/have a big group. |
| BYU | $72 | $70 | $65 | at game | Already below face ($80-$100) now. This stock's a dog |
| @Maryland | $85 | $85 | $60 | Now | M fans still driving up the market. |
| Northwestern | $80 | $66 | $60 | wait. | If M beats BYU start shopping. |
| MSU | $194 | $225 | $118 | Now | State fans will drive up. |
| @Minnesota | $78 | $66 | - | wait. | No idea how the Minnesota secondary market works now—last time I went was Metrodome, which had unlimited seats. Help? |
| Rutgers | $43 | $45 | $12 | Now | People are dumping them in protest. Jump. |
| @Indiana | $63 | $56 | - | wait. | Hoosiers will dump tix when they start losing. |
| @Penn State | $145 | $108 | $80 | Now | I was wrong before. Get 'em now while PSU sucks. |
| Ohio State | $217 | $144 | $130 | Now | I believe in Harbaugh. |
The games close at hand took a big dip, and MSU hit a low—remember the face on those start at $95 and that's not counting PSLs. By mid-October State fans will notice. If you see tickets near $120 and you really want to go to that game, jump.
I was so so so wrong about Penn State so please don't get mad at me if I'm wrong about the rest. I thought PSU had such an easy schedule they'd be romping to 9 wins by the time Michigan came to town, and their unreasonable fans would take that to mean they're good. Then Temple happened. I say buy now because they'll eventually have something to get excited about and prices were really high during a bad season when we went there last time.
CHEAP TIP
I never buy from the ticket hucksters around town. They're way too good at their jobs and love to lie about bad seats. If you find yourself having to use the scalpers, don't ever buy the first tickets they show you, and catch them when you're walking FROM not TO the stadium—you'll have a better gauge of the market by that point. Whenever possible try to find another fan going to the game since they're motivated to get rid of those tickets and get in the building.
BEST DEAL RIGHT NOW (that I can find on the sponsor's site because let's support people who support us okay?)
The MSU ticket market is volatile right now. Leave a window open here (1 ticket for MSU) and you'll come across singles around $150 each here and there, and sometimes in the same section.
September 15th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
I'm not so sure. Granted I'm a sample size of one but for 35 years I got every Saturday morning and got in my car and drove 3 hours from Cleveland to AA to watch home games. Arriving NO later than 9:00am for noon games and around noon for 3:30 games we didnt leave until well into the night usually. It was a full day of football and yeah, sometimes I'd skip one if the opponent or the weather was REAL bad but that was extremely rare occurance. This is just what I did on Saturday's in the fall from 1988 through 2013.
Then for the first time last year I did other things on Saturday's besides driving & tailgating all day. I still watched all the games but I did so in my basement where I was always warm, dry and within arm lengths of additional food & beer whenever I wanted it. I could pause the game, go to the bathroom and if things got real shitty (and sometimes they unfortunately did last year) I could turn it off and go do something else or watch some other game. And it cost me nothing.
So this year I'm mulling going to a game or two and I went on Stubhub to look at pricing. The games I had earmarked were Northwestern and either MSU or OSU and by the time I figured out the cost of the tickets (need three or four) and the associated fees I was about at $1,000 or so for half-way decent seats. Which made me think of all the things I could spend $1,000 on besides these tickets and I could still watch it in the comfort of my basement.
Will demand come back? Maybe - especially once we start winning again consistently but I wonder. Once you force people into other activities it's awfully hard to get them back for even a few games, much less an entire season committment. I think when all is said and done Brandon & Hoke will have damaged the fanbase far more than we really know.
September 15th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
As Yogi Berra probably said, sometimes people just get old.
To each his own. Go Blue!
September 15th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^
Yeah, it's inevitable people get old and no longer find it worth the trouble. The question is will they be replaced by younger versions of themselves, and considering our recent tradition of sucking, that's not guaranteed.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
It's not even about losing, it's about the way you treat your fans. Like, losing certainly hurts your cause but with that, when the team rebounds, so will the fans who left.
I think the way Brandon pissed off so many students is going to hurt worse. When the alumni from those few years (mself included, I'm a 2013 grad) get to the point where they have the disposable income to spend on tickets, they're going to look back and say "you know, going to the games was always a hassle anyway."
