3/24/2023 – Michigan 11, Colgate 1 – 25-11-3

3/26/2023 – Michigan 2, Penn State 1 (OT) – 26-11-3, Frozen Four

When I'm planning to do a game column for a given game, I spend my time watching it unfold while searching for predominant storylines. Narratives, overarching themes, something that links the action together. As a game shifts, that storyline may shift as well and so it's not uncommon to have multiple different themes/headlines circulating through my head over the course of the game. You have an idea of what you want to write about, then something new comes along and boots it from the spotlight. 

On Sunday I had a couple different themes in my head during the Michigan/Penn State Regional Final. As Michigan peppered Liam Souliere with shots, hitting the post multiple times and dictating play, I figured an ice-breaker goal was inevitable and the plan was to talk about how the Wolverines just kept coming at Penn State until they finally cashed it in. Then Penn State took the lead and as the third period ticked along with the Lions leading 1-0, my focus shifted towards centering the narrative section of this column on how the NCAA Tournament's randomness and cruelty were going to strike again. I planned to write about how the better team, both over the course of the season and in that very game, was going to be eliminated because the NCAA sets up a profoundly stupid tournament with the goal of making sure lesser teams are on even footing with the great teams. 

Then Michigan tied it. And then the game went into overtime. At this point I didn't know quite what to expect, other than to of course prepare for the worst outcome. There was no central theme in my head and I didn't get a chance to establish one in the 52 seconds before Mackie Samoskevich ripped a shot by Liam Souliere to clinch it for the Wolverines. The thrill of victory lit up Michigan Twitter and other social media spheres and after the high began to recede, I sat there wondering where exactly to go with it. There wasn't one obvious, cohesive story to tell about this game but then it dawned on me that the two storylines I was stewing over earlier in the evening was the story. It was a fusion of the two, that Michigan did keep at Penn State and eventually got the big goal... it just came after 22 minutes of staring down the barrel of a shotgun called randomness that defines this most cursed tournament in all of sports.

Sometimes you have to be faced with pain to achieve glory. And sometimes it takes a show of resilience to get it done.

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[David Wilcomes]

The story of Sunday's Regional Final is that Michigan was the better team. They managed to outshoot and out-attempt Penn State, both at 5v5 and in all situations, which, if you read my preview or are familiar with PSU Hockey, is an achievement. If you're out-attempting PSU Hockey, you're whipping them, to put it frank. Now shot attempts are not everything- NHL analytics types have moved steadily away from using Corsi to analyze games and predict future outcomes in recent years, favoring expected goals and other more advanced metrics (high danger chances/scoring chances). But in the under-funded and under-analyzed sport of college hockey, we peasants who rely on the public data only have access to Corsi. 

Thankfully, there is a public expected goals reading and it's called the eye test. Watching the game reveals that not just did Michigan outshoot and out-attempt Penn State, they definitely owned the expected goals battle. The quality of chances and the volume of those chances was far superior for Michigan relative to Penn State. Another metric: the highlight footage. YouTube saint Matthew Loves Ball uploaded a 12 minute highlight package for this game and there is a single PSU offensive highlight in the first period to roughly five for Michigan. That's dominance. 

It continued into the second period, Michigan largely controlling play and PSU attacking off the counter. The Wolverines got the first two power plays as well, with Adam Fantilli hitting the post on their second PP, the second time Michigan had hit the iron after Ethan Edwards was sure he had scored back in the first period. The Maize & Blue felt snakebitten at this point, firing shot after shot, many of them good looks, at a largely mediocre goalie who had decided to put on his Patrick Roy mask for that evening. And when they did get it by him, it was finding the iron or squibbing loose into the crease, only to be cleared by the defense. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More narrative]

[David Wilcomes]

Contrary to the first four meetings between these two teams, this was firmly Michigan's game. The closest comparison was that second meeting in Hockey Valley, when Michigan held a 3-0 lead into the third period and mostly had the game on lockdown, before things spiraled and the Wolverines needed OT to win. The other three meetings were a lifeless effort by Michigan, and then two games that Brandon Naurato's team pulled out in helter skelter, hectic fashion with little feel. Both of those two saw Penn State vastly outshoot and out-attmempt the Wolverines too.

