Essentials

WHAT	Michigan at Indiana
WHERE	Memorial Stadium Bloomington, IN
WHEN	Noon ET Saturday, Nov. 7
THE LINE	Michigan -3 (Vegas) Michigan -2 (Bill C.)
TELEVISION	FS1 PBP: Joe Davis Analyst: Brock Huard
TICKETS	not this year
WEATHER	~70 degrees, sunny

Overview

Oh, c'mon.

Due to COVID-19 quarantine protocols, the entire on-air crew of Fox Sports’ college football pregame show, “Big Noon Kickoff,” will be off the air this Saturday: https://t.co/JOddPyapLn

— Nicole Auerbach ? (@NicoleAuerbach) November 5, 2020

We won't get the usual pregame analysis but at least these games are aesthetically pleasin--oh C'MON.

Indiana will wear these “Salute to Service” uniforms for Saturday’s game with Michigan pic.twitter.com/q0VhfaAWkw

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 5, 2020

The troops deserve better.

Anyway, the Wolverines limp into Bloomington to take on 13th-ranked Indiana, which has started the season with an improbable overtime upset of Penn State and exceedingly probable win over Rutgers. While they haven't always looked great, the Hoosier have found a way, and they already have an iconic moment this season.

Both Vegas and SP+ favor Michigan by 2-3 points. The bad news is it's harder to play the underdog card for motivation/jokes. The good news is Michigan has sucked as an underdog anyway. They also haven't lost to IU in my lifetime.

[Hit THE JUMP for who knows, honestly]

Run Offense vs Indiana

getting the edge on Micah McFadden (47) requires creativity [Patrick Barron]

Well, hello there.

To begin, their DT situation is worse than ours, though I'd have taken the Stanford transfer, DT #51 Jovan Swan (+5.5/-2), including over all three returning "starters", #98 Jerome Johnson (+3/-3), an active muck-a-muck without much power, and #94 Demarcus Elliott (+3.5/-9) who's a case study for bad leverage. ...

IU was also rotating (or starting) DT #50 Sio Nofoagatoto'a (+3.5/-4.5), who was too easy to push off the ball. They'll sprinkle in #55 CJ Person (+0/-5 on like ten snaps) and #91 Jeramy Passmore, who's DE-sized but spunky.

Seth wasn't particularly impressed by the rest of the defensive front, either. The standout among the front seven is linebacker Micah McFadden, who had Mouton-like charting in an up-and-down PSU game. He's got great burst but sometimes uses it to blow up the wrong gap. The other linebacker spot, meanwhile...

The other spot is the defense's big weakness. While the DTs will get shoved around, they'll also do a good job of that light defensive holding that doesn't get called but keeps the linebackers free to flow. These invitations were routinely turned down by #4 Cam Jones (+8/-18.5, +0/-5.5 coverage) the new starting WILL. Jones is clearly a miscast hybrid safety—and even plays the SAM role if they have cause to go to a real 4-3—since he's pretty good at the Viper stuff.

...seems bad. Their best guy up front-ish other than McFadden is probably their hybrid space player, Bryant Fitzgerald, a high school teammate of Brandon Peters who's played well as Marcelino Ball's injury replacement.

Penn State moved the ball on IU at around five yards per carry on massive volume (52 carries) that included a large number of quarterback keeps. Rutgers posted 5.5 YPC when you remove sacks even though lead back Isiah Pacheco mustered only 24 yards on nine carries—they, too, kept their QB involved in the run game.

You can see what I'm getting at. After Michigan struggled to run the ball in a conventional matter against MSU, they should probably get Joe Milton more involved on the ground Saturday. Utilizing the speedsters on the edge again would be nice after that largely disappeared from the gameplan despite great success, too.

KEY MATCHUP: JOSH GATTIS vs JIM HARBAUGH, MAYBE? Whatever kept Michigan from doing the speed in space stuff last week, let's hope they've sorted that out. While IU is pliable up the gut, much of the success from PSU and Rutgers came via their quarterback, and Michigan's best runs this season have mostly been quick hitters to the outside. 

Pass Offense vs Indiana

Tiawan Mullen impresses even when allowing touchdowns [Fuller]

Indiana has one of the best young corners in the country in Tiawan Mullen, who's getting the "don't throw at that guy" treatment as a sophomore. The starting safeties have been good. So has Mullen's counterpart. The issues come when you get past those guys, according to Seth:

#23 Jaylin Williams (+5/-0, +4/-1 cov) has been awesome so far, though his listed 6-0 height is a lie of at least two inches, and his weight is probably inflated too. He had a good Rutgers game too so he gets the dangerman star. As with the safeties there's a big dropoff from the starting pair to their shared backup, #2 Reese Taylor (+4/-4, +0/-6 cov). Taylor was fine on their few nickel snaps, when he went outside with Mullen moving into the slot. Things broke down when Mullen sat out a drive for a foot issue.

