Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback.

Depth Chart

With Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins off to the NFL, data here is suddenly thin. So is experience. Michigan does not have a scholarship safety with junior eligibility; they have just two guys in their third year on campus. That's a departure from the Hawkins Dynasty, which spanned from 834 to 1160 AD and saw Michigan repulse barbarian encroachment from Manchuria.

Things aren't totally bereft. Michigan started a true freshman in The Game last year and thing went ok; he's back, and so is the guy who started next to Hawkins for the bulk of the year. (Hill was basically a viper/leo/hero spacebacker.) There's a little experienced depth, and Michigan made hay with safety recruits after the OSU breakthrough.

You still wonder about a safety position without so much as a scholarship junior.

SAFETY: TOO YOUNG TO BORE?

RATING: 3

catch the baaaall [Bryan Fuller]

I didn't have much of an opinion on RJ MOTEN last year and it turns out Seth didn't either:

RJ MOTEN

Game	Plus	Minus	Tot	Notes
WMU	4.5	1	3.5	I like him.
Washington	1	3	-2	Mostly ranged high. Blamed him for the one big cov bust.
NIU	2	1	1	NIU was heavy so this was just a nickel role.
Rutgers	3	5	-2	Boring when not asked to be a DE.
Wisconsin	0.5		0.5	Platonically boring.
Nebraska	1	2	-1	Not blaming for the illegal TD. Good and boring.
Northwestern	3	6	-3	Main culprit on the TD. Also on the 3rd and 16 screen.
MSU	9	2	7	Part of the reason there weren't more points. CATCH THAT!
Indiana	0	2	-2	Barrett got his snaps, two bad events.
Penn State			0	DNC, but got the final lick.
Maryland	6	4	2	Not boring enough. Wasn't making these mistakes in Sept.
OSU	2	4	-2	One big drop, one big coverage mistake, one redzone stuff.
Iowa	3	1.5	1.5	Generally boring.
Georgia	3	2	1	Good and boring until he had to do LB things late.

Freshman safeties grading out around zero is fine, especially when the notes indicate that some of the minuses were because he was being asked to do things out of safety purview. Zero-ish means that they're in the right spot to dissuade throws, and that's a year one win. That's also why there are six editions of the world "boring" above, although one is actually "not boring." For the record around here, "boring" is a word of praise for a safety, one born of many exciting times where a Michigan safety would have his own private rumspringa when he was badly needed to tackle someone.

Moten only did that once last year, but it was a doozy:

deep safety

Ironically, the gfycat algorithm that throws together some words to come up with a unique url went with "glass boring liger" on this very play.

Aside from this, Moten functioned as a centerfielder when challenged. He had an excellent interception against MSU:

He also had two crucial drops in this role. The first was again against MSU:

S on the 44 yard line

The second is far less painful because it came in a game Michigan won 42-27 but was just as mindbendingly horrific in the moment. But even these drops are probably good for our projection purposes. One thing our clips do not have is a single example of Moten getting burned over the top. Aidan Hutchinson may have something to do with this but also if you can remember back to the dawn of prehistory when Brad Hawkins was getting his first playing time there were multiple 70 yard touchdowns that looked like confusion. Moten got stuck in a new defense with complicated zone coverages and did not blow anything—or at least not anything that was punished—all year. And when folks tried to test him he got over the top and got his hands on the ball. Now just, you know, catch it.

Moten has more to his game than just centerfield. He was occasionally sent off the edge as part of Michigan's exotic blitz packages and was able to power through running backs:

to bottom of line

When called on in run support he delivered—except for rumspringa, yes. His stick on JSN late in the Ohio State game forced one of their infinite converted fourth downs late, and he could take on and defeat WR blocks fairly easily:

That's a surprise for a guy who never seemed like a thumper but PFF noted that he's a big dude for a safety in the process of naming him their #6 S for the upcoming draft:

Moten is one big boy who sneaks up on you with how physical he can be. You would never guess from watching him nimbly navigate through coverage assignments that he’s a hefty 6-foot, 221 pounds. The fluidity he plays with at that size is really a sight to behold. That’s some throwback safety size, bigger than even a lot of starting NFL linebackers.

It wasn't 100% here. Moten's angles could be a little off. He got burned on a screen against Northwestern by going upfield of a block when he should have been mitigating damage, and there was a flare screen that was looking dodgy in the State game that Hutchinson batted down.  That's standard for young safeties. Moten was one and can no longer be one. Last year he got to clean up for Dax Hill:

This year he might have to be him, sort of. Moten isn't going to take the nickel job if and when a safety is assigned to it; that'll be his running buddy.

