Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense. 5Q5A: Defense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Year	Margin	Int +	Fumb +	Sacks +	Int -	Fumb -	Sacks -
2007	0.15 (41st)	14	15	2.46(33rd)	14	13	2.17 (67th)
2008	-.83 (104th)	9	11	2.42(33rd)	12	18	1.83 (57th)
2009	-1.00 (115th)	11	5	1.83(68th)	15	13	2.33 (83rd)
2010	-0.77(109th)	12	7	1.38(98th)	15	14	0.85(10th)
2011	+0.54 (25th)	9	20	2.31 (29th)	16	6	1.38 (33rd)
2012	-0.69 (99th)	7	11	1.69 (69th)	19	8	1.38 (28th)
2013	+0.38(33rd)	17	9	1.9 (64th)	13	8	2.77 (109th)
2014	-1.33 (124th)	5	5	2.4 (49th)	18	8	2.2 (63rd)
2015	-0.31 (92nd)	10	2	2.5 (32nd)	10	6	1.4 (28th)
2016	+0.54 (24th)	13	6	3.54(5th)	7	5	1.69 (39th)
2017	-0.31 (90th)	10	7	3.23(8th)	10	11	2.77 (111th)
2018	+0.38 (35th)	11	6	10.5% (3rd)	9	3	5.4% (43rd)
2019	+0	9	11	9.0% (16th)	9	11	6.1% (61st)

Michigan was dead even a year ago and shouldn't be expecting a major swing to the good or bad. You would expect QB turnovers to increase with a new starter who's just a sophomore. One point in Michigan's favor: despite having outstanding pass protection their sack rate allowed was middling, which goes back to QB play. They probably won't be facing a big spike in QB pressure events that are the most frequent source of TOs.

[After the JUMP: one ominous switch]

Position Switches

your starting SAM [Patrick Barron]

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. Flipping sides of the ball is very bad. Sliding an OT to OG is probably fine. Sliding an OG to OT… might be bad. Flipping ILB slots is nothing.

One big deal and not much else. In descending order of concern:

Sammy Faustin to CB. Safety to corner is usually a move that signals a lack of faith in the corner group and Faustin was completely off the radar last year. He appears to be on the two deep.

Ben VanSumeren to SAM. This is an offense to defense flip that is no doubt driven by Gattis's fullback aversion. VanSumeren is the nominal starter at the position, which would be a real problem if SAM wasn't a luxury position that doesn't need to play at all.

Mike Sainristil to outside WR(?). This is a projection and not certain but it speaks to Michigan's lack of depth on the outside in a post-Nico world.

Various minor moves. Ronnie Bell to outside WR, Josh Ross back to WLB, Carlo Kemp (probably) back to three-tech, Julius Welschof to DT: meh. Bell's demonstrated he can play the outside. Ross and Kemp are moving back to spots they're better at, and Welschof was a long term project who we were hoping would balloon up and move inside.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios: Injury scenarios do not have to be extreme for a team with very little experienced depth at QB, WR, LB, CB, and S. This is a very young team; there are no nonconference cupcakes; it's going to be a weird, weird year. Probably not weird enough that MSU, Rutgers, or Maryland is going to do anything about it, and probably not weird enough that Michigan gets skunked the rest of the year. 4-5 could happen.

Best Case: 7-2. Wisconsin and OSU are going to be tough outs, and even if they get one of those—likely Wisconsin—someone else is going to be the beneficiary of a Young Team Does Dumb Stuff And Loses spectacular.

Final Verdict

Note that Michigan plays the projected top two teams in the West and rematches are avoided for the bonus game. A season that doesn't see them win the division title will likely pit them against Iowa or Purdue.

Conference
10/24	@ Minnesota	Tossup
10/31	Michigan State	Must win
11/7	@ Indiana	Lean to win
11/14	Wisconsin	Lean to loss
11/21	@ Rutgers	Must win
11/28	Penn State	Tossup
11/10	Maryland	Must win
11/17	@ Ohio State	Likely loss
11/24	Bonus game	Lean to win
Absent:	Nebraska, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue/Iowa

 Assuming these games all get played and COVID discipline is a wash this looks like 6-3. Pretty big assumptions in the previous sentence.