Michigan hasn't thrown much to their outside receivers this year and that doesn't project to change this weekend. IU's safeties had some (understandable) issues guarding Pat Freiermuth, so maybe this is the game Erick All busts out after his disappointing start.

The offensive line needs a bounce-back performance after a mistake-plagued MSU game. Tom Allen's defense is going to consistently bring heat and where that heat comes from isn't going to be consistent—missed pickups will result in a linebacker or defensive back hitting Milton at full speed.

KEY MATCHUP: THE INTERIOR LINE vs ALL SORTS OF BLITZES. Pickups are going to be critical. It's not going to be easy to predict where pressure is coming from on any given down, so the line—especially Andrew Vastardis—has to adjust pre-snap and communicate without major errors. If Allen sees a weakness up front, he's going to be ruthless with his blitzes.

Run Defense vs Indiana

tough yards are about all Stevie Scott can manage behind this line [Barron]

The Indiana running game has been a slog despite the presence of a mobile quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. and a quality running back in Stevie Scott III. With sacks removed, the Hoosiers ran for:

• 44 yards on 25 carries (1.8 YPC) against PSU
• 149 yards on 36 carries (4.1 YPC) against Rutgers

They have a couple issues. One is predictability. BiSB noted a pattern against PSU:

Indiana has some offensive tendencies, and they are not great tendencies. These were the first play of each of Indiana's first 11 drives, before desperation time:

• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard
• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard
• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard
• Pass
• Stevie Scott run: 2 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 3 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 2 yards
• Pass
• Pass to Stevie Scott: 3 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 3 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard

It's at this point I'm obligated to note their offensive coordinator, Nick Sheridan, was a quarterback at Michigan. He's been too willing to ram Scott into the defense on standard downs and hasn't incorporated Penix, who has six non-sack carries for 23 yards and two touchdowns, into the running game until the offense gets in goal-to-go situations.

The other problem is the offensive line. Indiana ranks 100th in line yards (2.01) and 103rd in opportunity rate (30.0%) even though they've been decent at avoiding negative-yardage plays. In other words, Scott is running into a wall two yards downfield, and anything gained beyond that point requires him to do some heavy lifting. As Seth noted in yesterday's FFFF, it's not exactly a strength on strength matchup:

The offense has two less fixable areas weakness, neither of which Michigan is in great shape to exploit. The first is the strength of their interior offensive line. They graduated the mauling RG you remember for injuring Winovich right before the 2018 Game, as well as a center who was a perennial Rimington Watch Lister. IU has been trying to work in more outside zone because their interior guys are bull-rushable, but they're not particularly agile either. When they play Ohio State the Hoosiers are doomed; Michigan's DTs however haven't shown the ability to dominate weak offensive linemen, and the Wolverines haven't surprised anyone with their 3-3-5 attacks since Labor Day weekend of 2017. Indiana's tackles are good enough in the run game to be a problem if Michigan keeps trying to use Kwity and Aidan inside. If Kemp et al. can't hold up to doubles here it's time for cyans.

Even if Michigan is more Rutgers than Penn State up front, though, IU should have a hard time consistently moving the ball on the ground unless they break out some schemes we haven't seen Sheridan utilize yet.

KEY MATCHUP: THE DEFENSIVE TACKLES vs HOLD YOUR GROUND. If the tackles don't need help from the ends folding inside, the front seven can shut down IU's outside zones and force them into low-upside carries up the middle or abandoning the ground attack over time, which happened to IU against PSU (...eventually, but that was a playcalling problem, not a feature).

BONUS KEY MATCHUP: DON BROWN vs RUNNING THE 3-3-5 ON STANDARD DOWNS. Stop it. Stop it right now. I don't care if you have to put Nolan Rumler at nose tackle, never do that again.

Pass Defense vs Indiana

Peyton Hendershot is one of the conference's better tight ends [Fuller]

Penix is a high-level talent who's been good enough in flashes during his IU career to chase off Peyton Ramsey, an established quality starter who immediately helped Northwestern revive their offense, over the offseason. Even in what was a statistically poor outing against PSU, Penix had a passing performance Seth deemed very good—he frequently fit fastballs into tight windows only for his receivers to let him down.