Moten has NFL level measurables and size; he's already established as a guy who it's hard to get over the top of; run support is probably going to be a strength. He'll at least be an average Big Ten safety, with considerable upside. Not upside we're likely to see since folks will be trying to avoid testing him.

fine, it was fine [Bryan Fuller]

ROD MOORE [recruiting profile] started the Ohio State game last year as a three-star true freshman and that was completely fine.

Speaking of reinforcements, Rod Moore started against Ohio State, didn’t suck.

Yup, didn’t suck. Moreover the true freshman showed the kind of speed and athleticism that Macdonald’s predecessor could have used in this matchup. When he was screaming down at Olave like this I want to imagine one of those coaches from western Ohio was using his seatmate’s shoulders to hop up and down yelling “WE TOLD YOU TO OFFER THIS GUY DAY! DAAAAAY!!!!”

He wasn't actively good. He was fine. There were other incidents where he'd clearly be covering someone he shouldn't have been or he'd get too aggressive and give something up:

He was not an instant thunderbolt from the safety gods. But also he was a three-star true freshman who was not a walking disaster zone. So maybe he was?

Now we're going to try to discuss what's good about Rod Moore, but I don't know. Safeties are always hard to talk about, especially safeties who are just dipping their toes in. Moore got in some playing time last year but it was scattered snaps until the last handful of games, and in those scattered snaps we mostly know that no one dunked on him for a blitheringly wide open touchdown. (The one TD he gave up was only sort of open.) He has certainly hinted that he's going to be a guy who is excellent when Michigan needs cleanup in aisle edge:

S to top

He was a sure tackler underneath when he didn't get too big for his britches and occasionally blitzed to good effect. He's versatile, capable of playing both back and up. Clinkscale:

His knowledge of the game — he’s like a coach out there. … his knack and his instincts on the field will continue to push all of them together. Like I said, having him at nickel, too, helps us get our best players on the field.

The "like a coach out there" was echoed by multiple insiders, as aggregated by Alex:

What we're hearing: The known quantities are still known, and they're still pretty good. Rod Moore has gotten continued effusive praise, with Clinkscale dropping one of my favorite quotes about Moore as a freshman grasping the scheme compared to his compatriots: "except for Rod Moore, he was different". One insider report says that some in the program think Moore is a future NFL Draft candidate ($) and another named him as one of the least mistake-prone players on the defense ($).

Moore's main advantage may not be anything he does physically but his ability to process what's happening pre-snap and get Michigan's adjustments right. This is a key thing, and something Michigan's defense was good at a year ago. Michigan was middling at preventing chunk plays but pretty good at holding those down. Only 11.3% of their ten yard plays got to 30+. That was fifth in the Big Ten but closer to a quartet of teams hovering at just over 10% than seventh place, let alone further down. That's a Hawkins effect, and it's one of the worries about this year's defense: what if they just dorf it more because they don't have a leviathan born before time back there?

If anyone's going to prevent that it sounds like it's Moore. His impact may be better measured by the RPS-3 events that don't happen than any individual play he makes.

BACKUPS

[Patrick Barron]

Michigan's top option after the starters is redshirt sophomore MAKARI PAIGE [recruiting profile], who saw significant time as a freshman out of necessity and then receded to the background. This is reasonable. Paige was a stick insect as a freshman and was only on the field because Michigan had no other options after one of the starters got dinged; he was never supposed to be plug and play. He wasn't:

Paige had a rough go. Bateman took a slant from eight yards to a chunk play by cutting back outside Paige, who could not tackle on the catch. Ibrahim was able to hop outside him for a 20-yard chunk of his own. Paige looked like a true freshman thrown in before he's ready, which he was.

He picked up a –7.5 in the 2020 Minnesota game for losing leverage repeatedly on Mo Ibrahim. Not only was he a freshman stick safety he was being deployed as more or less a SAM, and that could only go one way:

#7 on 20 yard line to bottom

He also looked a bit like a baby deer in coverage:

We should not let this color our vision of Paige, because plenty of guys come out of high school unready to play college football; most of them aren't forced into a big role in their first game on campus.

Paige went into hibernation mode last year, and Moore's quick ascension would usually be a sign that it's getting late early, but Paige made a camp chatter comeback. This offseason sounds like the one where he turned the corner to be a guy Michigan can rely on. Harbaugh named him one of 74 defensive starters:

Makari Paige has had a really good camp coming off of a really good spring.

And Clinkscale concurred:

Makari has definitely, in the spring, continued to grow so far. That was always our question: How will he continue to grow in the fall? So far, he has not taken a step back. … You saw in the spring game, Makari went out and played corner because we were down some guys because we split up the team. We’re going to teach everybody in that room to know every position. Now, will the skill level give them the ability to play it in a game? Maybe, maybe not. But can I get out of a game putting Makari at corner, for example? Yes.

