SEARCHBITS XI: APPARENTLY THESE ARE DAILY? Comment Count

Brian

I don't really have much today. Sorry. Monday must be trash night. Wait a second…

/takes out trash

angryharbaugh1[1]nfl_u_jimharbaugh_ah_600[1]

never not funny

ANYWAY. Yesterday was notable for two reasons: the Football Bust and a you-dead Harbaugh press conference. Harbaugh's response to the inevitable Qs about his job:

“I don’t talk about any other job other than the one that I have,” Harbaugh told reporters on Monday.  “And I’ve answered this question many times, even recently, so you’d know exactly what my priorities are.  I get this from the Marines, ‘Leaders eat last.’  My number one priority is winning football games.  Second priority is the welfare of our players, our coaches, all our staff, for the welfare of our team.  And lastly is my own personal professional future.”

If that quintessential non-denial-denial was not sufficient, poke a Michigan insider and he's calling BS on reports that Michigan is out. Webb:

…the growing NFL sentiment that Harbaugh will remain in the professional ranks is an overstatement in our view, it does speak to the belief held by some that have talked to him in recent weeks that he will be tougher to lure away from the pros than previously thought. The source to which Harbaugh reported his ongoing uncertainty about the future to put the odds of his return to Ann Arbor at 50/50.

See also 247, Rivals, etc. The divergence between the Michigan people and the NFL people is massive. It would probably be even larger if anyone knew exactly what happened with Brandon and Harbaugh in 2010. In retrospect, the popular story about how he was in the bag and then flaked sounds a lot like Dave Brandon making himself look good instead of objective reality. Brandon blew everything else and was a pathological liar. If his version of 2010 events is the reason people are hesitant, I might increment myself from hopeful to optimistic.

WE DON'T HAVE FLIGHT AWARE SO GIVE US THIS AT LEAST. We're gonna extrapolate from minimal information and nobody can stop us. Block the plane, fly commercial: whatever, man. We've got body language.

Watch the relevant part of Jim's latest press conference here, from 7:40 to 8:35. http://mgovideo.com/jim-harbaugh-monday-presser-12-8-14/

Now watch this youtube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiIP_KDQmXs

HE'S HIDING SOMETHING!!!1!

Seriously though, he tenses right up, starts using his hands/arms, sort of rambles, etc. You get a body language expert in here, and that's a Michigan coach at that podium.

Let's get a body language expert in here then.

SHORTLY AFTER, YOU SAY? Tyree Kinnel tells Scout's Dave Berk that a Michigan assistant contacted him and said that Michigan hopes to have a head coach in place($). "right after Christmas." Like, four days after maybe?

Les-Miles[1]

sad clapz

MILES? Webb also reiterated what Les Miles himself said a couple days ago: unlike everyone from Steve Addazio on up, he hasn't heard anything from Michigan. Lorenz thinks that's not a death knell for his prospects($) if Harbaugh doesn't happen; John U Bacon had a similar take in a post-Bust interview with the local Fox station that MGoUser michgoblue provided Cliffs Notes for on the board. I'm still skeptical, as you know.

AS FOR THE BUST. Not much of interest coaching-search wise, just Hackett saying he has been "blown away" by the level of interest in the job and Reggie McKenzie advocating Mike Trgovac.

Trgovac was an interesting candidate in 2007 while he was in the midst of a pretty successful run as the Panthers' DC, but he's been stuck as the Packers' DL coach since 2009. It is kind of surprising that we hear about Teryl Austin but not him; neither is likely to be plan B… or G.

PLAN B? OKAY. I've heard Bob Stoops may be available as familiarity with an .800 win rate breeds contempt at Oklahoma; Lorenz echoes that strongly($) in his latest, and you begin to wonder if there was something real behind that Stoops-should-leave moment we had a few weeks ago, as unlikely as that seems. Chris Petersen was never going to go anywhere until he did; Bob Stoops could be in a similar boat.

It still seems highly doubtful. It's just plausible enough to kick the tires and see what happens, which at least makes it a lot more sensible than Sean Payton.

