Indiana Links: Preview, The Podcast, FFFF Offense (chart), FFFF Defense (chart)

Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

You see, in 2005 a law professor from Michigan State stumbled upon the fact that a strange confluence of facts and legal principles come together to create an area that is essentially governed by the terms of The Purge. It’s complicated, but to summarize:

• Crimes committed in a national park can only be prosecuted in federal courts, so Idaho state and local courts have no jurisdiction in Yellowstone.
• By law, all of Yellowstone National Park falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal District Court of Wyoming, even the parts that are in Idaho.
• According to the Sixth Amendment to the Constitution, defendants are entitled to a jury trial, and juries in federal criminal cases must be made up of citizens of both the district and state where the crime was committed.
• The Idaho portion of Yellowstone has no residents. Therefore, there are no eligible jurors.

It’s all fun and games until you step on the red part

So, in short, crimes remain crimes, but there is literally no way to prosecute those crimes. And not just the regular crimes like murder or robbery or hanging toilet paper such that it unrolls in an underhand fashion. You can furnish a pirate with ammunition, stores, or provisions, or you can issue a counterfeit weather report, or you can write a check for $0.97. There are no limits here. Go crazy. Really explore the space.

For more than a decade, Indiana Football served a very similar role for Big Ten teams. You could come in, mess around, violate all of the normal mores and strictures about how to play and win a football game, and somehow—often through little or no active effort to do so⁠—get away with it. Indiana at various points had nearly every decent Big Ten program in a dogfight, only to slip and fall into a pile of garden rakes, banana peels, and coconut cream pies. In 2015 alone, they had #1 Ohio State, #7 Michigan State, #10 Iowa, and #15 Michigan on the ropes, only to drop each in uniquely heartbreaking fashion. Between 2015 and 2019, they lost 8 games against ranked opponents by a single score, played several more extremely closely, and won exactly 1 game against a “ranked” team: the 2016 MSU team that finished 3-9.

No one has been the perpetrator of more unnecessary and unpunished emotional violence against Indiana than Michigan. The list of charges is almost comical:

• 2009: Indiana led with under 3 minutes left. Michigan won.
• 2010: Tie game with under 30 seconds to go. Michigan won.
• 2013: Two point game midway through the fourth quarter. Michigan won.
• 2015: Indiana led with 5 seconds left to go. Double overtime. Michigan won.
• 2016: Michigan threw for 59 yards. Michigan won.
• 2017: Michigan threw for 58 yards. Overtime. Michigan won.
• 2018: One-score game with under 3 minutes left. Michigan won.

Yes, in 2020, Indiana finally rounded up a posse and started enforcing the law. They beat Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin in the same season for the first time ever (probably. I’m not looking that up. But it sounds right). And they entered 2021 ranked #17 in the country. But alas, that moment was fleeting, and at the moment Indiana has seemingly returned to their previous state.

Most of the games listed above came when Michigan was a significant favorite, and usually at a time when Indiana was scuffling. And like in those years, Indiana doesn’t have the talent this year to beat Michigan. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that even if they can’t punish Michigan’s mistakes, they can at least haul Michigan in for questioning. Michigan 32, Indiana 30 (3OT)

COUNTERPUNT

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

The sports and gaming world has been rocked by a series of scams, frauds and scandals over recent history. Let’s take a look at a few of them.

Forged Check, Mate

 

First, it was chess. Last month, world champion and grandmaster Magnus Carlsen suggested that fellow grandmaster Hans Niemann cheated during a live match between the two in which Niemann won. Carlsen’s suspicions of cheating were largely based on Niemann’s relaxed demeanor during the match and perceived lack of concentration and effort while executing extraordinarily sophisticated moves. Niemann responded by admitting he had cheated on two occasions while playing online when he was 12 and 16 years old but that he’d been clean ever since.

A subsequent report issued by Chess.com, a popular platform on which Niemann played frequently, rebutted Niemann’s claims, alleging that it was likely Niemann cheated in at least 100 games. The report’s findings were based on statistical analysis that compared Niemann’s moves to those recommended by algorithmic chess engines, which can play flawless games and soundly beat any human player. According to the report, Niemann had confessed to cheating and accepted a ban from the site. Ever since the report’s release, the entire world of professional chess has been embroiled with controversy and an avalanche of conspiracy theories.