Spring hype is one thing, especially with Moore out. But Paige popped up twice in Alex's football bits posts, with reports he was running with the ones confirmed by the Harbaugh depth chart.

Even if optimism is warranted for Paige I'm not getting on the "maybe he can play corner" train. Paige looks like a deep safety and only a deep safety, a guy with straight line speed and plenty of height but without the kind of agility or tackling ability that would make you want to put him in the slot. His role will be to set up next to Moten when Moore gets rolled down into the box.

Walk-on and guy with a legendary last name CADEN KOLESAR is next up. Kolesar was explicitly named as Michigan's "number four safety and number one special teams player" in the Harbaugh depth chart dump. Here's his insult-to-injury interception late in the Big Ten championship game:

He also had a push-up contest this offseason.

We don't have any actually data here but Kolesar will probably be fine in a Jordan Kovacs way if forced into serious duty. He's been around the block, he's a valuable special teamer, he's a program legacy. He's not the biggest or fastest guy but can be counted on to be in the right spot and that's like 83% of playing safety at the college level. This space is relatively sanguine about his spot on the depth chart.

Redshirt sophomore QUINTEN JOHNSON [recruiting profile] started to get a little bit of backup time last year. Unfortunately his most memorable play was the Penn State fake punt on which he got put in man coverage got utterly lost on, which you will find in the next post. There was a report that he "showed out" during a fall scrimmage, so he's still in with a chance to do something here. Would be advised to get started now.

Johnson is advised to get moving now because three freshmen round things out here. KEON SABB [recruiting profile] and ZEKE BERRY [recruiting profile] were post-OSU-breakthrough pickups who come highly touted, and DAMANI DENT [recruiting profile] snagged co-sleeper of the year from Seth (along with slam dunk Amorion Walker.) Dent has not generated chatter yet and tweeted something that sounded like an injury of at least moderate severity so a redshirt would seem to be in the offing.

Sabb and Berry, on the other hand, are creating buzz. SABB, a Clemson decommit and composite top 100 recruit, enrolled early and has drawn praise for his grasp of the playbook:

Keon has done a great job. He’s got probably the hardest job of the bunch, of those four, because he has to know both safeties. He knows what he’s doing, it’s now just taking that step forward on the field and applying it. … he keeps getting better every week and every day. … he has to know what everybody’s doing, make all the checks. And for him being a freshman, I think he’s doing a great job.

Couple that with his 6'2", 208-pound frame and you've got a potential box safety or spacebacker. Just maybe not this year, even with the above praise. Sabb didn't really settle on football until late in his high school career and does not yet have a defined role in the defense. A bit of camp chatter from Josh Henschke:

Keon Sabb has been all over the field so far. Blitzing the quarterback, playing outside. While he doesn't have Dax Hill's coverage abilities just yet, he is another guy that will certainly see the field.

That's good, and also it suggests Michigan is running him through a bunch of different spots to see what his best fit is. They are not preparing him to do one thing right now. Meanwhile, despite being an excellent athlete he dropped from a five star to just inside the top 100 largely because of the "what exactly do you do here" question. (We don't think this is a didn't-drop-enough situation, FWIW, as some of the recruiting services bumped him back up some after determining he was not actually a five star.)

BERRY, meanwhile, did not enroll early so has had less time to generate hype. Even so he has achieved:

Among the freshmen, Zeke Berry hype is starting to pick up as the comparisons to Rod Moore continue. The phrase "real deal" was used to describe Berry ($) and Clinkscale said he's "especially performing to a level where you can see his instincts. You can see why we recruited him and what he’s gonna be able to do".

Berry isn't as big as Sabb but he's only about ten pounds adrift, and depending on who you listen to he's one of the best athletes in this year's recruiting class. He, too, will be in the Next Dax discussion:

He has a muscular body type to add mass. Strong lower body that enables him to generate good power and burst in his transition out of his back pedal to break on the ball and get interceptions or close on ball-carriers to make tackles. He has loose hips along with good agility where he is light on his feet and shows good closing speed. He is a multi-position player in high-school who shows very good football instinct.

Harbaugh compared him to Rod Moore. Comparing a guy to a guy who isn't his final form yet is always frustrating because I don't really know what "Rod Moore" means yet, but since Moore did the above things as a true freshman that sounds pretty ok.

Both guys should drop into scattered games and get test drives as the Next Dax Hill. Your guess is as good as mine as to who might pop out ahead. A dollar says one of these two is the starting nickel next year.