Meanwhile: this is yet another spread coach. In Stoops's case it's an Air Raid so prolific that seemingly half the country has an offensive coordinator from the Stoops tree. Stoops famously installed Mike Leach in his first year as a head coach because he hated defending Kentucky's offense and wanted to hire it, and he's never waved. That shouldn't be a problem, but recent history of Michigan etc etc etc. The Air Raid is a better fit with Michigan's current QB corps, but if you want a pro-style guy this is not it. (If this does not make you reconsider your pro-style dogmatism, I cannot help you.)

COORDINATORS? I'd be fine with a coordinator if he came with the correct combination of impressive performance, recruiting output, and long-term upside—I've got a brief post later today on how frequent the promotion is even for big time programs. Sam's starting to poke around those guys as well, mentioning a few NFL guys($) even outside the obvious Teryl Austin. IRL troll Colin Cowherd brought up Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell, a former Wisconsin QB who's been an OC in the NFL for about a decade. If Michigan is going to make the dubious decision to grab an NFL coordinator, he is one of the guys who makes some sense.

I'm not too interested  those gentlemen, but Sam also says that one of the 14-man list Hackett told the team he was evaluating is a current Big Ten coordinator($). That can only be one of two guys: Pat Narduzzi or Tom Herman.

ncf_i_herman_576x324[1]

Who's up for decades of Herman's Head jokes? Just me? Oh.

This site is highly intrigued by Herman, who Urban Meyer yoinked off an uninspiring three-year tenure as Iowa State's OC to his great profit. Since, he's coordinated consecutive top-ten offenses by any metric you care to name. The latter is an incredibly resilient year in which Herman lost four OL, his QB, and his top RB without batting an eye, then lost his second-string QB and still turned Wisconsin into a radioactive, glassy plain.

Herman is a Broyles finalist this year and was the 2013 Rivals Big Ten recruiter of the year—he's the total package.

Narduzzi is a bit less exciting because it's hard to tell exactly how much he is the MSU defense and how much is Dantonio. That's less of a concern for Herman because Dan Mullen went on to succeed at Mississippi State and Florida cratered under Steve Addazio; Meyer is also less insanely involved in the day-to-day after his UF freakout period.

There were also some signs that MSU's defense was beginning to get figured out this year. Oregon and Ohio State took advantage of MSU's aggressive cover-four safeties by blazing guys down the slot until the Spartans didn't know what to think; I'd prefer the guy who put up 49 this year on the MSU defense instead of the guy who ceded same.

Either would be preferable to a low-upside head coach, be he an older gentleman or a debatably good idea.

PLAN Z. File this under "agent": Washington coach Jay Gruden, who has done nothing in his coaching career of note other than be named Gruden, is getting fired soon. You will not be shocked what is being floated out there by his agent, then:

One source I trust tipped me off to a potential landing spot for Gruden: The University of Michigan. This source, who is intimately familiar with the Wolverines’ rapidly emerging coaching search, informed me on Thursday that initial contact has been made between the parties and that Gruden’s representation was enthusiastically open to the potential. I can’t put a figure on the likelihood of Gruden fleeing to Ann Arbor, and another UM source I trust refused to confirm anything I asked, but it’s an interesting leverage point nonetheless.

Never trust a sentence with "rapidly emerging" in front of words that need no adjectives. Gruden is 3-10 with Washington and most of his coaching career prior was spent in the Arena League; this snippet means that Gruden's agent called Michigan and was not quite laughed at. The only thing this means is that he's out the door in Washington; it has no relevance to Michigan's search.

Etc.: I agree.

Comments

Space Coyote

December 9th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

Even NFL ones. I think they are extremely high-variability, but I'd prefer that at this point that a mediocre coach.

As for B1G coordinators. Outside of the one year with Brantley at QB, Addazio and Mullen have very, very similar advanced statistics for their offenses. Yeah, Mississippi St, but Temple and Boston College. While I certainly have some of the same issues with Herman as I do Mullen (despite what I said above, Addazio is still far down the list and I don't think is viable), I like Herman more as an upside hire as I think he's been more successful away from Meyer than either Mullen or Addazio has.

