Which team out-rushes who is not as meaningful a statistic as it's often made out to be. In a rivalry game like Michigan vs Michigan State, when one team out-rushes the other 199-146, it's no more meaningful.

Michigan out-gained the Spartans 406-196 in the passing game, which would seem to seriously outweigh the run game deficit. They also matched the Spartans in the turnover department, each team had two and it appeared Michigan State should have had three.

None of those factors were the problem for Michigan in this game.

The problem was this:

• Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins: 27 carries, 104 rushing yards, 3.9 ypc, ZERO rushing touchdowns
• Kenneth Walker: 23 carries, 197 rushing yards, 8.6 ypc, FIVE rushing touchdowns

"Didn't you just say it doesn't matter so much who out-rushes who?"

What matters is that those three players happened to be the three best offensive players for these two teams. Cade McNamara was able to produce 383 passing yards at 8.7 ypa with two touchdowns and a single interception late when the game was already all but lost. None of this damage was enough, it couldn't stick. Michigan isn't built to beat teams throwing the ball with Cade McNamara to this Ronnie Bell-less cast of receivers and while they did a credible job, they couldn't do quite enough without Corum and Haskins doing the heavy lifting. In particular, they could pile up yards between the 20s but they couldn't find the end zone.

Meanwhile, Sparty routinely got big plays from their star running back Kenneth Walker who repeatedly found the end zone and converted several key downs.

You can out-gain an opponent and beat them up and down the box score but if they make a few key plays that virtually ALWAYS end with the running back in the end zone, you will still lose.

[HOW DID MICHIGAN STATE GAME THE MATCHUPS? MORE AFTER THE JUMP]

McNamara's big day

Michigan did have some good stuff rolling in the passing game they used to hammer away at the Spartan defense. The Spartans rolled with big Darius Snow at Sam linebacker in this game, their hybrid nickel backer spot, and his 6-foot-1, 220 pound frame was very useful in containing the Michigan run game.

Xavier Henderson also predictably played around the box to help stifle the Wolverine ground game. Consequently, Michigan was in 3rd-and-long an awful lot. This was okay early but ultimately doomed the Wolverines.

Between 3rd down and 4th down passing attempts, Cade McNamara was 9-16 for 212 yards at 13.3 ypa with eight conversions. Pretty fantastic.

Yet down the stretch, on the final seven attempts, he was 2-7 for 50 yards at 7.1 ypa with two conversions. In other words, they started scorching hot on passing downs and then cooled all the way down to freezing temperatures by the end of the game.

I'm including some of Michigan's early successful conversions, but first...

pic.twitter.com/WbvXVwwljs

— Asst to the Minister of Culture (@Ian_A_Boyd) November 2, 2021

...you gotta love it. Long winding, double A-gap and double B-gap zone blitzes of the Pat Narduzzi mold. Sparty wasn't up to their old standards on these and gave up this nonsense after a few bad ones early.

A good chunk of Michigan's early passing down success was the result of effective usage of a particular shallow cross passing concept.

pic.twitter.com/Hc96PzSale

— Asst to the Minister of Culture (@Ian_A_Boyd) November 2, 2021

Erick All did a lot of his 10 catches for 98 yards damage on these dig routes, they were routinely putting the Spartan linebackers and down safety in conflict trying to navigate the risk of letting a shallow run wide open underneath them to getting enough depth to stop the dig routes.

On the three GIF'd examples they caught Xavier Henderson either dropping deep and vacating the underneath hook zone the dig route would threaten or blitzing. They also beat him a few times dropping into the flat. Here's how it looked on the board against such a snap from State:

The linebackers for Michigan State simply aren't very good in coverage. They don't always get good depth, they don't change direction super well, and generally look like fish out of water trying to find and match patterns in the middle of the field. This was known going in and a reason I gave for confidence in a solid day from McNamara.

The over/under threat from Blake Corum on a shallow cross and Erick All running behind the linebackers on a dig was a bit too much for the Spartans. At least early on.

Later in the game the killer plays were 3rd-and-3 and then 4th-and-3 on the second to last drive. Michigan was driving with a chance to get down the field and score the game-winning touchdown with time expiring. On 3rd-and-3 they took a slot fade which McNamara barely over threw. Underneath Michigan had the tight end and the other slot (it was a 3x2 formation) run quick ins under the linebackers. A quick throw to either was a bit iffy on whether or not they'd secure the catch as Michigan State was doubling both of them with a linebacker and a safety.