But this game was different, Michigan had it in the palm of their hand. The few looks Penn State got were off the rush going the other way and all of them saw Erik Portillo stand tall. Late in the second period, PSU got their first PP and despite boasting one of the worst PPs among contending teams, put Michigan on their heels after the Wolverines committed a series of mistakes. It didn't take long for the puck to find the back of the net and that's when it felt like the Hockey Gods were out to get us. Going into the second intermission, Michigan was playing their best game of the season against Penn State, yet were trailing 1-0, twenty minutes from elimination. 

Penn State's not the worst team in the world to be trailing in the third period of the tournament, but most all teams in this situation are going to know how to defend competently and PSU did know how to do that. They turned it into a bit more of a slog in the third, as you'd expect, and Michigan came into the period throwing more pucks on net, but couldn't get the right bounces. The shots were jut a little late when the Wolverines elected for change of sides passes, giving Souliere a window to slide across and make a save. Penn State made a bit of a push near the halfway point of the period, with one heroic play from Luke Hughes keeping it out, and then Michigan got the break they needed, another Penn State penalty, coming off a Gavin Brindley rush. It took a minute into the man-advantage, but finally Adam Fantilli snuck a rebound through Souliere and tied the game. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Rallying in that situation in the NCAA Tournament is tough. Teams know how to slow you down, they know how to keep you to the outside, and you just have to operate on the assumption that eventually you'll get a good bounce. Michigan got a decent one off the Samoskevich shot on the PP that gave Adam Fantilli a window on the goal line, but it took a perfect shot from Fantilli to sneak it through Souliere, who was pretty tight to the post. It takes resilience and toughness to tie the game in the third period of a winner-take-all hockey game, even on the PP. It also often requires your best players playing like they're your best players. Adam Fantilli is Michigan's best player. Scratch that, he's the best player in the whole dang country. He was on Sunday night, leading a line that caved in PSU all night long and it was his shot that tied the game, the one that defied randomness. Or at least, got randomness a little bit in Michigan's direction and evened it up. 

From there, Penn State was ready to throw a few metaphorical punches. Naurato put out his fourth line for the first shift back at 5v5 and Penn State ragdolled them, getting chance after chance. A few minutes later, the Ice Lions won an offensive zone faceoff and defenseman Jimmy Dowd Jr. had an opportunity to walk right down broadway in the slot but Erik Portillo came all the way out, 1980s style, to make the save and the ensuing scramble was unsuccessful. For the first time all game, Penn State had the upper hand in the game's last eight minutes. Michigan had spent so much of the energy reserved for regulation to dig deep and get that tying goal, it felt like they were totally spent. As I tweeted at the time, they had to find a way to get to overtime and regroup in the locker room, and that's what happened. Fending off Penn State in those last few minutes to keep the game tied, despite a lower energy level and tired legs, that was also resilience. They got it done, we took a collective deep breath, sat down on the couch, and then remembered: "damnit, we still need one more goal". 

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[David Wilcomes]

Michigan's history in overtime of the NCAA Tournament beyond the first round is bad. A stat circulated after the game from Drew Van Drese on twitter that Michigan had lost its last seven overtimes in round two (or later) of the NCAA Tournament. That doesn't include 2018, which featured a goal scored by Notre Dame to break the tie with just six seconds remaining in regulation. For all intents and purposes, that's overtime too. Michigan fans were as snakebitten as it gets in this situation and most of us were mentally located in our old friend known as the BPONE. 

Then Adam Fantilli put on a headset. Michigan's 18 year old superstar was interviewed by the ESPN2 crew in between the 3rd period and overtime and it was clear from that very first moment that Fantilli gave zero fucks about Michigan's OT history. He wasn't a part of this program, hell, the oldest of the seven games cited in Van Drese's stat occurred in 1999, five years before Fantilli was born. This is a different team than any of those before who were claimed by the Overtime Demons and Fantilli put his neck on the line: "when we play the way we can play, there's no team in the country that can play with us and we're going to prove that next period". He didn't say that after a triumphant victory, he said that before a sudden-death, season on the line OT. If that didn't get you hyped, I don't know what will. 