Narduzzi isn't coming to Michigan. I know people say throw the money at him, but he really is not coming to Michigan, he despises Michigan. But anyway, how much of the MSU defensive success is his and how much is Dantonio's? Well, the scheme is significantly Narduzzi's, but Dantonio (who learned from Saban) has a large role in the DBs day-to-day (Dantonio, like Saban, was more of a multiple coverage guy). With the importance DBs play in that scheme, that's risky, but word from some people closer to the program that I trust is that if Narduzzi left, some of the defensive position coaches would leave with him (Tressel would probably get promoted to DC). All that said, Narduzzi's father was a rising DC that took a head coaching job early at a place that stunk and couldn't overcome it, and it is said that a huge regret for Narduzzi's dad was not being content with being a DC in a strong program. I wouldn't be surprised if Narduzzi, like Bud Foster, was happy being a DC and waiting out Dantonio's tenure.

If Stoops is at all realistic, Michigan should jump on that. I'd put him 1B with Harbaugh easily. Miles should be out, low upside, old, and as said in the Mullen piece, shady shady. I think the NFL guys that Brian listed are good possibilities; the catch that isn't being talked about with Jay Gruden is that he's bringing in Jon Gruden to be his OC, which is a nice deal (otherwise he should be off the table).

Space Coyote

December 9th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^

No way Jon is joining Jay anywhere (and I wouldn't really want Jay, not that Michigan appears to want Jay either).

Though I actually think Jon would really enjoy coaching college football (because he could try all the different concepts and things that he's loved to learn since being out of football - Chip Kelly is one of his favorite coaches), I think he's more happy having his QB Academy, being regarded as a great coach, and learning as much about football as possible without the stress of actually coaching football.

blueinbelfast

December 9th, 2014 at 1:05 PM ^

My issue with NFL coordinators would be the complete black hole in the portion of the resume in which you get some sense of their ability to recruit.  Yes, it's great that you can say you coached x, y, and z players in the League, but if you can't deal with parents or deeply egotistical 16-year-olds (and let's face it--who wants to?), it's far from clear that you can get them to come play for you.

Space Coyote

December 9th, 2014 at 1:10 PM ^

And in some ways, postiion coaches may be better candidates.

There are two problems with NFL guys: the one you stated, and to begin teaching players at a very different baseline. When people complained about Borges as a QB coach, it's the difference teaching McNown and Denard, but now McNown is already at an NFL baseline. And that's across position groups. So that's another risk (it's not that the NFL guys don't know the stuff, it's their lack of familiarity/comfort teaching those things).

But if they are willing to recruit (I think being a relatively younger, high energy guy is pretty much a necessity), then you can sell NFL ties well enough to recruit. If you're an old NFL guy just looking for a gig, it's a bad setup. The hours are too different. But then you run into the flight risk problem (see Bill O'Brien).

So yeah, I think if you're smart about it, you can pull it off (get college assistants that know the college game too). And that may put the program back on track for the time being. It's a high-variance thing, but I'd rather that then pulling in an Addazio type.

UMaD

December 9th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^

I think Austin potentially fits the bill for the things you're talking about.  The lack of HC experience is certainly concerning but it applies to people like Herman and Narduzzi as well.  I'd rather have someone like Austin who has been around a lot of college programs with good coaches than somebody trying to navigate the college waters as a relative newbie.

Austin, potentially, has a nice balance between knowing college and being able to sell the NFL experience to recruits (a la Mattison).  Of course, he's well behind Stoops and Harbaugh so we're talking about the Plan C candidates.

With any coordinator type (college or pro) it's important to surround yourself with other good people and address your personal limitations.  For Austin, he'd need to lean on a veteran OC or DC with extensive college experience, I would think.

The Man Down T…

December 9th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

Anything above .500 at Iowa State Is a good coaching job and anyone who can make ISU compete on offense is a good coach.  They don't get the recruits and usually Iowa beats them out for the ones they want.  It's like winning at Duke or Northwestern just without the grade standards.  Combine that with what Herman is doing at OSU, which is incredible, and that would be a fine coach pickup for us.  

Might even get me over my heartbaugh break if it falls through.

Space Coyote

December 9th, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^

Not as viable a candidate as Kirby Smart. I know, I know, don't know much as far as what's him and what's Saban, but I think his success (he was also a DB guy under Saban, so he's been taught everything he needs to be successful as far as a coach) would make him a better candidate.