September 15th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
This makes a lot of sense for people who have just aged out of the every weekend commitment to go to games; Lord knows I did even before kid(s) entered into the conversation. And the state's population, and the population that went to UM and sticks around, is smaller, with less disposable income for, as you noted, about $1k for a game to see UM likely either roll over a team or get wasted by one.
When UM gets back to being a top-15-ish program, I think you'll see the fans come back. It's still cheaper than NFL tickets, has way less hassles, and generally you feel like you are watching a "purer" product if that matters to you. I'm looking to head back to a game in a year or two with my daughter in tow so that she can enjoy it, even if the plane+tickets sets me back a bit. But I totally get not wanting to drive 3 hours each time for it. UM needs to convince other fans to take your place, and right now it sure looks like that'll take some time.
September 15th, 2015 at 9:30 PM ^
Have better weather, women, viewing options, and cheaper viewing options here.
Doubt ill ever go back for a game. Might go to austin in 2020 though.
Stadium viewing experience stinks in all aspects. Not sure how theyll improve it. Putting bigger tv screens in the stadium isnt the answer.
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September 15th, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^
Help With Minnesota:
50,000 seats, still lots and lots available. With the Gophers barely squeezing by the Colorado State Rams, it is likely their season will not go well.
vs Kent State
vs Ohio
@ Northwestern
@ Purdue
vs Nebraska
Bye
vs Michigan
@ Ohio State
@ Iowa
vs Illinois
vs Wisconsin
If the Gophers manage to win everything up through Northwestern, I'd look to buy tickets, because they will likely beat Purdue, and if they manage to beat Nebraska as well, ticket prices are going to skyrocket. If they lose anytime before they play Purdue, I think it would be safe to continue to wait.
Basically, if they are 6-1 going into Nebraska, a win will raise the prices significantly, and a loss will decrease the prices slightly. If they are 5-2 going into Nebraska, I don't think a win will have much effect on the prices but I do think an additional loss will decrease the prices.
I wouldn't expect them to get much below 40-50$ a pop regardless, being the only (currently scheduled) night game for Minnesota. If Minnesota loses 2 more before Nebraska, you can probably wait until last minute and get them for less.
September 15th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^
I agree on the MN comments. The gopher market is still a bit fickle. They've gotten a steadier following since TCF opened, but it will go as the team goes. If they're putting out sludge-farts for games and drop one or two, tickets will be easy to come by.
Also, just a guess, but there will be a last-minute spike in available tickets. As Halloween parties get planned and on people's radar, they'll look to dump tickets. A Minnesota football game is easily dropped from your day planner if something else pops up.
September 15th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
Some of my best memories are of buying Michigan tickets on the street. This would have been back in the 1989 - 1993 time frame.
Back then people hawking tickets on the street was a common thing. Not sure if it's still that way, or if local authorities have clamped down on it.
I can still hear it -- "Tickets! Who needs tickets!" :-)
September 15th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
You just have to keep an eye out for police. Along Hill Street and in front of the Union are where i look if I need one.
But the volume isn't the same. Face it, we have had a long stretch of teams under RR and Hoke that have caused more casual fans to lose hope. Start winning and it'll be like it was.
Not that it makes it easier or cheaper to buy the stray ticket when you need it.
September 15th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
September 15th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
It dipped way down Saturday night. Maybe that was a blip? They were still selling at face or thereabouts this morning.
September 15th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
September 15th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
What is "LOT 2"?
I've been counting the times when I find 2 tickets in the same row and section (a nice old trick) and you can get an $86 and a $92 (including fees) right now.
September 15th, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^
TiqIQ.
I also found two seats $100 apiece on the 45 yard line on Baltimore craigslist:
September 15th, 2015 at 6:56 PM ^
September 15th, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^
September 15th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^
You would think Brian would buy everyone season tickets for major sports as part of the job. :)
September 15th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
Kickstarter?
September 15th, 2015 at 2:36 PM ^
I don't see any OSU tix on TiqIQ for $144 except for singles. The cheapest ticket now is $186 base price, $223 total price. Is that day to day fluctuation or just a mistake in the table?