Great play-call by Michigan State to squeeze those inside routes which had tortured them all day and forcing Michigan to make a play throwing down the field and outside against the much better defensive backs on the team.

On 4th-and-3 they ran a pick play against press-man coverage and McNamara rushed a throw Cornelius Johnson couldn't get to because he ran into the defender trailing the other slot receiver.

Ultimately, Michigan couldn't make a play throwing to their actual receivers when they needed it most and State was doubling All.

Walker's big runs

Walker had three scoring runs of 27, 23, and 58 yards in this game. Take them out of the average and he was 20-89 yards at 4.5 ypc and two rushing touchdowns. In other words, Michigan played pretty good run defense except when they didn't.

One of the other two touchdown runs came on a simple lead outside zone play where Michigan State hurried into the formation and ran the play quickly before the Wolverines were set. They repeated the trick later on at least two occasions.

The first was on a 3rd-and-4 in which they lined up quickly to run the play and the Wolverines didn't get outside linebacker Jaylen Harrell in proper position to set the edge. He seemed confused about whether he had to cover the slot receiver (he didn't, Daxon Hill spun down late) and was hesitant to set the edge, leading to getting kicked out by the tight end and opening a big crease for the 58-yard score by Walker.

The next time they hurried into the play Michigan stopped the run but still gave away a first down because of a substitution infraction. Tough day at the office for the Michigan defense, giving away two touchdown runs and another first down simply because they were caught out of position by tempo.

Some of the other big plays also came on coaching wrinkles from the Spartans which proved decisive.

Here was the coup de grace, the 23-yard score which occurred after the J.J. McCarthy fumble.

It's a zone-read play but the right tackle folds and the right guard blocks out on the defensive end. The read element is what beat Michigan.

The boundary outside linebacker (B here) is playing contain on the quarterback but the strong safety doesn't want to let the tight end run open and uncontested so he matches him, leaving two of the front seven defenders containing the backside with no one in the backside A-gap. Such are the perils of a 5-2 front with only one inside linebacker. Said linebacker fit the frontside and when the folding right tackle helped clear out the nose tackle it made a massive downhill lane for Walker.

The free safety, who was disguising a deep safety alignment, couldn't get over with a good angle and missed and then it was time for the fight song.

This was a nice wrinkle, as was the Wildcat formation for Walker which picked up a big conversion running "quarterback GT counter" with Walker as the quarterback and Payton Thorne flexed out wide, harmlessly by the sideline.

Michigan State landed the early 27-yard score and the 58-yarder on the 5-2 front as well. If you crease the front, there's not much behind it to fix the problem and a player like Walker is liable to find a crease and then explode through it for a big gain. Overall this was a weaker dimension to the Michigan gameplan, which was otherwise mostly effective at denying deep shots from Thorne and inflicted two (should have been three) turnovers.

With the game on the line, Michigan State had ammo for their best player while Michigan was counting on their quarterback to hit a less established wide receiver corps.

Is the season ruined?

There are two or three obvious complaints for Michigan in this game. I don't understand how the officials overturned the fumble they recovered in the end zone for a defensive touchdown which would have made the game 27-14. Truly a bizarre decision on the review.

J.J. McCarthy getting crucial "four minute offense" snaps makes sense to me. You really want to run the ball there in order to run clock and it was hard to run the ball against State without involving the mobile quarterback in the option game. He fumbled. Freshman make freshman mistakes on the road, such is life.

This was a game in which everyone wonders if the Wolverines' limitations at quarterback would ultimately come back to bite them, and they sort of did, McNamara's big early success notwithstanding. However, the outlook for the rest of the season depends heavily on how the matchups with Penn State and Ohio State go. Honestly, it's hard for me to imagine Michigan beating Ohio State and anyone seeing this season as anything other than a resounding success.

Whether or not Ohio State can successfully gum up the works for the run game, force McNamara to make throws to beat them, and then not give away the game against him as they nearly did against Penn State seems to be the question of the year.

In the meantime, on to Indiana and pursuit of the season's 8th win.