That said, Nuss would have probably been the more likely of the two to accept an offer. Smart is unlikely to leave the south (Nuss had at least been at MSU).

UMaD

December 9th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

He almost certainly would have been.  That's why using small sample sizes like the last 3 years can get you in trouble and why decision-makers prefer to avoid the risk and go with a proven commodity even if said commodity is a bit uninspiring (see Nebraska's new head coach.)

UMaD

December 9th, 2014 at 3:34 PM ^

Scenario A:  Nuss sticks at Alabama, manages a dominant offense, gets tons of credit, heavily hyped for a head coaching gig.

Scenario B: Nuss leaves Alabama, manages a ineffective offense, loses job, gets no hype for anything.

Same guy, same skillset, different outcome. In one scenario he is overrated and in the other underrated.

My intended point is to say that the success of 'hot' coordinators isn't necessirly transferable (to a new school or new HC role). People who are successful over the long-run, even with some bumps along the way, shouldn't be discarded even if the shine of potential greatness has rubbed off.

One example I'm thinking of is Schiano.  Not that I want him as our coach, but as far as Plan D coaches he's not the worst option in the world.  It's not unreasonable to see him as a superior candidate to Narduzzi or Chad Morris from the perspective of risk.  Would I prefer Morris or Herman to Schino? Yes -- but that's the allure of potential talking. Schiano had his bumps along the road, but what he did at Rutgers is impressive IMO. The guy can run a program. Furthermore, I think coaches can learn from past mistakes (see Pete Caroll, etc.)  For this reason, I also think Muschamp has a decent chance of bouncing back at some point. Past media whipping boy Lane Kiffin is going to get another shot too.

shorter MNC: Very recent outcomes are overrated relative to overall trajectory.

ruraljuror

December 9th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^

I really hope it's Herman if we don't land JH. That offense is just absurdly awesome to watch. And the fact that Ohio St. fans are terrified of this thought brings me great joy.

sleeper

December 9th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^

"While his Texas State offenses led the Southland Conference in total offense each season, his time at Rice was particularly notable. His offenses broke over 40 school records and in his second season the Owls won 10 games and went to a bowl for the first time since 1954.

Furthermore, Rice ranked in the Top 10 nationally in 2008 in passing offense (5th; 327.8), scoring offense (T8th; 41.6) and total offense (10th; 472.3). Two Rice receivers had more than 1,300 yards receiving that year, tight end James Casey had 111 catches and quarterback Chase Clement was the Conference USA MVP."

While Harbaugh is the guy we all want, if he says no, do you think Hackett has the balls to hire Herman? Unfortunantly, I do not, as I think they feel they need to hire someone with Head Coaching experience. Also, would we be willing to wait until the OSU season is over before we can hire him? I do not think he would take the job before then. 

alum96

December 9th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^

I agree he did well in the 2nd of 2 years at  Rice (first year was ho hum).  I am concerned about the Iowa State situation.  Basically at 5 years at ISU and Rice he had one very good year, his 2nd at Rice.  20% success rate is not inspiring.

True Blue Grit

December 9th, 2014 at 1:04 PM ^

I'd think Herman should be on the short list of Plan B's.  Overall, I'd rather have someone with proven HC experience though.  But, we could get him for a lot less money than a bigger name and he would at least fix our offense.  Defensively, we'd still need a great DC if Mattison decided to leave. 

bdneely4

December 9th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^

and track record of Herman.  If he does end up getting the job, I hope it plays out like this:

Urban Meyer encourages Herman to find a HC position as long as it is not Michigan.  Herman thinks screw you Urbz and accepts the position to coach at University of Michigan.  The rivalry is refueled and Herman bleeds maize and blue.

I guess what I am saying is I want a coach that can't stand OSU.  It will just fuel them to to put more emphasis on The Game.

PA Wolverine

December 9th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^

Davis was asked (having coached in college and the NFL) if he would rather take on a rebuild project in the NFL with no/ a questionable quarterback or take the Michigan job.  He stated how important a good QB is and that questions at the QB position help coaches realize that NFL truely can stand for Not For Long.  He said the Michigan job (which he stated was still one of the top jobs in college football) will get you an audience with a couple of the top 10 QBs each year.  That coupled with the facilities and the fanbase would make him select the Michigan job over a rebuild in the NFL.  He made these statements on ESPN radio.