September 15th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^
The OSU and MSU tickets both went up since I wrote this. Or at least the lows I was seeing got eaten up.
September 15th, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
Ugh, bought UNLV way too early.
September 15th, 2015 at 6:52 PM ^
September 15th, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^
BEST DEAL RIGHT NOW (that I can find on the sponsor's site because let's support people who support us okay?)
Being the sponsor gets them in the door, and guarantees they get looked at alongside the much more well-established sources. It shouldn't get their prices mentioned to the exclusion of better deals if there are some.
September 15th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
Is it the lowest price it has dipped to or what?
September 15th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
Haven't we all studied economics? Supply and demand seems like a pretty simple, understandable principle to me. The crummy product drove up supply, and it will take a while until demand gets back to where it used to be. One thing that I really think would help would be for students to be able to easily sell their tickets wherever and whenever and to whomever they want, with no restrictions. This would slightly increase supply, but would also move things towards the stadium being full, which it currently isn't.
I'm not quite as pessimistic as mgrowold, but yeah, once you've gotten used to spending your Saturdays doing other stuff, it is hard to justify season tickets. If I go to a couple or three games live, watch half the games on TV, and miss others because they are either stinkers or I'm doing stuff that is important (kid's games, etc.) that works for me. The biggest downside is that it is much harder and more expensive to get tickets to the marquee games (OSU, MSU, ND, PSU).
As an aside, mgrowold's argument is the reason I don't invest in cable TV. In Chicago, with CBS, NBC, ABC, WGN, PBS, Fox, and a smattering of others, I can survive. And I have no problem going to the bar or better yet, to a friend's house to catch games that are only broadcast on cable. Once you total the time and the cost, it just isn't worth it to spend for season tickets, or for Cable TV, or for a number of other things.
September 15th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
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September 15th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^
Every game is an away game for me since I live out of state, so when I look for tickets I am not looking for the cheapest/worst seats available and that's what this chart seems to track. I want to sit in a decent area, on the Michigan side, not too high up and this is not what the chart is tracking. I did score seats on the 45 yard line for the Penn State game for $100 each. Just insanely lucky there, as the price for those seems double now. Maryland tickets are now officially sold out on their site as of last week. Looking on Stubhub at least 10 times a day for good tickets there on the Michigan sideline.
September 15th, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^
Seth, you can have my 2 tix for UNLV if you like. Sec38 Row64. Sadly, no games for me this year as I've relocated to El Paso. My umich mail is keick.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:44 AM ^
I'm good on tickets but if you want to do a ticket transfer.
Any readers need?
September 16th, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^
Tickets are gone.. to a fellow reader :)
Great column Seth!
September 15th, 2015 at 8:55 PM ^
September 15th, 2015 at 9:04 PM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 6:35 AM ^
If you're ever unsure about where the seats are or how much they're going for in that section...JUST USE YOUR PHONE!
Scalpers win because they pressure you - just stay relaxed and take all the time you need. If they leave, they leave. But YOU be sure.
NEVER buy from a scalper without at least checking StubHub or one of those ticket sites to see how much tickets are going for in the exact same area. Also, most scalpers don't account for all of the fees on those sites...so if you pay $55 for a ticket and in that section it's going for $60 on StubHub, well really it's going for like $70 on StubHub after you pay all the charges. So you really saved some money.
If you don't know seat or row numbers...do your research. Everything is on Google...look it up. ViewFromMySeat can usually provide some information. For example, in many stadiums and arenas, I never know if AA or BB means at the bottom or at the top once they've already gone through all the single letters. It's different everywhere you go...so just look it up. This is the kind of stuff you should probably research BEFORE buying tickets anywhere anyway, so hopefully you're already familar with the arena or stadium before you approach anyone or buy online.
Use your phone and get all the information you need to make an informed decision.
September 16th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^
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September 16th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
I just bought four tickets to Maryland and did tons of searching and got great deals on great seats. The price listed here are for the worst seats available in the stadium and do not include Seller fees. I think the extra fees and tix locations should be explained a little better.
My thoughts - thanks
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September 21st, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^
September 21st, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^
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