Fantilli wasn't the one who proved himself correct, though it would've been a Mark Messier in 1994 ECF Game 6-level moment if he had. Instead it was the job of Mackie Samoskevich to do it. After Fantilli's line had a solid first shift to kick off overtime, Penn State chipped the puck out and both teams went for changes. Seamus Casey passed Samoskevich the puck and entered the zone. Casey drove the center lane, creating a bit of space for Samoskevich, as he swerved to the slot and walked in a few paces. Samo then unleashed his lightning quick release, getting maximum flexion on the stick, and ripped the puck by Souliere. By the time the Penn State netminder reacted, the puck had pinged off the post and in: 

The game winner from Mackie Samoskevich

pic.twitter.com/maDJ0cJIPT

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 27, 2023

Souliere had played a phenomenal game, the best of his career adjusting for opponent and circumstance. But he is likely not going to play in the NHL and Mackie Samoskevich likely will. Sometimes an NHL shooter takes a shot that an NCAA goalie can't stop. This was one of those. That's why you recruit the talent Michigan does and sometimes it's the ultimate trump card. It was on Sunday and the better team had won. 

When the celebrations were done in Allentown on Sunday night, what were we left with? A Michigan team that has now won six straight games, four dominant showings against tournament teams since the nervy sweep of Wisconsin in the opening round of the BTT. For the first time all season, they are staying out of the box consistently. For the first time all season, they are controlling play and crucially, playing within structure night in and night out. For the first time all season, they are getting high-end goaltending too. A young team has grown up rapidly in March before our eyes and when they take the ice next in Tampa for the Frozen Four, one thing will be 100% true: when this team plays the way they have over the past four games, no one in the country will beat them. 

In other words, Adam Fantilli was right. 

 

[David Wilcomes]

HockeyBullets 

Minimal words about the Colgate game. Just like last year, I'm beginning the bullets by stating how I do not want to spend any time talking about the 1/4 matchup between Michigan and a vastly overmatched AQ opponent. What I will say is 1.) the spearing by Colgate late in the game was a terrible look, 2.) Carter Gylander played well in net for the Raiders for a while, and 3.) that was a much more impressive 1 vs. 4 game from Michigan than last year. 2022's win over AIC was fine, but it was a bit ragged, not quite the level of controlled precision you'd like to see from a 1 seed in that situation. This year's win over Colgate was, and it belongs alongside the OSU/Minnesota/PSU games that we've seen over the past three weekends in terms of how this Michigan squad has grown up. 

Praise for Erik Portillo. I am BACK to being the #1 Erik Portillo stan, as I was last season. I was a critic for much of this year and I maintain it was completely deserved. The last three weeks, however? You can win a national title with that Erik Portillo. Over this four game run, Portillo has stopped 108 of 116 shots, a .931 SV%. Of the goals he's allowed, I can't remember any that I would largely place blame on him for. He has cut down his issues catching the puck to a minimum and while he is still coming far out of his crease to make saves, it hasn't bitten him yet and he's stopped the initial shots each time. Portillo is not flopping around, he's getting it done. 

Portillo made several big stops against Penn State counter rushes early on, but his biggest sequence no doubt was the one I mentioned off the faceoff following Michigan's equalizing goal: 

That was a momentary defensive breakdown, allowing a shooter access to the most dangerous area of the ice. If Jimmy Dowd Jr. scores there, I feel very comfortable predicting that PSU wins the game. But Portillo answered the call, as you need your goalies to do in sudden death games like this. He's re-found his game at just the right time and two more like this from him and Michigan could win the national title. 

The highs and lows of Luke Hughes. In all, I would say Luke Hughes had a below average game on Sunday night. He wasn't terribly effective offensively, getting pushed to the perimeter, and his dancing moves to get to the slot that often work in shaking defenders pressuring the puck were not working against Penn State. In fact, he was getting turned over a couple of times on those moves, without puck support from a forward, leading to rushes the other way. Those didn't get burned, but he also had a couple of minor (but consequential) errors on the PK goal against, which I will break down in the next point. It was far from his best game after a brilliant showing on Friday and I tweeted last night during the game that I hoped it would not be his last at Michigan, given how Not Great he was. 