Ron Utah

December 9th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^

While Oklahoma was a passing spread for years, the past two seasons have seen a decided shift towards the run:

Year Run% Pass%
2014 60.11% 39.89%
2013 59.34% 40.66%
2012 43.18% 56.82%
2011 44.58% 55.42%
2010 47.73% 52.27%

OU ran a ridiculous 1,211 plays in 2010, and this year will be the first in a long time they run fewer than 1,000.  To put that in perspective, Michigan did not run 1,000 plays under RR and haven't run more than 893 since Rodriguez left.

My point is that Stoops runs a HUNH spread, but they seem content to emphasize their strength, rather than commit to being an air raid.  What's amazing is that they run from the spread, but rarely use their QB--only 89 (17%) of 526 rushing attempts have come from QBs this year.  Compare that to 179 (30%) of 587 for Ohio State QBs.

Stoops wants an efficient, HUNH offense, even if it's not an air raid.  That his team has run effectively from the spread with minimal QB usage is certainly a hopeful sign since our roster has QBs that really aren't all that spectacular as runners, though Morris is underrated.  FWIW, I believe Morris' best chance of success is a system much like OU's.

Space Coyote

December 9th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

They were heavy under center, 11 personnel with good use of their TEs for a while as well. Leach's offense at TTU was fairly different than his offense at Oklahoma (likely because of the talent difference, but maybe also due to Stoops to a degree). They are closer to a spread, but they are also fairly multiple in that they utilize some pro-style concepts in there as well. FWIW, they will run the QB more if they have a bit better running QB (Knight was also beat up this year, which limited it). If there was a comparable offense from Michigan, it would be Carr's last game. That's probably what Michigan fans could expect as far as pro-style/spread/air raid mix.

Either way, I think Stoops has had an offense that is adaptable enough to handle different elements, personnel strengths, etc, and with guys like Murray and Peterson going through his program, a bunch of great WRs, some good TEs, Heisman trophy winning QBs, and a boat load of defensive talent, recruiting against anyone, including Meyer (Stoops originally from Ohio) would be about as strong as it could get for Michigan given the circumstances.

robpollard

December 9th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

If we don't get Harbaugh, we would be thanking our lucky stars if we got Bob Stoops. Go look at the man's record -- it's not Saban, but it's the next level below, and we haven't had anyone with that many wins, overall and over big time opponents (e.g., Alabama last year) since Bo.

I can't believe someone would complain if we got Stoops b/c he runs the spread. That would make my head hurt.

The Baughz

December 9th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^

Stoops will adapt to personnel. Look at what his freshmen RB is doing this year. You can still be a power team without lining up under center. Also, maybe we need more of a spread passing attack. Let Shane or whoever it is get the ball out of hands quickly. We will have Norfleet and Canteen as slot guys, and IF Funchess stays, a pretty nice weapon on the outside.

His Dudeness

December 9th, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^

First of all I love that pic on the left of Harbaugh. I mean I really love it. It makes me so happy.

Second, I am all for Herman if JH turns us down (which is his right). If the Stoops rabble turns out to be a smoke screen I would take Herman next. His recruiting would be bonkers and he has proven himself to be both competent and intelligent. I dig.

1- Harbaugh

2- Stoops

3- Herman

 

PA Wolverine

December 9th, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^

Heard today that Herman is on Houston's radar.  They are looking to go with an offensive minded coach and his time at RIce is seen as a plus when it comes to recruiting.

Class of 1817

December 9th, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^

Fantasy Top Five:

Harbaugh 1, Harbaugh 2, Stoops, Miles...Randomizer Name You Have a Particular Preference For.

If Herman would bite...I'd say that's the top of the Non-Fantasy List.

Nickel

December 9th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

Is anyone else a little worried that even if we do land Harbaugh, it'll only be for a few years before he flees to the pros again?  This doesn't seem like a Saban situation where he decides he's not cut out for the NFL, it sounds like Harbaugh still has quite a bit of interest in the leage.

Now if he comes here and puts Michigan back on top in two years before leaving I'll gladly enjoy the ride and the wins, but I can't help but thinking he's going to end up in the pros again at some point.