Cheating in online chess is relatively straightforward but how would one cheat in an “over-the-board” match? Speculation has ranged from a discreet electronic device to vibrating anal beads. One fellow player even semi-seriously suggested that future matches be played naked. Niemann still proclaims his innocence and has his supporters, but his past indiscretions and apparent willingness to cheat with a cavalier frequency have fairly drawn dark clouds of suspicion.

When someone signals you the algorithmically optimal move to make but you can’t remember what color you are

Niemann, only 19 years old, has had an unprecedented meteoric rise in the chess world. But is he an utter fraud? It’s too early to tell, but I’ll give him 3.5 Mel Tuckers out of 5 on the fraud scale.

Hook, Line and Sinker

Meanwhile, in the world of competitive fishing, a tournament in Ohio was swept into a storm of scandal this week when officials found lead weights stuffed inside caught fish. Up until this tournament, partners Jacob Runyan and Chase Cominsky had won countless cash competitions, pocketing over $300,000 in the process, and were cruising to yet another victory when tournament officials were suspicious of their consistently heavy catches. When officials inspected their fish, they were stunned to find them stuffed with lead weights concealed in fish fillets for padding. A criminal investigation is in its initial stages, but for now, it is abundantly clear that these two anglers are full on frauds. I give them a deplorable 5 Mel Tuckers out of 5.

All in… on it.

The poker world has also been embroiled in scandal this past week in an absolutely wild hand between Garrett Adelstein, one of the best professional cash game poker players in the world, and relative unknown Robbi Jade Lew. In the hand in question, Adelstein was holding the seven and eight of clubs and Lew was holding the jack of clubs and four of hearts. The flop—which included a nine and ten of clubs—gave Adelstein a straight flush draw, a hand with numerous “outs” and a high chance of winning. Lew, meanwhile, had a terrible hand (jack high) but still called Adelstein’s sizable bet.

The turn card did not help either player, but after Adelstein’s small raise and Lew’s re-raise, Adelstein shoved “all-in” for a staggering $109,000. Lew, in a move that was equal parts dumbfounding, shocking and insane to savvy poker players, called that bet with a very weak hand that would have been beaten by an array of standard bluffs like ace high. Yet, Lew’s move paid off and she won a $269,000 pot. After the cards were revealed, Adelstein spent the next several minutes looking around the table in dumbfounded silence.

When you realize that Nebraska is in first place in the Big Ten West

After the hand, speculation about cheating hit a fever pitch with one camp arguing that Lew was receiving inside tips from casino employees, fellow tablemates or from an electronic device on her body and the other camp arguing that Lew’s actions were far less nefarious and more easily explained by simple stupidity. Muddying the waters was the fact that Lew gave conflicting rationales as to why she did what she did in the hand and actually returned Adelstein’s share of the pot to him after the hand (although she has since said she regretted that decision and was bullied into returning the money).

Is Robbi Lew a fraud? It’s far too early to tell. The casino in question is in the process of a full investigation and both sides have plausible arguments and any evidence of cheating remains squarely circumstantial. At this point, we are in wait and see mode, and Robbi gets 2.5 Mel Tuckers.

We made a $95 million mistake

In November of 2021, Michigan State University granted a $95 million fully guaranteed contract (the third largest ever) to Mel Tucker after a fairy tale season largely buoyed by a confluence of favorable statistical variance and hitting the goldmine in the transfer portal. Tucker has since responded by starting the 2022 season with a 2-3 record and languishing in last place in the Big Ten East. Is Mel Tucker a fraud? Well, I give him #DIV/0! Mel Tuckers

Let’s Get Meta

In 2018, popular website www.mgoblog.com made the highly questionable decision to ask @internetraj to contribute to the weekly Counterpunt column previewing Michigan football games. For the last four years, Raj has obfuscated his clear and utter lack of football knowledge by writing meandering, often nonsensical columns that spend 95% of their word counts on esoteric and non-football related content, leaving only the last few sentences to—at best—tangentially talk about the actual game of the week. This is classic fraudulent behavior. Raj, I give you 5 Mel Tuckers out of 5.

Hoosiers

In 2020, the Indiana Hoosiers ended 33 years of failure by finally beating the Michigan Wolverines 38-21. Of course, it did take a global pandemic and a historically shitty Michigan team for the streak to end. Forget Mel Tucker. I give the 2020 IU victory over UM five out of five of the most fraudy-fraud-fraudsters there is.

2020 ain’t happening today.

Michigan 31, Indiana 3