But, for all the issues Hughes had in this game, he did have one shining moment: 

pic.twitter.com/2B0JgXIA2A

— CJ Fogler AKA Perc70 #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) March 27, 2023

I still cannot quite tell if he did indeed knock that puck down, but people with access to higher resolution insist that he did so I am willing to say that Hughes saved the day there. Another situation where if that puck goes in for PSU, the Ice Lions are headed to Tampa. But Hughes apparently got his stick out to knock it down and prevent the shot into the empty net. He had a lot of errors, but this one play may have trumped it all. 

About the PPG against. Many things went wrong for Michigan in the span of about thirty seconds, leading to the lone Penn State goal of the game. Let's replay the footage and then break it down:

Michigan wins the defensive zone draw to begin the penalty kill. Keaton Pehrson shoulders his man and nudges the puck to Luke Hughes, who goes around behind the net. Hughes needs to clear the puck and does not, as it is held in by PSU's Christian Berger. It then is flipped down the wall, where a group of Wolverines and Lions congregate but Penn State eventually wins the puck battle, and does so in a way that traps all four Michigan players to one side of the ice, giving PSU numbers on the far side. PSU goes D --> D with Berger to DeNaples, who fires a shot that gets blocked. A weird carom plops the puck near Portillo and Michigan wins that puck battle, but Frank Nazar's clear is again held in at the line.

DeNaples goes D --> D the other way, teeing up a Berger bomb. Michigan's lone skater on that side of the ice is Luke Hughes, who has the choice of either going for the shot block or getting out of the way to take the man on the side. He opts to take the shot block but does not block the shot. Portillo makes the save, but the velocity of the shot produces a big rebound and with no one taking away Connor McEachern, the forward fires it in the exposed net. 

Some people were talking about Portillo's rebound control there, but rebound control is always dependent on two factors: the velocity of the shot and the shot placement. That is a one-time bomb that Portillo is sliding over to save. With the speed of the shot and the movement involved, you can't expect Portillo to be laser-precise on his rebound control, and the bigger the shot, the bigger the rebound most likely. All you ask is for him to make the save on the initial shot and he did. Thus, in order, the culprits are 1.) Hughes failed clear, 2.) group puck battle lost on the boards, 3.) Nazar failed clear, 4.) Hughes going for the shot block and not blocking it. 

[David Wilcomes]

GIVE ADAM FANTILLI THE HOBEY. Right now there is one other player in the country I'm willing to hear a Hobey argument for besides Adam Fantilli, and that's BU's Lane Hutson, who has 48 points in 38 games as a defenseman. That's super impressive and I don't like having to do positional comparisons so I will say that among forwards, Fanttilli is clearly the guy. That's been clear for awhile, but it couldn't be more clear than after this weekend. He now has 64 points, seven more than #2 (Logan Cooley). By points-per-game, he's 0.27 ahead of anyone else (Sean Farrell is next). Fantilli is second behind Jason Polin in goals with 29 (Polin has 30) and he ranks 5th nationally in assists with 35, only two behind Cooley and Luke Hughes. +/- is a terrible stat but even so, Fantilli is 4th nationally at +32, six ahead of the next highest Wolverine (Hughes). 

Fantilli has recorded a point in 31 of 34 games he's played in this season, which is remarkable. He is the best player on the ice in every single game he plays in, and that was the case this weekend. It's also perhaps Michigan's biggest reason for optimism heading into Tampa. In terms of freshman seasons, Fantilli is now just seven points back of Kyle Connor and Jack Eichel for the most points by a freshman nationally in the 21st century. He's probably not going to catch those guys, but they both played more games than Fantilli will play this season. This campaign is right next to those two guys for the best in the modern era (it gets harder to go back in time and adjust for the era Paul Kariya was playing in, for example). Fantilli is one of the very best players to ever play for Michigan Hockey and we will all be remembering his greatness decades from now. 

[David Wilcomes]

Saluting Penn State Hockey. I know I was brutal on Penn State's trick of scheduling a terrible non-conference in order to game PWR and get a good tournament seed in the preview, which was justified, but I have nothing but respect for the work Guy Gadowsky has done in building this program. PSU didn't level up to D1 until 2013-14 and they have very quickly become a legit group, which is not the easiest given that the B1G is loaded and Penn State lacks the fundamental advantages of some of its conference rivals. Michigan and Minnesota are the banner schools in two of the most talent-rich states in the country, while MSU also has a strong recruiting ground and Wisconsin ain't in a bad position to farm players either. Penn State doesn't inhabit as fertile of a state and has no obvious talent reservoir to draw from. To be on this stage, competing with the talent of Michigan, is a hell of a job from Gadowsky. 