His most reliable and dangerous targets are slot receiver Whop Philyor, who should draw the Dax Hill coverage assignment, and tight end Peyton Hendershot, who hasn't amassed much yardage yet this season but does have two touchdown on eight receptions. The rest of the receiver group hasn't stood out, though there's a crushing caveat:

"The wide receivers fortunately did not look like the world-beaters IU always seems to turn up," would be my famous last words if I was dumb enough to say such a thing. Without taking anything away from secret five-star factory Michigan State, Indiana's WR room was at least considered an upgrade on East Lansing's, and looked like it against common opponent Rutgers. PSU got handsy, especially against Whop, but even with the flurry of "refs-2"s that IU suffered in my charting, longtime up-and-comer WR #3 Ty Fryfogle was responsible for as much bad as good in the passing game, and is not a blocker. He was a very effective receiver last year, matching Ronnie Bell's YPT (10.6) and Fryfogle's 72% catch rate bettered Ronnie's by 11 points, albeit on a much lower target rate. The other three guys, tall WR #13 Miles Marshall, fast-ish WR #2 Jacolby Hewitt, and playmaking freshman #18 Javon Swinton are all at least 6'2" and rotated evenly. None were getting much separation from PSU's corners, neither of whom gave up 200 yards to an MSU freshman recently.

These receivers are tall-ish and capable of running in a straight line; after last week, you're not going to find a Michigan fan confident in the defense's ability to make those guys look like anything less than the Greatest Show on Turf-era Rams. Gemon Green can't cover both outside receivers on his own, so either Don Brown is going to have to provide more help over the top or a non-Green corner needs to play a lot better than what M put on the field last week.

If Michigan is able to cover receivers for longer than a half-beat, the pass rush should have itself a day. IU's quick-passing scheme keeps them from taking sacks on standard downs, but when they get into passing situations, they take sacks on nearly 10% of their dropbacks, per Football Outsiders. PSU recorded three sacks and harassed Penix throughout their matchup. Seth:

Since Penix is a left-handed passer, the right tackle is the blindside. That is contextually significant in grading RT #76 Matt Bedford, a clearly talented true sophomore who was alright (+2.5/-3) as a run blocker but –5 in pass pro. Bedford was good enough as a true freshman last year that longtime starter Coy Cronk left for Iowa, but Bedford struggled in protection against PSU, if not to the degree of his mirror. The sad unfortunate tasked with containing All-American candidate Shaka Toney went to LT Caleb Jones (+4/-4, –11 pass pro). Jones is a huge ("362"), boxy slab of beef who's got some agility that appears in the run game, but not enough to keep up with Toney, who had Jones's number all game.

Paye and Hutchinson are either going to have multi-sack outings or more frustrating close calls as the ball gets out in a blink.

KEY MATCHUP: THE SECOND CORNER vs GETTING BURNED TO A CRISP. I don't feel the need to explain this.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Charles Campbell has connected on all five of his field goal attempts this season, while Haydon Whitehead is averaging 40 yards without giving up a single return on ten punts. Junior Reese Taylor has 21 yards on two punt returns, so he may have a little pop; nothing of note has occurred on IU's kickoff returns.

While Quinn Nordin hopefully stabilized Michigan's placekicking last week, punting was ugly—Will Hart averaged fewer yards than Brad Robbins despite the latter being the designated coffin corner guy. Hart isn't getting nearly the distance he did last year (about 6.5 yards fewer on average) and that's with a couple fortunate bounce-and-rolls.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• a receiver you've never heard of is running behind the entire defense
• Stevie Scott isn't hitting a wall of meat 2-3 yards downfield
• the offensive line can't get push up front

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• a corner other than Gemon Green breaks up a pass
• Penix doesn't have time to throw downfield anyway
• the offensive gameplan looks a lot like Minnesota and nothing like Michigan State

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for ChaosTeam, -1 for Haven't Lost to IU in My Lifetime, +1 for Last Week Was a Brutal Wakeup Call, +1 for Every Deep Throw Will Strike the Fear of God in My Heart, +1 for IU's Receivers Are Better Than MSU's, -1 for Nick Sheridan Might Be Young Mike DeBord)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Let's Avoid a Program Collapse, -1 for Or Maybe We Should Get It Over With?, +1 for NEVER LOST TO THEM IN MY LIFETIME, +1 for Vague Hopes of Salvaging the Season, +1 for It'd Be Real Nice if Life Distractions Were Fun Again)

Loss will cause me to… start sending fan mail to Joe Brady

Win will cause me to… hold off on sending fan mail to Joe Brady for now

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

It's a Michigan-Indiana game. Despite last year's respite, all I feel comfortable predicting in this stupid, chaotic season is, yes, stupid chaos. I could see each offense failing to move the ball or exploding for big points and have no clue what combination we'll see tomorrow.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:

• a non-Whop Indiana WR surpasses 100 yards
• the game swings on Michigan special teams failures
• Indiana, 32-30