This PSU team played their heart out and they deserve to be respected for that. Teams like this one have helped build a legit hockey culture at the school where there was none previously, and Hockey Valley is now one of the more intimidating venues in the B1G without a doubt. That's not easy to do. Also big shoutout to Liam Souliere for his effort last night. I fairly characterized him as a middling goaltender who struggles against the shooters Michigan and Minnesota possess in the preview, but he went out and played the game of his life just to spite me. Kudos to him for that, it was almost enough to get his team to the Frozen Four. 

Please just wear the maize sweaters when at home. This year Michigan went with the maize in Allentown after opting for white last season and I have to get it off my chest: the maize is so much better. The white sweaters are Michigan's third-best uniform, dull and a bit lacking in my opinion. The blue is sharp on the road and the maize... it's the best sweater in college hockey. Make it the home uniform and just run with it, we don't need to see the white sweaters when you have that beauty sitting in the closet. 

 

A rematch of this is coming soon [David Wilcomes]

Recapping the rest of the tournament 

Michigan is headed to their 27th Frozen Four(!), which will be played in Tampa, Florida this season. I know that some people are a bit confused by that but I don't mind it. They've gone to Tampa with the event a couple times previously and both went very well, good attendance and a great atmosphere. Tampa isn't close to any of the schools but the thing is, lots of people want to go to Tampa in April, especially if they live in a cold weather climate. Plenty of fans are happy to book a weekend vacation to follow their team if the destination is in the tropics and not a city best known for being the lyrical figurehead of Rust Belt industrial decay. 

The Wolverines will be joined in Tampa by a pair of familiar foes, Minnesota and Boston U, who will face off in the early game next Thursday, as well as Quinnipiac, who Michigan will play in the late game. As I did last season in this position, I will give you a brief summary of what went down this weekend in case you are solely a Michigan fan who was not following broader college hockey happenings: 

- Bridgeport Regional: This is the one that most immediately affects Michigan, with Quinnipiac coming out of the regional played close to home. The Bobcats had a dominant showing against Merrimack, quashing my upset pick of the weekend (I did get 3/4 Frozen Four picks right, though!) and punching their ticket to the Regional Final. There they faced Ohio State, who boatraced Harvard in a surprising game that resembled the first Michigan-OSU game from this season, where the Buckeye forecheck crushed the life out of the opponent. It looked like that may happen again in the Regional Final, when OSU scored early, but a flurry of QPac goals put them up 2-1 and the stout Bobcat D held the Bucks in check, long enough for an insurance goal to put the icing on the cake late. 

- Fargo Regional: Minnesota looked tight on Thursday night against Canisius in a game they were the overwhelming favorite in, trailing 2-1 in the second, but they took the lead by the end of the period and then a five minute major on Canisius opened the offensive floodgates. St. Cloud State knocked off Minnesota State thanks to goaltending and shooting, which overcame ice tilted towards the Mavs, and then Minnesota played a strong, focused game to down the Huskies 4-1 in the Regional Final.  

- Manchester Regional: The most intrigue of the weekend happened on Thursday afternoon when Cornell stunned Denver 2-0, with a pair of early goals putting Big Red on top and the defending champs were a lifeless carcass for most of the game en route to a shutout defeat. Boston U crunched Western Michigan in an impressive showing during the tournament's opening game and then the Terriers controlled the Regional Final against Cornell, taking an early lead and holding it. BU ended up winning 2-1 and is headed to the Frozen Four for the first time since 2015. 

So there we are, a Frozen Four with three 1 seeds and the lone 2 seed was the highest ranking 2. Just like last season, the four best teams managed to make it through this typically random event to arrive at the final weekend. Pretty cool! Something like 7 of the 12 best players in the country will be playing in the Frozen Four and I couldn't be more excited. It features three ultra-historic programs in Michigan, Minnesota, and BU, as well as a team that has been as consistently good in the regular season  as anyone in the country in Quinnipiac. QPac made the title game the last time the Frozen Four was in Tampa (2016) so they will be hungry to win the program's first national title. No one here is a fraud, they all deserve it. We'll find out who takes home the cake soon.